Got%OnIt
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Serie A·Mon 19 Oct, 11:45 PDT

ParmavTorino

Parma
33%
Draw
30%
Torino
37%

Got%OnIt gives Torino a 37% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Parma and 1.1 for Torino.
  • Parma won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 a game.
  • Torino won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Parma are 18th of 20 after 6 games; Torino are 15th.
  • Parma have won 1 and lost 4; Torino have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Parma

  • L0–3at Inter10 Oct
  • W2–1v Genoa20 Sept
  • L1–2at Como14 Sept
  • D1–1v Monza6 Sept
  • L0–2at Juventus29 Aug
  • L0–1v Cagliari22 Aug

Torino

  • D1–1at Bologna19 Sept
  • L0–2v AS Roma14 Sept
  • W2–1at Fiorentina5 Sept
  • L1–2at Sassuolo29 Aug
  • L1–2v AC Milan23 Aug
  • D2–2v Juventus24 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Parma win33.0%33.7%+0.7 pts
Draw29.8%29.8%+0.0 pts
Torino win37.1%36.4%−0.7 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.06 and 1.14). Parma 1.06 · Torino 1.14 · total 2.20 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Parma–Torino)

  1. 1–113.7%
  2. 0–112.3%
  3. 0–011.5%
  4. 1–011.4%
  5. 1–27.6%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Parma

Expected goals
1.06
Scoring vs average
×0.81
Conceding vs average
×0.96

Torino

Expected goals
1.14
Scoring vs average
×0.96
Conceding vs average
×0.81
  • Parma (home): expected to score ×0.81 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.96 the average.
  • Torino (away): expected to score ×0.96 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.81 the average.
  • Recent 378 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.31 home and 1.19 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.10).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Parma
82 matches (82 with xG)
Torino
119 matches (119 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home33.0%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 27.1%
1x2:draw29.8%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 27.2%
1x2:away37.1%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 34.9%
double_chance:1x62.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x267.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1270.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes44.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no55.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.588.5%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.1%
total_goals:under:0.511.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.564.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 64.2%
total_goals:under:1.535.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.537.6%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.0%
total_goals:under:2.562.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.518.0%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 17.5%
total_goals:under:3.582.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.57.2%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 6.2%
total_goals:under:4.592.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.52.5%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 0.9%
total_goals:under:5.597.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.565.3%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 64.6%
team_total:home:under:0.534.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.528.6%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 27.9%
team_total:home:under:1.571.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.59.1%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.7%
team_total:home:under:2.590.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.52.3%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.5%
team_total:home:under:3.597.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.568.0%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 67.4%
team_total:away:under:0.532.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.531.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 30.9%
team_total:away:under:1.568.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.510.8%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.3%
team_total:away:under:2.589.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.9%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.5%
team_total:away:under:3.597.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.53.9%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.0%
spread:away:+2.596.1%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.9%
spread:home:-1.513.0%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 11.1%
spread:away:+1.587.0%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 86.6%
spread:home:-0.533.0%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 31.2%
spread:away:+0.567.0%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 66.3%
spread:home:+0.562.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 62.2%
spread:away:-0.537.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 35.9%
spread:home:+1.584.5%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 84.0%
spread:away:-1.515.5%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.7%
spread:home:+2.595.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.54.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home47.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away52.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.16 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 190328592962098406 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.14 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Parma win33.0%33.3% ± 0.1+0.22 pts
Draw29.8%29.2% ± 0.1−0.65 pts
Torino win37.1%37.6% ± 0.2+0.43 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.16 pts (total_goals:over:3.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Parma
31.9% ± 0.1 (exact 32.0%)
Torino
34.8% ± 0.2 (exact 34.7%)

Goal difference (Parma minus Torino)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -41.0% ± 0.0
  4. -33.7% ± 0.1
  5. -210.6% ± 0.1
  6. -122.0% ± 0.1
  7. 029.2% ± 0.1
  8. 120.4% ± 0.1
  9. 29.0% ± 0.1
  10. 32.8% ± 0.1
  11. 40.8% ± 0.0
  12. 50.1% ± 0.0
  13. >50.0% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Parma 1–1 Torino13.4% ± 0.113.7%
Parma 0–1 Torino12.7% ± 0.112.3%
Parma 1–0 Torino11.7% ± 0.111.4%
Parma 0–0 Torino11.2% ± 0.111.5%
Parma 1–2 Torino7.7% ± 0.17.6%

