Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT

NewcastlevAston Villa

Newcastle
47%
Draw
24%
Aston Villa
30%

Got%OnIt gives Newcastle a 47% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Newcastle and 1.4 for Aston Villa.
  • Newcastle won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a game.
  • Aston Villa won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Newcastle are 11th of 20 after 5 games; Aston Villa are 14th.
  • Newcastle have won 2 and lost 1; Aston Villa have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Newcastle

  • W2–1v Hull City19 Sept
  • L1–4at Leeds14 Sept
  • D2–2v Bournemouth5 Sept
  • W2–0at Tottenham29 Aug
  • D2–2v Liverpool23 Aug
  • L0–2at Fulham24 May

Aston Villa

  • D2–2v Brentford10 Oct
  • W3–2at Tottenham19 Sept
  • L1–2v Nottingham Forest12 Sept
  • W3–2at Club Brugge KV8 Sept
  • D0–0at Hull City5 Sept
  • L0–1v Arsenal31 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Newcastle win46.5%45.7%−0.9 pts
Draw23.9%23.1%−0.8 pts
Aston Villa win29.6%31.3%+1.7 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.75 and 1.35). Newcastle 1.75 · Aston Villa 1.35 · total 3.10 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Newcastle–Aston Villa)

  1. 1–110.9%
  2. 2–19.3%
  3. 1–07.6%
  4. 1–27.2%
  5. 2–06.9%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Newcastle

Expected goals
1.75
Scoring vs average
×1.14
Conceding vs average
×1.07

Aston Villa

Expected goals
1.35
Scoring vs average
×1.07
Conceding vs average
×1.14
  • Newcastle (home): expected to score ×1.14 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.07 the average.
  • Aston Villa (away): expected to score ×1.07 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.14 the average.
  • Recent 369 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.54 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.22).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Newcastle
137 matches (137 with xG)
Aston Villa
159 matches (158 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home46.5%over-stated by 1.5 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 43.6%
1x2:draw23.9%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 21.4%
1x2:away29.6%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 27.8%
double_chance:1x70.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x253.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1276.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes61.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no38.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.2%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 94.9%
total_goals:under:0.54.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.581.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.3%
total_goals:under:1.518.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.559.9%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 59.2%
total_goals:under:2.540.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.537.5%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 36.9%
total_goals:under:3.562.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.520.2%over-stated by 0.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 18.3%
total_goals:under:4.579.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.59.4%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 7.0%
total_goals:under:5.590.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.582.6%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 82.1%
team_total:home:under:0.517.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.552.1%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 51.5%
team_total:home:under:1.547.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.525.5%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.9%
team_total:home:under:2.574.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.510.0%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 9.0%
team_total:home:under:3.590.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.574.2%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.6%
team_total:away:under:0.525.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.539.2%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 38.5%
team_total:away:under:1.560.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.515.5%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.0%
team_total:away:under:2.584.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.54.9%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.4%
team_total:away:under:3.595.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.511.0%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.0%
spread:away:+2.589.0%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.6%
spread:home:-1.525.2%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 23.2%
spread:away:+1.574.8%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 74.3%
spread:home:-0.546.5%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 44.7%
spread:away:+0.553.5%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 52.8%
spread:home:+0.570.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 69.8%
spread:away:-0.529.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.3%
spread:home:+1.586.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 86.5%
spread:away:-1.513.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 12.3%
spread:home:+2.595.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.54.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home61.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away38.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.26 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 4462682849714283242 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.19 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Newcastle win46.5%46.8% ± 0.2+0.26 pts
Draw23.9%23.4% ± 0.1−0.48 pts
Aston Villa win29.6%29.8% ± 0.1+0.21 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.26 pts (team_total:away:over:2.5); 2 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Newcastle
25.8% ± 0.1 (exact 25.8%)
Aston Villa
17.3% ± 0.1 (exact 17.4%)

