Got%OnIt
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La Liga·Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Deportivo La CorunavLevante

Deportivo La Coruna
48%
Draw
24%
Levante
28%

Got%OnIt gives Deportivo La Coruna a 48% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Worth knowing: We have seen only 8 La Liga matches for Deportivo La Coruna, so the estimate is less certain than usual.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.2 for Levante.
  • Deportivo La Coruna won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 a game.
  • Levante won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • We have seen only 8 La Liga matches for Deportivo La Coruna, so the estimate is less certain than usual.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Deportivo La Coruna are 7th of 20 after 7 games; Levante are 17th.
  • Deportivo La Coruna have won 2 and lost 1; Levante have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Deportivo La Coruna

  • L2–3at Real Sociedad11 Oct
  • D1–1v Real Betis20 Sept
  • L0–1v Sevilla16 Sept
  • D1–1at Getafe13 Sept
  • W3–2at Villarreal5 Sept
  • W3–1v Valencia30 Aug

Levante

  • L1–3at Villarreal20 Sept
  • L2–4v Barcelona13 Sept
  • D0–0at Malaga6 Sept
  • W5–2v Real Betis29 Aug
  • D0–0at Osasuna24 Aug
  • L0–3at Espanyol16 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Deportivo La Coruna win48.1%53.2%+5.0 pts
Draw24.3%22.2%−2.1 pts
Levante win27.6%24.6%−3.0 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.72 and 1.25). Deportivo La Coruna 1.72 · Levante 1.25 · total 2.97 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Deportivo La Coruna–Levante)

  1. 1–111.3%
  2. 2–19.5%
  3. 1–08.5%
  4. 2–07.6%
  5. 1–26.9%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Deportivo La Coruna

Expected goals
1.72
Scoring vs average
×1.07
Conceding vs average
×1.08

Levante

Expected goals
1.25
Scoring vs average
×1.08
Conceding vs average
×1.07
  • Deportivo La Coruna (home): expected to score ×1.07 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.08 the average.
  • Levante (away): expected to score ×1.08 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.07 the average.
  • Recent 377 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.61 home and 1.16 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.39).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Deportivo La Coruna
8 matches (8 with xG)
Levante
44 matches (44 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home48.1%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 46.7%
1x2:draw24.3%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 21.8%
1x2:away27.6%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 24.7%
double_chance:1x72.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x251.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes58.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no41.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.594.6%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 94.3%
total_goals:under:0.55.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.579.9%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.4%
total_goals:under:1.520.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.557.0%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 56.3%
total_goals:under:2.543.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.534.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 33.9%
total_goals:under:3.565.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.517.9%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 16.8%
total_goals:under:4.582.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.58.1%under-stated by 1.0 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 7.3%
total_goals:under:5.591.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.582.1%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.6%
team_total:home:under:0.517.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.551.3%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 50.6%
team_total:home:under:1.548.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.524.8%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.2%
team_total:home:under:2.575.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.59.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.6%
team_total:home:under:3.590.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.571.3%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 70.7%
team_total:away:under:0.528.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.535.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 34.9%
team_total:away:under:1.564.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.513.1%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 12.7%
team_total:away:under:2.586.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.53.8%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.4%
team_total:away:under:3.596.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.511.3%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.3%
spread:away:+2.588.7%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.2%
spread:home:-1.526.0%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.1%
spread:away:+1.574.0%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.4%
spread:home:-0.548.1%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 46.3%
spread:away:+0.551.9%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 51.2%
spread:home:+0.572.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 71.8%
spread:away:-0.527.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 26.4%
spread:home:+1.588.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.0%
spread:away:-1.511.6%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.8%
spread:home:+2.596.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.53.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home63.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away36.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.43 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 3664714129319680945 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.14 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Deportivo La Coruna win48.1%48.4% ± 0.2+0.20 pts
Draw24.3%23.9% ± 0.1−0.37 pts
Levante win27.6%27.7% ± 0.1+0.16 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.43 pts (total_goals:over:1.5); 2 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Deportivo La Coruna
29.0% ± 0.1 (exact 28.7%)
Levante
18.1% ± 0.1 (exact 17.9%)

