Got%OnIt
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UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT

VillarrealvNapoli

Villarreal
46%
Draw
24%
Napoli
29%

Got%OnIt gives Villarreal a 46% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Villarreal and 1.3 for Napoli.
  • Villarreal won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 a game.
  • Napoli won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Villarreal are 21st of 36 after 1 games; Napoli are 27th.
  • Villarreal have won 0 and lost 1; Napoli have won 0 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Villarreal

  • L0–1at Real Madrid10 Oct
  • W3–1v Levante20 Sept
  • W3–1at Malaga17 Sept
  • L1–2v Real Betis14 Sept
  • L2–3at Borussia Dortmund8 Sept
  • L2–3v Deportivo La Coruna5 Sept

Napoli

  • W3–0v Frosinone10 Oct
  • D1–1at Fiorentina20 Sept
  • W1–0v Bologna13 Sept
  • L0–1v Arsenal9 Sept
  • L2–3at Inter5 Sept
  • L1–2v Como30 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Villarreal win46.1%35.2%−10.9 pts
Draw24.5%26.8%+2.3 pts
Napoli win29.4%38.1%+8.6 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.68 and 1.30). Villarreal 1.68 · Napoli 1.30 · total 2.99 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Villarreal–Napoli)

  1. 1–111.3%
  2. 2–19.3%
  3. 1–08.2%
  4. 1–27.2%
  5. 2–07.1%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Villarreal

Expected goals
1.68
Scoring vs average
×0.89
Conceding vs average
×0.99

Napoli

Expected goals
1.30
Scoring vs average
×0.99
Conceding vs average
×0.89
  • Villarreal (home): expected to score ×0.89 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.99 the average.
  • Napoli (away): expected to score ×0.99 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.89 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Villarreal
139 matches (139 with xG)
Napoli
137 matches (131 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home46.1%under-stated by 6.8 pts on 101 matches (this competition); conservative 41.1%
1x2:draw24.5%over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 17.2%
1x2:away29.4%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 106 matches (this competition); conservative 25.0%
double_chance:1x70.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x253.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes59.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no40.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.594.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.55.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.580.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.519.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.557.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.542.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.535.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.565.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.518.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.581.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.58.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.591.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.581.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.518.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.550.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.549.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.523.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.576.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.59.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.590.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.572.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.527.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.537.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.562.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.514.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.585.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.54.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.595.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.510.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.589.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.524.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.575.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.546.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.553.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.570.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.529.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.587.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.512.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.595.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.54.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home61.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away39.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.12 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 6085684797418684334 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.19 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Villarreal win46.1%46.4% ± 0.2+0.30 pts
Draw24.5%23.8% ± 0.1−0.65 pts
Napoli win29.4%29.8% ± 0.1+0.35 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.12 pts (total_goals:under:2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Villarreal
27.1% ± 0.1 (exact 27.1%)
Napoli
18.5% ± 0.1 (exact 18.6%)

Goal difference (Villarreal minus Napoli)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -40.9% ± 0.0
  4. -33.2% ± 0.1
  5. -28.4% ± 0.1
  6. -117.0% ± 0.1
  7. 023.8% ± 0.1
  8. 122.0% ± 0.1
  9. 214.0% ± 0.1
  10. 36.8% ± 0.1
  11. 42.5% ± 0.0
  12. 50.9% ± 0.0
  13. >50.3% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Villarreal 1–1 Napoli11.1% ± 0.111.3%
Villarreal 2–1 Napoli9.4% ± 0.19.3%
Villarreal 1–0 Napoli8.5% ± 0.18.2%
Villarreal 1–2 Napoli7.3% ± 0.17.2%
Villarreal 2–0 Napoli7.1% ± 0.17.1%

Expected goals (simulated)

Villarreal
mean 1.68 · variance 1.67 · ± 0.004
Napoli
mean 1.30 · variance 1.30 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move villarreal win by +1.5 pts (to 47.6%). Expected goals move −0.04 for Villarreal and −0.10 for Napoli.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Villarreal win46.1%47.6%+1.5 pts
Draw24.5%24.3%−0.1 pts
Napoli win29.4%28.1%−1.4 pts
Expected goals1.68 – 1.301.65 – 1.21−0.04 / −0.10

