Got%OnIt
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UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Atletico MadridvManchester United

Atletico Madrid
44%
Draw
24%
Manchester United
32%

Got%OnIt gives Atletico Madrid a 44% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.4 for Manchester United.
  • Atletico Madrid won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • Manchester United won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Atletico Madrid are 26th of 36 after 1 games; Manchester United are 4th.
  • Atletico Madrid have won 0 and lost 1; Manchester United have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Atletico Madrid

  • W2–1at Alaves10 Oct
  • W2–1v Real Madrid20 Sept
  • W4–0v Osasuna16 Sept
  • W3–0at Real Sociedad13 Sept
  • L1–2at Liverpool9 Sept
  • L0–3at Athletic Club5 Sept

Manchester United

  • D1–1v Tottenham10 Oct
  • D1–1at Fulham20 Sept
  • L0–1v Manchester City13 Sept
  • W4–0v Sabah FA10 Sept
  • D2–2at Everton6 Sept
  • W5–2v Ipswich30 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Atletico Madrid win43.6%57.7%+14.1 pts
Draw24.1%19.2%−4.9 pts
Manchester United win32.3%23.1%−9.2 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.69 and 1.43). Atletico Madrid 1.69 · Manchester United 1.43 · total 3.12 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Atletico Madrid–Manchester United)

  1. 1–111.0%
  2. 2–19.0%
  3. 1–27.6%
  4. 1–07.2%
  5. 2–26.4%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Atletico Madrid

Expected goals
1.69
Scoring vs average
×0.89
Conceding vs average
×1.08

Manchester United

Expected goals
1.43
Scoring vs average
×1.08
Conceding vs average
×0.89
  • Atletico Madrid (home): expected to score ×0.89 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.08 the average.
  • Manchester United (away): expected to score ×1.08 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.89 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Atletico Madrid
159 matches (157 with xG)
Manchester United
141 matches (139 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home43.6%under-stated by 6.8 pts on 101 matches (this competition); conservative 38.7%
1x2:draw24.1%over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 16.8%
1x2:away32.3%under-stated by 1.5 pts on 110 matches (this competition); conservative 27.8%
double_chance:1x67.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x256.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes62.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no37.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.54.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.582.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.517.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.560.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.539.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.537.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.562.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.520.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.579.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.59.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.590.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.581.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.518.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.550.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.549.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.524.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.576.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.59.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.590.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.576.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.524.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.541.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.558.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.517.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.582.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.55.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.594.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.59.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.590.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.522.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.577.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.543.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.556.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.567.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.532.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.585.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.514.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.594.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.55.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home57.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away42.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.36 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 5175537853110047965 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.23 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Atletico Madrid win43.6%43.8% ± 0.2+0.14 pts
Draw24.1%23.6% ± 0.1−0.49 pts
Manchester United win32.3%32.6% ± 0.1+0.35 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.36 pts (total_goals:under:2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Atletico Madrid
23.9% ± 0.1 (exact 24.0%)
Manchester United
18.3% ± 0.1 (exact 18.4%)

Goal difference (Atletico Madrid minus Manchester United)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.3% ± 0.0
  3. -41.2% ± 0.0
  4. -33.9% ± 0.1
  5. -29.5% ± 0.1
  6. -117.6% ± 0.1
  7. 023.6% ± 0.1
  8. 120.8% ± 0.1
  9. 213.3% ± 0.1
  10. 36.2% ± 0.1
  11. 42.4% ± 0.0
  12. 50.8% ± 0.0
  13. >50.3% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Atletico Madrid 1–1 Manchester United10.6% ± 0.111.0%
Atletico Madrid 2–1 Manchester United9.0% ± 0.19.0%
Atletico Madrid 1–2 Manchester United7.6% ± 0.17.6%
Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester United7.2% ± 0.17.2%
Atletico Madrid 2–2 Manchester United6.5% ± 0.16.4%

Expected goals (simulated)

