Got%OnIt
Matches
Serie A·Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT

FiorentinavComo

Fiorentina
29%
Draw
26%
Como
46%

Got%OnIt gives Como a 46% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Como.
  • Fiorentina won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.3 a game.
  • Como won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Fiorentina are 19th of 20 after 6 games; Como are 6th.
  • Fiorentina have won 1 and lost 4; Como have won 3 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Fiorentina

  • L1–2at Genoa10 Oct
  • D1–1v Napoli20 Sept
  • W4–2at Venezia11 Sept
  • L1–2v Torino5 Sept
  • L0–3v Frosinone29 Aug
  • L0–4at AS Roma24 Aug

Como

  • D0–0v AS Roma11 Oct
  • L0–2at Frosinone20 Sept
  • W2–1v Parma14 Sept
  • W4–1at Genoa4 Sept
  • W2–1at Napoli30 Aug
  • D1–1at Udinese22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT; snapshot 420, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDT1196 finished Serie A matches (1182 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Fiorentina)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Como)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 19:32 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationFiorentina 8 d rest · Como 3.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:03 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Fiorentina

8 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Inter +6.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAH NapoliD 1–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctSAA GenoaL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctSAA Inter+6.9 d
  • Thu 29 OctSAH Atalanta+11.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 57 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Fiorentina: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
BetoF065—
N. Fagioli · regularM0900' Italy, 12.8 d before
C. Ndour · regularM090—
ValdeD090—
L. Ranieri · regularD045—
Álex JiménezD080—
C. Inao OulaïM045—
Franco Mastantuono · regularM090—
R. Drăgușin · regularD090—
W. GnontoM081—
David de Gea · regularG090—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Como

3.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Manchester United +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.8 d before (A Feyenoord); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H Manchester United) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAA FrosinoneL 0–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAH AS RomaD 0–0counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLA FeyenoordNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Manchester United+3.2 d
  • Sat 24 OctSAH Sassuolo+6 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAA Torino+9.3 d
  • Sun 1 NovSAH Venezia+13.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 26 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Como: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. Paz · regularM090—
M. CaqueretM066—
M. Perrone · regularM088—
Jacobo Ramón Naveros · regularD090—
T. ChalobahD0900' England, 11.8 d before
Yan Couto · regularD088—
T. Douvikas · regularF0900' Greece, 13.8 d before
KaikiD090—
L. da Cunha · regularM010729' France, 12.8 d before
J. Butez · regularG0900' France, 12.8 d before
Assane Diao · regularM088—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 48 minutes — M. Baturina (19' Croatia, 11.8 d before); L. da Cunha (29' France, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Fiorentina

  • R. Sottil · injury / absence: Back Injury · Missing Fixture

Como

None reported for this team.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Fiorentina29%28%26%
Draw26%26%25%
Como46%46%48%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 31 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Fiorentina

  • Fiorentina: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • L1–2at Genoa10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Napoli20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–2at Venezia11 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Torino5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–3v Frosinone29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–4at AS Roma24 Aug · in model evidence

Como

  • Como: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 0.7 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • D0–0v AS Roma11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Frosinone20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Parma14 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1at Genoa4 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Napoli30 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Udinese22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal19%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals8%
6 or more5%
Over 1.574%
Over 2.549%
Over 3.527%
Both teams score53%

Fiorentina

Expected goals1.14
Scores at least once68%
Scores 2 or more32%
Clean sheet22%

Como

Expected goals1.50
Scores at least once78%
Scores 2 or more44%
Clean sheet32%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability1 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

1 player reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 21 min ago.

Fiorentina

  • R. SottilOutBack Injury

Como

Nobody listed for this team.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season19th v 6th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Fiorentina

19th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L4 from 6 games · scored 7, conceded 14

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 2, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 5, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games LDWLL (most recent last)

Como

6th of 20 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L1 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 6