Data labels: CONFIRMED 134 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Villarreal

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.5% of goals share out

  • T. Buchanan M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 4.5% · effect −4.5% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice P. Gulacsi)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Napoli

Attack ×0.93 band 0.89–0.96 ESTIMATED · 14.7% of goals share out

  • F. Anguissa M Missing Fixture (Groin Injury) · share 2.3% · effect −2.3% REPORTED
  • A. Buongiorno D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Olivera D Missing Fixture (Groin Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Alisson Santos F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 6.2% · effect −6.2% REPORTED
  • A. Vergara M Missing Fixture (Calf Injury) · share 6.2% · effect −6.2% REPORTED
  • C. Favasuli D Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Meret)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move napoli win by +0.9 pts (to 30.3%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Villarreal and +0.00 for Napoli.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Villarreal win46.1%45.6%−0.5 pts
Draw24.5%24.1%−0.4 pts
Napoli win29.4%30.3%+0.9 pts
Expected goals1.68 – 1.301.66 – 1.31−0.03 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 134 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Villarreal rate ×0.98 band 0.66–1.55

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution -0.002 (-0.010 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.10505050505050506 · contribution 0.001 (-0.007 to 0.009) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Napoli rate ×1.00 band 0.67–1.61

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.10505050505050506 · contribution -0.002 (-0.009 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move napoli win by −0.8 pts (to 28.6%). Expected goals move −0.07 for Villarreal and −0.09 for Napoli.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Villarreal win46.1%46.8%+0.7 pts
Draw24.5%24.5%+0.1 pts
Napoli win29.4%28.6%−0.8 pts
Expected goals1.68 – 1.301.62 – 1.21−0.07 / −0.09

Data labels: CONFIRMED 134 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Villarreal

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.5% of goals share out

  • T. Buchanan M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 4.5% · effect −4.5% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice P. Gulacsi)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Napoli

Attack ×0.93 band 0.89–0.96 ESTIMATED · 14.7% of goals share out

  • F. Anguissa M Missing Fixture (Groin Injury) · share 2.3% · effect −2.3% REPORTED
  • A. Buongiorno D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Olivera D Missing Fixture (Groin Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Alisson Santos F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 6.2% · effect −6.2% REPORTED
  • A. Vergara M Missing Fixture (Calf Injury) · share 6.2% · effect −6.2% REPORTED
  • C. Favasuli D Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Meret)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Villarreal rate ×0.98 band 0.66–1.55

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution -0.002 (-0.010 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.10505050505050506 · contribution 0.001 (-0.007 to 0.009) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Napoli rate ×1.00 band 0.67–1.61

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.10505050505050506 · contribution -0.002 (-0.009 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Villarreal win46.1%40.3%−5.8 pts
Draw24.5%26.2%+1.8 pts
Napoli win29.4%33.5%+4.0 pts
Expected goals—1.38 – 1.23−0.30 / −0.07

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 188 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)R. Højlund 28% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Villarreal

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 92% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
G. Mikautadze F23.6% ± 0.13.1% ± 0.10.27 ± 0.00238%
Alberto Moleiro M22.1% ± 0.12.6% ± 0.10.25 ± 0.00274%
P. Gueye M18.3% ± 0.11.8% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00186%
A. Perez F16.2% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00174%
G. Moreno F15.9% ± 0.11.3% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00125%
N. Pepe M14.2% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00136%
Santi Comesaña M9.8% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00172%
S. Mourino D4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00138%

Napoli

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 81% of goals assigned · 3 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
R. Højlund F28.2% ± 0.14.6% ± 0.10.33 ± 0.002100%
S. McTominay M16.4% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00125%
K. De Bruyne M10.2% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00166%
M. Politano F6.0% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00174%
S. Lobotka M5.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.001100%
David Neres F5.0% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00122%
G. Di Lorenzo D4.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%
A. Rrahmani D4.8% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%