Goal difference (Deportivo La Coruna minus Levante)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -40.8% ± 0.0
  4. -32.7% ± 0.1
  5. -27.6% ± 0.1
  6. -116.4% ± 0.1
  7. 023.9% ± 0.1
  8. 122.4% ± 0.1
  9. 214.7% ± 0.1
  10. 37.1% ± 0.1
  11. 42.9% ± 0.1
  12. 51.0% ± 0.0
  13. >50.3% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Levante11.0% ± 0.111.3%
Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Levante9.4% ± 0.19.5%
Deportivo La Coruna 1–0 Levante9.0% ± 0.18.5%
Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Levante7.6% ± 0.17.6%
Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Levante6.9% ± 0.16.9%

Expected goals (simulated)

Deportivo La Coruna
mean 1.71 · variance 1.73 · ± 0.004
Levante
mean 1.24 · variance 1.24 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.6 pts (to 23.7%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Deportivo La Coruna and −0.01 for Levante.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Deportivo La Coruna win48.1%48.7%+0.6 pts
Draw24.3%23.7%−0.6 pts
Levante win27.6%27.6%+0.0 pts
Expected goals1.72 – 1.251.72 – 1.24+0.00 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 3 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: P. Aubameyang, Z. Eddahchouri, M. CasadoESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Roman)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Levante

Attack ×0.99 band 0.99–1.00 ESTIMATED · 1.9% of goals share out

  • H. Sotelo M Questionable (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Primo G Questionable (Shoulder Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Etta Eyong F Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 3.9% · effect −1.9% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Ryan)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move draw by −0.4 pts (to 23.9%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Deportivo La Coruna and −0.02 for Levante.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Deportivo La Coruna win48.1%48.4%+0.2 pts
Draw24.3%23.9%−0.4 pts
Levante win27.6%27.8%+0.2 pts
Expected goals1.72 – 1.251.70 – 1.23−0.02 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 3 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Deportivo La Coruna rate ×0.99 band 0.75–1.33

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.15656565656565657 · contribution -0.003 (-0.014 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Levante rate ×0.99 band 0.74–1.31

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.15656565656565657 · contribution 0.001 (-0.010 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move deportivo la coruna win by +0.5 pts (to 48.6%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Deportivo La Coruna and −0.03 for Levante.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Deportivo La Coruna win48.1%48.6%+0.5 pts
Draw24.3%23.9%−0.4 pts
Levante win27.6%27.5%−0.1 pts
Expected goals1.72 – 1.251.70 – 1.22−0.02 / −0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 3 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: P. Aubameyang, Z. Eddahchouri, M. CasadoESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Roman)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Levante

Attack ×0.99 band 0.99–1.00 ESTIMATED · 1.9% of goals share out

  • H. Sotelo M Questionable (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Primo G Questionable (Shoulder Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Etta Eyong F Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 3.9% · effect −1.9% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Ryan)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Deportivo La Coruna rate ×0.99 band 0.75–1.33

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.15656565656565657 · contribution -0.003 (-0.014 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Levante rate ×0.99 band 0.74–1.31

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.15656565656565657 · contribution 0.001 (-0.010 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Deportivo La Coruna win48.1%48.5%+0.3 pts
Draw24.3%23.8%−0.5 pts
Levante win27.6%27.7%+0.2 pts
Expected goals—1.71 – 1.24−0.01 / −0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 541 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)P. Aubameyang 45% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Deportivo La Coruna

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 81% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
P. Aubameyang F45.1% ± 0.212.1% ± 0.10.60 ± 0.00253%
M. Soriano M14.0% ± 0.11.1% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00183%
Luismi Cruz F11.1% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00171%
Diego Villares M9.2% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00125%
Y. Hernandez F8.4% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00137%
Z. Eddahchouri F5.9% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.0014%
D. Barcia D5.3% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.0017%
N. Carillo M2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0000%

Levante

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 48% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
I. Romero F11.6% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00175%
Dela D11.4% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.001100%
R. Brugue M10.7% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00175%
J. A. Olasagasti M5.9% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.001100%
V. Garcia D2.9% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00132%
E. Bardeli M2.6% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00157%
M. Sanchez D2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00096%
Etta Eyong F0.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.00 ± 0.0000%

Run 967 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 462, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Levante)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Deportivo La Coruna)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-16T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished La Liga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationDeportivo La Coruna 1 absent regular · Levante 4 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:13 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Deportivo La Coruna

