Got%OnIt
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Ligue 1·Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT

LyonvNice

Lyon
57%
Draw
23%
Nice
20%

Got%OnIt gives Lyon a 57% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.9 goals for Lyon and 1.0 for Nice.
  • Lyon won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • Nice won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Lyon are 4th of 18 after 6 games; Nice are 9th.
  • Lyon have won 3 and lost 1; Nice have won 2 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Lyon

  • L1–2at Lens9 Oct
  • W4–0v Rennes19 Sept
  • W2–1at Anderlecht16 Sept
  • D0–0at Paris FC12 Sept
  • W3–1v Auxerre4 Sept
  • D1–1v Le Havre29 Aug

Nice

  • W2–1v Strasbourg11 Oct
  • W2–1v Lille20 Sept
  • L0–1at Auxerre12 Sept
  • D1–1v Le Mans5 Sept
  • L0–3at Paris FC30 Aug
  • D0–0v Lorient22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Lyon win57.3%57.4%+0.1 pts
Draw22.7%22.6%−0.1 pts
Nice win20.0%20.0%+0.0 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.90 and 1.04). Lyon 1.90 · Nice 1.04 · total 2.94 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Lyon–Nice)

  1. 1–110.7%
  2. 2–19.9%
  3. 1–09.8%
  4. 2–09.6%
  5. 3–16.3%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Lyon

Expected goals
1.90
Scoring vs average
×1.21
Conceding vs average
×0.82

Nice

Expected goals
1.04
Scoring vs average
×0.82
Conceding vs average
×1.21
  • Lyon (home): expected to score ×1.21 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.82 the average.
  • Nice (away): expected to score ×0.82 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.21 the average.
  • Recent 298 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.58 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.25).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Lyon
131 matches (130 with xG)
Nice
124 matches (124 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home57.3%over-stated by 0.1 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 55.6%
1x2:draw22.7%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 20.3%
1x2:away20.0%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 18.4%
double_chance:1x80.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x242.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1277.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes55.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no44.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.594.4%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 94.1%
total_goals:under:0.55.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.579.4%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 78.9%
total_goals:under:1.520.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.556.3%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 55.6%
total_goals:under:2.543.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.533.9%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 33.3%
total_goals:under:3.566.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.517.4%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 15.4%
total_goals:under:4.582.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.57.8%under-stated by 0.0 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 6.9%
total_goals:under:5.592.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.585.1%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 84.6%
team_total:home:under:0.514.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.556.7%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 56.0%
team_total:home:under:1.543.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.529.7%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 29.1%
team_total:home:under:2.570.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.512.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 11.5%
team_total:home:under:3.587.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.564.5%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 63.9%
team_total:away:under:0.535.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.527.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 27.2%
team_total:away:under:1.572.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.58.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.3%
team_total:away:under:2.591.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.1%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.8%
team_total:away:under:3.597.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.516.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.0%
spread:away:+2.583.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.4%
spread:home:-1.533.7%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 31.7%
spread:away:+1.566.3%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 65.6%
spread:home:-0.557.3%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 55.4%
spread:away:+0.542.7%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 42.0%
spread:home:+0.580.0%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.5%
spread:away:-0.520.0%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 18.9%
spread:home:+1.592.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.4%
spread:away:-1.57.3%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.6%
spread:home:+2.598.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.52.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home74.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away25.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.22 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 5278277866298713018 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.18 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Lyon win57.3%57.8% ± 0.2+0.46 pts
Draw22.7%22.0% ± 0.1−0.75 pts
Nice win20.0%20.3% ± 0.1+0.28 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.22 pts (team_total:away:over:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Lyon
35.7% ± 0.2 (exact 35.5%)
Nice
14.9% ± 0.1 (exact 14.9%)

Goal difference (Lyon minus Nice)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.4% ± 0.0
  4. -31.5% ± 0.0
  5. -25.2% ± 0.1
  6. -113.0% ± 0.1
  7. 022.0% ± 0.1
  8. 124.0% ± 0.1
  9. 217.7% ± 0.1
  10. 39.7% ± 0.1
  11. 44.3% ± 0.1
  12. 51.5% ± 0.0
  13. >50.6% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Lyon 1–0 Nice10.2% ± 0.19.8%
Lyon 1–1 Nice10.2% ± 0.110.7%
Lyon 2–1 Nice9.9% ± 0.19.9%
Lyon 2–0 Nice9.5% ± 0.19.6%
Lyon 3–1 Nice6.3% ± 0.16.3%

Expected goals (simulated)