Run 954 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 449, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Napoli)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Villarreal)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationVillarreal 3.0 d rest (short) · Napoli 3.0 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:11 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Villarreal

3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 4 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Elche +3.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 14 SeptLLH Real BetisL 1–2counted as workload
  • Thu 17 SeptLLA MalagaW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptLLH LevanteW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLA Real MadridL 0–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctLLH Elche+3.8 d
  • Tue 20 OctUCLA Liverpool+7 d
  • Sat 24 OctLLA Valencia+10.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 55 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: T. Buchanan (M) — reason unknown; N. Pepe (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79.3 CONFIRMED

Villarreal: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Alberto Moleiro · regularM8686—
P. Gueye · regularM9090—
P. GulácsiG9090—
J. FoythM5656—
Sergi CardonaD6767—
A. FreemanD9090—
Pau NavarroD9090—
Renato Veiga · regularD9027090' Portugal, 12 d before; 90' Portugal, 9 d before
Ilias AkhomachM6767—
Santi Comesaña · regularM5656—
Ayoze Pérez · regularF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 247 minutes — Renato Veiga (90' Portugal, 12 d before; 90' Portugal, 9 d before); G. Mikautadze (63' Georgia, 11 d before; 4' Georgia, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Napoli

3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Venezia +3.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAA FiorentinaD 1–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctSAH FrosinoneW 3–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctSAA Venezia+3.8 d
  • Tue 20 OctUCLH Bodo/Glimt+7 d
  • Sat 24 OctSAH AS Roma+10.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 55 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Alisson Santos (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.5 CONFIRMED

Napoli: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Rafa Marín · regularD9090—
N. LangM7217444' Netherlands, 12 d before; 58' Netherlands, 9 d before
Amir Rrahmani · regularD9090—
K. De BruyneM9017282' Belgium, 11 d before
David NeresM6161—
R. Højlund · regularF6123390' Denmark, 12 d before; 82' Denmark, 9 d before
L. SpinazzolaM8181—
S. Lobotka · regularM7125190' Slovakia, 11 d before; 90' Slovakia, 7 d before
G. Di Lorenzo · regularM901450' Italy, 11 d before; 55' Italy, 8 d before
B. BadiashileD9090—
A. Meret · regularG9090—

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 859 minutes — V. Milinković-Savić (0' Serbia, 12 d before; 90' Serbia, 9 d before); N. Lang (44' Netherlands, 12 d before; 58' Netherlands, 9 d before); K. De Bruyne (82' Belgium, 11 d before); B. Gilmour (88' Scotland, 10 d before; 90' Scotland, 7 d before); R. Højlund (90' Denmark, 12 d before; 82' Denmark, 9 d before); S. Lobotka (90' Slovakia, 11 d before; 90' Slovakia, 7 d before); G. Di Lorenzo (0' Italy, 11 d before; 55' Italy, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Villarreal

  • T. Buchanan · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture

Napoli

  • A. Buongiorno · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • A. Vergara · injury / absence: Calf Injury · Missing Fixture
  • Alisson Santos · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • C. Favasuli · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
  • F. Anguissa · injury / absence: Groin Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. Olivera · injury / absence: Groin Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Villarreal46%43%45%
Draw24%26%26%
Napoli29%31%30%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 20 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Villarreal

  • Villarreal: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.9 and conceded 2.4 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L2–3at Borussia Dortmund8 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Bayer Leverkusen28 Jan · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Ajax20 Jan · in model evidence
  • L2–3v FC Copenhagen10 Dec · in model evidence
  • L0–4at Borussia Dortmund25 Nov · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Pafos5 Nov · in model evidence

Napoli

  • Napoli: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–1v Arsenal9 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Chelsea28 Jan · in model evidence
  • D1–1at FC Copenhagen20 Jan · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Benfica10 Dec · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Qarabag25 Nov · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Eintracht Frankfurt4 Nov · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal14%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more8%
Over 1.580%
Over 2.557%
Over 3.535%
Both teams score60%