Atletico Madrid
mean 1.70 · variance 1.70 · ± 0.004
Manchester United
mean 1.44 · variance 1.44 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move atletico madrid win by +3.8 pts (to 47.4%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Atletico Madrid and −0.16 for Manchester United.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Atletico Madrid win43.6%47.4%+3.8 pts
Draw24.1%23.9%−0.2 pts
Manchester United win32.3%28.7%−3.6 pts
Expected goals1.69 – 1.431.69 – 1.27+0.00 / −0.16

Data labels: CONFIRMED 135 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Atletico Madrid

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • O. Vargas M Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • R. Mendoza M Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Oblak)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Manchester United

Attack ×0.89 band 0.83–0.94 ESTIMATED · 22.7% of goals share out

  • M. de Ligt D Missing Fixture (Back Injury) · share 1.0% · effect −1.1% REPORTED
  • N. Mazraoui D Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Heaton G Missing Fixture (Abdominal strain) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Ugarte M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • B. Šeško F Missing Fixture (Leg Injury) · share 16.6% · effect −16.6% REPORTED
  • P. Dorgu D Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 5.1% · effect −5.1% REPORTED

Returning: K. Darlow, A. DialloESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice S. Lammens)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move draw by −0.4 pts (to 23.7%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Atletico Madrid and −0.01 for Manchester United.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Atletico Madrid win43.6%43.9%+0.3 pts
Draw24.1%23.7%−0.4 pts
Manchester United win32.3%32.5%+0.2 pts
Expected goals1.69 – 1.431.68 – 1.41−0.01 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 135 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Atletico Madrid rate ×0.99 band 0.70–1.48

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.16969696969696968 · contribution -0.003 (-0.015 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.09393939393939388 · contribution 0.001 (-0.006 to 0.008) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Manchester United rate ×0.99 band 0.70–1.47

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.09393939393939388 · contribution -0.002 (-0.008 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.16969696969696968 · contribution 0.001 (-0.011 to 0.014) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move atletico madrid win by +3.7 pts (to 47.4%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Atletico Madrid and −0.17 for Manchester United.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Atletico Madrid win43.6%47.4%+3.7 pts
Draw24.1%24.0%−0.1 pts
Manchester United win32.3%28.6%−3.6 pts
Expected goals1.69 – 1.431.68 – 1.25−0.01 / −0.17

Data labels: CONFIRMED 135 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Atletico Madrid

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • O. Vargas M Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • R. Mendoza M Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Oblak)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Manchester United

Attack ×0.89 band 0.83–0.94 ESTIMATED · 22.7% of goals share out

  • M. de Ligt D Missing Fixture (Back Injury) · share 1.0% · effect −1.1% REPORTED
  • N. Mazraoui D Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Heaton G Missing Fixture (Abdominal strain) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Ugarte M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • B. Šeško F Missing Fixture (Leg Injury) · share 16.6% · effect −16.6% REPORTED
  • P. Dorgu D Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 5.1% · effect −5.1% REPORTED

Returning: K. Darlow, A. DialloESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice S. Lammens)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Atletico Madrid rate ×0.99 band 0.70–1.48

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.16969696969696968 · contribution -0.003 (-0.015 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.09393939393939388 · contribution 0.001 (-0.006 to 0.008) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Manchester United rate ×0.99 band 0.70–1.47

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.09393939393939388 · contribution -0.002 (-0.008 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.16969696969696968 · contribution 0.001 (-0.011 to 0.014) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Atletico Madrid win43.6%51.8%+8.2 pts
Draw24.1%21.3%−2.9 pts
Manchester United win32.3%26.9%−5.4 pts
Expected goals—2.06 – 1.45+0.37 / +0.02

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 178 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)B. Mbeumo 22% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Atletico Madrid

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 75% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
A. Lookman F13.9% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00173%
A. Sorloth F12.5% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.0010%
G. Simeone M12.4% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00182%
J. Alvarez F11.6% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.0019%
A. Baena M9.7% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00169%
A. Grimaldo D8.5% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00184%
M. Llorente D6.4% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00192%
D. Hancko D4.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00163%

