Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT

FulhamvHull City

Fulham

41%

Draw

27%

Hull City

32%

Got%OnIt gives Fulham a 41% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: Hull City has little or no Premier League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Fulham and 1.1 for Hull City.
Fulham won 0 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 a game.
Hull City won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

Hull City has little or no Premier League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Fulham are 20th of 20 after 6 games; Hull City are 10th.
Fulham have won 0 and lost 4; Hull City have won 2 and lost 1.

Recent matches the model used

Fulham

L1–2at Ipswich10 Oct
D1–1v Manchester United20 Sept
D0–0at Liverpool12 Sept
L2–3v Crystal Palace5 Sept
L0–1at Sunderland30 Aug
L2–3v Chelsea24 Aug

Hull City

D2–2v Everton11 Oct
L1–2at Newcastle19 Sept
D2–2at Chelsea12 Sept
D0–0v Aston Villa5 Sept
W1–0at Coventry29 Aug
W2–0v Manchester United22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 561, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Fulham)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Hull City)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:22 PDT1199 finished Premier League matches (1199 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationFulham 1 absent regular · Hull City 6 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Fulham

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Coventry +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptPLH Manchester UnitedD 1–1counted as workload
Sat 10 OctPLA IpswichL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctPLA Coventry+7 d
Wed 28 OctEFLH Crystal Palace+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 49 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Robinson (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.2 CONFIRMED

Fulham: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Oscar Bobb · regular	M	76	92	16' Norway, 12.8 d before
Gonzalo García	F	87	87	—
S. Charles	M	71	161	90' Northern Ireland, 11.8 d before
C. Bassey · regular	D	90	90	—
D. Affengruber	D	90	90	0' Austria, 12.9 d before
B. Leno · regular	G	90	90	—
K. Tete	D	90	90	—
R. Sessegnon	D	90	90	—
S. Berge · regular	M	90	180	90' Norway, 12.8 d before
Joshua King	M	76	76	—
A. Iwobi · regular	M	87	87	—

International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 412 minutes — Oscar Bobb (16' Norway, 12.8 d before); H. Larsson (36' Sweden, 11.8 d before); S. Charles (90' Northern Ireland, 11.8 d before); S. Berge (90' Norway, 12.8 d before); J. Andersen (90' Denmark, 12.8 d before); T. Castagne (90' Belgium, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Hull City

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Brentford +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptPLA NewcastleL 1–2counted as workload
Sun 11 OctPLH EvertonD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 25 OctPLH Brentford+8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 10 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 5 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 81.3 CONFIRMED

Hull City: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
J. Gelhardt	M	64	64	—
L. Coyle · regular	D	90	90	—
N. Mendy	D	90	90	—
S. Thomas	M	86	176	90' Wales, 12.8 d before
R. Slater · regular	M	75	75	—
R. Giles · regular	D	64	64	—
M. Crooks	M	65	65	—
K. Tzolakis	G	90	180	90' Greece, 12.8 d before
O. McBurnie · regular	F	90	202	46' Scotland, 13.8 d before; 66' Scotland, 10.8 d before
J. Egan · regular	D	90	90	0' Rep. Of Ireland, 12.8 d before
S. Ajayi	D	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 296 minutes — P. McNair (4' Northern Ireland, 11.8 d before); S. Thomas (90' Wales, 12.8 d before); K. Tzolakis (90' Greece, 12.8 d before); O. McBurnie (46' Scotland, 13.8 d before; 66' Scotland, 10.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Fulham	41%	56%	57%
Draw	27%	24%	24%
Hull City	32%	20%	19%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Fulham a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (41% vs 57%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 6 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Fulham

Fulham: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 0.9 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.

L1–2at Ipswich10 Oct · in model evidence
D1–1v Manchester United20 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0at Liverpool12 Sept · in model evidence
L2–3v Crystal Palace5 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1at Sunderland30 Aug · in model evidence
L2–3v Chelsea24 Aug · in model evidence

Hull City

Hull City: 6 finished matches (6 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 83%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 67%, over 2.5 in 50%.