Villarreal

Expected goals1.68
Scores at least once81%
Scores 2 or more50%
Clean sheet27%

Napoli

Expected goals1.30
Scores at least once73%
Scores 2 or more37%
Clean sheet19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability7 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

7 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Villarreal

  • T. BuchananOutMuscle Injury

Napoli

  • A. BuongiornoOutKnee Injury
  • A. VergaraOutCalf Injury
  • Alisson SantosOutMuscle Injury
  • C. FavasuliOutThigh Injury
  • F. AnguissaOutGroin Injury
  • M. OliveraOutGroin Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season21st v 27th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Villarreal

21st of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 2, conceded 3

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Napoli

27th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 0, conceded 1

Home W0 D0 L1 (scored 0, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Villarreal to win46.1%46.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 46¢
Draw24.5%23.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Napoli to win29.4%29.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Double chance
Villarreal or draw limited evidence70.6%70.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
Napoli or draw limited evidence53.9%53.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 56¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.5%76.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Draw no bet
Villarreal to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence61.0%60.9% ± 0.2no
Napoli to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence39.0%39.1% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence94.7%95.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 96¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.3%5.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 5¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence80.2%80.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 83¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence19.8%20.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 19¢
Over 2.5 goals in total57.4%57.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 60¢
Under 2.5 goals in total42.6%42.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 41¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence35.0%34.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 37¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence65.0%65.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 64¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence18.3%18.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 20¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence81.7%81.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence8.3%8.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence91.7%91.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence59.6%59.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 63¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence40.4%40.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 38¢
Team goals
Villarreal over 0.5 goals limited evidence81.4%81.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 85¢
Villarreal under 0.5 goals limited evidence18.6%18.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 19¢
Villarreal over 1.5 goals limited evidence50.2%50.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 53¢
Villarreal under 1.5 goals limited evidence49.8%49.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 50¢
Villarreal over 2.5 goals limited evidence23.9%23.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Villarreal under 2.5 goals limited evidence76.1%76.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Villarreal over 3.5 goals limited evidence9.1%9.1% ± 0.1no
Villarreal under 3.5 goals limited evidence90.9%90.9% ± 0.1no
Napoli over 0.5 goals limited evidence72.9%72.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 77¢
Napoli under 0.5 goals limited evidence27.1%27.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 27¢
Napoli over 1.5 goals limited evidence37.5%37.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 41¢
Napoli under 1.5 goals limited evidence62.5%62.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 61¢
Napoli over 2.5 goals limited evidence14.4%14.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Napoli under 2.5 goals limited evidence85.6%85.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 86¢
Napoli over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.4%4.4% ± 0.1no
Napoli under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.6%95.6% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Villarreal to win by 3 or more limited evidence10.4%10.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Villarreal to win by 2 or more limited evidence24.5%24.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Villarreal to win by 1 or more limited evidence46.1%46.4% ± 0.2no
Villarreal not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence70.6%70.2% ± 0.1no
Villarreal not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence87.2%87.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Villarreal not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.6%95.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Napoli to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.4%4.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 5¢
Napoli to win by 2 or more limited evidence12.8%12.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 13¢
Napoli to win by 1 or more limited evidence29.4%29.8% ± 0.1no
Napoli not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence53.9%53.6% ± 0.2no
Napoli not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence75.5%75.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Napoli not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence89.6%89.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Clean sheet
Villarreal clean sheet grid27.1%27.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 27¢
Napoli clean sheet grid18.6%18.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 19¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—23.8% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 1—22.0% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 2—14.0% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 3—6.8% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 4—2.5% ± 0.0not listed
Villarreal by exactly 5—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Napoli by exactly 1—17.0% ± 0.1not listed
Napoli by exactly 2—8.4% ± 0.1not listed
Napoli by exactly 3—3.2% ± 0.1not listed
Napoli by exactly 4—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Napoli by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Villarreal by 6 or more—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Napoli by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Villarreal 1–1 Napoli—11.1% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal 2–1 Napoli—9.4% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal 1–0 Napoli—8.5% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal 1–2 Napoli—7.3% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal 2–0 Napoli—7.1% ± 0.1not listed