Goal difference (Newcastle minus Aston Villa)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -41.0% ± 0.0
  4. -33.1% ± 0.1
  5. -28.6% ± 0.1
  6. -116.8% ± 0.1
  7. 023.4% ± 0.1
  8. 121.7% ± 0.1
  9. 214.1% ± 0.1
  10. 37.1% ± 0.1
  11. 42.7% ± 0.1
  12. 50.9% ± 0.0
  13. >50.3% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa10.8% ± 0.110.9%
Newcastle 2–1 Aston Villa9.4% ± 0.19.3%
Newcastle 1–0 Aston Villa7.9% ± 0.17.6%
Newcastle 1–2 Aston Villa7.3% ± 0.17.2%
Newcastle 2–0 Aston Villa6.8% ± 0.16.9%

Expected goals (simulated)

Newcastle
mean 1.75 · variance 1.75 · ± 0.004
Aston Villa
mean 1.35 · variance 1.34 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move newcastle win by −1.7 pts (to 44.8%). Expected goals move −0.10 for Newcastle and −0.02 for Aston Villa.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Newcastle win46.5%44.8%−1.7 pts
Draw23.9%24.1%+0.1 pts
Aston Villa win29.6%31.1%+1.6 pts
Expected goals1.75 – 1.351.65 – 1.34−0.10 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 148 · REPORTED 13 · ESTIMATED 59 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Newcastle

Attack ×0.93 band 0.89–0.96 ESTIMATED · 14.2% of goals share out

  • A. Elanga F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 6.1% · effect −6.1% REPORTED
  • E. Jaouen G Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Joelinton M Questionable (Thigh Injury) · share 3.7% · effect −1.9% REPORTED
  • D. Burn D Questionable (Ankle Injury) · share 2.0% · effect −1.0% REPORTED
  • J. Ramsey M Questionable (Injury) · share 3.5% · effect −1.8% REPORTED
  • V. Livramento M Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • W. Osula F Questionable (Foot Injury) · share 6.9% · effect −3.5% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Hornicek)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Aston Villa

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 2.6% of goals share out

  • I. Maatsen D Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 0.8% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • T. Harwood-Bellis D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Onana M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 1.7% · effect −1.8% REPORTED
  • Modou Kéba Cissé D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • L. Goretzka Questionable (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Ruggeri D Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Z. Suzuki)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move newcastle win by +2.1 pts (to 48.6%). Expected goals move +0.03 for Newcastle and −0.05 for Aston Villa.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Newcastle win46.5%48.6%+2.1 pts
Draw23.9%23.2%−0.7 pts
Aston Villa win29.6%28.2%−1.4 pts
Expected goals1.75 – 1.351.78 – 1.30+0.03 / −0.05

Data labels: CONFIRMED 148 · REPORTED 13 · ESTIMATED 59 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Newcastle rate ×1.02 band 0.71–1.48

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Aston Villa rate ×0.96 band 0.66–1.42

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move aston villa win by −0.1 pts (to 29.4%). Expected goals move −0.07 for Newcastle and −0.07 for Aston Villa.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Newcastle win46.5%46.6%+0.0 pts
Draw23.9%24.0%+0.1 pts
Aston Villa win29.6%29.4%−0.1 pts
Expected goals1.75 – 1.351.67 – 1.28−0.07 / −0.07

Data labels: CONFIRMED 148 · REPORTED 13 · ESTIMATED 59 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Newcastle

Attack ×0.93 band 0.89–0.96 ESTIMATED · 14.2% of goals share out

  • A. Elanga F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 6.1% · effect −6.1% REPORTED
  • E. Jaouen G Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Joelinton M Questionable (Thigh Injury) · share 3.7% · effect −1.9% REPORTED
  • D. Burn D Questionable (Ankle Injury) · share 2.0% · effect −1.0% REPORTED
  • J. Ramsey M Questionable (Injury) · share 3.5% · effect −1.8% REPORTED
  • V. Livramento M Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • W. Osula F Questionable (Foot Injury) · share 6.9% · effect −3.5% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Hornicek)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Aston Villa

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 2.6% of goals share out

  • I. Maatsen D Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 0.8% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • T. Harwood-Bellis D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Onana M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 1.7% · effect −1.8% REPORTED
  • Modou Kéba Cissé D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • L. Goretzka Questionable (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Ruggeri D Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Z. Suzuki)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Newcastle rate ×1.02 band 0.71–1.48

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Aston Villa rate ×0.96 band 0.66–1.42

