Got%OnIt
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Ligue 1·Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT

Paris FCvRennes

Paris FC
44%
Draw
25%
Rennes
32%

Got%OnIt gives Paris FC a 44% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.6 goals for Paris FC and 1.3 for Rennes.
  • Paris FC won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 a game.
  • Rennes won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Paris FC are 5th of 18 after 6 games; Rennes are 3rd.
  • Paris FC have won 3 and lost 1; Rennes have won 4 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Paris FC

  • L0–1at Lorient10 Oct
  • W2–1v Strasbourg19 Sept
  • D0–0v Lyon12 Sept
  • W3–2at Marseille6 Sept
  • W3–0v Nice30 Aug
  • D0–0at Estac Troyes22 Aug

Rennes

  • W4–1v Auxerre11 Oct
  • L0–4at Lyon19 Sept
  • D0–0at Sturm Graz16 Sept
  • W1–0v Marseille11 Sept
  • W2–1at Angers6 Sept
  • W3–2v Le Mans30 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Paris FC win43.6%43.5%−0.0 pts
Draw24.8%24.4%−0.4 pts
Rennes win31.6%32.1%+0.5 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.62 and 1.35). Paris FC 1.62 · Rennes 1.35 · total 2.97 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Paris FC–Rennes)

  1. 1–111.5%
  2. 2–19.1%
  3. 1–08.0%
  4. 1–27.6%
  5. 2–06.7%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Paris FC

Expected goals
1.62
Scoring vs average
×1.03
Conceding vs average
×1.07

Rennes

Expected goals
1.35
Scoring vs average
×1.07
Conceding vs average
×1.03
  • Paris FC (home): expected to score ×1.03 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.07 the average.
  • Rennes (away): expected to score ×1.07 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.03 the average.
  • Recent 298 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.58 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.25).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Paris FC
40 matches (39 with xG)
Rennes
117 matches (116 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home43.6%over-stated by 0.1 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 41.9%
1x2:draw24.8%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 22.3%
1x2:away31.6%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 29.8%
double_chance:1x68.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x256.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes59.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no40.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.594.6%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 94.3%
total_goals:under:0.55.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.579.9%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.4%
total_goals:under:1.520.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.557.0%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 56.3%
total_goals:under:2.543.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.534.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 34.0%
total_goals:under:3.565.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.518.0%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 15.9%
total_goals:under:4.582.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.58.1%under-stated by 0.0 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 7.2%
total_goals:under:5.591.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.580.2%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.7%
team_total:home:under:0.519.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.548.2%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 47.5%
team_total:home:under:1.551.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.522.2%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 21.6%
team_total:home:under:2.577.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.58.2%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.2%
team_total:home:under:3.591.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.574.1%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.5%
team_total:away:under:0.525.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.539.1%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 38.4%
team_total:away:under:1.560.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.515.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.0%
team_total:away:under:2.584.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.54.8%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.4%
team_total:away:under:3.595.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.59.3%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.3%
spread:away:+2.590.7%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.3%
spread:home:-1.522.5%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.5%
spread:away:+1.577.5%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.0%
spread:home:-0.543.6%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 41.7%
spread:away:+0.556.4%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 55.8%
spread:home:+0.568.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 67.7%
spread:away:-0.531.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 30.4%
spread:home:+1.585.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 85.4%
spread:away:-1.514.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 13.4%
spread:home:+2.595.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.55.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home57.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away42.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.17 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 1446614047062976197 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.19 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Paris FC win43.6%43.7% ± 0.2+0.18 pts
Draw24.8%24.2% ± 0.1−0.62 pts
Rennes win31.6%32.1% ± 0.1+0.44 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.17 pts (draw_no_bet:home); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Paris FC
25.9% ± 0.1 (exact 25.9%)
Rennes
19.9% ± 0.1 (exact 19.8%)

