Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT

Manchester CityvIpswich

Manchester City
78%
Draw
14%
Ipswich
8%

Got%OnIt gives Manchester City a 78% chance of winning. That is roughly 4 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.8 goals for Manchester City and 0.8 for Ipswich.
  • Manchester City won 6 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.7 a game.
  • Ipswich won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Manchester City are 1st of 20 after 5 games; Ipswich are 9th.
  • Manchester City have won 5 and lost 0; Ipswich have won 3 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Manchester City

  • W3–0at Liverpool11 Oct
  • W5–3v Sunderland20 Sept
  • W1–0at Manchester United13 Sept
  • W2–0at FC Porto8 Sept
  • W1–0v Coventry5 Sept
  • W4–1at Crystal Palace28 Aug

Ipswich

  • W2–1v Fulham10 Oct
  • L0–1at Everton19 Sept
  • W3–2at Crystal Palace12 Sept
  • L0–2v Liverpool4 Sept
  • L2–5at Manchester United30 Aug
  • W2–1v Sunderland22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Manchester City win77.8%85.2%+7.4 pts
Draw13.8%9.7%−4.1 pts
Ipswich win8.4%5.1%−3.3 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

3–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.81 and 0.85). Manchester City 2.81 · Ipswich 0.85 · total 3.66 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Manchester City–Ipswich)

  1. 2–010.2%
  2. 3–09.5%
  3. 2–18.6%
  4. 3–18.1%
  5. 1–07.1%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 0.9998).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Manchester City

Expected goals
2.81
Scoring vs average
×1.83
Conceding vs average
×0.67

Ipswich

Expected goals
0.85
Scoring vs average
×0.67
Conceding vs average
×1.83
  • Manchester City (home): expected to score ×1.83 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.67 the average.
  • Ipswich (away): expected to score ×0.67 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.83 the average.
  • Recent 369 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.54 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.22).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Manchester City
151 matches (150 with xG)
Ipswich
44 matches (44 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home77.8%under-stated by 6.4 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 75.4%
1x2:draw13.8%over-stated by 1.5 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 10.3%
1x2:away8.4%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 7.2%
double_chance:1x91.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x222.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1286.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes53.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no46.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.597.3%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 97.0%
total_goals:under:0.52.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.588.2%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 87.7%
total_goals:under:1.511.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.570.7%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 70.1%
total_goals:under:2.529.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.549.7%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 49.0%
total_goals:under:3.550.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.530.5%over-stated by 0.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 28.4%
total_goals:under:4.569.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.516.4%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 13.8%
total_goals:under:5.583.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.594.0%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 93.7%
team_total:home:under:0.56.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.577.1%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 76.5%
team_total:home:under:1.522.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.553.3%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 52.6%
team_total:home:under:2.546.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.531.0%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 29.8%
team_total:home:under:3.569.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.557.1%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 56.5%
team_total:away:under:0.542.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.520.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.3%
team_total:away:under:1.579.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.55.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.1%
team_total:away:under:2.594.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.51.1%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 0.8%
team_total:away:under:3.598.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.536.8%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 35.6%
spread:away:+2.563.2%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 62.5%
spread:home:-1.557.9%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 55.8%
spread:away:+1.542.1%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 41.4%
spread:home:-0.577.8%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 76.1%
spread:away:+0.522.2%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 21.6%
spread:home:+0.591.6%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.3%
spread:away:-0.58.4%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.4%
spread:home:+1.597.5%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 97.3%
spread:away:-1.52.5%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.0%
spread:home:+2.599.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.50.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home90.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away9.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.20 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 3155970901066069920 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.20 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Manchester City win77.8%77.9% ± 0.1+0.13 pts
Draw13.8%13.5% ± 0.1−0.27 pts
Ipswich win8.4%8.5% ± 0.1+0.15 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.20 pts (spread:home:-2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Manchester City
43.0% ± 0.2 (exact 42.9%)
Ipswich
6.0% ± 0.1 (exact 6.0%)

Goal difference (Manchester City minus Ipswich)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.0% ± 0.0
  3. -40.1% ± 0.0
  4. -30.5% ± 0.0
  5. -21.8% ± 0.0
  6. -16.1% ± 0.1
  7. 013.5% ± 0.1
  8. 120.1% ± 0.1
  9. 220.9% ± 0.1
  10. 316.9% ± 0.1
  11. 410.5% ± 0.1
  12. 55.8% ± 0.1
  13. >53.8% ± 0.1