Manchester United

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 67% of goals assigned · 3 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
B. Mbeumo F22.3% ± 0.12.7% ± 0.10.25 ± 0.00286%
B. Fernandes M21.6% ± 0.12.5% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00286%
M. Cunha M20.4% ± 0.12.3% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.00282%
L. Martinez D2.7% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00181%
M. Mount M2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00018%
K. Mainoo M2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00081%
A. Diallo M1.6% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00029%
L. Shaw D1.6% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00065%

Run 949 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 444, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Manchester United)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Atletico Madrid)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationAtletico Madrid 3.2 d rest (short) · Manchester United 3.1 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:10 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Atletico Madrid

3.2 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 4 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Espanyol +3.7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 13 SeptLLA Real SociedadW 3–0counted as workload
  • Wed 16 SeptLLH OsasunaW 4–0counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptLLH Real MadridW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLA AlavesW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctLLA Espanyol+3.7 d
  • Tue 20 OctUCLA VfB Stuttgart+7 d
  • Sat 24 OctLLH Deportivo La Coruna+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 67 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 74.7 CONFIRMED

Atletico Madrid: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Robin Le NormandD6215290' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before
J. CardosoM9090—
G. Simeone · regularM7373—
Koke · regularM9090—
Álex Grimaldo · regularD9090—
C. RomeroD9090—
Marcos Llorente · regularD9090—
J. Oblak · regularG9027090' Slovenia, 10 d before; 90' Slovenia, 7 d before
J. DavidF4545—
A. Lookman · regularM4545—
Pablo BarriosM5757—

International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 714 minutes — Robin Le Normand (90' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before); Marc Pubill (0' Spain, 10 d before; 90' Spain, 7 d before); J. Oblak (90' Slovenia, 10 d before; 90' Slovenia, 7 d before); Álex Baena (46' Spain, 10 d before; 45' Spain, 7 d before); D. Hancko (8' Slovakia, 11 d before; 90' Slovakia, 7 d before); M. Hjulmand (75' Denmark, 12 d before; 90' Denmark, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Manchester United

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Leeds +4.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Wed 16 SeptEFLH BrightonL 2–3counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptPLA FulhamD 1–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH TottenhamD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 18 OctPLA Leeds+4.8 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Como+7.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLH Bournemouth+11.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 81.5 CONFIRMED

Manchester United: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Bruno Fernandes · regularM9027090' Portugal, 12 d before; 90' Portugal, 9 d before
A. DialloM5959—
K. Mainoo · regularM9090—
L. YoroD591490' France, 11 d before; 90' France, 8 d before
B. Mbeumo · regularF9090—
Matheus Cunha · regularM9090—
Y. Tielemans · regularM5914990' Belgium, 11 d before
L. Shaw · regularD9090—
Lisandro Martínez · regularD9090—
H. Maguire · regularD9090—
S. Lammens · regularG9018090' Belgium, 11 d before; 0' Belgium, 8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 568 minutes — Bruno Fernandes (90' Portugal, 12 d before; 90' Portugal, 9 d before); L. Yoro (0' France, 11 d before; 90' France, 8 d before); J. Zirkzee (20' Netherlands, 12 d before; 44' Netherlands, 9 d before); Diogo Dalot (27' Portugal, 12 d before; 27' Portugal, 9 d before); Y. Tielemans (90' Belgium, 11 d before); S. Lammens (90' Belgium, 11 d before; 0' Belgium, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Atletico Madrid

  • O. Vargas · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture
  • R. Mendoza · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture

Manchester United

  • B. Sesko · injury / absence: Leg Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. de Ligt · injury / absence: Back Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. Ugarte · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • N. Mazraoui · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
  • P. Dorgu · injury / absence: Hamstring Injury · Missing Fixture
  • T. Heaton · injury / absence: Abdominal strain · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Atletico Madrid44%48%51%
Draw24%25%25%
Manchester United32%27%27%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 20 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Atletico Madrid a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (44% vs 51%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Atletico Madrid

  • Atletico Madrid: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.0 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L1–2at Liverpool9 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Arsenal5 May · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Arsenal29 Apr · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Barcelona14 Apr · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Barcelona8 Apr · in model evidence
  • L2–3at Tottenham18 Mar · in model evidence