Expected goals (simulated)

Parma
mean 1.06 · variance 1.06 · ± 0.003
Torino
mean 1.14 · variance 1.14 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move torino win by −2.3 pts (to 34.9%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Parma and −0.09 for Torino.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Parma win33.0%35.3%+2.2 pts
Draw29.8%29.9%+0.1 pts
Torino win37.1%34.9%−2.3 pts
Expected goals1.06 – 1.141.06 – 1.05+0.00 / −0.09

Data labels: CONFIRMED 116 · REPORTED 4 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 1 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Parma

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice E. Corvi)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Torino

Attack ×0.92 band 0.88–0.96 ESTIMATED · 15.6% of goals share out

  • P. Pellegri Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • F. Israel G Missing Fixture (Shoulder Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • C. Adams F Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 19.1% · effect −9.6% REPORTED
  • C. Casadei M Questionable (Rest) · share 12.1% · effect −6.1% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Lucas Perri)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • home: no injury report fetched before as_of (missing is not fitness)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move draw by −0.5 pts (to 29.4%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Parma and −0.02 for Torino.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Parma win33.0%33.3%+0.2 pts
Draw29.8%29.4%−0.5 pts
Torino win37.1%37.3%+0.2 pts
Expected goals1.06 – 1.141.04 – 1.12−0.01 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 116 · REPORTED 4 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 1 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Parma rate ×0.99 band 0.72–1.34

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Torino rate ×0.99 band 0.72–1.34

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • home: no injury report fetched before as_of (missing is not fitness)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move torino win by −2.4 pts (to 34.7%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Parma and −0.10 for Torino.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Parma win33.0%35.1%+2.1 pts
Draw29.8%30.1%+0.3 pts
Torino win37.1%34.7%−2.4 pts
Expected goals1.06 – 1.141.04 – 1.04−0.01 / −0.10

Data labels: CONFIRMED 116 · REPORTED 4 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 1 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Parma

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice E. Corvi)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Torino

Attack ×0.92 band 0.88–0.96 ESTIMATED · 15.6% of goals share out

  • P. Pellegri Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • F. Israel G Missing Fixture (Shoulder Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • C. Adams F Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 19.1% · effect −9.6% REPORTED
  • C. Casadei M Questionable (Rest) · share 12.1% · effect −6.1% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Lucas Perri)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Parma rate ×0.99 band 0.72–1.34

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Torino rate ×0.99 band 0.72–1.34

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • home: no injury report fetched before as_of (missing is not fitness)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Parma win33.0%33.3%+0.3 pts
Draw29.8%29.2%−0.7 pts
Torino win37.1%37.5%+0.4 pts
Expected goals—1.06 – 1.14−0.00 / −0.00

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 625 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)G. Simeone 23% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Parma

availability UNKNOWN scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 58% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
S. Lontani F10.5% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00150%
E. Delprato D7.1% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00187%
D. Romero F5.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00129%
A. Bernabe M5.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00118%
N. Elphege F4.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00146%
M. Keita M4.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00186%
M. Troilo D4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00191%
C. Ordonez M2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00045%

Torino

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 72% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
G. Simeone F23.2% ± 0.12.9% ± 0.10.26 ± 0.00286%
N. Vlasic F18.7% ± 0.11.9% ± 0.00.21 ± 0.00189%
C. Adams F6.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00124%
C. Casadei M3.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00113%
P. Comuzzo D2.7% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00166%
D. Zapata F2.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0009%
R. Mandragora M2.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00055%
E. Ilkhan M1.9% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0009%

Run 1009 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 504, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-19T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Torino)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Parma)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Serie A matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknowninjury reporttime unknownnot collected for this match
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationParma 9 d rest · Torino 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:10 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Parma

9.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Lazio +5 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAH GenoaW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctSAA InterL 0–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctSAA Lazio+5 d
  • Wed 28 OctSAH Udinese+8.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Parma: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Troilo · regularD090—
E. Corvi · regularG090—
F. CarboniD078—
M. Keita · regularM0933' Belgium, 14 d before
G. FabbianM062—
E. Valeri · regularM090—
E. Touré · regularM084—
N. ElphegeF061—
V. SierroM010745' Switzerland, 13 d before
E. Del Prato · regularM090—
Diego CarlosD090—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 138 minutes — M. Keita (3' Belgium, 14 d before); S. Britschgi (90' Switzerland, 13 d before); V. Sierro (45' Switzerland, 13 d before) CONFIRMED