Goal difference (Paris FC minus Rennes)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.3% ± 0.0
  3. -41.1% ± 0.0
  4. -33.5% ± 0.1
  5. -29.2% ± 0.1
  6. -118.0% ± 0.1
  7. 024.2% ± 0.1
  8. 121.3% ± 0.1
  9. 213.2% ± 0.1
  10. 36.0% ± 0.1
  11. 42.3% ± 0.0
  12. 50.7% ± 0.0
  13. >50.2% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Paris FC 1–1 Rennes11.2% ± 0.111.5%
Paris FC 2–1 Rennes9.1% ± 0.19.1%
Paris FC 1–0 Rennes8.3% ± 0.18.0%
Paris FC 1–2 Rennes7.6% ± 0.17.6%
Paris FC 0–1 Rennes7.0% ± 0.16.6%

Expected goals (simulated)

Paris FC
mean 1.62 · variance 1.61 · ± 0.004
Rennes
mean 1.35 · variance 1.35 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.6 pts (to 24.2%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Paris FC and +0.00 for Rennes.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Paris FC win43.6%43.9%+0.3 pts
Draw24.8%24.2%−0.6 pts
Rennes win31.6%31.9%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.62 – 1.351.62 – 1.35+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 105 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Paris FC

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice K. Trapp)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Rennes

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice B. Samba)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move paris fc win by +0.8 pts (to 44.4%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Paris FC and −0.04 for Rennes.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Paris FC win43.6%44.4%+0.8 pts
Draw24.8%24.4%−0.4 pts
Rennes win31.6%31.2%−0.4 pts
Expected goals1.62 – 1.351.61 – 1.31−0.01 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 105 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Paris FC rate ×0.99 band 0.74–1.36

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07777777777777772 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.006) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED

Rennes rate ×0.97 band 0.71–1.39

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07777777777777772 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move paris fc win by +0.8 pts (to 44.4%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Paris FC and −0.04 for Rennes.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Paris FC win43.6%44.4%+0.8 pts
Draw24.8%24.4%−0.4 pts
Rennes win31.6%31.2%−0.4 pts
Expected goals1.62 – 1.351.61 – 1.31−0.01 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 105 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Paris FC

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice K. Trapp)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Rennes

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice B. Samba)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Paris FC rate ×0.99 band 0.74–1.36

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07777777777777772 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.006) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED

Rennes rate ×0.97 band 0.71–1.39

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07777777777777772 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Paris FC win43.6%44.0%+0.5 pts
Draw24.8%24.0%−0.8 pts
Rennes win31.6%32.0%+0.3 pts
Expected goals—1.65 – 1.37+0.03 / +0.02

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 607 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)E. Lepaul 38% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Paris FC

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 68% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
I. Kebbal F21.2% ± 0.12.4% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00291%
L. Sinayoko F18.8% ± 0.11.9% ± 0.00.21 ± 0.00183%
L. Koleosho M9.7% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00178%
J. Ikone F9.0% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00113%
S. Chergui D6.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00163%
P. Pagis M4.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00183%
R. Matondo M4.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00122%
P. Lees-Melou M3.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00196%

Rennes

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 81% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
E. Lepaul F38.0% ± 0.28.3% ± 0.10.48 ± 0.00282%
M. Tamari M12.4% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00171%
V. Rongier M7.5% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00186%
M. Camara M6.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00187%
A. Thomasson M6.0% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00179%
Q. Merlin D4.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00146%
L. Blas F4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00143%
P. Frankowski D3.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00152%

Run 1000 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 495, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T15:15:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Rennes)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Paris FC)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Ligue 1 matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationParis FC 8 d rest · Rennes 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Paris FC

7.9 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Lens +6.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptL1H StrasbourgW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctL1A LorientL 0–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctL1A Lens+6.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 40 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Paris FC: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. LopezM090—
D. Coppola · regularD090—
P. Lees-Melou · regularM078—
P. PagisM090—
H. Traoré · regularD090—
L. SinayokoF086—
L. Koleosho · regularM090—
K. Trapp · regularG090—
A. Camara · regularD065—
I. Kebbal · regularM065—
S. CherguiD066—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Rennes

