Serie A·Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT

AS RomavGenoa

AS Roma

61%

Draw

23%

Genoa

16%

Got%OnIt gives AS Roma a 61% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for AS Roma and 0.8 for Genoa.
AS Roma won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 a game.
Genoa won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

AS Roma are 3rd of 20 after 6 games; Genoa are 17th.
AS Roma have won 4 and lost 0; Genoa have won 1 and lost 4.

Recent matches the model used

AS Roma

D0–0at Como11 Oct
D2–2v Inter19 Sept
W2–0at Torino14 Sept
W2–1v Atalanta5 Sept
W4–0at Lecce31 Aug
W4–0v Fiorentina24 Aug

Genoa

W2–1v Fiorentina10 Oct
L1–2at Parma20 Sept
D1–1v Frosinone12 Sept
L1–4v Como4 Sept
L0–1at Lazio30 Aug
L0–2v Napoli22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT; snapshot 414, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDT1196 finished Serie A matches (1182 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Genoa)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (AS Roma)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 19:32 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationAS Roma 3.0 d rest (short) · Genoa 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

AS Roma

3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Slovan Bratislava +3 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3 d before (H Real Madrid); UEFA Champions League +3 d after (H Slovan Bratislava) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptSAH InterD 2–2counted as workload
Sun 11 OctSAA ComoD 0–0counted as workload
Wed 14 OctUCLH Real MadridNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Tue 20 OctUCLH Slovan Bratislava+3 d
Sat 24 OctSAA Napoli+6.9 d
Tue 27 OctSAH Cagliari+10 d
Sat 31 OctSAA Udinese+13.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 54 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: B. Cristante (M) — reason unknown; M. Svilar (G) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.3 CONFIRMED

AS Roma: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
E. Ndicka · regular	D	90	90	—
Wesley · regular	M	90	90	—
P. Gollini	G	90	90	—
N. Molina	M	82	82	—
M. de Roon	M	90	90	—
M. Koné · regular	M	89	150	61' France, 12 d before
Hermoso · regular	D	60	60	—
G. Mancini · regular	D	90	180	90' Italy, 12 d before
P. Dybala · regular	M	89	89	—
L. Pellegrini	M	45	45	—
D. Malen · regular	F	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 151 minutes — M. Koné (61' France, 12 d before); G. Mancini (90' Italy, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

Genoa

7.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Venezia +7.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptSAA ParmaL 1–2counted as workload
Sat 10 OctSAH FiorentinaW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 25 OctSAH Venezia+7.8 d
Wed 28 OctSAH Juventus+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 46 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: L. Colombo (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Genoa: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
J. Bijlow · regular	G	90	—
S. Otoa	D	66	—
K. Ehizibue	M	81	—
M. Frendrup · regular	M	90	—
H. Traorè	M	90	—
Junior Messias	M	57	—
M. Osmajić	F	178	88' Montenegro, 12 d before
L. Østigård · regular	D	180	90' Norway, 13 d before
J. Vásquez · regular	D	90	—
M. Ellertsson · regular	M	81	—
S. El Shaarawy	M	57	—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 249 minutes — M. Osmajić (88' Montenegro, 12 d before); M. Mitaj (71' Albania, 11 d before); L. Østigård (90' Norway, 13 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

AS Roma

M. Bah · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture

Genoa

L. Venturino · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
AS Roma	61%	70%	71%
Draw	23%	19%	19%
Genoa	16%	11%	11%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives AS Roma a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (61% vs 71%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

AS Roma

AS Roma: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.5 and conceded 0.5 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 70%.
Both teams scored in 30%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 60%.

D0–0at Como11 Oct · in model evidence
D2–2v Inter19 Sept · in model evidence
W2–0at Torino14 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1v Atalanta5 Sept · in model evidence
W4–0at Lecce31 Aug · in model evidence
W4–0v Fiorentina24 Aug · in model evidence

Genoa

Genoa: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 0.6 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 40%.