Lyon
mean 1.90 · variance 1.90 · ± 0.004
Nice
mean 1.04 · variance 1.04 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.5 pts (to 22.2%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Lyon and +0.00 for Nice.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lyon win57.3%57.6%+0.3 pts
Draw22.7%22.2%−0.5 pts
Nice win20.0%20.3%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.90 – 1.041.90 – 1.04+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 133 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 50 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Lyon

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Greif)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Nice

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Y. Diouf)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move nice win by +0.7 pts (to 20.7%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Lyon and +0.00 for Nice.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lyon win57.3%56.8%−0.5 pts
Draw22.7%22.5%−0.2 pts
Nice win20.0%20.7%+0.7 pts
Expected goals1.90 – 1.041.87 – 1.04−0.03 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 133 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 50 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Lyon rate ×0.98 band 0.68–1.43

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED

Nice rate ×1.00 band 0.72–1.40

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move nice win by +0.7 pts (to 20.7%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Lyon and +0.00 for Nice.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lyon win57.3%56.8%−0.5 pts
Draw22.7%22.5%−0.2 pts
Nice win20.0%20.7%+0.7 pts
Expected goals1.90 – 1.041.87 – 1.04−0.03 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 133 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 50 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Lyon

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Greif)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Nice

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Y. Diouf)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Lyon rate ×0.98 band 0.68–1.43

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED

Nice rate ×1.00 band 0.72–1.40

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Lyon win57.3%55.1%−2.2 pts
Draw22.7%22.8%+0.1 pts
Nice win20.0%22.2%+2.2 pts
Expected goals—1.84 – 1.08−0.06 / +0.05

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 617 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)C. Tolisso 27% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Lyon

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 65% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
C. Tolisso M27.0% ± 0.14.0% ± 0.10.32 ± 0.00281%
P. Sulc M18.1% ± 0.11.7% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00161%
E. Nuamah F10.2% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00181%
Abner Vinicius D8.6% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00174%
L. Openda F6.5% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00195%
Z. Athekame D6.3% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00173%
T. Morton M5.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00195%
N. Nartey M4.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00119%

Nice

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 59% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
E. Wahi F21.0% ± 0.12.5% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00279%
J. Clauss M9.1% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.001100%
S. Diop M8.3% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00140%
M. Amoura M2.6% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00155%
D. Coulibaly M2.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00192%
A. Abdi D2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0003%
H. Boudaoui M0.7% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.0009%
I. Jansson F0.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.00 ± 0.0000%

Run 1005 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 500, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lyon)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Nice)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Ligue 1 matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLyon 3.1 d rest (short) · Nice 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:11 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Lyon

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A 1899 Hoffenheim +4 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −3.1 d before (H Crystal Palace); UEFA Europa League +4 d after (A 1899 Hoffenheim) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptL1H RennesW 4–0counted as workload
  • Fri 9 OctL1A LensL 1–2counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELH Crystal PalaceNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELA 1899 Hoffenheim+4 d
  • Sun 25 OctL1A Paris Saint Germain+7 d
  • Sat 31 OctL1H Angers+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 56 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Niakhate (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Lyon: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
L. Openda · regularF0633' Belgium, 13 d before
E. Nuamah · regularM071—
M. BidstrupM0600' Denmark, 14 d before
Abner · regularD090—
R. KluivertD090—
D. Greif · regularG018090' Slovakia, 12 d before
Z. AthekameD011020' Switzerland, 12 d before
C. Tolisso · regularM090—
P. ŠulcM016890' Czechia, 12 d before
T. Morton · regularM077—
F. BacherD090—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 203 minutes — L. Openda (3' Belgium, 13 d before); D. Greif (90' Slovakia, 12 d before); Z. Athekame (20' Switzerland, 12 d before); P. Šulc (90' Czechia, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

Nice

7.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Stade Brestois 29 +5 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptL1H LilleW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctL1H StrasbourgW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctL1A Stade Brestois 29+5 d
  • Sat 31 OctL1H Rennes+12.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Mendy (D) — reason unknown; M. Bard (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Nice: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. Wahi · regularF073—
Y. NdayishimiyeD090—
Mohamed AbdelmonemD090—
Y. Diouf · regularG090—
X. Mandza TsiendiD090—
J. Clauss · regularM090—
D. Coulibaly · regularM037—
A. WitselM086—
N. NkounkouM090—
M. AmouraM090—
G. HeinM086—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Lyon57%—57%
Draw23%—23%
Nice20%—19%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 21 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Lyon

  • Lyon: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.9 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L1–2at Lens9 Oct · in model evidence
  • W4–0v Rennes19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Paris FC12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1v Auxerre4 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Le Havre29 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Toulouse22 Aug · in model evidence

