La Liga·Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT

LevantevSevilla

Levante

47%

Draw

25%

Sevilla

28%

Got%OnIt gives Levante a 47% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.6 goals for Levante and 1.2 for Sevilla.
Levante won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.
Sevilla won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Levante are 17th of 20 after 6 games; Sevilla are 5th.
Levante have won 1 and lost 3; Sevilla have won 4 and lost 2.

Recent matches the model used

Levante

L1–3at Villarreal20 Sept
L2–4v Barcelona13 Sept
D0–0at Malaga6 Sept
W5–2v Real Betis29 Aug
D0–0at Osasuna24 Aug
L0–3at Espanyol16 Aug

Sevilla

L1–3v Barcelona19 Sept
W1–0at Deportivo La Coruna16 Sept
W1–0v Valencia11 Sept
D1–1at Espanyol6 Sept
L1–3v Atletico Madrid29 Aug
W3–1at Athletic Club22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 533, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Sevilla)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Levante)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationLevante 22 d rest · Sevilla 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Levante

22.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Deportivo La Coruna +4 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 13 SeptLLH BarcelonaL 2–4counted as workload
Sun 20 SeptLLA VillarrealL 1–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Fri 16 OctLLA Deportivo La Coruna+4 d
Wed 21 OctLLH Athletic Club+9 d
Sun 25 OctLLA Real Sociedad+12.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 20 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 6 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Levante: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	International (14 d)
M. Sanchez · regular	D	—
M. Ryan · regular	G	—
J. Toljan · regular	D	—
Dela · regular	D	—
A. Mandi	D	—
E. Bardeli	M	—
O. Rey	M	—
R. Brugue	F	—
T. Fernandez	F	—
I. Romero · regular	F	—
J. A. Olasagasti · regular	M	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Sevilla

23 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Real Madrid +6 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Wed 16 SeptLLA Deportivo La CorunaW 1–0counted as workload
Sat 19 SeptLLH BarcelonaL 1–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 18 OctLLA Real Madrid+6 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: K. Salas (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0.3 CONFIRMED

Sevilla: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Castrin · regular	D	0	0	—
L. Agoume · regular	M	0	0	—
Y. Fofana	M	0	0	—
F. Correia	M	0	0	—
M. Sierra · regular	M	0	0	—
G. Kochorashvili	M	0	90	44' Georgia, 10 d before; 46' Georgia, 7 d before
G. Suazo · regular	D	0	0	—
J. Iglesias · regular	D	0	0	—
O. Vlachodimos · regular	G	0	0	0' Greece, 11 d before; 0' Greece, 8 d before
A. Sangante	D	0	0	—
R. Ure	F	3	49	31' Scotland, 13 d before; 15' Scotland, 9 d before; 3' Scotland, 6 d before

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 139 minutes — G. Kochorashvili (44' Georgia, 10 d before; 46' Georgia, 7 d before); R. Ure (31' Scotland, 13 d before; 15' Scotland, 9 d before; 3' Scotland, 6 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 2 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Levante

A. Primo · injury / absence: Shoulder Injury · Questionable
H. Sotelo · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Questionable
K. Etta Eyong · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable

Sevilla

L. Stassin · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
Marcao · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
R. Vargas · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Questionable

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Levante	47%	35%	36%
Draw	25%	29%	30%
Sevilla	28%	37%	35%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 26 h before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 31 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Levante a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (47% vs 35%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Levante

Levante: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.7 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.

L1–3at Villarreal20 Sept · in model evidence
L2–4v Barcelona13 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0at Malaga6 Sept · in model evidence
W5–2v Real Betis29 Aug · in model evidence
D0–0at Osasuna24 Aug · in model evidence
L0–3at Espanyol16 Aug · in model evidence

Sevilla

Sevilla: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 50%.

L1–3v Barcelona19 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0at Deportivo La Coruna16 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0v Valencia11 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1at Espanyol6 Sept · in model evidence
L1–3v Atletico Madrid29 Aug · in model evidence
W3–1at Athletic Club22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	6%
1 goal	17%
2 goals	24%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	16%
5 goals	9%
6 or more	6%
Over 1.5	77%
Over 2.5	53%
Over 3.5	31%
Both teams score	55%

Levante

Expected goals	1.61
Scores at least once	80%
Scores 2 or more	48%
Clean sheet	31%

Sevilla

Expected goals	1.18
Scores at least once	69%
Scores 2 or more	33%
Clean sheet	20%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability6 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

6 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 1 h ago.