W2–1v Fiorentina10 Oct · in model evidence
L1–2at Parma20 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1v Frosinone12 Sept · in model evidence
L1–4v Como4 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1at Lazio30 Aug · in model evidence
L0–2v Napoli22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	8%
1 goal	20%
2 goals	26%
3 goals	21%
4 goals	13%
5 goals	7%
6 or more	4%
Over 1.5	71%
Over 2.5	46%
Over 3.5	24%
Both teams score	44%

AS Roma

Expected goals	1.75
Scores at least once	83%
Scores 2 or more	52%
Clean sheet	47%

Genoa

Expected goals	0.76
Scores at least once	53%
Scores 2 or more	18%
Clean sheet	17%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability2 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

2 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 22 min ago.

AS Roma

M. BahOutJumpers Knee

Genoa

L. VenturinoOutJumpers Knee

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season3rd v 17th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

AS Roma

3rd of 20 · 14 pts · W4 D2 L0 from 6 games · scored 14, conceded 3

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 8, conceded 3) · Away W2 D1 L0 (scored 6, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 4 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games DDWWW (most recent last)

Genoa

17th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L4 from 6 games · scored 5, conceded 11

Home W1 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 8) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games WLDLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 8 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Genoa to win (90 minutes)

16%

11%

YES on Genoa to WinGenoa wins in 90 minutes

16%11¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

AS Roma to win (90 minutes)

61%

71%

YES on AS Roma to WinAS Roma wins in 90 minutes

61%72¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 9,354 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

23%

19%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

23%19¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,503 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawAS Roma or Genoa wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

77%82¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 807 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Genoa to WinAS Roma wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

84%90¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,123 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on AS Roma to WinGenoa wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

39%30¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,037 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

92%

95%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

92%96¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 688 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

8%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,071 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

71%

80%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

71%81¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 888 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

29%22¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,218 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

46%

56%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

46%58¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 888 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

54%45¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,218 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

24%

34%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

24%35¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,188 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

76%68¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 718 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

11%

17%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

11%18¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

89%85¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 718 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

4%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

96%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,438 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

44%

48%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

44%49¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 689 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

56%53¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 989 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Winning margin

Genoa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Genoa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsGenoa wins by 2 goals or more

5%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,031 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Genoa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAS Roma wins or the match is drawn, or Genoa wins by 1 goal · Genoa not by 2+ goals

95%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Genoa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Limited evidence · No Kalshi quote

YES on Genoa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsGenoa wins by 3 goals or more

1%5¢

No two-sided Kalshi quote, so no comparison · 21 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Genoa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAS Roma wins or the match is drawn, or Genoa wins by 2 goals or fewer · Genoa not by 3+ goals

99%—

Kalshi NO price unavailable

AS Roma to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

35%

48%

Limited evidence

YES on AS Roma to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAS Roma wins by 2 goals or more

35%48¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,362 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on AS Roma to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsGenoa wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 1 goal · AS Roma not by 2+ goals

65%53¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old

AS Roma to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

16%

24%

Limited evidence

YES on AS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAS Roma wins by 3 goals or more

16%25¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on AS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsGenoa wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 2 goals or fewer · AS Roma not by 3+ goals

84%77¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 688 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 60.9% · draw 23.2% · away 16.0%
Expected goals: 1.75 – 0.76
AS Roma eligible matches: 120 (118 with xG)
Genoa eligible matches: 120 (119 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1196 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:56
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 11:33:51
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's away probability is 5% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's home probability is 10% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

AS Roma	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Como	away	0–0	1.12–1.49	D
19 Sept	Inter	home	2–2	—	D
14 Sept	Torino	away	2–0	1.85–0.86	W
5 Sept	Atalanta	home	2–1	—	W
31 Aug	Lecce	away	4–0	3.27–0.80	W
24 Aug	Fiorentina	home	4–0	3.07–0.35	W