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Newcastle win46.5%47.4%+0.9 pts
Draw23.9%23.3%−0.6 pts
Aston Villa win29.6%29.3%−0.3 pts
Expected goals—1.76 – 1.34+0.01 / −0.02

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 571 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)H. Barnes 28% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Newcastle

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 56% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
H. Barnes F28.5% ± 0.14.4% ± 0.10.33 ± 0.00285%
M. Thiaw D8.7% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00186%
J. Willock M6.8% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00169%
Y. Wissa F6.4% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00181%
L. Hall D5.0% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%
J. Murphy M4.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00170%
S. Botman D4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.001100%
L. Miley M4.0% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00167%

Aston Villa

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 46% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
J. McGinn M13.8% ± 0.11.1% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00197%
E. Buendia M13.4% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00186%
N. Jackson F5.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00174%
R. Barkley M3.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00147%
T. Abraham F2.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00014%
M. Cash D1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00044%
J. Manzambi M1.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.00040%
T. Mings D1.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.00065%

Run 982 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 477, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Newcastle)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Aston Villa)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Premier League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationNewcastle 1 absent regular · Aston Villa 2.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:12 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Newcastle

4.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Crystal Palace +7.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLH Hull CityW 2–1counted as workload
  • Mon 12 OctPLA CoventryNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctPLA Crystal Palace+7.9 d
  • Thu 29 OctEFLA Everton+12.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Dedic (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Newcastle: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. Murphy · regularM00—
Y. WissaM00—
M. Fernandez-PardoF000' Belgium, 11.9 d before
L. MileyD00—
S. Botman · regularD00—
L. Hall · regularD07272' England, 10.9 d before
S. SteurM00—
J. Willock · regularM00—
H. Barnes · regularM00—
M. Thiaw · regularD09090' Germany, 12.9 d before
L. HornicekG0900' Czechia, 13.9 d before; 90' Czechia, 10.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 252 minutes — L. Hall (72' England, 10.9 d before); M. Thiaw (90' Germany, 12.9 d before); L. Hornicek (0' Czechia, 13.9 d before; 90' Czechia, 10.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Aston Villa

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Viking +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.9 d before (H Fenerbahçe) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLA TottenhamW 3–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH BrentfordD 2–2counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLH FenerbahçeNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Viking+4.1 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLH Manchester City+6.8 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLA Bournemouth+11.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: I. Maatsen (D) — reason unknown; G. Hemmings (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Aston Villa: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. Buendía · regularM064—
M. RuggeriD010156' Italy, 11.9 d before
T. MingsD090—
B. Kamara · regularM090—
Z. SuzukiG090—
M. CashD015363' Poland, 11.9 d before
João GomesM086—
J. McGinn · regularM026790' Scotland, 13.9 d before; 87' Scotland, 10.9 d before
J. ManzambiM022190' Switzerland, 13.9 d before; 45' Switzerland, 10.9 d before
N. JacksonF090—
V. Lindelöf · regularD018090' Sweden, 11.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 521 minutes — M. Ruggeri (56' Italy, 11.9 d before); M. Cash (63' Poland, 11.9 d before); J. McGinn (90' Scotland, 13.9 d before; 87' Scotland, 10.9 d before); J. Manzambi (90' Switzerland, 13.9 d before; 45' Switzerland, 10.9 d before); V. Lindelöf (90' Sweden, 11.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Newcastle47%45%46%
Draw24%25%26%
Aston Villa30%29%30%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 21 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Newcastle

  • Newcastle: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W2–1v Hull City19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at Leeds14 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Bournemouth5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Tottenham29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Liverpool23 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Fulham24 May · in model evidence

Aston Villa

  • Aston Villa: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • D2–2v Brentford10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Tottenham19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Nottingham Forest12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Hull City5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Arsenal31 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–4at Brighton23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal13%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals11%
6 or more9%
Over 1.582%
Over 2.560%
Over 3.538%
Both teams score62%

Newcastle

Expected goals1.75
Scores at least once83%
Scores 2 or more52%
Clean sheet26%

Aston Villa

Expected goals1.35
Scores at least once74%
Scores 2 or more39%
Clean sheet17%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season11th v 14th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Newcastle

11th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L1 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 9

Home W1 D2 L0 (scored 6, conceded 5) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WLDWD (most recent last)