Levante

A. PrimoDoubtfulShoulder Injury
H. SoteloDoubtfulKnee Injury
K. Etta EyongDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Sevilla

L. StassinDoubtfulMuscle Injury
MarcaoOutMuscle Injury
R. VargasDoubtfulKnee Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season17th v 5th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Levante

17th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L3 from 6 games · scored 8, conceded 12

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 7, conceded 6) · Away W0 D2 L2 (scored 1, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games LLDWD (most recent last)

Sevilla

5th of 20 · 13 pts · W4 D1 L2 from 7 games · scored 10, conceded 9

Home W2 D0 L2 (scored 5, conceded 7) · Away W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 7 games

Last five league games LWWDL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Levante to win (90 minutes)

47%

36%

YES on Levante to WinLevante wins in 90 minutes

47%36¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 23,707 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sevilla to win (90 minutes)

28%

35%

YES on Sevilla to WinSevilla wins in 90 minutes

28%35¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 15,000 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

25%

30%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

25%30¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 27,254 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawLevante or Sevilla wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

75%71¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 6,521 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Sevilla to WinLevante wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

72%66¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 23,871 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Levante to WinSevilla wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

53%65¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 34,531 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

94%

92%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

94%92¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 17,109 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

6%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,542 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

77%

72%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

77%72¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 6 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

23%29¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 33,052 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

53%

46%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

53%46¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 23,655 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

47%55¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 27,855 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

31%

25%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

31%25¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,645 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

69%76¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 368 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

15%

11%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

15%11¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,054 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

85%90¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,589 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

6%5¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,320 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

94%97¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 27,915 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

55%

53%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

55%53¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 10 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

45%48¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 7,464 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Winning margin

Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

24%

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Levante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLevante wins by 2 goals or more

24%15¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,355 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Levante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Levante wins by 1 goal · Levante not by 2+ goals

76%86¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 45,731 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

Limited evidence

YES on Levante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLevante wins by 3 goals or more

10%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,892 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Levante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Levante wins by 2 goals or fewer · Levante not by 3+ goals

90%96¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 32,263 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

11%

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Sevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSevilla wins by 2 goals or more

11%15¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,472 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Sevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLevante wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 1 goal · Sevilla not by 2+ goals

89%86¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 18,828 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Sevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSevilla wins by 3 goals or more

4%5¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,250 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Sevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLevante wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sevilla not by 3+ goals

96%96¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 16,531 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Team goals

Levante over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

80%

73%

Limited evidence

YES on Levante Over 0.5 GoalsLevante scores 1 goal or more

80%74¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,886 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Levante Over 0.5 GoalsLevante does not score · Levante under 0.5 goals

20%28¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,001 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Levante over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

48%

36%

Limited evidence

YES on Levante Over 1.5 GoalsLevante scores 2 goals or more

48%37¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,200 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Levante Over 1.5 GoalsLevante scores 1 goal or fewer · Levante under 1.5 goals

52%65¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,035 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Levante over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

22%

13%

Limited evidence

YES on Levante Over 2.5 GoalsLevante scores 3 goals or more

22%14¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 446 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Levante Over 2.5 GoalsLevante scores 2 goals or fewer · Levante under 2.5 goals

78%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 62 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Sevilla over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

69%

72%

Limited evidence

YES on Sevilla Over 0.5 GoalsSevilla scores 1 goal or more

69%73¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,183 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Sevilla Over 0.5 GoalsSevilla does not score · Sevilla under 0.5 goals

31%29¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,001 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Sevilla over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

33%

35%

Limited evidence

YES on Sevilla Over 1.5 GoalsSevilla scores 2 goals or more

33%35¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,000 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Sevilla Over 1.5 GoalsSevilla scores 1 goal or fewer · Sevilla under 1.5 goals

67%66¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 27 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Sevilla over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

12%

13%

Limited evidence

YES on Sevilla Over 2.5 GoalsSevilla scores 3 goals or more

12%14¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,754 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Sevilla Over 2.5 GoalsSevilla scores 2 goals or fewer · Sevilla under 2.5 goals

88%89¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,295 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 47.2% · draw 24.7% · away 28.1%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.18
Levante eligible matches: 44 (44 with xG)
Sevilla eligible matches: 121 (121 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: none

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
the model's home probability is 12% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's away probability is 6% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Levante	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
20 Sept	Villarreal	away	1–3	0.45–4.27	L
13 Sept	Barcelona	home	2–4	2.42–2.58	L
6 Sept	Malaga	away	0–0	0.81–1.46	D
29 Aug	Real Betis	home	5–2	2.76–1.92	W
24 Aug	Osasuna	away	0–0	1.28–0.70	D
16 Aug	Espanyol	away	0–3	0.28–1.55	L