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A Juventus +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (H OFI) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptL1A LyonL 0–4counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctL1H AuxerreW 4–1counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELH OFINScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELA Juventus+4.1 d
  • Sun 25 OctL1H Strasbourg+7 d
  • Sat 31 OctL1A Nice+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 41 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Q. Merlin (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 83 CONFIRMED

Rennes: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. ThomassonM6767—
B. ReynoldsD9090—
A. RouaultD9090—
M. NagidaD8585—
C. Cresswell · regularD9090—
M. Camara · regularM9090—
Mousa Tamari · regularF6767—
I. SoumaréF7777—
E. Lepaul · regularF7716790' France, 12.9 d before
V. Rongier · regularM9090—
B. Samba · regularG9090—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 360 minutes — P. Frankowski (90' Poland, 12.9 d before); S. Szymański (90' Poland, 12.9 d before); L. Blas (90' Martinique, 12.7 d before); E. Lepaul (90' France, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Paris FC44%41%41%
Draw25%28%28%
Rennes32%31%30%
Based on 9 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 19 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Paris FC

  • Paris FC: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 0.8 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • L0–1at Lorient10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Strasbourg19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Lyon12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Marseille6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Nice30 Aug · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Estac Troyes22 Aug · in model evidence

Rennes

  • Rennes: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.9 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 90%.
  • W4–1v Auxerre11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–4at Lyon19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Marseille11 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Angers6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Le Mans30 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Paris Saint Germain23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal15%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more8%
Over 1.580%
Over 2.557%
Over 3.535%
Both teams score60%

Paris FC

Expected goals1.62
Scores at least once80%
Scores 2 or more48%
Clean sheet26%

Rennes

Expected goals1.35
Scores at least once74%
Scores 2 or more39%
Clean sheet20%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 3 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season5th v 3rd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Paris FC

5th of 18 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L1 from 6 games · scored 8, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games LWDWW (most recent last)