D2–2v Everton11 Oct · in model evidence
L1–2at Newcastle19 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2at Chelsea12 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0v Aston Villa5 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0at Coventry29 Aug · in model evidence
W2–0v Manchester United22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	8%
1 goal	21%
2 goals	26%
3 goals	21%
4 goals	13%
5 goals	6%
6 or more	4%
Over 1.5	71%
Over 2.5	45%
Over 3.5	24%
Both teams score	50%

Fulham

Expected goals	1.32
Scores at least once	73%
Scores 2 or more	38%
Clean sheet	32%

Hull City

Expected goals	1.14
Scores at least once	68%
Scores 2 or more	32%
Clean sheet	27%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season20th v 10th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Fulham

20th of 20 · 2 pts · W0 D2 L4 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 10

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 5, conceded 7) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 1, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games LDDLL (most recent last)

Hull City

10th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L1 from 5 games · scored 6, conceded 4

Home W1 D1 L0 (scored 2, conceded 0) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LDDWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Fulham to win (90 minutes)

41%

57%

YES on Fulham to WinFulham wins in 90 minutes

41%58¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,284 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Hull City to win (90 minutes)

32%

19%

YES on Hull City to WinHull City wins in 90 minutes

32%20¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 18,457 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

27%

24%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

27%24¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 9,406 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawFulham or Hull City wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

73%77¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 820 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Hull City to WinFulham wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

68%82¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 12,224 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Fulham to WinHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

59%43¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,206 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

92%

94%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

92%95¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 732 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

8%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,198 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

71%

78%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

71%79¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

29%23¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,289 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

45%

55%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

45%56¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 512 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

55%46¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,743 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

24%

33%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

24%34¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,215 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

76%69¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,915 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

17%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

10%18¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,131 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

90%84¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 9 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

4%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,220 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

96%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,365 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

50%

55%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

50%56¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,849 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

50%47¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,026 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Winning margin

Fulham to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

19%

33%

Limited evidence

YES on Fulham to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFulham wins by 2 goals or more

19%34¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,301 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Fulham to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsHull City wins or the match is drawn, or Fulham wins by 1 goal · Fulham not by 2+ goals

81%69¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,395 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Fulham to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

16%

Limited evidence

YES on Fulham to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFulham wins by 3 goals or more

7%17¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,311 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Fulham to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsHull City wins or the match is drawn, or Fulham wins by 2 goals or fewer · Fulham not by 3+ goals

93%86¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 720 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Hull City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

13%

Limited evidence

YES on Hull City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsHull City wins by 2 goals or more

13%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,309 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Hull City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFulham wins or the match is drawn, or Hull City wins by 1 goal · Hull City not by 2+ goals

87%95¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 24,841 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Hull City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Hull City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsHull City wins by 3 goals or more

4%4¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 516 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Hull City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFulham wins or the match is drawn, or Hull City wins by 2 goals or fewer · Hull City not by 3+ goals

96%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 40.7% · draw 27.1% · away 32.2%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.14
Fulham eligible matches: 120 (120 with xG)
Hull City eligible matches: 6 (6 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1199 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:59
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: away side has 6 eligible matches; away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 12 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
thin evidence: away side has 6 eligible matches
away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
the model's home probability is 17% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's away probability is 13% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Fulham	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Ipswich	away	1–2	1.87–1.22	L
20 Sept	Manchester United	home	1–1	1.62–1.60	D
12 Sept	Liverpool	away	0–0	0.70–1.28	D
5 Sept	Crystal Palace	home	2–3	3.14–1.97	L
30 Aug	Sunderland	away	0–1	0.95–2.02	L
24 Aug	Chelsea	home	2–3	1.33–2.24	L

