Got%OnIt
Matches
Serie A·Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT

FrosinonevSassuolo

Frosinone
42%
Draw
23%
Sassuolo
35%

Got%OnIt gives Frosinone a 42% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: Frosinone has little or no Serie A history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Frosinone and 1.5 for Sassuolo.
  • Frosinone won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • Sassuolo won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • Frosinone has little or no Serie A history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Frosinone are 9th of 20 after 6 games; Sassuolo are 10th.
  • Frosinone have won 3 and lost 2; Sassuolo have won 2 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Frosinone

  • L0–3at Napoli10 Oct
  • W2–0v Como20 Sept
  • D1–1at Genoa12 Sept
  • W3–2v Venezia6 Sept
  • W3–0at Fiorentina29 Aug
  • L0–1v Juventus23 Aug

Sassuolo

  • D1–1v AC Milan11 Oct
  • L1–2at Monza18 Sept
  • W3–2v Juventus13 Sept
  • D2–2at Bologna6 Sept
  • W2–1v Torino29 Aug
  • L1–2at Atalanta23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 539, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-16T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Sassuolo)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Frosinone)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:38 PDT1198 finished Serie A matches (1184 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationFrosinone 6 d rest · Sassuolo 5 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Frosinone

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Atalanta +8.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAH ComoW 2–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctSAA NapoliL 0–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctSAA Atalanta+8.8 d
  • Thu 29 OctSAH Lecce+12.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 24 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79.1 CONFIRMED

Frosinone: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
G. Calò · regularM9090—
A. OyonoD9090—
R. Schmid · regularM8314562' Austria, 12.1 d before
A. Raimondo · regularF6363—
G. Bracaglia · regularD7676—
G. Kvernadze · regularM9011727' Georgia, 14 d before; 0' Georgia, 11 d before
F. GhedjemisM6363—
P. MasiniM4545—
L. Palmisani · regularG9090—
G. Calvani · regularD9090—
G. CittadiniD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 161 minutes — A. Terzić (72' Serbia, 12 d before); R. Schmid (62' Austria, 12.1 d before); G. Kvernadze (27' Georgia, 14 d before; 0' Georgia, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Sassuolo

5.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Como +7.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptSAA MonzaL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAH AC MilanD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctSAA Como+7.8 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAH Lazio+10.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 26 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 76.7 CONFIRMED

Sassuolo: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. Murić · regularG90900' Kosovo, 12.1 d before
F. LeysenD2626—
N. Matić · regularM7979—
A. Laurienté · regularF9090—
S. EspositoF6014080' Italy, 14 d before; 0' Italy, 11 d before
D. BerardiF9090—
D. BakolaM9090—
Vasilije AdžićM6015090' Montenegro, 11 d before
J. Doig · regularD90900' Scotland, 13 d before; 0' Scotland, 10 d before
D. Ćaleta-CarD9090—
I. Van der BremptD7979—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 269 minutes — K. Bowie (75' Scotland, 13 d before; 24' Scotland, 10 d before); S. Esposito (80' Italy, 14 d before; 0' Italy, 11 d before); Vasilije Adžić (90' Montenegro, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 1 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Frosinone

None reported for this team.

Sassuolo

  • D. Boloca · injury / absence: Muscle Bruise · Missing Fixture
  • E. Pieragnolo · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture
  • Fali Candé · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture
  • I. Koné · injury / absence: Broken Leg · Missing Fixture
  • Y. Paz · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Frosinone42%39%38%
Draw23%27%27%
Sassuolo35%34%35%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 5 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 28 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Frosinone

  • Frosinone: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 20%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–3at Napoli10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Como20 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Genoa12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Venezia6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–0at Fiorentina29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Juventus23 Aug · in model evidence

Sassuolo

  • Sassuolo: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • D1–1v AC Milan11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Monza18 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Juventus13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Bologna6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Torino29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Atalanta23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal13%
2 goals21%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals11%
6 or more10%
Over 1.582%
Over 2.561%
Over 3.539%
Both teams score63%

Frosinone

Expected goals1.67
Scores at least once81%
Scores 2 or more50%
Clean sheet22%

Sassuolo

Expected goals1.49
Scores at least once78%
Scores 2 or more44%
Clean sheet19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability5 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

5 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 1 h ago.

Frosinone

Nobody listed for this team.

Sassuolo

  • D. BolocaOutMuscle Bruise
  • E. PieragnoloOutJumpers Knee
  • Fali CandéOutJumpers Knee
  • I. KonéOutBroken Leg
  • Y. PazOutJumpers Knee

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season9th v 10th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Frosinone

9th of 20 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L2 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 7

Home W2 D0 L1 (scored 5, conceded 3) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games LWDWW (most recent last)

Sassuolo

10th of 20 · 7 pts · W2 D1 L2 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 9