Villarreal v Napoli: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Napoli to win (90 minutes)
29%
30%
YES on Napoli to WinNapoli wins in 90 minutes
29%30¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 19,301 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 36,450 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Villarreal to win (90 minutes)
46%
45%
YES on Villarreal to WinVillarreal wins in 90 minutes
46%46¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 34,387 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawVillarreal or Napoli wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%75¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,007 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Napoli to WinVillarreal wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
71%71¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 15,625 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Villarreal to WinNapoli wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
54%56¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 23,781 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%96¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,899 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,272 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
80%
82%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
80%83¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 15,060 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
20%19¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,223 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
57%
60%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
57%60¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 109 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
43%41¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,899 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
35%
37%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
35%37¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
65%64¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 7,835 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
18%20¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,225 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
82%82¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,583 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
8%10¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,574 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
92%92¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,805 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
60%
63%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
60%63¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,070 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
40%38¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 463 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Winning margin
Napoli to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Napoli to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNapoli wins by 2 goals or more
13%13¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,942 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Napoli to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVillarreal wins or the match is drawn, or Napoli wins by 1 goal · Napoli not by 2+ goals
87%89¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 14,230 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Napoli to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Napoli to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNapoli wins by 3 goals or more
4%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,010 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Napoli to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVillarreal wins or the match is drawn, or Napoli wins by 2 goals or fewer · Napoli not by 3+ goals
96%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 19,720 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Villarreal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVillarreal wins by 2 goals or more
24%24¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 88 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Villarreal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNapoli wins or the match is drawn, or Villarreal wins by 1 goal · Villarreal not by 2+ goals
76%77¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,812 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Villarreal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVillarreal wins by 3 goals or more
10%11¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,041 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Villarreal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNapoli wins or the match is drawn, or Villarreal wins by 2 goals or fewer · Villarreal not by 3+ goals
90%91¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,406 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Team goals
Napoli over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
73%
75%
Limited evidence
YES on Napoli Over 0.5 GoalsNapoli scores 1 goal or more
73%77¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 615 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Napoli Over 0.5 GoalsNapoli does not score · Napoli under 0.5 goals
27%27¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,840 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Napoli over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
37%
40%
Limited evidence
YES on Napoli Over 1.5 GoalsNapoli scores 2 goals or more
37%41¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,240 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Napoli Over 1.5 GoalsNapoli scores 1 goal or fewer · Napoli under 1.5 goals
63%61¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Napoli over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Napoli Over 2.5 GoalsNapoli scores 3 goals or more
14%18¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,319 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Napoli Over 2.5 GoalsNapoli scores 2 goals or fewer · Napoli under 2.5 goals
86%86¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Villarreal over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
81%
83%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal Over 0.5 GoalsVillarreal scores 1 goal or more
81%85¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,521 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Villarreal Over 0.5 GoalsVillarreal does not score · Villarreal under 0.5 goals
19%19¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 34 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Villarreal over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
50%
52%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal Over 1.5 GoalsVillarreal scores 2 goals or more
50%53¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 297 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Villarreal Over 1.5 GoalsVillarreal scores 1 goal or fewer · Villarreal under 1.5 goals
50%50¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 129 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Villarreal over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
26%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal Over 2.5 GoalsVillarreal scores 3 goals or more
24%26¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,046 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Villarreal Over 2.5 GoalsVillarreal scores 2 goals or fewer · Villarreal under 2.5 goals
76%75¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 46.1% · draw 24.5% · away 29.4%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.30
Villarreal eligible matches
139 (139 with xG)
Napoli eligible matches
137 (131 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

VillarrealOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctReal Madridaway0–10.64–0.99L
20 SeptLevantehome3–14.27–0.45W
17 SeptMalagaaway3–13.33–0.63W
14 SeptReal Betishome1–21.89–3.52L
8 SeptBorussia Dortmundaway2–31.34–2.83L
5 SeptDeportivo La Corunahome2–31.14–0.79L
NapoliOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctFrosinonehome3–03.17–1.03W
20 SeptFiorentinaaway1–1—D
13 SeptBolognahome1–0—W
9 SeptArsenalhome0–1—L
5 SeptInteraway2–3—L
30 AugComohome1–2—L