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Manchester City 2–0 Ipswich10.1% ± 0.110.2%
Manchester City 3–0 Ipswich9.6% ± 0.19.5%
Manchester City 2–1 Ipswich8.6% ± 0.18.6%
Manchester City 3–1 Ipswich8.0% ± 0.18.1%
Manchester City 1–0 Ipswich7.3% ± 0.17.1%

Expected goals (simulated)

Manchester City
mean 2.81 · variance 2.81 · ± 0.005
Ipswich
mean 0.84 · variance 0.84 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.3 pts (to 13.5%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Manchester City and +0.00 for Ipswich.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Manchester City win77.8%78.0%+0.2 pts
Draw13.8%13.5%−0.3 pts
Ipswich win8.4%8.5%+0.2 pts
Expected goals2.81 – 0.852.81 – 0.85+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 100 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Manchester City

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: N. O'ReillyCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice G. Donnarumma)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Ipswich

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: I. FatawuESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Walton)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move manchester city win by +0.3 pts (to 78.1%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Manchester City and −0.02 for Ipswich.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Manchester City win77.8%78.1%+0.3 pts
Draw13.8%13.5%−0.3 pts
Ipswich win8.4%8.3%−0.0 pts
Expected goals2.81 – 0.852.79 – 0.82−0.02 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 100 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off

Manchester City rate ×0.99 band 0.68–1.40

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07878787878787885 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.10202020202020212 · contribution 0.001 (-0.007 to 0.009) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Ipswich rate ×0.97 band 0.74–1.50

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.10202020202020212 · contribution -0.002 (-0.009 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07878787878787885 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move manchester city win by +0.3 pts (to 78.1%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Manchester City and −0.02 for Ipswich.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Manchester City win77.8%78.1%+0.3 pts
Draw13.8%13.5%−0.3 pts
Ipswich win8.4%8.3%−0.0 pts
Expected goals2.81 – 0.852.79 – 0.82−0.02 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 100 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Manchester City

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: N. O'ReillyCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice G. Donnarumma)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Ipswich

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: I. FatawuESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Walton)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off

Manchester City rate ×0.99 band 0.68–1.40

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07878787878787885 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.10202020202020212 · contribution 0.001 (-0.007 to 0.009) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Ipswich rate ×0.97 band 0.74–1.50

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.10202020202020212 · contribution -0.002 (-0.009 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07878787878787885 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Manchester City win77.8%80.3%+2.5 pts
Draw13.8%12.4%−1.4 pts
Ipswich win8.4%7.3%−1.0 pts
Expected goals—2.93 – 0.81+0.12 / −0.04

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 563 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)E. Haaland 56% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Manchester City

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 77% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
E. Haaland F55.7% ± 0.219.6% ± 0.10.81 ± 0.00383%
R. Cherki M28.9% ± 0.14.6% ± 0.10.34 ± 0.00289%
A. Semenyo M27.7% ± 0.14.2% ± 0.10.32 ± 0.00286%
N. O'Reilly D14.0% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00151%
M. Guehi D8.1% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00179%
J. Doku F7.0% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.0014%
J. Gvardiol D5.5% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00160%
R. Dias D3.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00186%

Ipswich

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 100% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
L. Davis D16.7% ± 0.11.5% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00173%
Emersonn F11.2% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00173%
D. O'Shea D10.2% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00179%
C. Akpom F7.7% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00113%
A. Ouattara D6.7% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00161%
M. Nunez M6.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00132%
J. Clarke F4.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00138%
J. Greaves D3.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00154%

Run 978 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 473, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Manchester City)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Ipswich)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Premier League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationManchester City 2.8 d rest (short) · Ipswich 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:12 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Manchester City

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 4 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H AEK Athens FC +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.8 d before (H Paris Saint Germain); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H AEK Athens FC) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Thu 17 SeptEFLH NorwichW 5–0counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptPLH SunderlandW 5–3counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctPLA LiverpoolW 3–0counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLH Paris Saint GermainNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLH AEK Athens FC+3.2 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLA Aston Villa+6.9 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLH Brighton+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 66 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: P. Foden (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.9 CONFIRMED