Rennes

3rd of 18 · 13 pts · W4 D1 L1 from 6 games · scored 12, conceded 10

Home W3 D1 L0 (scored 10, conceded 5) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WLWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Paris FC to win43.6%43.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 42¢
Draw24.8%24.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 29¢
Rennes to win31.6%32.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 31¢
Double chance
Paris FC or draw limited evidence68.4%67.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
Rennes or draw limited evidence56.4%56.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 60¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.2%75.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 72¢
Draw no bet
Paris FC to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence57.9%57.7% ± 0.2no
Rennes to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence42.1%42.3% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence94.6%94.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.4%5.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 7¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence79.9%79.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 81¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence20.1%20.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 21¢
Over 2.5 goals in total57.0%57.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
Under 2.5 goals in total43.0%43.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence34.6%34.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 37¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence65.4%65.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 66¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence18.0%17.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence82.0%82.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence8.1%8.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence91.9%92.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence59.7%59.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 64¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence40.3%40.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 39¢
Team goals
Paris FC over 0.5 goals limited evidence80.2%80.1% ± 0.1no
Paris FC under 0.5 goals limited evidence19.8%19.9% ± 0.1no
Paris FC over 1.5 goals limited evidence48.2%48.2% ± 0.2no
Paris FC under 1.5 goals limited evidence51.8%51.8% ± 0.2no
Paris FC over 2.5 goals limited evidence22.2%22.1% ± 0.1no
Paris FC under 2.5 goals limited evidence77.8%77.9% ± 0.1no
Paris FC over 3.5 goals limited evidence8.2%8.1% ± 0.1no
Paris FC under 3.5 goals limited evidence91.8%91.9% ± 0.1no
Rennes over 0.5 goals limited evidence74.1%74.1% ± 0.1no
Rennes under 0.5 goals limited evidence25.9%25.9% ± 0.1no
Rennes over 1.5 goals limited evidence39.1%39.1% ± 0.2no
Rennes under 1.5 goals limited evidence60.9%60.9% ± 0.2no
Rennes over 2.5 goals limited evidence15.4%15.4% ± 0.1no
Rennes under 2.5 goals limited evidence84.6%84.6% ± 0.1no
Rennes over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.8%4.7% ± 0.1no
Rennes under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.2%95.3% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Paris FC to win by 3 or more limited evidence9.3%9.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Paris FC to win by 2 or more limited evidence22.5%22.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 22¢
Paris FC to win by 1 or more limited evidence43.6%43.7% ± 0.2no
Paris FC not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence68.4%67.9% ± 0.1no
Paris FC not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence85.9%85.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Paris FC not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.0%95.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Rennes to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.0%4.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Rennes to win by 2 or more limited evidence14.1%14.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Rennes to win by 1 or more limited evidence31.6%32.1% ± 0.1no
Rennes not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence56.4%56.3% ± 0.2no
Rennes not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence77.5%77.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 81¢
Rennes not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence90.7%90.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Clean sheet
Paris FC clean sheet grid25.9%25.9% ± 0.1no
Rennes clean sheet grid19.8%19.9% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.2% ± 0.1not listed
Paris FC by exactly 1—21.3% ± 0.1not listed
Paris FC by exactly 2—13.2% ± 0.1not listed
Paris FC by exactly 3—6.0% ± 0.1not listed
Paris FC by exactly 4—2.3% ± 0.0not listed
Paris FC by exactly 5—0.7% ± 0.0not listed
Rennes by exactly 1—18.0% ± 0.1not listed
Rennes by exactly 2—9.2% ± 0.1not listed
Rennes by exactly 3—3.5% ± 0.1not listed
Rennes by exactly 4—1.1% ± 0.0not listed
Rennes by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Paris FC by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Rennes by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Paris FC 1–1 Rennes—11.2% ± 0.1not listed
Paris FC 2–1 Rennes—9.1% ± 0.1not listed
Paris FC 1–0 Rennes—8.3% ± 0.1not listed
Paris FC 1–2 Rennes—7.6% ± 0.1not listed
Paris FC 0–1 Rennes—7.0% ± 0.1not listed