Manchester United

  • Manchester United: 10 finished matches (7 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • W4–0v Sabah FA10 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Bayern München12 Dec · in model evidence
  • D3–3at Galatasaray29 Nov · in model evidence
  • L3–4at FC Copenhagen8 Nov · in model evidence
  • W1–0v FC Copenhagen24 Oct · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Galatasaray3 Oct · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal13%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals11%
6 or more10%
Over 1.582%
Over 2.560%
Over 3.538%
Both teams score62%

Atletico Madrid

Expected goals1.69
Scores at least once82%
Scores 2 or more50%
Clean sheet24%

Manchester United

Expected goals1.43
Scores at least once76%
Scores 2 or more42%
Clean sheet18%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability8 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

8 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Atletico Madrid

  • O. VargasOutInactive
  • R. MendozaOutInactive

Manchester United

  • B. SeskoOutLeg Injury
  • M. de LigtOutBack Injury
  • M. UgarteOutKnee Injury
  • N. MazraouiOutInjury
  • P. DorguOutHamstring Injury
  • T. HeatonOutAbdominal strain

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season26th v 4th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Atletico Madrid

26th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 2

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Manchester United

4th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 4, conceded 0

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 4, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Atletico Madrid to win43.6%43.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 51¢
Draw24.1%23.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Manchester United to win32.3%32.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Double chance
Atletico Madrid or draw limited evidence67.7%67.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 74¢
Manchester United or draw limited evidence56.4%56.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 50¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.9%76.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
Draw no bet
Atletico Madrid to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence57.5%57.3% ± 0.2no
Manchester United to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence42.5%42.7% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.3%95.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 97¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence4.7%4.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 4¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence82.1%82.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 86¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence17.9%17.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 16¢
Over 2.5 goals in total60.3%60.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 66¢
Under 2.5 goals in total39.7%39.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 36¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence37.9%38.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 43¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence62.1%61.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 58¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence20.5%20.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence79.5%79.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence9.6%9.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 12¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence90.4%90.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence62.3%62.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 66¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence37.7%37.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 35¢
Team goals
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals limited evidence81.6%81.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 88¢
Atletico Madrid under 0.5 goals limited evidence18.4%18.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 15¢
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals limited evidence50.4%50.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 59¢
Atletico Madrid under 1.5 goals limited evidence49.6%49.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 42¢
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals limited evidence24.0%24.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 32¢
Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals limited evidence76.0%75.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 70¢
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 goals limited evidence9.2%9.2% ± 0.1no
Atletico Madrid under 3.5 goals limited evidence90.8%90.8% ± 0.1no
Manchester United over 0.5 goals limited evidence76.0%76.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 77¢
Manchester United under 0.5 goals limited evidence24.0%23.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 26¢
Manchester United over 1.5 goals limited evidence41.8%42.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 43¢
Manchester United under 1.5 goals limited evidence58.2%57.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 61¢
Manchester United over 2.5 goals limited evidence17.3%17.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Manchester United under 2.5 goals limited evidence82.7%82.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Manchester United over 3.5 goals limited evidence5.7%5.7% ± 0.1no
Manchester United under 3.5 goals limited evidence94.3%94.3% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Atletico Madrid to win by 3 or more limited evidence9.7%9.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Atletico Madrid to win by 2 or more limited evidence22.9%23.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 29¢
Atletico Madrid to win by 1 or more limited evidence43.6%43.8% ± 0.2no
Atletico Madrid not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence67.7%67.4% ± 0.1no
Atletico Madrid not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence85.1%85.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 90¢
Atletico Madrid not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence94.6%94.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
Manchester United to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.4%5.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 5¢
Manchester United to win by 2 or more limited evidence14.9%15.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Manchester United to win by 1 or more limited evidence32.3%32.6% ± 0.1no
Manchester United not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence56.4%56.2% ± 0.2no
Manchester United not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence77.1%77.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Manchester United not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence90.3%90.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Clean sheet
Atletico Madrid clean sheet grid24.0%23.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 26¢
Manchester United clean sheet grid18.4%18.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 15¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—23.6% ± 0.1not listed
Atletico Madrid by exactly 1—20.8% ± 0.1not listed
Atletico Madrid by exactly 2—13.3% ± 0.1not listed
Atletico Madrid by exactly 3—6.2% ± 0.1not listed
Atletico Madrid by exactly 4—2.4% ± 0.0not listed
Atletico Madrid by exactly 5—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
Manchester United by exactly 1—17.6% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester United by exactly 2—9.5% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester United by exactly 3—3.9% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester United by exactly 4—1.2% ± 0.0not listed
Manchester United by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Atletico Madrid by 6 or more—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Manchester United by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Atletico Madrid 1–1 Manchester United—10.6% ± 0.1not listed
Atletico Madrid 2–1 Manchester United—9.0% ± 0.1not listed
Atletico Madrid 1–2 Manchester United—7.6% ± 0.1not listed
Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester United—7.2% ± 0.1not listed
Atletico Madrid 2–2 Manchester United—6.5% ± 0.1not listed