Manchester City: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
G. Donnarumma · regularG9018090' Italy, 11.8 d before
E. Haaland · regularF8014767' Norway, 12.8 d before
A. Semenyo · regularM9090—
E. FernándezM8080—
N. O&apos;ReillyD6666—
E. Anderson · regularM9023279' England, 13.9 d before; 63' England, 10.8 d before
M. Guéhi · regularD9024390' England, 13.9 d before; 63' England, 10.8 d before
R. Cherki · regularM9012030' France, 11.8 d before
I. NdiayeM5656—
Rúben Dias · regularD9018090' Portugal, 12.8 d before
Matheus NunesD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 8 players, 930 minutes — G. Donnarumma (90' Italy, 11.8 d before); M. Kovačić (90' Croatia, 13.9 d before; 88' Croatia, 10.8 d before); E. Haaland (67' Norway, 12.8 d before); E. Anderson (79' England, 13.9 d before; 63' England, 10.8 d before); M. Guéhi (90' England, 13.9 d before; 63' England, 10.8 d before); J. Gvardiol (90' Croatia, 13.9 d before; 90' Croatia, 10.8 d before); R. Cherki (30' France, 11.8 d before); Rúben Dias (90' Portugal, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Ipswich

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Nottingham Forest +6.2 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLA EvertonL 0–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH FulhamW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctPLH Nottingham Forest+6.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 10 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 2 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.8 CONFIRMED

Ipswich: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
FlorentinoM6363—
S. LukićM9018090' Serbia, 12.8 d before
A. OuattaraD9090—
D. MaedaM8181—
EmersonnF7171—
J. PhilogeneM6363—
J. EncisoM7171—
C. WaltonG9090—
D. O&apos;Shea · regularD9090—
L. DavisD9090—
I. DiopD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — S. Lukić (90' Serbia, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Manchester City78%76%80%
Draw14%15%13%
Ipswich8%9%8%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 21 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Manchester City

  • Manchester City: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.4 and conceded 0.8 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W3–0at Liverpool11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W5–3v Sunderland20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Manchester United13 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Coventry5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1at Crystal Palace28 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Bournemouth23 Aug · in model evidence

Ipswich

  • Ipswich: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W2–1v Fulham10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Everton19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Crystal Palace12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Liverpool4 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–5at Manchester United30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Sunderland22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals3%
1 goal9%
2 goals17%
3 goals21%
4 goals19%
5 goals14%
6 or more16%
Over 1.588%
Over 2.571%
Over 3.550%
Both teams score54%

Manchester City

Expected goals2.81
Scores at least once94%
Scores 2 or more77%
Clean sheet43%

Ipswich

Expected goals0.85
Scores at least once57%
Scores 2 or more21%
Clean sheet6%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season1st v 9th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Manchester City

1st of 20 · 15 pts · W5 D0 L0 from 5 games · scored 13, conceded 5

Home W3 D0 L0 (scored 8, conceded 4) · Away W2 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WWWWW (most recent last)

Ipswich

9th of 20 · 9 pts · W3 D0 L3 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 12

