Got%OnIt
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Ligue 1·Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT

StrasbourgvParis Saint Germain

Strasbourg
23%
Draw
21%
Paris Saint Germain
56%

Got%OnIt gives Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.2 goals for Strasbourg and 2.0 for Paris Saint Germain.
  • Strasbourg won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.0 a game.
  • Paris Saint Germain won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Strasbourg are 11th of 18 after 6 games; Paris Saint Germain are 6th.
  • Strasbourg have won 2 and lost 3; Paris Saint Germain have won 3 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Strasbourg

  • L1–2at Nice11 Oct
  • L1–2at Paris FC19 Sept
  • D1–1v Monaco12 Sept
  • W6–2at Estac Troyes6 Sept
  • W2–1v Lens29 Aug
  • L0–4at Marseille21 Aug

Paris Saint Germain

  • W3–1v Le Mans10 Oct
  • W2–1at Marseille20 Sept
  • W1–0at Stade Brestois 2913 Sept
  • L1–2v Monaco4 Sept
  • D2–2at Lille28 Aug
  • D2–2at Rennes23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 567, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T15:15:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Paris Saint Germain)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Strasbourg)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:39 PDT971 finished Ligue 1 matches (967 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationStrasbourg 2 absent regulars · Paris Saint Germain 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:08 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Strasbourg

6.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 2 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Rennes +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptL1A Paris FCL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctL1A NiceL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctL1A Rennes+8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 19 in the squad); 54 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: S. Nanasi (M) — reason unknown; I. Doukoure (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.7 CONFIRMED

Strasbourg: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Dário EssugoM7373—
F. JörgensenG90900' Denmark, 12.9 d before
G. AntwiD9090—
OsoD9090—
Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD9090—
Diogo SousaM6363—
Gessime Yassine · regularF9090—
C. HarderF6363—
S. Amo-AmeyawF7373—
P. DiopM9090—
J. MitchellD76859' Costa Rica, 12.6 d before

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 9 minutes — J. Mitchell (9' Costa Rica, 12.6 d before) CONFIRMED

Paris Saint Germain

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Barcelona +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.8 d before (A Manchester City); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H Barcelona) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptL1A MarseilleW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctL1H Le MansW 3–1counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLA Manchester CityNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLH Barcelona+3.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctL1H Lyon+8.2 d
  • Fri 30 OctL1A Le Havre+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 60 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Dembele (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 9 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 76.9 CONFIRMED

Paris Saint Germain: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
João Neves · regularM58580' Portugal, 12.9 d before
Pedro FernándezM5858—
BeraldoM5959—
M. Safonov · regularG9090—
L. HernándezD9090—
A. Hakimi · regularD7272—
I. ZabarnyiD9018090' Ukraine, 11.9 d before
M. AklioucheF9015060' France, 11.9 d before
Ferran TorresF9090—
M. GodtsF597920' Belgium, 11.9 d before
L. DigneD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 364 minutes — K. Kvaratskhelia (90' Georgia, 11.9 d before); D. Doué (18' France, 11.9 d before); I. Zabarnyi (90' Ukraine, 11.9 d before); M. Akliouche (60' France, 11.9 d before); Vitinha (86' Portugal, 12.9 d before); M. Godts (20' Belgium, 11.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Strasbourg23%15%14%
Draw21%18%16%
Paris Saint Germain56%67%70%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 31 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Paris Saint Germain a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (56% vs 70%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Strasbourg

  • Strasbourg: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.0 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • L1–2at Nice11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Paris FC19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Monaco12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W6–2at Estac Troyes6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Lens29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–4at Marseille21 Aug · in model evidence

Paris Saint Germain

  • Paris Saint Germain: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.7 and conceded 1.2 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W3–1v Le Mans10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Marseille20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Stade Brestois 2913 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Monaco4 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Lille28 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Rennes23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal13%
2 goals20%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals12%
6 or more11%
Over 1.584%
Over 2.563%
Over 3.541%
Both teams score61%

Strasbourg

Expected goals1.23
Scores at least once71%
Scores 2 or more35%
Clean sheet13%

Paris Saint Germain

Expected goals2.02
Scores at least once87%
Scores 2 or more60%
Clean sheet29%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season11th v 6th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Strasbourg

11th of 18 · 7 pts · W2 D1 L3 from 6 games · scored 11, conceded 12

Home W1 D1 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2) · Away W1 D0 L3 (scored 8, conceded 10)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LLDWW (most recent last)

Paris Saint Germain

6th of 18 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L1 from 6 games · scored 11, conceded 8