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 3) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games DLWDW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 9 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Frosinone to win (90 minutes)
42%
38%
YES on Frosinone to WinFrosinone wins in 90 minutes
42%39¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,699 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sassuolo to win (90 minutes)
35%
35%
YES on Sassuolo to WinSassuolo wins in 90 minutes
35%36¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,774 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
23%
27%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
23%28¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 12,347 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawFrosinone or Sassuolo wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
77%74¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 940 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Sassuolo to WinFrosinone wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
65%66¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,288 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Frosinone to WinSassuolo wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
58%63¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,326 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,388 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%6¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 8 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
84%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
82%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 703 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
18%17¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
61%
63%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
61%64¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 262 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
39%38¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,415 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
39%
41%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
39%41¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
61%60¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,722 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
21%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
21%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,203 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
79%77¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
10%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,256 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
90%89¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 28 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
63%
64%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
63%64¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
37%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 8,578 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Winning margin
Frosinone to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Frosinone to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFrosinone wins by 2 goals or more
22%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,303 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Frosinone to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSassuolo wins or the match is drawn, or Frosinone wins by 1 goal · Frosinone not by 2+ goals
78%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,330 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Frosinone to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Frosinone to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFrosinone wins by 3 goals or more
9%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,203 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Frosinone to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSassuolo wins or the match is drawn, or Frosinone wins by 2 goals or fewer · Frosinone not by 3+ goals
91%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,554 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Sassuolo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Sassuolo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSassuolo wins by 2 goals or more
16%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Sassuolo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFrosinone wins or the match is drawn, or Sassuolo wins by 1 goal · Sassuolo not by 2+ goals
84%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,104 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Sassuolo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Sassuolo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSassuolo wins by 3 goals or more
6%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,292 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Sassuolo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFrosinone wins or the match is drawn, or Sassuolo wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sassuolo not by 3+ goals
94%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 703 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 42.0% · draw 23.5% · away 34.5%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.49
Frosinone eligible matches
44 (43 with xG)
Sassuolo eligible matches
82 (82 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1198 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:58
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
  • xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

FrosinoneOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctNapoliaway0–31.03–3.17L
20 SeptComohome2–02.18–2.12W
12 SeptGenoaaway1–11.93–1.88D
6 SeptVeneziahome3–2—W
29 AugFiorentinaaway3–01.11–2.13W
23 AugJuventushome0–10.41–2.18L
SassuoloOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctAC Milanhome1–11.28–1.23D
18 SeptMonzaaway1–21.47–1.51L
13 SeptJuventushome3–21.02–1.10W
6 SeptBolognaaway2–21.62–1.88D
29 AugTorinohome2–11.85–1.26W
23 AugAtalantaaway1–22.70–0.88L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT16FROSAS-BTTS
62.9%63.5%−0.6 pts0.63 / 0.640.370 / 8,578Comparable
seen 28 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Frosinone to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO
42.0%38.0%+4.0 pts0.37 / 0.390.634,699 / 2,326Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Sassuolo to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS
34.5%35.0%−0.5 pts0.34 / 0.360.662,774 / 4,288Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-TIE
23.5%27.0%−3.5 pts0.26 / 0.280.7412,347 / 940Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Frosinone to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO2
21.6%18.5%+3.1 pts0.17 / 0.200.831,303 / 1,330Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Frosinone to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO3
9.0%7.5%+1.5 pts0.06 / 0.090.941,203 / 1,554Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sassuolo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS2
16.3%16.5%−0.2 pts0.15 / 0.180.85500 / 1,104Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sassuolo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS3
6.2%7.0%−0.8 pts0.06 / 0.080.941,292 / 703Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-1
95.8%95.5%+0.3 pts0.94 / 0.970.061,388 / 8Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-2
82.4%84.0%−1.6 pts0.83 / 0.850.17703 / 0Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-3
61.2%63.0%−1.8 pts0.62 / 0.640.38262 / 1,415Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-4
38.9%40.5%−1.6 pts0.40 / 0.410.6025 / 1,722Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-5
21.3%23.5%−2.2 pts0.23 / 0.240.771,203 / 0Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-6
10.1%11.5%−1.4 pts0.11 / 0.120.892,256 / 0Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:06:04.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home39.0%38.7% – 40.4%41.6%2.401042.0%+3.0 pts
1x2:draw26.9%25.1% – 27.9%28.6%3.501023.5%−3.4 pts
1x2:away33.7%33.1% – 35.0%36.0%2.771034.5%+0.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:23.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.561.1%60.7% – 63.3%65.4%1.53761.2%+0.1 pts
total_goals:under:2.538.9%36.7% – 39.3%41.3%2.42738.8%−0.1 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:23.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.88 · draw 3.44 · home 2.4611/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.80 · draw 3.50 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.81 · draw 3.49 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.53 · draw 3.39 · home 2.2811/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.75 · draw 3.30 · home 2.3811/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.60 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.75 · draw 3.65 · home 2.4111/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.96 · draw 3.54 · home 2.5311/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.85 · draw 3.45 · home 2.4211/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.70 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.4211/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.5911/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.4211/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.4711/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.3611/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:06:04.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:42:02 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 9 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Frosinoneok11/10/2026, 11:37:14 (Last checked 9 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Sassuolook11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 9 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home42.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw23.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away34.5%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x65.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x258.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1276.5%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes62.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no37.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.582.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.517.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.561.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.538.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.538.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.561.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.521.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.578.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.510.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.589.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.581.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.518.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.549.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.550.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.523.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.576.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.58.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.591.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.577.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.522.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.544.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.556.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.519.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.581.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.56.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.593.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.59.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.591.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.521.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.578.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.542.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.558.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.565.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.534.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.583.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.516.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.593.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.56.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home54.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away45.1%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 539 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:06:04