Hull City	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Everton	home	2–2	1.42–1.73	D
19 Sept	Newcastle	away	1–2	1.59–1.44	L
12 Sept	Chelsea	away	2–2	1.38–0.91	D
5 Sept	Aston Villa	home	0–0	0.57–1.93	D
29 Aug	Coventry	away	1–0	0.72–1.29	W
22 Aug	Manchester United	home	2–0	1.01–1.83	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17FULHUL-BTTS	50.0%	54.5%	−4.5 pts	0.53 / 0.56	0.47	4,849 / 4,026	Comparable seen 32 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Fulham to win (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL	40.7%	57.5%	−16.8 pts	0.57 / 0.58	0.43	1,284 / 3,206	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Hull City to win (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL	32.2%	19.0%	+13.2 pts	0.18 / 0.20	0.82	18,457 / 12,224	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-TIE	27.1%	23.5%	+3.6 pts	0.23 / 0.24	0.77	9,406 / 820	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Fulham to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL2	18.5%	32.5%	−14.0 pts	0.31 / 0.34	0.69	1,301 / 3,395	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Fulham to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL3	6.6%	15.5%	−8.9 pts	0.14 / 0.17	0.86	1,311 / 720	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Hull City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL2	13.1%	6.5%	+6.6 pts	0.05 / 0.08	0.95	1,309 / 24,841	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Hull City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL3	4.1%	2.5%	+1.6 pts	0.01 / 0.04	0.99	516 / 300	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-1	91.5%	94.0%	−2.5 pts	0.93 / 0.95	0.07	732 / 1,198	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-2	70.6%	78.0%	−7.4 pts	0.77 / 0.79	0.23	2 / 2,289	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-3	44.7%	55.0%	−10.3 pts	0.54 / 0.56	0.46	512 / 1,743	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-4	23.5%	32.5%	−9.0 pts	0.31 / 0.34	0.69	1,215 / 1,915	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-5	10.4%	17.0%	−6.6 pts	0.16 / 0.18	0.84	2,131 / 9	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-6	4.0%	7.0%	−3.0 pts	0.06 / 0.08	0.94	1,220 / 7,365	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:09:13.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	56.5%	55.4% – 57.3%	59.9%	1.67	10	40.7%	−15.8 pts
1x2:draw	23.9%	23.2% – 24.3%	25.2%	3.98	10	27.1%	+3.2 pts
1x2:away	19.6%	19.0% – 20.3%	20.9%	4.78	10	32.2%	+12.6 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:20.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	54.6%	54.2% – 56.0%	57.1%	1.75	7	44.7%	−9.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	45.4%	44.0% – 45.8%	47.6%	2.10	7	55.3%	+9.9 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:20.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 5.05 · draw 4.00 · home 1.68	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Betfair	Match winner	away 4.75 · draw 4.00 · home 1.62	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 4.85 · draw 4.00 · home 1.67	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBO	Match winner	away 4.36 · draw 3.64 · home 1.60	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
William Hill	Match winner	away 4.80 · draw 3.90 · home 1.67	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365	Match winner	away 4.75 · draw 3.90 · home 1.65	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Dafabet	Match winner	away 4.80 · draw 4.00 · home 1.69	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBet	Match winner	away 5.18 · draw 4.11 · home 1.73	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Betano	Match winner	away 4.75 · draw 3.95 · home 1.70	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictor	Match winner	away 4.75 · draw 3.90 · home 1.65	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.76 · under 2.5 2.09	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.76 · under 2.5 2.08	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.81 · under 2.5 2.15	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 2.12	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.68 · under 2.5 2.02	11/10/2026, 09:31:20	11/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:09:13.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:08 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Fulham	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:07 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Hull City	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:11 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	40.7%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	27.1%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	32.2%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	67.8%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	59.3%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	72.9%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	50.0%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	50.0%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	91.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	8.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	70.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	29.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	44.7%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	55.3%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	23.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	76.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	10.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	89.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	4.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	96.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	73.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	26.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	38.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	61.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	14.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	85.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	4.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	95.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	68.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	31.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	31.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	68.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	10.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	89.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	2.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	97.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	6.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	93.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	18.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	81.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	40.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	59.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	67.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	32.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	86.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	13.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	95.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	4.1%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	55.8%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	44.2%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 561 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:09:13