Torino

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 1 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Monza +4 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 12 OctSAH UdineseNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctSAH Monza+4 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAH Como+8 d
  • Sun 1 NovSAA Frosinone+12.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 24 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 5 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Torino: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
D. BragancaM00—
S. Coco · regularD00—
E. ComertD000' Switzerland, 13 d before
A. IsmajliD09090' Albania, 13 d before
N. FortiniM00—
A. CacciamaniM00—
G. Simeone · regularF00—
N. Vlasic · regularF07171' Croatia, 13 d before
Lucas PerriG00—
K. Fitz-JimM00—
R. MandragoraM00—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 231 minutes — A. Ismajli (90' Albania, 13 d before); N. Vlasic (71' Croatia, 13 d before); R. Rodriguez (70' Switzerland, 13 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Parma33%—30%
Draw30%—32%
Torino37%—39%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 19 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Parma

  • Parma: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.7 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–3at Inter10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Genoa20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Como14 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Monza6 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Juventus29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Cagliari22 Aug · in model evidence

Torino

  • Torino: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • D1–1at Bologna19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v AS Roma14 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Fiorentina5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Sassuolo29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2v AC Milan23 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Juventus24 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals11%
1 goal24%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals11%
5 goals5%
6 or more2%
Over 1.565%
Over 2.538%
Over 3.518%
Both teams score45%

Parma

Expected goals1.06
Scores at least once65%
Scores 2 or more29%
Clean sheet32%

Torino

Expected goals1.14
Scores at least once68%
Scores 2 or more32%
Clean sheet35%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynot available

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season18th v 15th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Parma

18th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L4 from 6 games · scored 4, conceded 10

Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L3 (scored 1, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games LWLDL (most recent last)

Torino

15th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 8

Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games DLWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets3 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 6 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Parma to win33.0%33.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 31¢
Draw29.8%29.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 33¢
Torino to win37.1%37.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 40¢
Double chance
Parma or draw limited evidence62.9%62.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 63¢
Torino or draw limited evidence67.0%66.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 72¢
Not a draw limited evidence70.2%70.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 70¢
Draw no bet
Parma to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence47.1%47.0% ± 0.2no
Torino to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence52.9%53.0% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence88.5%88.8% ± 0.1no
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence11.5%11.2% ± 0.1no
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence64.8%64.4% ± 0.2no
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence35.2%35.6% ± 0.2no
Over 2.5 goals in total37.6%37.8% ± 0.2no
Under 2.5 goals in total62.4%62.2% ± 0.2no
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence18.0%18.2% ± 0.1no
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence82.0%81.8% ± 0.1no
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence7.2%7.2% ± 0.1no
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence92.8%92.8% ± 0.1no
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence2.5%2.4% ± 0.0no
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence97.5%97.6% ± 0.0no
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence44.7%44.5% ± 0.2no
At least one team fails to score limited evidence55.3%55.5% ± 0.2no
Team goals
Parma over 0.5 goals limited evidence65.3%65.2% ± 0.2no
Parma under 0.5 goals limited evidence34.7%34.8% ± 0.2no
Parma over 1.5 goals limited evidence28.6%28.4% ± 0.1no
Parma under 1.5 goals limited evidence71.4%71.6% ± 0.1no
Parma over 2.5 goals limited evidence9.1%9.1% ± 0.1no
Parma under 2.5 goals limited evidence90.9%90.9% ± 0.1no
Parma over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.3%2.3% ± 0.0no
Parma under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.7%97.7% ± 0.0no
Torino over 0.5 goals limited evidence68.0%68.1% ± 0.1no
Torino under 0.5 goals limited evidence32.0%31.9% ± 0.1no
Torino over 1.5 goals limited evidence31.5%31.6% ± 0.1no
Torino under 1.5 goals limited evidence68.5%68.4% ± 0.1no
Torino over 2.5 goals limited evidence10.8%10.8% ± 0.1no
Torino under 2.5 goals limited evidence89.2%89.2% ± 0.1no
Torino over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.9%2.9% ± 0.1no
Torino under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.1%97.1% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Parma to win by 3 or more limited evidence3.9%3.8% ± 0.1no
Parma to win by 2 or more limited evidence13.0%12.8% ± 0.1no
Parma to win by 1 or more limited evidence33.0%33.3% ± 0.1no
Parma not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence62.9%62.4% ± 0.2no
Parma not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence84.5%84.5% ± 0.1no
Parma not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.1%95.1% ± 0.1no
Torino to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.9%4.9% ± 0.1no
Torino to win by 2 or more limited evidence15.5%15.5% ± 0.1no
Torino to win by 1 or more limited evidence37.1%37.6% ± 0.2no
Torino not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence67.0%66.7% ± 0.1no
Torino not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence87.0%87.2% ± 0.1no
Torino not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence96.1%96.2% ± 0.1no
Clean sheet
Parma clean sheet grid32.0%31.9% ± 0.1no
Torino clean sheet grid34.7%34.8% ± 0.2no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—29.2% ± 0.1not listed
Parma by exactly 1—20.4% ± 0.1not listed
Parma by exactly 2—9.0% ± 0.1not listed
Parma by exactly 3—2.8% ± 0.1not listed
Parma by exactly 4—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
Parma by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Torino by exactly 1—22.0% ± 0.1not listed
Torino by exactly 2—10.6% ± 0.1not listed
Torino by exactly 3—3.7% ± 0.1not listed
Torino by exactly 4—1.0% ± 0.0not listed
Torino by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Parma by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Torino by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Parma 1–1 Torino—13.4% ± 0.1not listed
Parma 0–1 Torino—12.7% ± 0.1not listed
Parma 1–0 Torino—11.7% ± 0.1not listed
Parma 0–0 Torino—11.2% ± 0.1not listed
Parma 1–2 Torino—7.7% ± 0.1not listed

