Parmav
Torino
Got%OnIt gives Torino a 38% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.
Worth knowing: We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
Recent developments
Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.
Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.
Why
What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.
Used by the model
- The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
- On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Parma and 1.1 for Torino.
- Parma won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 a game.
- Torino won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 a game.
What argues against it
- We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
- Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
- The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.
Not used by the model · context
- Parma are 18th of 20 after 6 games; Torino are 15th.
- Parma have won 1 and lost 4; Torino have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used
Parma
- L0–3at Inter10 Oct
- W2–1v Genoa20 Sept
- L1–2at Como14 Sept
- D1–1v Monza6 Sept
- L0–2at Juventus29 Aug
- L0–1v Cagliari22 Aug
Torino
- D1–1at Bologna19 Sept
- L0–2v AS Roma14 Sept
- W2–1at Fiorentina5 Sept
- L1–2at Sassuolo29 Aug
- L1–2v AC Milan23 Aug
- D2–2v Juventus24 May
It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.
What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT
The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 625, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.
- Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-19T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
- Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Torino)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Parma)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
- Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:38 PDT1198 finished Serie A matches (1184 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
- Observation time unknowninjury reporttime unknownnot collected for this match
- Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationParma 9 d rest · Torino 7 d rest
Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.
Used in the model
- finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
- the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED
The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.
Context not yet proven to improve predictions
Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.
Parma
9.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED
Next: Serie A A Lazio +5 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Sun 20 SeptSAH GenoaW 2–1counted as workload
- Sat 10 OctSAA InterL 0–3counted as workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sat 24 OctSAA Lazio+5 d
- Wed 28 OctSAH Udinese+8.9 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Troilo · regular | D | 0 | 90 | — |
| E. Corvi · regular | G | 0 | 90 | — |
| F. Carboni | D | 0 | 78 | — |
| M. Keita · regular | M | 0 | 93 | 3' Belgium, 14 d before |
| G. Fabbian | M | 0 | 62 | — |
| E. Valeri · regular | M | 0 | 90 | — |
| E. Touré · regular | M | 0 | 84 | — |
| N. Elphege | F | 0 | 61 | — |
| V. Sierro | M | 0 | 107 | 45' Switzerland, 13 d before |
| E. Del Prato · regular | M | 0 | 90 | — |
| Diego Carlos | D | 0 | 90 | — |
International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 138 minutes — M. Keita (3' Belgium, 14 d before); S. Britschgi (90' Switzerland, 13 d before); V. Sierro (45' Switzerland, 13 d before) CONFIRMED
Torino
7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 1 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED
Next: Serie A H Monza +4 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Mon 12 OctSAH UdineseNScounted as scheduled workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Fri 23 OctSAH Monza+4 d
- Tue 27 OctSAH Como+8 d
- Sun 1 NovSAA Frosinone+12.8 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 24 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 5 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Braganca | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| S. Coco · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| E. Comert | D | 0 | 0 | 0' Switzerland, 13 d before |
| A. Ismajli | D | 0 | 90 | 90' Albania, 13 d before |
| N. Fortini | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| A. Cacciamani | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| G. Simeone · regular | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| N. Vlasic · regular | F | 0 | 71 | 71' Croatia, 13 d before |
| Lucas Perri | G | 0 | 0 | — |
| K. Fitz-Jim | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| R. Mandragora | M | 0 | 0 | — |
International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 231 minutes — A. Ismajli (90' Albania, 13 d before); N. Vlasic (71' Croatia, 13 d before); R. Rodriguez (70' Switzerland, 13 d before) CONFIRMED
Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED
No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.
Starting line-ups UNKNOWN
Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.
Unknown or unavailable
- Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
- International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
- A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
- The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
- Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
- Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN
Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.
Pregame comparison
What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.
| Outcome | Got%OnIt | Books | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 33% | — | 30% |
| Draw | 29% | — | 32% |
| Torino | 38% | — | 39% |
Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.
Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate
Observed — results as they happened
Parma
- Parma: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 0.7 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
- Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.
- L0–3at Inter10 Oct · in model evidence
- W2–1v Genoa20 Sept · in model evidence
- L1–2at Como14 Sept · in model evidence
- D1–1v Monza6 Sept · in model evidence
- L0–2at Juventus29 Aug · in model evidence
- L0–1v Cagliari22 Aug · in model evidence
Torino
- Torino: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
- Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.
- D1–1at Bologna19 Sept · in model evidence
- L0–2v AS Roma14 Sept · in model evidence
- W2–1at Fiorentina5 Sept · in model evidence
- L1–2at Sassuolo29 Aug · in model evidence
- L1–2v AC Milan23 Aug · in model evidence
- D2–2v Juventus24 May · in model evidence
observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from
Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT
Total goals
| 0 goals | 11% |
| 1 goal | 24% |
| 2 goals | 27% |
| 3 goals | 20% |
| 4 goals | 11% |
| 5 goals | 5% |
| 6 or more | 2% |
| Over 1.5 | 64% |
| Over 2.5 | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% |
| Both teams score | 44% |
Parma
| Expected goals | 1.06 |
| Scores at least once | 65% |
| Scores 2 or more | 28% |
| Clean sheet | 32% |
Torino
| Expected goals | 1.14 |
| Scores at least once | 68% |
| Scores 2 or more | 31% |
| Clean sheet | 35% |
model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since
Player availabilitynot available
Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.