Nice

  • Nice: 10 finished matches (8 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • W2–1v Strasbourg11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Lille20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Auxerre12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Le Mans5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Paris FC30 Aug · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Lorient22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals6%
1 goal15%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals10%
6 or more8%
Over 1.579%
Over 2.556%
Over 3.534%
Both teams score55%

Lyon

Expected goals1.90
Scores at least once85%
Scores 2 or more57%
Clean sheet35%

Nice

Expected goals1.04
Scores at least once65%
Scores 2 or more28%
Clean sheet15%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 3 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 9th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Lyon

4th of 18 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L1 from 6 games · scored 11, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 8, conceded 2) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games LWDWD (most recent last)

Nice

9th of 18 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L2 from 6 games · scored 5, conceded 7

Home W2 D2 L0 (scored 5, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 0, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games WWLDL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Lyon to win57.3%57.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
Draw22.7%22.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Nice to win20.0%20.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 20¢
Double chance
Lyon or draw limited evidence80.0%79.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
Nice or draw limited evidence42.7%42.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 43¢
Not a draw limited evidence77.3%78.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Draw no bet
Lyon to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence74.1%74.0% ± 0.2no
Nice to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence25.9%26.0% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence94.4%94.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.6%5.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 7¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence79.4%79.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 82¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence20.6%21.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 20¢
Over 2.5 goals in total56.3%56.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 59¢
Under 2.5 goals in total43.7%43.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence33.9%34.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 36¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence66.1%66.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 66¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence17.4%17.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence82.6%82.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence7.8%7.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence92.2%92.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence55.2%54.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence44.8%45.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢
Team goals
Lyon over 0.5 goals limited evidence85.1%85.1% ± 0.1no
Lyon under 0.5 goals limited evidence14.9%14.9% ± 0.1no
Lyon over 1.5 goals limited evidence56.7%56.7% ± 0.2no
Lyon under 1.5 goals limited evidence43.3%43.3% ± 0.2no
Lyon over 2.5 goals limited evidence29.7%29.8% ± 0.1no
Lyon under 2.5 goals limited evidence70.3%70.2% ± 0.1no
Lyon over 3.5 goals limited evidence12.6%12.6% ± 0.1no
Lyon under 3.5 goals limited evidence87.4%87.4% ± 0.1no
Nice over 0.5 goals limited evidence64.5%64.3% ± 0.2no
Nice under 0.5 goals limited evidence35.5%35.7% ± 0.2no
Nice over 1.5 goals limited evidence27.8%28.0% ± 0.1no
Nice under 1.5 goals limited evidence72.2%72.0% ± 0.1no
Nice over 2.5 goals limited evidence8.7%8.8% ± 0.1no
Nice under 2.5 goals limited evidence91.3%91.2% ± 0.1no
Nice over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.1%2.1% ± 0.0no
Nice under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.9%97.9% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Lyon to win by 3 or more limited evidence16.1%16.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 16¢
Lyon to win by 2 or more limited evidence33.7%33.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 35¢
Lyon to win by 1 or more limited evidence57.3%57.8% ± 0.2no
Lyon not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence80.0%79.7% ± 0.1no
Lyon not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence92.7%92.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Lyon not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence98.0%98.0% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Nice to win by 3 or more limited evidence2.0%2.0% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 5¢
Nice to win by 2 or more limited evidence7.3%7.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Nice to win by 1 or more limited evidence20.0%20.3% ± 0.1no
Nice not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence42.7%42.2% ± 0.2no
Nice not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence66.3%66.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 68¢
Nice not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence83.9%83.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 86¢
Clean sheet
Lyon clean sheet grid35.5%35.7% ± 0.2no
Nice clean sheet grid14.9%14.9% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—22.0% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon by exactly 1—24.0% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon by exactly 2—17.7% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon by exactly 3—9.7% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon by exactly 4—4.3% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon by exactly 5—1.5% ± 0.0not listed
Nice by exactly 1—13.0% ± 0.1not listed
Nice by exactly 2—5.2% ± 0.1not listed
Nice by exactly 3—1.5% ± 0.0not listed
Nice by exactly 4—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Nice by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Lyon by 6 or more—0.6% ± 0.0not listed
Nice by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Lyon 1–0 Nice—10.2% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon 1–1 Nice—10.2% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon 2–1 Nice—9.9% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon 2–0 Nice—9.5% ± 0.1not listed
Lyon 3–1 Nice—6.3% ± 0.1not listed

