Got%OnIt
Matches
Serie A·Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT

TorinovUdinese

Torino
39%
Draw
27%
Udinese
34%

Got%OnIt gives Torino a 39% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Torino and 1.2 for Udinese.
  • Torino won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 a game.
  • Udinese won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Torino are 15th of 20 after 5 games; Udinese are 14th.
  • Torino have won 1 and lost 3; Udinese have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Torino

  • D1–1at Bologna19 Sept
  • L0–2v AS Roma14 Sept
  • W2–1at Fiorentina5 Sept
  • L1–2at Sassuolo29 Aug
  • L1–2v AC Milan23 Aug
  • D2–2v Juventus24 May

Udinese

  • L0–1v Cagliari19 Sept
  • L3–5at Inter14 Sept
  • L1–2v Lazio7 Sept
  • W3–2at Monza29 Aug
  • D1–1v Como22 Aug
  • L0–1at Napoli24 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT; snapshot 398, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-12T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDT1196 finished Serie A matches (1182 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Udinese)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Torino)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 19:32 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationTorino 23 d rest · Udinese 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:03 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Torino

23.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Parma +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 14 SeptSAH AS RomaL 0–2counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptSAA BolognaD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Mon 19 OctSAA Parma+7 d
  • Fri 23 OctSAH Monza+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 24 in the squad); 46 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 5 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 14.6 CONFIRMED

Torino: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
R. MandragoraM000' Italy, 14 d before
Lucas PerriG00—
D. BragancaM00—
E. ComertD000' Switzerland, 13 d before; 0' Switzerland, 9 d before; 0' Switzerland, 6 d before
A. IsmajliD9027090' Albania, 13 d before; 90' Albania, 9.2 d before; 90' Albania, 6 d before
N. FortiniM00—
A. CacciamaniM00—
G. Simeone · regularF00—
N. Vlasic · regularF711150' Croatia, 13 d before; 44' Croatia, 9.1 d before; 71' Croatia, 6 d before
S. Coco · regularD00—
K. Fitz-JimM00—

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 733 minutes — A. Ismajli (90' Albania, 13 d before; 90' Albania, 9.2 d before; 90' Albania, 6 d before); G. Gineitis (90' Lithuania, 8.2 d before); N. Vlasic (0' Croatia, 13 d before; 44' Croatia, 9.1 d before; 71' Croatia, 6 d before); R. Rodriguez (62' Switzerland, 13 d before; 67' Switzerland, 9 d before; 70' Switzerland, 6 d before); N. Patterson (59' Scotland, 13 d before; 0' Scotland, 9 d before; 0' Scotland, 6 d before) CONFIRMED

Udinese

23.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Lecce +5.7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 14 SeptSAA InterL 3–5counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptSAH CagliariL 0–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 18 OctSAH Lecce+5.7 d
  • Sun 25 OctSAH AC Milan+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Solet (D) — reason unknown; J. Piotrowski (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 4.9 CONFIRMED

Udinese: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
K. Davis · regularF00—
H. Kamara · regularM00—
L. MillerM000' Scotland, 13 d before; 0' Scotland, 9 d before; 0' Scotland, 6 d before
M. Vojvoda · regularM018090' Kosovo, 11 d before; 90' Kosovo, 8.1 d before
C. KabaseleD00—
J. Ekkelenkamp · regularF00—
J. AbankwahD07575' Rep. Of Ireland, 11 d before
M. Okoye · regularG00—
E. EbosseD00—
J. Karlstrom · regularM541451' Sweden, 14 d before; 90' Sweden, 10 d before; 54' Sweden, 7 d before
N. ZanioloF00—

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 636 minutes — M. Vojvoda (90' Kosovo, 11 d before; 90' Kosovo, 8.1 d before); S. Lovric (71' Slovenia, 13 d before; 64' Slovenia, 9 d before; 0' Slovenia, 6 d before); J. Abankwah (75' Rep. Of Ireland, 11 d before); J. Karlstrom (1' Sweden, 14 d before; 90' Sweden, 10 d before; 54' Sweden, 7 d before); G. Chakvetadze (76' Georgia, 10 d before; 25' Georgia, 7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Torino

  • C. Adams · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • C. Casadei · injury / absence: Rest · Questionable
  • F. Israel · injury / absence: Shoulder Injury · Missing Fixture
  • P. Pellegri · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture

Udinese

  • I. Gueye · injury / absence: Ankle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Arizala · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Questionable
  • J. Piotrowski · injury / absence: Heart Problems · Missing Fixture
  • M. Palma · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • N. Zaniolo · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Torino39%41%41%
Draw27%30%31%
Udinese34%30%28%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 24 h before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 31 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Udinese a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (34% vs 28%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Torino

  • Torino: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • D1–1at Bologna19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v AS Roma14 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Fiorentina5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Sassuolo29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2v AC Milan23 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Juventus24 May · in model evidence

Udinese

  • Udinese: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–1v Cagliari19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L3–5at Inter14 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Lazio7 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Monza29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Como22 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Napoli24 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

Total goals

0 goals8%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more4%
Over 1.572%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.525%
Both teams score51%

Torino

Expected goals1.32
Scores at least once73%
Scores 2 or more38%
Clean sheet30%

Udinese

Expected goals1.20
Scores at least once70%
Scores 2 or more34%
Clean sheet27%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability9 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

9 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 22 min ago.

Torino

  • C. AdamsDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • C. CasadeiDoubtfulRest
  • F. IsraelOutShoulder Injury
  • P. PellegriOutKnee Injury

Udinese

  • I. GueyeOutAnkle Injury
  • J. ArizalaDoubtfulThigh Injury
  • J. PiotrowskiOutHeart Problems
  • M. PalmaDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • N. ZanioloOutThigh Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season15th v 14th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Torino

15th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 8

Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games DLWLL (most recent last)

Udinese

14th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 11

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 2, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 6, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LLLWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 8 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Draw (90 minutes)
27%
31%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
27%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 21,051 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Torino to win (90 minutes)
39%
41%
YES on Torino to WinTorino wins in 90 minutes
39%41¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 47,623 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Udinese to win (90 minutes)
34%
28%
YES on Udinese to WinUdinese wins in 90 minutes
34%29¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 30,081 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawTorino or Udinese wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
73%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 23,155 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Udinese to WinTorino wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
66%72¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 12,904 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Torino to WinUdinese wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
61%60¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,209 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
92%
92%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
92%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 18,940 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
8%9¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
72%
71%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
72%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 251 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
28%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 15,485 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
46%
44%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
46%45¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 20,379 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
54%57¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 38,037 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
25%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
25%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,091 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
75%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 109 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,805 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
89%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 10,867 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
4%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 8,221 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
96%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 32,049 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
51%
52%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
51%52¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,477 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
49%49¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,586 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Winning margin
Torino to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsTorino wins by 2 goals or more
18%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 982 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Torino to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUdinese wins or the match is drawn, or Torino wins by 1 goal · Torino not by 2+ goals
82%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 15,971 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Torino to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsTorino wins by 3 goals or more
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,660 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Torino to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUdinese wins or the match is drawn, or Torino wins by 2 goals or fewer · Torino not by 3+ goals
94%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,268 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUdinese wins by 2 goals or more
14%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 892 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Udinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsTorino wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 1 goal · Udinese not by 2+ goals
86%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 15,275 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUdinese wins by 3 goals or more
5%4¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,938 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Udinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsTorino wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 2 goals or fewer · Udinese not by 3+ goals
95%97¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old
Team goals
Torino over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
73%
76%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino Over 0.5 GoalsTorino scores 1 goal or more
73%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8,957 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Torino Over 0.5 GoalsTorino does not score · Torino under 0.5 goals
27%25¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,001 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Torino over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
38%
38%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino Over 1.5 GoalsTorino scores 2 goals or more
38%39¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,000 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Torino Over 1.5 GoalsTorino scores 1 goal or fewer · Torino under 1.5 goals
62%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,381 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Torino over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
15%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino Over 2.5 GoalsTorino scores 3 goals or more
15%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 501 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Torino Over 2.5 GoalsTorino scores 2 goals or fewer · Torino under 2.5 goals
85%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,525 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Udinese over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
70%
69%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese Over 0.5 GoalsUdinese scores 1 goal or more
70%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,751 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Udinese Over 0.5 GoalsUdinese does not score · Udinese under 0.5 goals
30%32¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,004 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Udinese over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
34%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese Over 1.5 GoalsUdinese scores 2 goals or more
34%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,000 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Udinese Over 1.5 GoalsUdinese scores 1 goal or fewer · Udinese under 1.5 goals
66%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 368 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Udinese over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese Over 2.5 GoalsUdinese scores 3 goals or more
12%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 501 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Udinese Over 2.5 GoalsUdinese scores 2 goals or fewer · Udinese under 2.5 goals
88%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 39.5% · draw 26.8% · away 33.7%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.20
Torino eligible matches
119 (119 with xG)
Udinese eligible matches
119 (118 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1196 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:56
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 11:33:51
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
  • xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 5% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

TorinoOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptBolognaaway1–11.14–0.92D
14 SeptAS Romahome0–20.86–1.85L
5 SeptFiorentinaaway2–10.58–1.67W
29 AugSassuoloaway1–21.26–1.85L
23 AugAC Milanhome1–21.29–2.15L
24 MayJuventushome2–20.85–1.92D
UdineseOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptCagliarihome0–12.13–1.12L
14 SeptInteraway3–5—L
7 SeptLaziohome1–20.85–1.83L
29 AugMonzaaway3–20.98–1.70W
22 AugComohome1–12.14–1.50D
24 MayNapoliaway0–10.37–1.76L

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT12TORUDI-BTTS
51.3%51.5%−0.2 pts0.51 / 0.520.491,477 / 14,586Comparable
seen 31 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-TIE
26.8%30.5%−3.7 pts0.30 / 0.310.7021,051 / 23,155Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Torino to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR
39.5%40.5%−1.0 pts0.40 / 0.410.6047,623 / 1,209Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI
33.7%28.5%+5.2 pts0.28 / 0.290.7230,081 / 12,904Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Torino to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR2
17.9%17.5%+0.4 pts0.17 / 0.180.83982 / 15,971Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Torino to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR3
6.4%6.5%−0.1 pts0.06 / 0.070.944,660 / 1,268Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI2
14.1%10.5%+3.6 pts0.10 / 0.110.90892 / 15,275Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI3
4.6%3.5%+1.1 pts0.03 / 0.040.972,938 / 1Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Torino over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR1
73.4%76.0%−2.6 pts0.75 / 0.770.258,957 / 1,001Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Torino over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR2
38.1%38.0%+0.1 pts0.37 / 0.390.631,000 / 2,381Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Torino over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR3
14.8%14.5%+0.3 pts0.13 / 0.160.87501 / 2,525Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI1
69.9%69.0%+0.9 pts0.68 / 0.700.323,751 / 1,004Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI2
33.8%29.5%+4.3 pts0.29 / 0.300.711,000 / 368Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI3
12.1%10.0%+2.1 pts0.09 / 0.110.91501 / 25Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-1
92.0%91.5%+0.5 pts0.91 / 0.920.0918,940 / 2Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-2
71.8%70.5%+1.3 pts0.70 / 0.710.30251 / 15,485Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-3
46.2%44.0%+2.2 pts0.43 / 0.450.5720,379 / 38,037Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-4
24.8%23.5%+1.3 pts0.23 / 0.240.774,091 / 109Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-5
11.2%10.0%+1.2 pts0.09 / 0.110.915,805 / 10,867Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-6
4.4%4.0%+0.4 pts0.03 / 0.050.978,221 / 32,049Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:03:26.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home40.7%37.5% – 41.3%42.6%2.351039.5%−1.2 pts
1x2:draw29.8%28.6% – 30.8%31.0%3.231026.8%−3.0 pts
1x2:away29.6%29.1% – 32.3%31.0%3.231033.7%+4.2 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:22.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.545.0%44.1% – 46.1%46.7%2.14846.2%+1.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.555.0%53.9% – 55.9%57.8%1.73853.8%−1.2 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:22.

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.30 · home 2.3511/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.10 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.33 · draw 3.26 · home 2.3511/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.74 · draw 2.92 · home 2.3611/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
William HillMatch winneraway 3.10 · draw 3.10 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Match winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.10 · home 2.3511/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.20 · home 2.4111/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.35 · draw 3.35 · home 2.3911/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.25 · home 2.3211/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.10 · draw 3.30 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.15 · under 2.5 1.7211/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.7311/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.15 · under 2.5 1.7611/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.13 · under 2.5 1.7411/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.7311/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.22 · under 2.5 1.7711/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.18 · under 2.5 1.7211/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.99 · under 2.5 1.7011/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:03:26.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:51 (Last checked 22 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Torinook11/10/2026, 11:37:13 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Udineseok11/10/2026, 11:37:11 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home39.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw26.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away33.7%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x66.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x260.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1273.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes51.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no48.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.592.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.58.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.571.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.528.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.546.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.553.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.524.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.575.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.511.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.588.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.573.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.526.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.538.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.561.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.514.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.585.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.569.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.530.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.533.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.566.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.512.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.587.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.53.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.596.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.56.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.593.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.517.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.582.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.539.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.560.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.566.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.533.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.585.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.514.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home53.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away46.1%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 398 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:03:26