Atletico Madrid v Manchester United: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes)
44%
51%
YES on Atletico Madrid to WinAtletico Madrid wins in 90 minutes
44%51¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 98,830 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Manchester United to win (90 minutes)
32%
27%
YES on Manchester United to WinManchester United wins in 90 minutes
32%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 74,741 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
25%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 144,726 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawAtletico Madrid or Manchester United wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%76¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,299 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Manchester United to WinAtletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
68%74¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,271 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid to WinManchester United wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
56%50¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 28 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,580 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%4¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,331 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
85%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
82%86¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,887 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
18%16¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,973 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
65%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
60%66¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,613 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
40%36¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,446 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
38%
43%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
38%43¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,229 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
62%58¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,721 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
25%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
20%25¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,249 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
80%76¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
10%12¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,342 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
90%89¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,127 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
62%
66%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
62%66¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,005 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
38%35¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,992 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Winning margin
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
23%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid wins by 2 goals or more
23%29¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,332 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester United wins or the match is drawn, or Atletico Madrid wins by 1 goal · Atletico Madrid not by 2+ goals
77%73¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,349 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid wins by 3 goals or more
10%14¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,511 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester United wins or the match is drawn, or Atletico Madrid wins by 2 goals or fewer · Atletico Madrid not by 3+ goals
90%88¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,873 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
15%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester United wins by 2 goals or more
15%11¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,123 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Manchester United to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester United wins by 1 goal · Manchester United not by 2+ goals
85%90¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,968 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester United wins by 3 goals or more
5%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 19,393 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Manchester United to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester United wins by 2 goals or fewer · Manchester United not by 3+ goals
95%96¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
Team goals
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
87%
Limited evidence
YES on Atletico Madrid Over 0.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid scores 1 goal or more
82%88¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 702 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid Over 0.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid does not score · Atletico Madrid under 0.5 goals
18%15¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 64 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
50%
59%
Limited evidence
YES on Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid scores 2 goals or more
50%59¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 518 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid scores 1 goal or fewer · Atletico Madrid under 1.5 goals
50%42¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 200 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
31%
Limited evidence
YES on Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid scores 3 goals or more
24%32¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 412 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid scores 2 goals or fewer · Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals
76%70¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Manchester United over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
76%
76%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United Over 0.5 GoalsManchester United scores 1 goal or more
76%77¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Manchester United Over 0.5 GoalsManchester United does not score · Manchester United under 0.5 goals
24%26¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,599 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Manchester United over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
42%
41%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United Over 1.5 GoalsManchester United scores 2 goals or more
42%43¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 13,066 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Manchester United Over 1.5 GoalsManchester United scores 1 goal or fewer · Manchester United under 1.5 goals
58%61¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 470 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Manchester United over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
17%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United Over 2.5 GoalsManchester United scores 3 goals or more
17%19¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,221 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Manchester United Over 2.5 GoalsManchester United scores 2 goals or fewer · Manchester United under 2.5 goals
83%85¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 31 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 43.6% · draw 24.1% · away 32.3%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.43
Atletico Madrid eligible matches
159 (157 with xG)
Manchester United eligible matches
141 (139 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 7% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's away probability is 6% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Atletico MadridOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctAlavesaway2–12.06–1.13W
20 SeptReal Madridhome2–12.35–0.30W
16 SeptOsasunahome4–03.99–0.48W
13 SeptReal Sociedadaway3–02.05–0.27W
9 SeptLiverpoolaway1–20.91–1.62L
5 SeptAthletic Clubaway0–31.02–1.41L
Manchester UnitedOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctTottenhamhome1–10.82–1.62D
20 SeptFulhamaway1–11.60–1.62D
13 SeptManchester Cityhome0–11.00–1.10L
10 SeptSabah FAhome4–0—W
6 SeptEvertonaway2–20.69–1.01D
30 AugIpswichhome5–24.56–2.01W