Aston Villa

14th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L3 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 11

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 3, conceded 5) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games DWLDL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Newcastle to win46.5%46.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 46¢
Draw23.9%23.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Aston Villa to win29.6%29.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Double chance
Newcastle or draw limited evidence70.4%70.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
Aston Villa or draw limited evidence53.5%53.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 55¢
Not a draw limited evidence76.1%76.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Draw no bet
Newcastle to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence61.2%61.1% ± 0.2no
Aston Villa to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence38.8%38.9% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.2%95.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence4.8%4.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence81.8%81.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 82¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence18.2%18.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 20¢
Over 2.5 goals in total59.9%59.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 61¢
Under 2.5 goals in total40.1%40.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 42¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence37.5%37.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 38¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence62.5%62.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 64¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence20.2%20.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 21¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence79.8%79.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence9.4%9.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence90.6%90.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence61.5%61.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 63¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence38.5%38.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 40¢
Team goals
Newcastle over 0.5 goals limited evidence82.6%82.7% ± 0.1no
Newcastle under 0.5 goals limited evidence17.4%17.3% ± 0.1no
Newcastle over 1.5 goals limited evidence52.1%52.1% ± 0.2no
Newcastle under 1.5 goals limited evidence47.9%47.9% ± 0.2no
Newcastle over 2.5 goals limited evidence25.5%25.5% ± 0.1no
Newcastle under 2.5 goals limited evidence74.5%74.5% ± 0.1no
Newcastle over 3.5 goals limited evidence10.0%10.1% ± 0.1no
Newcastle under 3.5 goals limited evidence90.0%89.9% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa over 0.5 goals limited evidence74.2%74.2% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa under 0.5 goals limited evidence25.8%25.8% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa over 1.5 goals limited evidence39.2%39.0% ± 0.2no
Aston Villa under 1.5 goals limited evidence60.8%61.0% ± 0.2no
Aston Villa over 2.5 goals limited evidence15.5%15.3% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa under 2.5 goals limited evidence84.5%84.7% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.9%4.8% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.1%95.2% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Newcastle to win by 3 or more limited evidence11.0%11.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Newcastle to win by 2 or more limited evidence25.2%25.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Newcastle to win by 1 or more limited evidence46.5%46.8% ± 0.2no
Newcastle not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence70.4%70.2% ± 0.1no
Newcastle not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence86.9%87.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Newcastle not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.4%95.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Aston Villa to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.6%4.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Aston Villa to win by 2 or more limited evidence13.1%12.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Aston Villa to win by 1 or more limited evidence29.6%29.8% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence53.5%53.2% ± 0.2no
Aston Villa not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence74.8%74.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Aston Villa not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence89.0%88.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Clean sheet
Newcastle clean sheet grid25.8%25.8% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa clean sheet grid17.4%17.3% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—23.4% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 1—21.7% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 2—14.1% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 3—7.1% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 4—2.7% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 5—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 1—16.8% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 2—8.6% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 3—3.1% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 4—1.0% ± 0.0not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Newcastle by 6 or more—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Aston Villa by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa—10.8% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle 2–1 Aston Villa—9.4% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle 1–0 Aston Villa—7.9% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle 1–2 Aston Villa—7.3% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle 2–0 Aston Villa—6.8% ± 0.1not listed

Newcastle v Aston Villa: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Aston Villa to win (90 minutes)
30%
30%
YES on Aston Villa to WinAston Villa wins in 90 minutes
30%30¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,528 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Newcastle to win (90 minutes)
47%
46%
YES on Newcastle to WinNewcastle wins in 90 minutes
47%46¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,564 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 9,484 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawNewcastle or Aston Villa wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 530 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Aston Villa to WinNewcastle wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
70%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,831 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Newcastle to WinAston Villa wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
53%55¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,036 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%95¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,094 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
82%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 699 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
18%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,142 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
60%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
60%61¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,204 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
40%42¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,734 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
38%
37%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
38%38¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,194 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
62%64¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,177 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
20%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
20%21¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,193 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
80%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 740 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
9%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,196 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
91%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,528 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
62%
62%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
62%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 691 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
38%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,039 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Winning margin
Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAston Villa wins by 2 goals or more
13%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,300 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNewcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 1 goal · Aston Villa not by 2+ goals
87%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,338 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAston Villa wins by 3 goals or more
5%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 985 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNewcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 2 goals or fewer · Aston Villa not by 3+ goals
95%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,926 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
25%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNewcastle wins by 2 goals or more
25%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 507 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Newcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 1 goal · Newcastle not by 2+ goals
75%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 792 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNewcastle wins by 3 goals or more
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,298 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Newcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 2 goals or fewer · Newcastle not by 3+ goals
89%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,745 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 46.5% · draw 23.9% · away 29.6%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.35
Newcastle eligible matches
137 (137 with xG)
Aston Villa eligible matches
159 (158 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

NewcastleOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptHull Cityhome2–11.44–1.59W
14 SeptLeedsaway1–40.88–2.08L
5 SeptBournemouthhome2–20.71–1.37D
29 AugTottenhamaway2–00.72–1.12W
23 AugLiverpoolhome2–21.58–2.98D
24 MayFulhamaway0–20.31–1.81L
Aston VillaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBrentfordhome2–21.84–1.31D
19 SeptTottenhamaway3–21.16–1.56W
12 SeptNottingham Foresthome1–20.82–2.28L
8 SeptClub Brugge KVaway3–23.22–1.53W
5 SeptHull Cityaway0–01.93–0.57D
31 AugArsenalhome0–10.33–1.04L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17NEWAVL-BTTS
61.5%61.5%+0.0 pts0.60 / 0.630.40691 / 2,039Comparable
seen 21 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Aston Villa to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL
29.6%29.5%+0.1 pts0.29 / 0.300.714,528 / 2,831Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW
46.5%45.5%+1.0 pts0.45 / 0.460.554,564 / 2,036Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-TIE
23.9%25.5%−1.6 pts0.25 / 0.260.759,484 / 530Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL2
13.1%12.5%+0.6 pts0.11 / 0.140.891,300 / 1,338Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL3
4.6%5.0%−0.4 pts0.03 / 0.070.97985 / 1,926Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW2
25.2%23.0%+2.2 pts0.22 / 0.240.78507 / 792Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW3
11.0%9.5%+1.5 pts0.08 / 0.110.921,298 / 1,745Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-1
95.2%94.5%+0.7 pts0.94 / 0.950.065 / 1,094Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-2
81.8%81.0%+0.8 pts0.80 / 0.820.20699 / 1,142Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-3
59.9%59.5%+0.4 pts0.58 / 0.610.422,204 / 1,734Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-4
37.5%37.0%+0.5 pts0.36 / 0.380.641,194 / 2,177Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-5
20.2%19.5%+0.7 pts0.18 / 0.210.821,193 / 740Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-6
9.4%8.5%+0.9 pts0.07 / 0.100.931,196 / 1,528Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:12:15.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home45.3%43.6% – 45.6%47.6%2.101046.5%+1.2 pts
1x2:draw25.1%24.5% – 26.1%26.5%3.771023.9%−1.2 pts
1x2:away29.5%28.7% – 31.1%31.0%3.231029.6%+0.1 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:22 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.558.9%58.7% – 59.8%61.7%1.62759.9%+1.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.541.1%40.2% – 41.3%43.1%2.32740.1%−1.0 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:22 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.26 · draw 3.82 · home 2.1111/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.00 · draw 3.80 · home 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.80 · home 2.1111/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.92 · draw 3.39 · home 2.0311/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.60 · home 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.60 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.75 · home 2.0911/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.34 · draw 3.92 · home 2.1711/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.80 · home 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.13 · draw 3.70 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3211/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3711/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.56 · under 2.5 2.2311/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:12:15.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:09 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Newcastleok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Aston Villaok11/10/2026, 01:39:12 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home46.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw23.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away29.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x70.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x253.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1276.1%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes61.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no38.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.581.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.518.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.559.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.540.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.537.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.562.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.520.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.579.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.590.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.582.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.517.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.552.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.547.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.525.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.574.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.510.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.590.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.574.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.525.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.539.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.560.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.515.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.584.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.54.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.595.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.511.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.589.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.525.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.574.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.546.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.553.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.570.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.529.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.586.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.513.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home61.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away38.8%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 477 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:12:15