Home W2 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 5, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games WLWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Manchester City to win77.8%77.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 80¢
Draw13.8%13.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 13¢
Ipswich to win8.4%8.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Double chance
Manchester City or draw limited evidence91.6%91.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Ipswich or draw limited evidence22.2%22.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 21¢
Not a draw limited evidence86.2%86.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Draw no bet
Manchester City to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence90.3%90.2% ± 0.1no
Ipswich to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence9.7%9.8% ± 0.1no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence97.3%97.4% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 99¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence2.7%2.6% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 4¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence88.2%87.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 88¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence11.8%12.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 14¢
Over 2.5 goals in total70.7%70.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 71¢
Under 2.5 goals in total29.3%29.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 32¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence49.7%49.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence50.3%50.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 54¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence30.5%30.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence69.5%69.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence16.4%16.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence83.6%83.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence53.9%53.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 53¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence46.1%46.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 49¢
Team goals
Manchester City over 0.5 goals limited evidence94.0%94.0% ± 0.1no
Manchester City under 0.5 goals limited evidence6.0%6.0% ± 0.1no
Manchester City over 1.5 goals limited evidence77.1%77.0% ± 0.1no
Manchester City under 1.5 goals limited evidence22.9%23.0% ± 0.1no
Manchester City over 2.5 goals limited evidence53.3%53.3% ± 0.2no
Manchester City under 2.5 goals limited evidence46.7%46.7% ± 0.2no
Manchester City over 3.5 goals limited evidence31.0%31.1% ± 0.1no
Manchester City under 3.5 goals limited evidence69.0%68.9% ± 0.1no
Ipswich over 0.5 goals limited evidence57.1%57.0% ± 0.2no
Ipswich under 0.5 goals limited evidence42.9%43.0% ± 0.2no
Ipswich over 1.5 goals limited evidence20.8%20.7% ± 0.1no
Ipswich under 1.5 goals limited evidence79.2%79.3% ± 0.1no
Ipswich over 2.5 goals limited evidence5.4%5.4% ± 0.1no
Ipswich under 2.5 goals limited evidence94.6%94.6% ± 0.1no
Ipswich over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.1%1.1% ± 0.0no
Ipswich under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.9%98.9% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Manchester City to win by 3 or more limited evidence36.8%37.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 36¢
Manchester City to win by 2 or more limited evidence57.9%57.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 59¢
Manchester City to win by 1 or more limited evidence77.8%77.9% ± 0.1no
Manchester City not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence91.6%91.5% ± 0.1no
Manchester City not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence97.5%97.6% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Manchester City not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence99.4%99.4% ± 0.0yes · NO · no resting ask
Ipswich to win by 3 or more limited evidence0.6%0.6% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 20¢
Ipswich to win by 2 or more limited evidence2.5%2.4% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 5¢
Ipswich to win by 1 or more limited evidence8.4%8.5% ± 0.1no
Ipswich not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence22.2%22.1% ± 0.1no
Ipswich not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence42.1%42.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Ipswich not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence63.2%63.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 65¢
Clean sheet
Manchester City clean sheet grid42.9%43.0% ± 0.2no
Ipswich clean sheet grid6.0%6.0% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—13.5% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City by exactly 1—20.1% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City by exactly 2—20.9% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City by exactly 3—16.9% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City by exactly 4—10.5% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City by exactly 5—5.8% ± 0.1not listed
Ipswich by exactly 1—6.1% ± 0.1not listed
Ipswich by exactly 2—1.8% ± 0.0not listed
Ipswich by exactly 3—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
Ipswich by exactly 4—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Ipswich by exactly 5—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Manchester City by 6 or more—3.8% ± 0.1not listed
Ipswich by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Manchester City 2–0 Ipswich—10.1% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City 3–0 Ipswich—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City 2–1 Ipswich—8.6% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City 3–1 Ipswich—8.0% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester City 1–0 Ipswich—7.3% ± 0.1not listed