We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.
A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.
Starting lineupsnot received
Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.
This season18th v 15th
This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.
Parma
18th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L4 from 6 games · scored 4, conceded 10
Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L3 (scored 1, conceded 7)
Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 3 in 6 games
Last five league games LWLDL (most recent last)
Torino
15th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 8
Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4)
Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games
Last five league games DLWLL (most recent last)
Table Last checked 9 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.
All markets3 Kalshi contracts
Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.
Parma to win (90 minutes)33%30%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Draw (90 minutes)29%32%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Torino to win (90 minutes)38%39%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence
Model snapshot
- Probabilities
- home 33.3% · draw 29.2% · away 37.5%
- Expected goals
- 1.06 – 1.14
- Parma eligible matches
- 82 (82 with xG)
- Torino eligible matches
- 119 (119 with xG)
- Competition matches in the evidence set
- 1198 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:58
- xG weight
- 0.5
- Cutoff
- 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
- Maturity
- historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
- Flags
- xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
- draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
- xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
- Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
- evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
- historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
- xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
- draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
Matches the model used (most recent first)
the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.
| Parma | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Inter | away | 0–3 | 0.51–2.50 | L |
| 20 Sept | Genoa | home | 2–1 | 0.53–0.70 | W |
| 14 Sept | Como | away | 1–2 | 1.15–2.98 | L |
| 6 Sept | Monza | home | 1–1 | 0.73–1.72 | D |
| 29 Aug | Juventus | away | 0–2 | 0.25–1.58 | L |
| 22 Aug | Cagliari | home | 0–1 | 0.75–0.94 | L |
| Torino | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sept | Bologna | away | 1–1 | 1.14–0.92 | D |
| 14 Sept | AS Roma | home | 0–2 | 0.86–1.85 | L |
| 5 Sept | Fiorentina | away | 2–1 | 0.58–1.67 | W |
| 29 Aug | Sassuolo | away | 1–2 | 1.26–1.85 | L |
| 23 Aug | AC Milan | home | 1–2 | 1.29–2.15 | L |
| 24 May | Juventus | home | 2–2 | 0.85–1.92 | D |
Kalshi contracts and the model
3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).
| Match winner | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma to win (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-PAR | 33.3% | 29.5% | +3.8 pts | 0.28 / 0.31 | 0.72 | 3,099 / 770 | Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient |
| Torino to win (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-TOR | 37.5% | 38.5% | −1.0 pts | 0.37 / 0.40 | 0.63 | 3,176 / 688 | Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient |
| Draw | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-TIE | 29.2% | 31.5% | −2.3 pts | 0.30 / 0.33 | 0.70 | 5,349 / 424 | Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient |
Bookmaker consensus
median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:05:48.
| Match result | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 33.3% | — |
| 1x2:draw | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 29.2% | — |
| 1x2:away | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 37.5% | — |
No pages observed.
| Total goals, 2.5 line | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| total_goals:over:2.5 | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 37.5% | — |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 62.5% | — |
No pages observed.
Sports evidence trail
availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:05:48.
| Dataset | State | Observed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Injuries | not_observed | — | |
| Lineups | not_observed | — | before the window |
| Standings | ok | 11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 9 h ago) | fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026 |
| Season statistics · Parma | ok | 11/10/2026, 11:37:15 (Last checked 9 h ago) | fresh |
| Season statistics · Torino | ok | 11/10/2026, 11:37:13 (Last checked 9 h ago) | fresh |
Every stored market probability of the snapshot
Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.
| Key | Probability | Support | Historical evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | 33.3% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:draw | 29.2% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:away | 37.5% | supported | primary_target |
| double_chance:1x | 62.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| double_chance:x2 | 66.7% | supported | not_evaluated |
| double_chance:12 | 70.8% | supported | not_evaluated |
| btts:yes | 44.3% | supported | supported_not_validated |
| btts:no | 55.7% | supported | supported_not_validated |
| total_goals:over:0.5 | 88.8% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:0.5 | 11.2% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:over:1.5 | 64.4% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:1.5 | 35.6% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:over:2.5 | 37.5% | supported | encouraging |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | 62.5% | supported | encouraging |
| total_goals:over:3.5 | 17.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:3.5 | 82.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:over:4.5 | 7.2% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:4.5 | 92.8% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:over:5.5 | 2.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:5.5 | 97.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:over:0.5 | 65.2% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:under:0.5 | 34.8% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:over:1.5 | 28.4% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:under:1.5 | 71.6% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:over:2.5 | 9.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:under:2.5 | 90.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:over:3.5 | 2.3% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:under:3.5 | 97.7% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:over:0.5 | 68.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:under:0.5 | 32.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:over:1.5 | 31.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:under:1.5 | 68.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:over:2.5 | 10.7% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:under:2.5 | 89.3% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:over:3.5 | 2.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:under:3.5 | 97.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:-2.5 | 3.8% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:+2.5 | 96.2% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:-1.5 | 12.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:+1.5 | 87.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:-0.5 | 33.3% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:+0.5 | 66.7% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:+0.5 | 62.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:-0.5 | 37.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:+1.5 | 84.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:-1.5 | 15.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:+2.5 | 95.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:-2.5 | 4.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| draw_no_bet:home | 47.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| draw_no_bet:away | 53.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
Snapshot 625 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:05:48