La Liga·Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT

OsasunavRacing Santander

Osasuna

57%

Draw

20%

Racing Santander

23%

Got%OnIt gives Osasuna a 57% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: Racing Santander has little or no La Liga history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 2.2 goals for Osasuna and 1.4 for Racing Santander.
Osasuna won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.8 a game.
Racing Santander won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.3 a game.

What argues against it

Racing Santander has little or no La Liga history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Osasuna are 14th of 20 after 7 games; Racing Santander are 16th.
Osasuna have won 2 and lost 3; Racing Santander have won 2 and lost 4.

Recent matches the model used

Osasuna

L2–5at Real Betis11 Oct
D1–1v Rayo Vallecano19 Sept
L0–4at Atletico Madrid16 Sept
L0–2v Espanyol12 Sept
L2–5at Alaves6 Sept
W1–0v Getafe31 Aug

Racing Santander

D2–2v Valencia11 Oct
L0–5at Celta Vigo19 Sept
L2–7at Barcelona16 Sept
W2–1v Alaves12 Sept
L2–3at Rayo Vallecano5 Sept
W3–2v Elche28 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 587, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Osasuna)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Racing Santander)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationOsasuna 7 d rest · Racing Santander 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Osasuna

6.8 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Sevilla +8.3 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptLLH Rayo VallecanoD 1–1counted as workload
Sun 11 OctLLA Real BetisL 2–5counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Mon 26 OctLLA Sevilla+8.3 d
Thu 29 OctCdRA Atletico Calatayud+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 47 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78.5 CONFIRMED

Osasuna: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Rubén García · regular	M	74	74	—
Abel Bretones · regular	D	90	90	—
Catena · regular	D	90	90	—
Aitor Fernández	G	90	90	—
Íñigo Arguibide · regular	D	63	63	—
U. Santos	D	45	45	—
Moncayola · regular	M	63	63	—
Lucas Torró	M	90	90	—
Raúl García	F	79	79	—
A. Budimir · regular	F	90	90	0' Croatia, 11.7 d before
Moi Gómez	M	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Racing Santander

6.7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Espanyol +6.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptLLA Celta VigoL 0–5counted as workload
Sun 11 OctLLH ValenciaD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctLLH Espanyol+6.1 d
Thu 29 OctCdRA Ribadesella CF+11.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 12 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 6 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.8 CONFIRMED

Racing Santander: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Jorge Salinas · regular	D	90	90	—
Iván Martín	M	90	90	—
Sergio Canales · regular	M	75	75	—
J. Belocian	D	90	90	—
Pablo Ramón	D	61	61	—
Julen Agirrezabala · regular	G	90	90	—
M. Prati	M	87	87	—
André Almeida	M	61	61	—
Iñigo Vicente · regular	M	90	90	—
M. Zabiri	F	87	87	—
Álvaro Mantilla · regular	D	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Osasuna	57%	50%	49%
Draw	20%	27%	27%
Racing Santander	23%	23%	24%

Based on 9 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Osasuna a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (57% vs 49%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 8 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Osasuna

Osasuna: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 0.9 and conceded 2.1 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.

L2–5at Real Betis11 Oct · in model evidence
D1–1v Rayo Vallecano19 Sept · in model evidence
L0–4at Atletico Madrid16 Sept · in model evidence
L0–2v Espanyol12 Sept · in model evidence
L2–5at Alaves6 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0v Getafe31 Aug · in model evidence

Racing Santander

Racing Santander: 8 finished matches (8 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.6 and conceded 2.9 a game; scored in 75%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 75%; over 1.5 goals in 88%, over 2.5 in 88%.