Manchester City v Ipswich: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Ipswich to win (90 minutes)
8%
8%
YES on Ipswich to WinIpswich wins in 90 minutes
8%8¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,829 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Manchester City to win (90 minutes)
78%
80%
YES on Manchester City to WinManchester City wins in 90 minutes
78%80¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 18,474 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
14%
13%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
14%13¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 13,729 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawManchester City or Ipswich wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
86%88¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 18,165 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Ipswich to WinManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
92%93¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 25,451 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Manchester City to WinIpswich wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
22%21¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,602 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
97%
98%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 24,484 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
3%4¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 325 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
88%
87%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
88%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 680 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
12%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,465 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
71%
70%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
71%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 587 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
29%32¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,791 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
50%
47%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
50%48¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
50%54¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,757 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
30%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
30%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,401 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
70%73¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,693 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
16%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 510 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
84%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,025 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
54%
52%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
54%53¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 6 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
46%49¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 696 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Winning margin
Ipswich to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Ipswich to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsIpswich wins by 2 goals or more
2%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 882 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Ipswich to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester City wins or the match is drawn, or Ipswich wins by 1 goal · Ipswich not by 2+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,136 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Ipswich to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
1%
—
Limited evidence · No Kalshi quote
YES on Ipswich to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsIpswich wins by 3 goals or more
1%20¢
No two-sided Kalshi quote, so no comparison · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Ipswich to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester City wins or the match is drawn, or Ipswich wins by 2 goals or fewer · Ipswich not by 3+ goals
99%—
Kalshi NO price unavailable
Manchester City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
58%
57%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester City wins by 2 goals or more
58%59¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 754 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Manchester City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsIpswich wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester City wins by 1 goal · Manchester City not by 2+ goals
42%44¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,326 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Manchester City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
37%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester City wins by 3 goals or more
37%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,508 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Manchester City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsIpswich wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester City wins by 2 goals or fewer · Manchester City not by 3+ goals
63%65¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,940 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 77.8% · draw 13.8% · away 8.4%
Expected goals
2.81 – 0.85
Manchester City eligible matches
151 (150 with xG)
Ipswich eligible matches
44 (44 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Manchester CityOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctLiverpoolaway3–01.36–0.94W
20 SeptSunderlandhome5–32.82–3.57W
13 SeptManchester Unitedaway1–01.10–1.00W
8 SeptFC Portoaway2–02.32–0.28W
5 SeptCoventryhome1–02.12–1.37W
28 AugCrystal Palaceaway4–12.21–0.66W
IpswichOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctFulhamhome2–11.22–1.87W
19 SeptEvertonaway0–11.44–2.24L
12 SeptCrystal Palaceaway3–21.67–0.62W
4 SeptLiverpoolhome0–20.75–0.69L
30 AugManchester Unitedaway2–52.01–4.56L
22 AugSunderlandhome2–11.80–0.66W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17MCIIPS-BTTS
53.9%52.0%+1.9 pts0.51 / 0.530.496 / 696Comparable
seen 21 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Ipswich to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS
8.4%7.5%+0.9 pts0.07 / 0.080.9314,829 / 25,451Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Manchester City to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI
77.8%79.5%−1.7 pts0.79 / 0.800.2118,474 / 6,602Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-TIE
13.8%12.5%+1.3 pts0.12 / 0.130.8813,729 / 18,165Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Ipswich to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS2
2.5%3.0%−0.5 pts0.01 / 0.050.99882 / 2,136Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Ipswich to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS3
0.6%——— / 0.20—5 / 0No two-sided Kalshi quote
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI2
57.9%57.5%+0.4 pts0.56 / 0.590.44754 / 2,326Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI3
36.8%35.5%+1.3 pts0.35 / 0.360.651,508 / 4,940Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-1
97.3%97.5%−0.2 pts0.96 / 0.990.0424,484 / 325Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-2
88.2%87.0%+1.2 pts0.86 / 0.880.14680 / 3,465Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-3
70.7%69.5%+1.2 pts0.68 / 0.710.32587 / 5,791Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-4
49.7%47.0%+2.7 pts0.46 / 0.480.540 / 3,757Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-5
30.5%28.5%+2.0 pts0.27 / 0.300.732,401 / 1,693Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-6
16.4%13.5%+2.9 pts0.12 / 0.150.88510 / 2,025Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:12:11.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home75.7%73.3% – 77.3%80.0%1.251077.8%+2.1 pts
1x2:draw14.9%13.7% – 16.1%15.8%6.351013.8%−1.1 pts
1x2:away9.3%8.4% – 10.8%9.8%10.17108.4%−1.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:20 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.568.9%68.6% – 70.2%74.6%1.34770.7%+1.8 pts
total_goals:under:2.531.1%29.8% – 31.4%32.9%3.04729.3%−1.8 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:21 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 10.25 · draw 6.60 · home 1.2611/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 11.00 · draw 6.50 · home 1.2011/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 10.09 · draw 6.87 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 8.30 · draw 5.61 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 9.50 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 9.50 · draw 5.75 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 9.60 · draw 6.60 · home 1.2611/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 10.70 · draw 6.91 · home 1.2911/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 10.25 · draw 6.20 · home 1.2611/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 10.50 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 3.0411/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.38 · under 2.5 3.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.1011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:12:11.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:08 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Manchester Cityok11/10/2026, 01:39:09 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Ipswichok11/10/2026, 01:39:10 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home77.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw13.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away8.4%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x91.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x222.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1286.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes53.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no46.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.597.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.52.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.588.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.511.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.570.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.529.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.549.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.550.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.530.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.569.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.516.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.583.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.594.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.56.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.577.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.522.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.553.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.546.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.531.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.569.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.557.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.542.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.520.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.579.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.536.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.563.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.557.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.542.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.577.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.522.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.591.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.58.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.597.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.52.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.599.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.50.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home90.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away9.7%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 473 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:12:11