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 3) · Away W2 D2 L0 (scored 7, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games WWWLD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 10 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes)
56%
70%
YES on Paris Saint Germain to WinParis Saint Germain wins in 90 minutes
56%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 5,289 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Strasbourg to win (90 minutes)
23%
14%
YES on Strasbourg to WinStrasbourg wins in 90 minutes
23%15¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,156 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
21%
16%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
21%17¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 354 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawStrasbourg or Paris Saint Germain wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
79%85¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,037 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Paris Saint Germain to WinStrasbourg wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
44%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Strasbourg to WinParis Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
77%88¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,247 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
98%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 16,805 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%3¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
84%
90%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
84%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,294 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
16%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 910 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
63%
74%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
63%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,083 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
37%28¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 873 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
41%
53%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
41%53¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
59%48¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
23%
33%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
23%34¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 502 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
77%68¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 383 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
11%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 503 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
89%84¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,086 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
61%
65%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
61%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 382 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
39%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 373 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Winning margin
Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
33%
47%
Limited evidence
YES on Paris Saint Germain to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsParis Saint Germain wins by 2 goals or more
33%48¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Paris Saint Germain to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsStrasbourg wins or the match is drawn, or Paris Saint Germain wins by 1 goal · Paris Saint Germain not by 2+ goals
67%54¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 728 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Paris Saint Germain to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsParis Saint Germain wins by 3 goals or more
16%29¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 877 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Paris Saint Germain to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsStrasbourg wins or the match is drawn, or Paris Saint Germain wins by 2 goals or fewer · Paris Saint Germain not by 3+ goals
84%74¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 581 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Strasbourg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Strasbourg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsStrasbourg wins by 2 goals or more
9%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 898 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Strasbourg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsParis Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn, or Strasbourg wins by 1 goal · Strasbourg not by 2+ goals
91%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 818 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Strasbourg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Strasbourg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsStrasbourg wins by 3 goals or more
3%4¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,013 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Strasbourg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsParis Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn, or Strasbourg wins by 2 goals or fewer · Strasbourg not by 3+ goals
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 22.9% · draw 21.4% · away 55.6%
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.02
Strasbourg eligible matches
108 (105 with xG)
Paris Saint Germain eligible matches
108 (107 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
971 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:305, 2026:54
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 967 of 971 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Ligue 1; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • xG stored for 967 of 971 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 14% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's home probability is 9% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's draw probability is 5% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

StrasbourgOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctNiceaway1–20.56–1.34L
19 SeptParis FCaway1–2—L
12 SeptMonacohome1–1—D
6 SeptEstac Troyesaway6–2—W
29 AugLenshome2–11.83–2.91W
21 AugMarseilleaway0–40.18–1.86L
Paris Saint GermainOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctLe Manshome3–14.33–1.49W
20 SeptMarseilleaway2–1—W
13 SeptStade Brestois 29away1–01.16–1.24W
4 SeptMonacohome1–22.32–0.51L
28 AugLilleaway2–21.44–1.27D
23 AugRennesaway2–22.16–0.87D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17RCSPSG-BTTS
61.4%64.5%−3.1 pts0.63 / 0.660.37382 / 373Comparable
seen 31 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG
55.6%70.0%−14.4 pts0.69 / 0.710.315,289 / 330Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Strasbourg to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS
22.9%13.5%+9.4 pts0.12 / 0.150.884,156 / 1,247Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-TIE
21.4%16.0%+5.4 pts0.15 / 0.170.85354 / 1,037Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG2
33.1%47.0%−13.9 pts0.46 / 0.480.54500 / 728Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG3
16.2%27.5%−11.3 pts0.26 / 0.290.74877 / 581Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Strasbourg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS2
9.2%6.0%+3.2 pts0.04 / 0.080.96898 / 818Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Strasbourg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS3
2.9%2.5%+0.4 pts0.01 / 0.040.991,013 / 300Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-1
96.1%98.0%−1.9 pts0.97 / 0.990.0316,805 / 0Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-2
83.5%89.5%−6.0 pts0.88 / 0.910.121,294 / 910Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-3
63.1%73.5%−10.4 pts0.72 / 0.750.281,083 / 873Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-4
40.9%52.5%−11.6 pts0.52 / 0.530.480 / 0Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-5
22.9%33.0%−10.1 pts0.32 / 0.340.68502 / 383Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-6
11.1%17.5%−6.4 pts0.16 / 0.190.84503 / 1,086Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:08:31.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home14.8%14.1% – 15.9%15.7%6.371022.9%+8.1 pts
1x2:draw18.1%17.3% – 19.1%19.1%5.221021.4%+3.4 pts
1x2:away67.3%65.4% – 68.1%71.4%1.401055.6%−11.6 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:24.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.571.8%71.1% – 72.5%77.5%1.29663.1%−8.8 pts
total_goals:under:2.528.2%27.5% – 28.9%30.3%3.30636.9%+8.8 pts

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:25.

Every bookmaker page used (16)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.42 · draw 5.35 · home 6.5511/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.36 · draw 5.00 · home 6.5011/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.39 · draw 5.49 · home 6.4811/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBOMatch winneraway 1.36 · draw 4.74 · home 5.6111/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
William HillMatch winneraway 1.40 · draw 4.80 · home 6.0011/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Match winneraway 1.40 · draw 5.25 · home 6.2511/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.42 · draw 5.40 · home 6.2011/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.46 · draw 5.50 · home 6.7311/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.44 · draw 5.20 · home 6.0011/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.36 · draw 5.00 · home 6.5011/10/2026, 11:37:2411/10/2026, 09:46:16
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.28 · under 2.5 3.2611/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.29 · under 2.5 3.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.28 · under 2.5 3.2611/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 3.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.29 · under 2.5 3.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:08:31.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:08 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Strasbourgok11/10/2026, 11:37:18 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Paris Saint Germainok11/10/2026, 11:37:17 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home22.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw21.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away55.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x44.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x277.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1278.6%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes61.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no38.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.596.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.53.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.583.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.516.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.563.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.536.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.540.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.559.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.522.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.577.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.511.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.588.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.570.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.529.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.534.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.565.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.512.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.587.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.53.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.596.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.586.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.513.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.559.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.540.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.532.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.567.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.514.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.585.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.52.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.597.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.59.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.590.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.522.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.577.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.544.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.555.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.566.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.533.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.583.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.516.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home29.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away70.8%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 567 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:08:31