Genoa	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Fiorentina	home	2–1	1.41–0.99	W
20 Sept	Parma	away	1–2	0.70–0.53	L
12 Sept	Frosinone	home	1–1	1.88–1.93	D
4 Sept	Como	home	1–4	0.78–1.78	L
30 Aug	Lazio	away	0–1	0.42–1.62	L
22 Aug	Napoli	home	0–2	—	L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17ROMGEN-BTTS	44.1%	48.0%	−3.9 pts	0.47 / 0.49	0.53	689 / 989	Comparable seen 32 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Genoa to win (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN	16.0%	10.5%	+5.5 pts	0.10 / 0.11	0.90	2,500 / 1,123	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
AS Roma to win (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM	60.9%	71.0%	−10.1 pts	0.70 / 0.72	0.30	9,354 / 3,037	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-TIE	23.2%	18.5%	+4.7 pts	0.18 / 0.19	0.82	4,503 / 807	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Genoa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN2	4.6%	4.0%	+0.6 pts	0.02 / 0.06	0.98	1,031 / 25	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Genoa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN3	1.0%	—	—	— / 0.05	—	21 / 0	No two-sided Kalshi quote seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
AS Roma to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM2	34.9%	47.5%	−12.6 pts	0.47 / 0.48	0.53	3,362 / 0	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
AS Roma to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM3	15.9%	24.0%	−8.1 pts	0.23 / 0.25	0.77	500 / 688	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-1	91.9%	94.5%	−2.6 pts	0.93 / 0.96	0.07	688 / 2,071	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-2	71.5%	79.5%	−8.0 pts	0.78 / 0.81	0.22	888 / 1,218	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-3	45.9%	56.5%	−10.6 pts	0.55 / 0.58	0.45	888 / 1,218	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-4	24.4%	33.5%	−9.1 pts	0.32 / 0.35	0.68	1,188 / 718	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-5	11.0%	16.5%	−5.5 pts	0.15 / 0.18	0.85	500 / 718	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-6	4.3%	7.0%	−2.7 pts	0.06 / 0.08	0.94	500 / 1,438	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:04:11.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	69.8%	67.7% – 71.7%	74.4%	1.34	10	60.9%	−8.9 pts
1x2:draw	19.1%	18.1% – 20.7%	20.4%	4.90	10	23.2%	+4.0 pts
1x2:away	10.9%	10.1% – 13.0%	11.8%	8.50	10	16.0%	+5.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:26.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	57.3%	56.3% – 57.9%	59.9%	1.67	7	45.9%	−11.5 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	42.7%	42.1% – 43.7%	45.5%	2.20	7	54.1%	+11.5 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:26.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 9.30 · draw 5.20 · home 1.34	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betfair	Match winner	away 8.50 · draw 4.60 · home 1.33	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 8.03 · draw 5.22 · home 1.35	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBO	Match winner	away 6.86 · draw 4.64 · home 1.32	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
William Hill	Match winner	away 8.50 · draw 4.80 · home 1.33	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365	Match winner	away 8.50 · draw 4.50 · home 1.36	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Dafabet	Match winner	away 8.40 · draw 5.20 · home 1.35	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBet	Match winner	away 9.70 · draw 5.42 · home 1.37	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betano	Match winner	away 8.25 · draw 5.00 · home 1.37	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictor	Match winner	away 8.50 · draw 4.80 · home 1.33	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.15	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.22	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.72 · under 2.5 2.31	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.25	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.63 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:04:11.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	ok	11/10/2026, 19:42:10 (Last checked 22 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · AS Roma	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:12 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Genoa	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:12 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	60.9%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	23.2%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	16.0%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	84.0%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	39.1%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	76.8%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	44.1%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	55.9%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	91.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	8.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	71.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	28.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	45.9%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	54.1%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	24.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	75.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	11.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	89.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	4.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	95.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	82.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	17.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	52.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	47.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	25.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	74.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	10.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	90.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	53.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	46.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	17.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	82.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	4.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	95.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	0.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	99.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	15.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	84.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	34.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	65.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	60.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	39.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	84.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	16.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	95.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	4.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	99.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	1.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	79.2%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	20.8%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 414 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:04:11