5.2 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Atletico Madrid +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptLLH Real BetisD 1–1counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctLLA Real SociedadL 2–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctLLA Atletico Madrid+8 d
  • Thu 29 OctCdRA Auriense+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 12 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: P. Aubameyang (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 75.9 CONFIRMED

Deportivo La Coruna: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
David MellaM4545—
Luismi CruzF5757—
Mario Soriano · regularM9090—
J. GiménezD9090—
Leo Román · regularG9090—
Ximo Navarro · regularD5757—
PekeM9090—
B. EdeD9090—
B. Nsongo · regularF9090—
Diego VillaresM5757—
G. Quagliata · regularD7979—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Levante

4 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Athletic Club +5 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptLLA VillarrealL 1–3counted as workload
  • Mon 12 OctLLH SevillaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctLLH Athletic Club+5 d
  • Sun 25 OctLLA Real Sociedad+8.9 d
  • Wed 28 OctCdRA Tarancón+12 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 20 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 6 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Levante: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Sanchez · regularD00—
M. Ryan · regularG00—
J. Toljan · regularD00—
Dela · regularD00—
A. MandiD00—
E. BardeliM00—
O. ReyM00—
R. BrugueF00—
T. FernandezF00—
I. Romero · regularF00—
J. A. Olasagasti · regularM00—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Deportivo La Coruna48%45%45%
Draw24%28%28%
Levante28%28%28%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 5 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 23 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence8 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Deportivo La Coruna

  • Deportivo La Coruna: 8 finished matches (8 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 88%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 88%; over 1.5 goals in 88%, over 2.5 in 38%.
  • L2–3at Real Sociedad11 Oct · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Real Betis20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Sevilla16 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Getafe13 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Villarreal5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1v Valencia30 Aug · in model evidence

Levante

  • Levante: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.7 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L1–3at Villarreal20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–4v Barcelona13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Malaga6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–2v Real Betis29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Osasuna24 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Espanyol16 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal15%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more8%
Over 1.580%
Over 2.557%
Over 3.535%
Both teams score59%

Deportivo La Coruna

Expected goals1.72
Scores at least once82%
Scores 2 or more51%
Clean sheet29%

Levante

Expected goals1.25
Scores at least once71%
Scores 2 or more36%
Clean sheet18%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season7th v 17th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Deportivo La Coruna

7th of 20 · 10 pts · W2 D4 L1 from 7 games · scored 10, conceded 8

Home W1 D2 L1 (scored 5, conceded 4) · Away W1 D2 L0 (scored 5, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 7 games

Last five league games DLDWW (most recent last)

Levante

17th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L3 from 6 games · scored 8, conceded 12