Home W1 D1 L0 (scored 2, conceded 1) · Away W2 D1 L1 (scored 7, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games DLWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 8 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Como to win (90 minutes)
46%
48%
YES on Como to WinComo wins in 90 minutes
46%49¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,421 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Fiorentina to win (90 minutes)
29%
26%
YES on Fiorentina to WinFiorentina wins in 90 minutes
29%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,751 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
26%
25%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
26%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,405 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawFiorentina or Como wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
74%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,433 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Como to WinFiorentina wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
54%53¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,112 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Fiorentina to WinComo wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
71%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,481 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
93%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
93%95¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
7%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 658 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
74%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
74%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,737 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
26%21¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 658 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
49%
57%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
49%59¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,158 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
51%44¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 691 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
35%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
27%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
73%67¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,287 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
13%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,192 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
87%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 692 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
5%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,158 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
95%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,194 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
53%
60%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
53%61¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 658 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
47%42¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 658 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Winning margin
Como to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
23%
25%
Limited evidence
YES on Como to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsComo wins by 2 goals or more
23%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Como to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFiorentina wins or the match is drawn, or Como wins by 1 goal · Como not by 2+ goals
77%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 987 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Como to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Como to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsComo wins by 3 goals or more
9%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Como to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFiorentina wins or the match is drawn, or Como wins by 2 goals or fewer · Como not by 3+ goals
91%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,145 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Fiorentina to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Fiorentina to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFiorentina wins by 2 goals or more
11%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,191 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Fiorentina to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsComo wins or the match is drawn, or Fiorentina wins by 1 goal · Fiorentina not by 2+ goals
89%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,247 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Fiorentina to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Fiorentina to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFiorentina wins by 3 goals or more
4%7¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 17 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Fiorentina to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsComo wins or the match is drawn, or Fiorentina wins by 2 goals or fewer · Fiorentina not by 3+ goals
96%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,887 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 28.9% · draw 25.6% · away 45.5%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.50
Fiorentina eligible matches
120 (118 with xG)
Como eligible matches
82 (81 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1196 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:56
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 11:33:51
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
  • xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

FiorentinaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctGenoaaway1–20.99–1.41L
20 SeptNapolihome1–1—D
11 SeptVeneziaaway4–23.31–0.49W
5 SeptTorinohome1–21.67–0.58L
29 AugFrosinonehome0–32.13–1.11L
24 AugAS Romaaway0–40.35–3.07L
ComoOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctAS Romahome0–01.49–1.12D
20 SeptFrosinoneaway0–22.12–2.18L
14 SeptParmahome2–12.98–1.15W
4 SeptGenoaaway4–11.78–0.78W
30 AugNapoliaway2–1—W
22 AugUdineseaway1–11.50–2.14D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18FIOCOM-BTTS
53.0%59.5%−6.5 pts0.58 / 0.610.42658 / 658Comparable
seen 32 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Como to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM
45.5%48.0%−2.5 pts0.47 / 0.490.531,421 / 1,112Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Fiorentina to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO
28.9%26.0%+2.9 pts0.25 / 0.270.752,751 / 1,481Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-TIE
25.6%25.0%+0.6 pts0.24 / 0.260.763,405 / 1,433Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Como to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM2
22.7%25.0%−2.3 pts0.24 / 0.260.76500 / 987Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Como to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM3
9.0%10.5%−1.5 pts0.09 / 0.120.91500 / 1,145Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Fiorentina to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO2
11.5%10.5%+1.0 pts0.09 / 0.120.911,191 / 1,247Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Fiorentina to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO3
3.6%4.5%−0.9 pts0.02 / 0.070.9817 / 1,887Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-1
92.9%94.5%−1.6 pts0.94 / 0.950.062 / 658Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-2
74.2%80.5%−6.3 pts0.79 / 0.820.211,737 / 658Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-3
49.3%57.5%−8.2 pts0.56 / 0.590.441,158 / 691Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-4
27.4%34.5%−7.1 pts0.33 / 0.360.67500 / 1,287Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-5
12.9%18.0%−5.1 pts0.17 / 0.190.831,192 / 692Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-6
5.3%7.5%−2.2 pts0.06 / 0.090.941,158 / 1,194Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:03:42.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home27.8%26.6% – 29.1%29.1%3.441028.9%+1.0 pts
1x2:draw26.0%24.6% – 27.5%27.2%3.671025.6%−0.4 pts
1x2:away46.2%43.9% – 48.0%48.8%2.051045.5%−0.7 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:28.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.557.1%56.6% – 57.9%59.9%1.67749.3%−7.7 pts
total_goals:under:2.542.9%42.1% – 43.4%45.0%2.22750.7%+7.7 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:28.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.07 · draw 3.70 · home 3.4211/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.00 · draw 3.80 · home 3.2511/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.98 · draw 3.75 · home 3.5711/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.02 · draw 3.28 · home 3.0411/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.05 · draw 3.50 · home 3.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.05 · draw 3.40 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.07 · draw 3.60 · home 3.4511/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.13 · draw 3.81 · home 3.5211/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.07 · draw 3.65 · home 3.4511/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.95 · draw 3.70 · home 3.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2211/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.66 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.2911/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.1111/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:03:42.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:42:12 (Last checked 21 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Fiorentinaok11/10/2026, 11:37:13 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Comook11/10/2026, 11:37:15 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home28.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw25.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away45.5%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x54.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x271.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1274.4%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes53.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no47.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.592.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.57.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.574.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.525.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.549.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.550.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.527.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.572.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.512.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.587.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.55.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.594.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.568.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.531.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.531.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.568.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.510.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.589.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.52.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.597.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.577.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.522.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.544.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.555.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.519.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.580.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.56.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.593.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.53.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.596.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.511.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.588.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.528.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.571.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.554.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.545.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.577.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.522.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.591.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.59.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home38.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away61.2%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 420 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:03:42