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13ATMMUN-BTTS
62.3%65.5%—0.65 / 0.660.352,005 / 1,992Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM
43.6%50.5%−6.9 pts0.50 / 0.510.5098,830 / 28Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN
32.3%26.5%+5.8 pts0.26 / 0.270.7474,741 / 3,271Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-TIE
24.1%24.5%−0.4 pts0.24 / 0.250.76144,726 / 3,299Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM2
22.9%28.0%—0.27 / 0.290.738,332 / 8,349Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM3
9.7%13.0%—0.12 / 0.140.883,511 / 9,873Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN2
14.9%10.5%—0.10 / 0.110.901,123 / 8,968Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN3
5.4%4.5%—0.04 / 0.050.9619,393 / 1Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM1
81.6%86.5%—0.85 / 0.880.15702 / 64Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM2
50.4%58.5%—0.58 / 0.590.42518 / 200Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM3
24.0%31.0%—0.30 / 0.320.70412 / 2Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN1
76.0%75.5%—0.74 / 0.770.265 / 9,599Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN2
41.8%41.0%—0.39 / 0.430.6113,066 / 470Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN3
17.3%17.0%—0.15 / 0.190.851,221 / 31Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-1
95.3%96.5%—0.96 / 0.970.043,580 / 1,331Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-2
82.1%85.0%—0.84 / 0.860.168,887 / 4,973Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-3
60.3%65.0%—0.64 / 0.660.365,613 / 4,446Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-4
37.9%42.5%—0.42 / 0.430.582,229 / 3,721Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-5
20.5%24.5%—0.24 / 0.250.763,249 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-6
9.6%11.5%—0.11 / 0.120.891,342 / 5,127Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:10:59.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home48.0%45.9% – 49.3%50.9%1.971043.6%−4.4 pts
1x2:draw24.6%24.0% – 25.9%25.6%3.901024.1%−0.5 pts
1x2:away27.5%26.0% – 28.3%28.6%3.501032.3%+4.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.563.6%62.8% – 65.2%68.5%1.467——
total_goals:under:2.536.4%34.8% – 37.2%38.2%2.627——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.42 · draw 3.92 · home 2.0211/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.70 · draw 3.90 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.55 · draw 4.03 · home 1.9811/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBOMatch winneraway 3.13 · draw 3.42 · home 1.9311/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
William HillMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.75 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Match winneraway 3.60 · draw 3.75 · home 1.9111/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.90 · home 2.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.51 · draw 4.03 · home 2.0711/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.85 · home 1.9811/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.40 · draw 3.90 · home 1.9311/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.5111/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.6311/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.6611/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.6211/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.5111/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.47 · under 2.5 2.7511/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.46 · under 2.5 2.4711/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:10:59.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:53 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Atletico Madridok11/10/2026, 01:39:35 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Manchester Unitedok11/10/2026, 01:39:25 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home43.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away32.3%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x67.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x256.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.9%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes62.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no37.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.582.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.517.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.560.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.539.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.537.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.562.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.520.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.579.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.590.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.581.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.518.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.550.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.549.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.524.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.576.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.59.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.590.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.576.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.524.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.541.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.558.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.517.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.582.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.594.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.59.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.590.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.522.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.577.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.543.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.556.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.567.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.532.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.585.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.514.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home57.5%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away42.5%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 444 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:10:59