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 7, conceded 6) · Away W0 D2 L2 (scored 1, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games LLDWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Deportivo La Coruna to win48.1%48.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 46¢
Draw24.3%23.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 28¢
Levante to win27.6%27.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 28¢
Double chance
Deportivo La Coruna or draw limited evidence72.4%72.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Levante or draw limited evidence51.9%51.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 56¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.7%76.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Draw no bet
Deportivo La Coruna to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence63.6%63.6% ± 0.2no
Levante to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence36.4%36.4% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence94.6%94.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 94¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.4%5.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 8¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence79.9%79.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 75¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence20.1%20.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 26¢
Over 2.5 goals in total57.0%56.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 51¢
Under 2.5 goals in total43.0%43.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 51¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence34.6%34.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 29¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence65.4%65.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 73¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence17.9%17.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence82.1%82.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence8.1%8.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence91.9%92.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence58.8%58.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 55¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence41.2%41.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 47¢
Team goals
Deportivo La Coruna over 0.5 goals limited evidence82.1%81.9% ± 0.1no
Deportivo La Coruna under 0.5 goals limited evidence17.9%18.1% ± 0.1no
Deportivo La Coruna over 1.5 goals limited evidence51.3%51.1% ± 0.2no
Deportivo La Coruna under 1.5 goals limited evidence48.7%48.9% ± 0.2no
Deportivo La Coruna over 2.5 goals limited evidence24.8%24.6% ± 0.1no
Deportivo La Coruna under 2.5 goals limited evidence75.2%75.4% ± 0.1no
Deportivo La Coruna over 3.5 goals limited evidence9.6%9.6% ± 0.1no
Deportivo La Coruna under 3.5 goals limited evidence90.4%90.4% ± 0.1no
Levante over 0.5 goals limited evidence71.3%71.0% ± 0.1no
Levante under 0.5 goals limited evidence28.7%29.0% ± 0.1no
Levante over 1.5 goals limited evidence35.5%35.2% ± 0.2no
Levante under 1.5 goals limited evidence64.5%64.8% ± 0.2no
Levante over 2.5 goals limited evidence13.1%13.0% ± 0.1no
Levante under 2.5 goals limited evidence86.9%87.0% ± 0.1no
Levante over 3.5 goals limited evidence3.8%3.7% ± 0.1no
Levante under 3.5 goals limited evidence96.2%96.3% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Deportivo La Coruna to win by 3 or more limited evidence11.3%11.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Deportivo La Coruna to win by 2 or more limited evidence26.0%26.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Deportivo La Coruna to win by 1 or more limited evidence48.1%48.4% ± 0.2no
Deportivo La Coruna not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence72.4%72.3% ± 0.1no
Deportivo La Coruna not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence88.4%88.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Deportivo La Coruna not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence96.2%96.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 98¢
Levante to win by 3 or more limited evidence3.8%3.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Levante to win by 2 or more limited evidence11.6%11.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 12¢
Levante to win by 1 or more limited evidence27.6%27.7% ± 0.1no
Levante not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence51.9%51.6% ± 0.2no
Levante not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence74.0%74.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 80¢
Levante not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence88.7%88.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Clean sheet
Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet grid28.7%29.0% ± 0.1no
Levante clean sheet grid17.9%18.1% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—23.9% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna by exactly 1—22.4% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna by exactly 2—14.7% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna by exactly 3—7.1% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna by exactly 4—2.9% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna by exactly 5—1.0% ± 0.0not listed
Levante by exactly 1—16.4% ± 0.1not listed
Levante by exactly 2—7.6% ± 0.1not listed
Levante by exactly 3—2.7% ± 0.1not listed
Levante by exactly 4—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
Levante by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Deportivo La Coruna by 6 or more—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Levante by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Levante—11.0% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Levante—9.4% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna 1–0 Levante—9.0% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Levante—7.6% ± 0.1not listed
Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Levante—6.9% ± 0.1not listed

