Got%OnIt
Matches
Serie A·Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT

JuventusvLazio

Juventus
52%
Draw
26%
Lazio
21%

Got%OnIt gives Juventus a 52% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Juventus and 0.8 for Lazio.
  • Juventus won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 a game.
  • Lazio won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Juventus are 8th of 20 after 5 games; Lazio are 2nd.
  • Juventus have won 3 and lost 1; Lazio have won 5 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Juventus

  • W2–0v Atalanta20 Sept
  • L2–3at Sassuolo13 Sept
  • D1–1v AC Milan6 Sept
  • W2–0v Parma29 Aug
  • W1–0at Frosinone23 Aug
  • D2–2at Torino24 May

Lazio

  • W3–1v Monza11 Oct
  • W2–0at Venezia19 Sept
  • D2–2v AC Milan12 Sept
  • W2–1at Udinese7 Sept
  • W1–0v Genoa30 Aug
  • W1–0at Bologna24 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT; snapshot 432, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDT1196 finished Serie A matches (1182 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lazio)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Juventus)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 19:32 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationJuventus 3.0 d rest (short) · Lazio 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:03 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Juventus

3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League H Rennes +3.9 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −3 d before (A Celta Vigo); UEFA Europa League +3.9 d after (H Rennes) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAH AtalantaW 2–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAA CagliariD 1–1counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELA Celta VigoNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELH Rennes+3.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctSAA Lecce+6.9 d
  • Wed 28 OctSAA Genoa+10 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 54 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Locatelli (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 76.2 CONFIRMED

Juventus: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
W. McKennie · regularM4545—
Douglas Luiz · regularM8484—
N. GonzálezM6060—
Francisco Conceição · regularM4513590' Portugal, 14 d before
P. SarrM9090—
Z. Çelik · regularD6415490' Türkiye, 13 d before
J. LucumíD9090—
Bremer · regularD9090—
P. Kalulu · regularD90900' France, 13 d before
G. VicarioG90900' Italy, 13 d before
R. Kolo MuaniF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 296 minutes — Francisco Conceição (90' Portugal, 14 d before); Z. Çelik (90' Türkiye, 13 d before); T. Koopmeiners (90' Netherlands, 14 d before); N. Woltemade (26' Germany, 14 d before) CONFIRMED

Lazio

7.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Parma +6 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptSAA VeneziaW 2–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAH MonzaW 3–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctSAH Parma+6 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAA Sassuolo+8.9 d
  • Sun 1 NovSAH Cagliari+13.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Cancellieri (F) — reason unknown; A. Marusic (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Lazio: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Zaccagni · regularF090—
T. Noslin · regularF075—
R. BelahyaneM090—
D. FrattesiM0666' Italy, 13 d before
Nuno Tavares · regularD0750' Portugal, 14 d before
D. DoekhiD053—
C. Mandas · regularG0900' Greece, 14 d before
R. Floriani MussoliniD090—
O. Provstgaard · regularD015090' Denmark, 14 d before
K. Taylor · regularM0900' Netherlands, 14 d before
G. IsaksenF017282' Denmark, 14 d before

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 268 minutes — J. Šutalo (90' Croatia, 12 d before); D. Frattesi (6' Italy, 13 d before); O. Provstgaard (90' Denmark, 14 d before); G. Isaksen (82' Denmark, 14 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Juventus

None reported for this team.

Lazio

  • A. Furlanetto · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture
  • Patric · injury / absence: Sprained Ankle · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Juventus52%—58%
Draw26%—24%
Lazio21%—17%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Juventus a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (52% vs 58%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Juventus

  • Juventus: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 20%.
  • D1–1at Cagliari11 Oct · not in model evidence
  • W2–0v Atalanta20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3at Sassuolo13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v AC Milan6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Parma29 Aug · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Frosinone23 Aug · in model evidence

Lazio

  • Lazio: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.1 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W3–1v Monza11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Venezia19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v AC Milan12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Udinese7 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Genoa30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Bologna24 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

Total goals

0 goals10%
1 goal23%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more3%
Over 1.568%
Over 2.541%
Over 3.521%
Both teams score44%

Juventus

Expected goals1.49
Scores at least once77%
Scores 2 or more44%
Clean sheet43%

Lazio

Expected goals0.84
Scores at least once57%
Scores 2 or more21%
Clean sheet23%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability2 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

2 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 21 min ago.

Juventus

Nobody listed for this team.