Paris FC v Rennes: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Paris FC to win (90 minutes)
44%
41%
YES on Paris FC to WinParis FC wins in 90 minutes
44%42¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,266 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Rennes to win (90 minutes)
32%
30%
YES on Rennes to WinRennes wins in 90 minutes
32%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,105 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
28%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%29¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawParis FC or Rennes wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%72¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 520 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Rennes to WinParis FC wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
68%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,005 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Paris FC to WinRennes wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
56%60¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 925 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%95¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 929 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
80%
80%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
80%81¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 424 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
20%21¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 427 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
57%
57%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
57%58¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
43%44¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 648 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
35%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
35%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 926 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
65%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 900 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
18%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 503 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
82%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 644 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
8%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 505 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
92%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 212 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
60%
63%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
60%64¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 889 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
40%39¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 430 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Winning margin
Paris FC to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
21%
Limited evidence
YES on Paris FC to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsParis FC wins by 2 goals or more
22%22¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 929 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Paris FC to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRennes wins or the match is drawn, or Paris FC wins by 1 goal · Paris FC not by 2+ goals
78%81¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 655 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Paris FC to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Paris FC to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsParis FC wins by 3 goals or more
9%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 505 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Paris FC to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRennes wins or the match is drawn, or Paris FC wins by 2 goals or fewer · Paris FC not by 3+ goals
91%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 40 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Rennes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Rennes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRennes wins by 2 goals or more
14%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 504 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Rennes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsParis FC wins or the match is drawn, or Rennes wins by 1 goal · Rennes not by 2+ goals
86%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 26 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Rennes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Rennes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRennes wins by 3 goals or more
5%9¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 26 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Rennes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsParis FC wins or the match is drawn, or Rennes wins by 2 goals or fewer · Rennes not by 3+ goals
95%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,386 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 43.6% · draw 24.8% · away 31.6%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.35
Paris FC eligible matches
40 (39 with xG)
Rennes eligible matches
117 (116 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Paris FCOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctLorientaway0–10.99–0.60L
19 SeptStrasbourghome2–1—W
12 SeptLyonhome0–00.30–0.50D
6 SeptMarseilleaway3–23.29–1.42W
30 AugNicehome3–02.38–0.78W
22 AugEstac Troyesaway0–01.80–0.42D
RennesOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctAuxerrehome4–12.21–1.51W
19 SeptLyonaway0–41.37–3.13L
16 SeptSturm Grazaway0–0—D
11 SeptMarseillehome1–01.88–1.34W
6 SeptAngersaway2–11.54–1.66W
30 AugLe Manshome3–23.12–3.06W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18PARREN-BTTS
59.7%62.5%−2.8 pts0.61 / 0.640.39889 / 430Comparable
seen 19 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Paris FC to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-PAR
43.6%41.0%+2.6 pts0.40 / 0.420.603,266 / 925Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Rennes to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-REN
31.6%30.0%+1.6 pts0.29 / 0.310.714,105 / 1,005Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-TIE
24.8%28.5%−3.7 pts0.28 / 0.290.72330 / 520Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Paris FC to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-PAR2
22.5%20.5%+2.0 pts0.19 / 0.220.81929 / 655Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Paris FC to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-PAR3
9.3%7.5%+1.8 pts0.06 / 0.090.94505 / 40Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Rennes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-REN2
14.1%13.0%+1.1 pts0.12 / 0.140.88504 / 26Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Rennes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-REN3
5.0%6.0%−1.0 pts0.03 / 0.090.9726 / 1,386Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-1
94.6%94.0%+0.6 pts0.93 / 0.950.072 / 929Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-2
79.9%80.0%−0.1 pts0.79 / 0.810.21424 / 427Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-3
57.0%57.0%+0.0 pts0.56 / 0.580.44500 / 648Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-4
34.6%35.5%−0.9 pts0.34 / 0.370.66926 / 900Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-5
18.0%18.0%−0.0 pts0.17 / 0.190.83503 / 644Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-6
8.1%8.0%+0.1 pts0.07 / 0.090.93505 / 212Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:09:27.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home41.4%40.0% – 41.7%43.5%2.30943.6%+2.2 pts
1x2:draw27.6%26.0% – 29.5%29.0%3.45924.8%−2.9 pts
1x2:away31.3%29.9% – 33.1%33.3%3.00931.6%+0.4 pts

9 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:30.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.557.2%56.6% – 58.9%59.9%1.67657.0%−0.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.542.8%41.1% – 43.4%44.9%2.23643.0%+0.2 pts

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:31.

Every bookmaker page used (15)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.36 · home 2.3111/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.80 · draw 3.50 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.19 · draw 3.23 · home 2.3511/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBOMatch winneraway 2.68 · draw 3.28 · home 2.2111/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
William HillMatch winneraway 3.00 · draw 3.30 · home 2.2011/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Match winneraway 2.90 · draw 3.60 · home 2.2511/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.00 · draw 3.55 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.28 · draw 3.45 · home 2.3711/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.05 · draw 3.45 · home 2.3211/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.61 · under 2.5 2.1511/10/2026, 11:37:3111/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 11:37:3111/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2311/10/2026, 11:37:3111/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 11:37:3111/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.72 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:3111/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.70 · under 2.5 2.2211/10/2026, 11:37:3111/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:09:27.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:26 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Paris FCok11/10/2026, 11:37:20 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Rennesok11/10/2026, 11:37:18 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home43.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away31.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x68.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x256.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes59.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no40.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.579.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.520.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.557.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.543.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.534.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.565.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.518.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.582.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.58.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.580.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.519.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.548.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.551.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.522.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.577.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.58.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.591.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.574.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.525.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.539.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.560.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.515.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.584.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.54.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.595.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.59.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.590.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.522.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.577.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.543.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.556.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.568.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.531.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.585.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.514.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home57.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away42.1%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 495 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:09:27