Deportivo La Coruna v Levante: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Deportivo La Coruna to win (90 minutes)
48%
45%
YES on Deportivo La Coruna to WinDeportivo La Coruna wins in 90 minutes
48%46¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,027 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Levante to win (90 minutes)
28%
28%
YES on Levante to WinLevante wins in 90 minutes
28%28¢
Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
28%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%28¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 348 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawDeportivo La Coruna or Levante wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%73¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 63 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Levante to WinDeportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
72%73¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 647 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Deportivo La Coruna to WinLevante wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
52%56¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 359 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 744 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 754 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
80%
75%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
80%75¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
20%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 414 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
57%
50%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
57%51¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,918 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
43%51¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 456 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
35%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
35%29¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 919 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
65%73¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,717 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
18%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 727 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
82%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 722 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
8%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 737 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
92%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 100 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
59%
54%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
59%55¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 369 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
41%47¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,391 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Winning margin
Deportivo La Coruna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
26%
22%
Limited evidence
YES on Deportivo La Coruna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsDeportivo La Coruna wins by 2 goals or more
26%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 815 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Deportivo La Coruna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLevante wins or the match is drawn, or Deportivo La Coruna wins by 1 goal · Deportivo La Coruna not by 2+ goals
74%80¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 45 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Deportivo La Coruna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Deportivo La Coruna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsDeportivo La Coruna wins by 3 goals or more
11%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,390 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Deportivo La Coruna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLevante wins or the match is drawn, or Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2 goals or fewer · Deportivo La Coruna not by 3+ goals
89%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 34 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Levante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLevante wins by 2 goals or more
12%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,572 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Levante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsDeportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn, or Levante wins by 1 goal · Levante not by 2+ goals
88%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 63 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Levante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLevante wins by 3 goals or more
4%6¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Levante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsDeportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn, or Levante wins by 2 goals or fewer · Levante not by 3+ goals
96%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 48.1% · draw 24.3% · away 27.6%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.25
Deportivo La Coruna eligible matches
8 (8 with xG)
Levante eligible matches
44 (44 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
thin evidence: home side has 8 eligible matches; xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • thin evidence: home side has 8 eligible matches
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Deportivo La CorunaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctReal Sociedadaway2–31.91–1.53L
20 SeptReal Betishome1–12.09–0.80D
16 SeptSevillahome0–10.14–0.73L
13 SeptGetafeaway1–10.87–0.78D
5 SeptVillarrealaway3–20.79–1.14W
30 AugValenciahome3–11.42–1.40W
LevanteOpponentVenueScorexGResult
20 SeptVillarrealaway1–30.45–4.27L
13 SeptBarcelonahome2–42.42–2.58L
6 SeptMalagaaway0–00.81–1.46D
29 AugReal Betishome5–22.76–1.92W
24 AugOsasunaaway0–01.28–0.70D
16 AugEspanyolaway0–30.28–1.55L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT16DEPLEV-BTTS
58.8%54.0%+4.8 pts0.53 / 0.550.47369 / 1,391Comparable
seen 23 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Deportivo La Coruna to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP
48.1%45.0%+3.1 pts0.44 / 0.460.562,027 / 359Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Levante to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV
27.6%27.5%+0.1 pts0.27 / 0.280.734 / 647Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-TIE
24.3%27.5%−3.2 pts0.27 / 0.280.73348 / 63Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Deportivo La Coruna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP2
26.0%21.5%+4.5 pts0.20 / 0.230.80815 / 45Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Deportivo La Coruna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP3
11.3%8.5%+2.8 pts0.07 / 0.100.932,390 / 34Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV2
11.6%10.5%+1.1 pts0.09 / 0.120.911,572 / 63Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV3
3.8%4.0%−0.2 pts0.02 / 0.060.9825 / 25Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-1
94.6%93.0%+1.6 pts0.92 / 0.940.08744 / 754Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-2
79.9%74.5%+5.4 pts0.74 / 0.750.262 / 414Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-3
57.0%50.0%+7.0 pts0.49 / 0.510.511,918 / 456Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-4
34.6%28.0%+6.6 pts0.27 / 0.290.73919 / 1,717Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-5
17.9%13.0%+4.9 pts0.12 / 0.140.88727 / 722Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-6
8.1%4.5%+3.6 pts0.03 / 0.060.97737 / 100Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:13:49.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home44.8%44.3% – 45.4%47.5%2.101048.1%+3.4 pts
1x2:draw27.6%26.5% – 28.4%29.2%3.421024.3%−3.3 pts
1x2:away27.6%26.8% – 28.3%29.6%3.381027.6%−0.1 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:10 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.549.8%49.1% – 50.3%52.1%1.92857.0%+7.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.550.2%49.7% – 50.9%52.5%1.91843.0%−7.2 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:10 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.52 · home 2.1111/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.50 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.36 · draw 3.48 · home 2.1511/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
SBOMatch winneraway 3.21 · draw 3.20 · home 1.9811/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
William HillMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.30 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Match winneraway 3.40 · draw 3.40 · home 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.45 · draw 3.45 · home 2.1211/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.60 · draw 3.62 · home 2.1711/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.55 · draw 3.35 · home 2.1211/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.30 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.92 · under 2.5 1.9011/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.85 · under 2.5 1.8511/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.93 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.92 · under 2.5 1.9411/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.98 · under 2.5 1.9611/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.95 · under 2.5 1.8811/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.84 · under 2.5 1.8311/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:13:49.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:02 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Deportivo La Corunaok11/10/2026, 01:39:17 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Levanteok11/10/2026, 01:39:15 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home48.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away27.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x72.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x251.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes58.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no41.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.579.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.520.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.557.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.543.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.534.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.565.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.517.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.582.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.58.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.582.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.517.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.551.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.548.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.524.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.575.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.59.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.590.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.571.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.528.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.535.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.564.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.513.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.586.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.53.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.596.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.511.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.588.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.526.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.574.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.548.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.551.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.572.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.527.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.588.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.511.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.596.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.53.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home63.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away36.4%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 462 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:13:49