D2–2v Valencia11 Oct · in model evidence
L0–5at Celta Vigo19 Sept · in model evidence
L2–7at Barcelona16 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1v Alaves12 Sept · in model evidence
L2–3at Rayo Vallecano5 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2v Elche28 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	3%
1 goal	10%
2 goals	18%
3 goals	21%
4 goals	19%
5 goals	14%
6 or more	16%
Over 1.5	88%
Over 2.5	70%
Over 3.5	49%
Both teams score	67%

Osasuna

Expected goals	2.23
Scores at least once	89%
Scores 2 or more	65%
Clean sheet	25%

Racing Santander

Expected goals	1.38
Scores at least once	75%
Scores 2 or more	40%
Clean sheet	11%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season14th v 16th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Osasuna

14th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L3 from 7 games · scored 6, conceded 13

Home W1 D2 L1 (scored 2, conceded 3) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 4, conceded 10)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 3 in 7 games

Last five league games DLLLW (most recent last)

Racing Santander

16th of 20 · 7 pts · W2 D1 L4 from 7 games · scored 11, conceded 21

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 7, conceded 5) · Away W0 D0 L4 (scored 4, conceded 16)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 7 games

Last five league games LLWLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Osasuna to win (90 minutes)

57%

49%

YES on Osasuna to WinOsasuna wins in 90 minutes

57%50¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,627 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Racing Santander to win (90 minutes)

23%

24%

YES on Racing Santander to WinRacing Santander wins in 90 minutes

23%24¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 109 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

20%

27%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

20%28¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,813 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawOsasuna or Racing Santander wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

80%74¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 272 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Racing Santander to WinOsasuna wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

77%77¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,348 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Osasuna to WinRacing Santander wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

43%52¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,490 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

97%

94%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

97%95¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 12 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

3%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,378 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

88%

80%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

88%80¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

12%21¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 899 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

70%

56%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

70%58¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 474 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

30%45¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,421 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

49%

35%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

49%36¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 200 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

51%66¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 854 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

30%

18%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

30%19¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 209 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

70%84¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,217 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

16%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

16%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 200 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

84%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,041 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

67%

60%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

67%61¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 869 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

33%41¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,803 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Winning margin

Osasuna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

35%

27%

Limited evidence

YES on Osasuna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsOsasuna wins by 2 goals or more

35%28¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,008 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Osasuna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRacing Santander wins or the match is drawn, or Osasuna wins by 1 goal · Osasuna not by 2+ goals

65%75¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,127 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Osasuna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

18%

12%

Limited evidence

YES on Osasuna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsOsasuna wins by 3 goals or more

18%13¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,711 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Osasuna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRacing Santander wins or the match is drawn, or Osasuna wins by 2 goals or fewer · Osasuna not by 3+ goals

82%90¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,427 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Racing Santander to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

Limited evidence

YES on Racing Santander to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRacing Santander wins by 2 goals or more

10%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,012 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Racing Santander to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsOsasuna wins or the match is drawn, or Racing Santander wins by 1 goal · Racing Santander not by 2+ goals

90%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,257 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Racing Santander to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Racing Santander to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRacing Santander wins by 3 goals or more

3%5¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 416 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Racing Santander to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsOsasuna wins or the match is drawn, or Racing Santander wins by 2 goals or fewer · Racing Santander not by 3+ goals

97%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 69 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 56.8% · draw 20.1% · away 23.2%
Expected goals: 2.23 – 1.38
Osasuna eligible matches: 122 (122 with xG)
Racing Santander eligible matches: 8 (8 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: away side has 8 eligible matches; away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
thin evidence: away side has 8 eligible matches
away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
the model's home probability is 8% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's draw probability is 7% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Osasuna	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Real Betis	away	2–5	1.57–2.85	L
19 Sept	Rayo Vallecano	home	1–1	0.53–1.01	D
16 Sept	Atletico Madrid	away	0–4	0.48–3.99	L
12 Sept	Espanyol	home	0–2	1.05–1.43	L
6 Sept	Alaves	away	2–5	1.64–1.20	L
31 Aug	Getafe	home	1–0	1.68–0.68	W