Sevilla	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
19 Sept	Barcelona	home	1–3	0.40–3.47	L
16 Sept	Deportivo La Coruna	away	1–0	0.73–0.14	W
11 Sept	Valencia	home	1–0	0.93–0.10	W
6 Sept	Espanyol	away	1–1	0.53–1.23	D
29 Aug	Atletico Madrid	home	1–3	0.90–0.93	L
22 Aug	Athletic Club	away	3–1	0.41–1.25	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT12LEVSEV-BTTS	55.5%	52.5%	+3.0 pts	0.52 / 0.53	0.48	10 / 7,464	Comparable seen 31 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Levante to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV	47.2%	35.5%	+11.7 pts	0.35 / 0.36	0.65	23,707 / 34,531	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Sevilla to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV	28.1%	34.5%	−6.4 pts	0.34 / 0.35	0.66	15,000 / 23,871	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-TIE	24.7%	29.5%	−4.8 pts	0.29 / 0.30	0.71	27,254 / 6,521	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV2	24.5%	14.5%	+10.0 pts	0.14 / 0.15	0.86	1,355 / 45,731	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV3	10.2%	5.0%	+5.2 pts	0.04 / 0.06	0.96	14,892 / 32,263	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV2	11.4%	14.5%	−3.1 pts	0.14 / 0.15	0.86	3,472 / 18,828	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV3	3.6%	4.5%	−0.9 pts	0.04 / 0.05	0.96	2,250 / 16,531	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Team goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Levante over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV1	80.0%	73.0%	+7.0 pts	0.72 / 0.74	0.28	4,886 / 1,001	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Levante over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV2	47.8%	36.0%	+11.8 pts	0.35 / 0.37	0.65	1,200 / 2,035	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Levante over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV3	21.9%	13.0%	+8.9 pts	0.12 / 0.14	0.88	446 / 62	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sevilla over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV1	69.4%	72.0%	−2.6 pts	0.71 / 0.73	0.29	1,183 / 1,001	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sevilla over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV2	33.2%	34.5%	−1.3 pts	0.34 / 0.35	0.66	1,000 / 27	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sevilla over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV3	11.7%	12.5%	−0.8 pts	0.11 / 0.14	0.89	3,754 / 3,295	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-1	93.9%	91.5%	+2.4 pts	0.91 / 0.92	0.09	17,109 / 3,542	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-2	76.8%	71.5%	+5.3 pts	0.71 / 0.72	0.29	6 / 33,052	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-3	52.9%	45.5%	+7.4 pts	0.45 / 0.46	0.55	23,655 / 27,855	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-4	30.6%	24.5%	+6.1 pts	0.24 / 0.25	0.76	14,645 / 368	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-5	15.1%	10.5%	+4.6 pts	0.10 / 0.11	0.90	3,054 / 3,589	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-6	6.4%	4.0%	+2.4 pts	0.03 / 0.05	0.97	1,320 / 27,915	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:09:06.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	34.6%	34.2% – 35.3%	36.4%	2.75	10	47.2%	+12.7 pts
1x2:draw	28.7%	28.0% – 29.5%	30.0%	3.33	10	24.7%	−4.0 pts
1x2:away	36.5%	35.8% – 37.0%	38.3%	2.61	10	28.1%	−8.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:48.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	47.0%	45.2% – 47.4%	48.5%	2.06	8	52.9%	+5.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	53.0%	52.6% – 54.8%	55.6%	1.80	8	47.1%	−5.9 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:48.

Every bookmaker page used (18)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 2.62 · draw 3.38 · home 2.82	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betfair	Match winner	away 2.60 · draw 3.40 · home 2.70	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 2.70 · draw 3.31 · home 2.77	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBO	Match winner	away 2.43 · draw 3.04 · home 2.56	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
William Hill	Match winner	away 2.50 · draw 3.20 · home 2.70	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365	Match winner	away 2.62 · draw 3.20 · home 2.75	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Dafabet	Match winner	away 2.65 · draw 3.35 · home 2.75	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBet	Match winner	away 2.67 · draw 3.43 · home 2.86	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betano	Match winner	away 2.57 · draw 3.35 · home 2.75	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictor	Match winner	away 2.60 · draw 3.30 · home 2.70	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.03 · under 2.5 1.80	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.73	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.08 · under 2.5 1.81	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBO	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.07 · under 2.5 1.79	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.00 · under 2.5 1.80	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.86	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.05 · under 2.5 1.82	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.95 · under 2.5 1.73	11/10/2026, 09:30:48	11/10/2026, 06:50:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:09:06.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	ok	11/10/2026, 19:41:51 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Levante	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:15 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Sevilla	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:15 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	47.2%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	24.7%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	28.1%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	71.9%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	52.8%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	75.3%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	55.5%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	44.5%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	93.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	6.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	76.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	23.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	52.9%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	47.1%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	30.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	69.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	15.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	84.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	6.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	93.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	80.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	20.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	47.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	52.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	21.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	78.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	8.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	92.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	69.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	30.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	33.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	66.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	11.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	88.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	3.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	96.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	10.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	89.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	24.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	75.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	47.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	52.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	71.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	28.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	88.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	11.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	96.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	3.6%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	62.7%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	37.3%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 533 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:09:06