Lazio

  • A. FurlanettoOutJumpers Knee
  • PatricOutSprained Ankle

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season8th v 2nd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Juventus

8th of 20 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L1 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WLDWW (most recent last)

Lazio

2nd of 20 · 16 pts · W5 D1 L0 from 6 games · scored 11, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 6, conceded 3) · Away W3 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WWDWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 8 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Juventus to win (90 minutes)
52%
58%
YES on Juventus to WinJuventus wins in 90 minutes
52%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,752 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Lazio to win (90 minutes)
21%
17%
YES on Lazio to WinLazio wins in 90 minutes
21%18¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,461 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
26%
24%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
26%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,419 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawJuventus or Lazio wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
74%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 919 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Lazio to WinJuventus wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
79%84¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,549 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Juventus to WinLazio wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
48%43¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,479 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
90%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
90%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,909 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
10%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,220 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
68%
74%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
68%74¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
32%27¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
41%
49%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
41%50¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,972 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
59%53¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 727 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
21%
26%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
21%28¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,229 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
79%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,724 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
9%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,850 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
91%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,307 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
3%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
97%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
44%
50%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
44%51¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,247 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
56%52¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 721 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Winning margin
Juventus to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
32%
Limited evidence
YES on Juventus to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsJuventus wins by 2 goals or more
27%33¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,198 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Juventus to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLazio wins or the match is drawn, or Juventus wins by 1 goal · Juventus not by 2+ goals
73%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 9,329 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Juventus to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Juventus to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsJuventus wins by 3 goals or more
11%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Juventus to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLazio wins or the match is drawn, or Juventus wins by 2 goals or fewer · Juventus not by 3+ goals
89%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,467 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Lazio to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Lazio to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLazio wins by 2 goals or more
7%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 534 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Lazio to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsJuventus wins or the match is drawn, or Lazio wins by 1 goal · Lazio not by 2+ goals
93%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 31 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Lazio to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Lazio to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLazio wins by 3 goals or more
2%4¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Lazio to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsJuventus wins or the match is drawn, or Lazio wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lazio not by 3+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 302 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 52.4% · draw 26.3% · away 21.3%
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.84
Juventus eligible matches
119 (119 with xG)
Lazio eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1196 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:56
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 11:33:51
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
  • xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 6% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

JuventusOpponentVenueScorexGResult
20 SeptAtalantahome2–01.31–0.60W
13 SeptSassuoloaway2–31.10–1.02L
6 SeptAC Milanhome1–11.59–0.11D
29 AugParmahome2–01.58–0.25W
23 AugFrosinoneaway1–02.18–0.41W
24 MayTorinoaway2–21.92–0.85D
LazioOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctMonzahome3–11.59–1.91W
19 SeptVeneziaaway2–01.60–1.89W
12 SeptAC Milanhome2–22.01–1.25D
7 SeptUdineseaway2–11.83–0.85W
30 AugGenoahome1–01.62–0.42W
24 AugBolognaaway1–00.63–1.78W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18JUVLAZ-BTTS
44.1%49.5%−5.4 pts0.48 / 0.510.526,247 / 721Comparable
seen 32 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Juventus to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV
52.4%58.0%−5.6 pts0.57 / 0.590.434,752 / 1,479Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Lazio to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ
21.3%17.0%+4.3 pts0.16 / 0.180.843,461 / 1,549Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-TIE
26.3%24.0%+2.3 pts0.23 / 0.250.774,419 / 919Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Juventus to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV2
26.8%31.5%−4.7 pts0.30 / 0.330.701,198 / 9,329Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Juventus to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV3
10.7%13.5%−2.8 pts0.12 / 0.150.88500 / 1,467Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lazio to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ2
6.8%6.0%+0.8 pts0.04 / 0.080.96534 / 31Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lazio to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ3
1.6%2.5%−0.9 pts0.01 / 0.040.99500 / 302Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-1
90.3%93.0%−2.7 pts0.91 / 0.950.091,909 / 1,220Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-2
67.7%73.5%−5.8 pts0.73 / 0.740.270 / 0Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-3
41.3%48.5%−7.2 pts0.47 / 0.500.531,972 / 727Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-4
20.8%26.0%−5.2 pts0.24 / 0.280.761,229 / 2,724Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-5
8.8%12.0%−3.2 pts0.10 / 0.140.901,850 / 1,307Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-6
3.2%4.0%−0.8 pts0.02 / 0.060.98500 / 250Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:03:44.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
52.4%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
26.3%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
21.3%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
41.3%—
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
58.7%—

No pages observed.

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:03:44.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:42:28 (Last checked 21 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Juventusok11/10/2026, 11:37:12 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Laziook11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home52.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw26.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away21.3%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x78.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x247.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1273.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes44.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no55.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.590.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.59.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.567.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.532.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.541.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.558.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.520.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.579.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.58.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.591.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.53.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.596.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.577.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.522.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.543.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.556.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.518.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.581.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.557.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.543.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.520.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.579.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.510.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.589.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.526.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.573.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.552.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.547.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.578.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.521.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.593.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.56.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.598.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.51.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home71.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away28.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 432 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:03:44