Racing Santander	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Valencia	home	2–2	1.32–1.10	D
19 Sept	Celta Vigo	away	0–5	0.75–2.14	L
16 Sept	Barcelona	away	2–7	1.98–6.74	L
12 Sept	Alaves	home	2–1	2.01–1.98	W
5 Sept	Rayo Vallecano	away	2–3	0.48–1.61	L
28 Aug	Elche	home	3–2	1.72–1.03	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18OSASAN-BTTS	66.9%	60.0%	+6.9 pts	0.59 / 0.61	0.41	869 / 1,803	Comparable seen 32 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Osasuna to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA	56.8%	49.0%	+7.8 pts	0.48 / 0.50	0.52	1,627 / 2,490	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Racing Santander to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN	23.2%	23.5%	−0.3 pts	0.23 / 0.24	0.77	109 / 1,348	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-TIE	20.1%	27.0%	−6.9 pts	0.26 / 0.28	0.74	4,813 / 272	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Osasuna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA2	35.3%	26.5%	+8.8 pts	0.25 / 0.28	0.75	1,008 / 1,127	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Osasuna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA3	18.4%	11.5%	+6.9 pts	0.10 / 0.13	0.90	2,711 / 1,427	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Racing Santander to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN2	9.9%	8.5%	+1.4 pts	0.07 / 0.10	0.93	1,012 / 1,257	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Racing Santander to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN3	3.4%	3.5%	−0.1 pts	0.02 / 0.05	0.98	416 / 69	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-1	97.3%	94.0%	+3.3 pts	0.93 / 0.95	0.07	12 / 1,378	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-2	87.6%	79.5%	+8.1 pts	0.79 / 0.80	0.21	3 / 899	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-3	70.0%	56.5%	+13.5 pts	0.55 / 0.58	0.45	474 / 1,421	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-4	48.8%	35.0%	+13.8 pts	0.34 / 0.36	0.66	200 / 854	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-5	29.7%	17.5%	+12.2 pts	0.16 / 0.19	0.84	209 / 1,217	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-6	15.8%	7.5%	+8.3 pts	0.07 / 0.08	0.93	200 / 1,041	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:09:22.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	49.8%	47.1% – 51.0%	52.6%	1.90	9	56.8%	+6.9 pts
1x2:draw	26.7%	26.1% – 27.9%	27.9%	3.58	9	20.1%	−6.7 pts
1x2:away	23.0%	22.3% – 25.8%	25.0%	4.00	9	23.2%	+0.1 pts

9 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:25.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	54.7%	53.6% – 56.0%	57.5%	1.74	6	70.0%	+15.3 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	45.3%	44.0% – 46.4%	47.6%	2.10	6	30.0%	−15.3 pts

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:25.

Every bookmaker page used (15)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 4.20 · draw 3.58 · home 1.90	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Betfair	Match winner	away 3.90 · draw 3.60 · home 1.90	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 4.26 · draw 3.40 · home 1.91	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
SBO	Match winner	away 3.43 · draw 3.28 · home 1.88	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
William Hill	Match winner	away 4.00 · draw 3.40 · home 1.85	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365	Match winner	away 4.00 · draw 3.50 · home 1.85	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Dafabet	Match winner	away 3.90 · draw 3.65 · home 1.92	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBet	Match winner	away 4.32 · draw 3.68 · home 1.95	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Betano	Match winner	away 4.25 · draw 3.60 · home 1.87	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.78 · under 2.5 2.06	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.81 · under 2.5 2.17	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.72 · under 2.5 2.18	11/10/2026, 09:31:25	11/10/2026, 06:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:09:22.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:12 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Osasuna	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:18 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Racing Santander	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:19 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	56.8%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	20.1%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	23.2%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	76.8%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	43.2%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	79.9%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	66.9%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	33.1%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	97.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	2.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	87.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	12.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	70.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	30.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	48.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	51.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	29.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	70.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	15.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	84.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	89.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	10.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	65.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	34.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	38.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	61.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	18.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	81.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	74.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	25.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	40.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	59.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	16.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	83.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	5.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	94.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	18.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	81.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	35.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	64.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	56.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	43.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	76.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	23.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	90.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	9.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	96.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	3.4%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	71.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	29.0%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 587 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:09:22