Lyon v Nice: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Nice to win (90 minutes)
20%
19%
YES on Nice to WinNice wins in 90 minutes
20%20¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,022 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Lyon to win (90 minutes)
57%
57%
YES on Lyon to WinLyon wins in 90 minutes
57%58¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 100 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
23%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
23%23¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,866 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawLyon or Nice wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
77%78¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,187 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Nice to WinLyon wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
80%82¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,822 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Lyon to WinNice wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
43%43¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 944 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
94%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
94%95¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,405 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
79%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
79%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 919 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
21%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 200 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
56%
57%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
56%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,115 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
44%44¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 609 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
34%
35%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
34%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 708 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
66%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 610 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
17%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
17%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 703 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
83%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 410 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
8%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 705 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
92%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 410 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
55%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
55%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,218 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
45%45¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 915 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Winning margin
Nice to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Nice to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNice wins by 2 goals or more
7%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 705 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Nice to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLyon wins or the match is drawn, or Nice wins by 1 goal · Nice not by 2+ goals
93%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 954 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Nice to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Nice to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNice wins by 3 goals or more
2%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 506 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Nice to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLyon wins or the match is drawn, or Nice wins by 2 goals or fewer · Nice not by 3+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Lyon to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
34%
34%
Limited evidence
YES on Lyon to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLyon wins by 2 goals or more
34%35¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,114 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Lyon to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNice wins or the match is drawn, or Lyon wins by 1 goal · Lyon not by 2+ goals
66%68¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Lyon to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
15%
Limited evidence
YES on Lyon to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLyon wins by 3 goals or more
16%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 503 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Lyon to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNice wins or the match is drawn, or Lyon wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lyon not by 3+ goals
84%86¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 57.3% · draw 22.7% · away 20.0%
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.04
Lyon eligible matches
131 (130 with xG)
Nice eligible matches
124 (124 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

LyonOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 OctLensaway1–21.05–1.38L
19 SeptRenneshome4–03.13–1.37W
16 SeptAnderlechtaway2–11.27–1.43W
12 SeptParis FCaway0–00.50–0.30D
4 SeptAuxerrehome3–12.85–0.71W
29 AugLe Havrehome1–11.75–0.69D
NiceOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctStrasbourghome2–11.34–0.56W
20 SeptLillehome2–11.50–1.58W
12 SeptAuxerreaway0–11.08–1.74L
5 SeptLe Manshome1–11.12–1.28D
30 AugParis FCaway0–30.78–2.38L
22 AugLorienthome0–01.05–1.28D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18OLNIC-BTTS
55.2%56.5%−1.3 pts0.55 / 0.580.455,218 / 915Comparable
seen 21 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Nice to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC
20.0%19.0%+1.0 pts0.18 / 0.200.824,022 / 1,822Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Lyon to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-OL
57.3%57.5%−0.2 pts0.57 / 0.580.43100 / 944Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-TIE
22.7%22.5%+0.2 pts0.22 / 0.230.782,866 / 1,187Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Nice to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC2
7.3%6.0%+1.3 pts0.05 / 0.070.95705 / 954Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Nice to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC3
2.0%3.0%−1.0 pts0.01 / 0.050.99506 / 300Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lyon to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-OL2
33.7%33.5%+0.2 pts0.32 / 0.350.681,114 / 25Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lyon to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-OL3
16.1%15.0%+1.1 pts0.14 / 0.160.86503 / 25Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-1
94.4%94.0%+0.4 pts0.93 / 0.950.072 / 1,405Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-2
79.4%81.0%−1.6 pts0.80 / 0.820.20919 / 200Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-3
56.3%57.5%−1.2 pts0.56 / 0.590.441,115 / 609Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-4
33.9%35.0%−1.1 pts0.34 / 0.360.66708 / 610Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-5
17.4%17.5%−0.1 pts0.17 / 0.180.83703 / 410Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-6
7.8%7.5%+0.3 pts0.07 / 0.080.93705 / 410Comparable
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:11:44.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
57.3%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
22.7%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
20.0%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
56.3%—
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
43.7%—

No pages observed.

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:11:44.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:28 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Lyonok11/10/2026, 11:37:16 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Niceok11/10/2026, 11:37:17 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home57.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw22.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away20.0%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x80.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x242.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1277.3%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes55.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no44.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.579.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.520.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.556.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.543.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.533.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.566.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.517.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.582.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.57.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.592.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.585.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.514.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.556.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.543.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.529.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.570.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.512.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.587.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.564.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.535.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.527.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.572.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.58.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.591.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.516.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.583.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.533.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.566.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.557.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.542.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.580.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.520.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.592.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.57.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.598.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home74.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away25.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 500 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:11:44