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13VILNAP-BTTS
59.6%62.5%—0.62 / 0.630.389,070 / 463Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Napoli to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-NAP
29.4%29.5%−0.1 pts0.29 / 0.300.7119,301 / 15,625Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-VIL
46.1%45.0%+1.1 pts0.44 / 0.460.5634,387 / 23,781Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-TIE
24.5%25.5%−1.0 pts0.25 / 0.260.7536,450 / 2,007Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Napoli to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VILNAP-NAP2
12.8%12.0%—0.11 / 0.130.891,942 / 14,230Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Napoli to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VILNAP-NAP3
4.4%4.0%—0.03 / 0.050.972,010 / 19,720Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VILNAP-VIL2
24.5%23.5%—0.23 / 0.240.7788 / 1,812Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VILNAP-VIL3
10.4%10.0%—0.09 / 0.110.912,041 / 5,406Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Napoli over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-NAP1
72.9%75.0%—0.73 / 0.770.27615 / 9,840Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Napoli over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-NAP2
37.5%40.0%—0.39 / 0.410.618,240 / 5Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Napoli over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-NAP3
14.4%16.0%—0.14 / 0.180.861,319 / 125Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-VIL1
81.4%83.0%—0.81 / 0.850.191,521 / 34Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-VIL2
50.2%51.5%—0.50 / 0.530.50297 / 129Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-VIL3
23.9%25.5%—0.25 / 0.260.751,046 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-1
94.7%95.5%—0.95 / 0.960.051,899 / 1,272Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-2
80.2%82.0%—0.81 / 0.830.1915,060 / 3,223Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-3
57.4%59.5%—0.59 / 0.600.41109 / 6,899Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-4
35.0%36.5%—0.36 / 0.370.640 / 7,835Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-5
18.3%19.0%—0.18 / 0.200.821,225 / 11,583Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VILNAP-6
8.3%9.0%—0.08 / 0.100.922,574 / 6,805Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:11:18.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home43.0%42.8% – 44.1%45.5%2.201046.1%+3.1 pts
1x2:draw26.1%25.2% – 26.9%27.0%3.701024.5%−1.7 pts
1x2:away30.8%30.4% – 31.3%32.3%3.101029.4%−1.3 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.557.8%55.7% – 59.0%60.8%1.658——
total_goals:under:2.542.2%41.0% – 44.3%44.4%2.258——

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:55 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.14 · draw 3.62 · home 2.2311/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.10 · draw 3.75 · home 2.1511/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.14 · draw 3.83 · home 2.2011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBOMatch winneraway 2.86 · draw 3.37 · home 2.0611/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
William HillMatch winneraway 3.00 · draw 3.50 · home 2.1511/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Match winneraway 3.10 · draw 3.50 · home 2.2011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.10 · draw 3.70 · home 2.2411/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.22 · draw 3.72 · home 2.2911/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.05 · draw 3.70 · home 2.2211/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.00 · draw 3.70 · home 2.1511/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.66 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5511/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5511/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.63 · under 2.5 2.3511/10/2026, 09:30:5511/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.72 · under 2.5 2.1611/10/2026, 09:30:5511/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 09:30:5511/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.71 · under 2.5 2.3211/10/2026, 09:30:5511/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5511/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.58 · under 2.5 2.1911/10/2026, 09:30:5511/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:11:18.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:57 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Villarrealok11/10/2026, 01:39:35 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Napoliok11/10/2026, 01:39:33 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home46.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away29.4%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x70.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x253.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.5%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes59.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no40.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.580.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.519.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.557.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.542.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.535.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.565.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.518.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.581.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.581.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.518.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.550.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.549.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.523.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.576.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.59.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.590.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.572.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.527.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.537.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.562.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.514.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.585.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.510.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.589.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.524.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.575.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.546.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.553.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.570.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.529.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.587.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.512.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home61.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away39.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 449 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:11:18