Parma v Torino: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Parma to win (90 minutes)
33%
30%
YES on Parma to WinParma wins in 90 minutes
33%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,107 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
30%
32%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
30%33¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,382 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Torino to win (90 minutes)
37%
39%
YES on Torino to WinTorino wins in 90 minutes
37%40¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,177 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawParma or Torino wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
70%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 424 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Torino to WinParma wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
63%63¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 688 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Parma to WinTorino wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
67%72¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 770 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 33.0% · draw 29.8% · away 37.1%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.14
Parma eligible matches
82 (82 with xG)
Torino eligible matches
119 (119 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

ParmaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctInteraway0–30.51–2.50L
20 SeptGenoahome2–10.53–0.70W
14 SeptComoaway1–21.15–2.98L
6 SeptMonzahome1–10.73–1.72D
29 AugJuventusaway0–20.25–1.58L
22 AugCagliarihome0–10.75–0.94L
TorinoOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptBolognaaway1–11.14–0.92D
14 SeptAS Romahome0–20.86–1.85L
5 SeptFiorentinaaway2–10.58–1.67W
29 AugSassuoloaway1–21.26–1.85L
23 AugAC Milanhome1–21.29–2.15L
24 MayJuventushome2–20.85–1.92D

Kalshi contracts and the model

3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Parma to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-PAR
33.0%29.5%+3.5 pts0.28 / 0.310.723,107 / 770Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Torino to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-TOR
37.1%38.5%−1.4 pts0.37 / 0.400.633,177 / 688Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-TIE
29.8%31.5%−1.7 pts0.30 / 0.330.705,382 / 424Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:10:16.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
33.0%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
29.8%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
37.1%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
37.6%—
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
62.4%—

No pages observed.

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:10:16.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesnot_observed—
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Parmaok11/10/2026, 11:37:15 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Torinook11/10/2026, 11:37:13 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home33.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw29.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away37.1%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x62.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x267.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1270.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes44.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no55.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.588.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.511.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.564.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.535.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.537.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.562.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.518.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.582.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.57.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.592.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.52.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.597.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.565.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.534.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.528.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.571.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.59.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.590.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.52.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.597.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.568.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.532.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.531.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.568.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.510.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.589.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.53.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.596.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.513.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.587.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.533.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.567.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.562.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.537.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.584.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.515.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home47.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away52.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 504 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:10:16