Serie A·Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT

UdinesevLecce

Udinese

51%

Draw

26%

Lecce

23%

Got%OnIt gives Udinese a 51% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Udinese and 0.9 for Lecce.
Udinese won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.
Lecce won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Udinese are 14th of 20 after 5 games; Lecce are 12th.
Udinese have won 1 and lost 3; Lecce have won 2 and lost 4.

Recent matches the model used

Udinese

L0–1v Cagliari19 Sept
L3–5at Inter14 Sept
L1–2v Lazio7 Sept
W3–2at Monza29 Aug
D1–1v Como22 Aug
L0–1at Napoli24 May

Lecce

L1–2v Bologna11 Oct
L0–3at AC Milan20 Sept
W3–2v Monza13 Sept
L0–1at Cagliari7 Sept
L0–4v AS Roma31 Aug
W2–0at Venezia23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT; snapshot 416, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T10:30:00+00:00, status NS
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDT1196 finished Serie A matches (1182 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Udinese)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lecce)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 19:32 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationUdinese 2 absent regulars · Lecce 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Udinese

5.7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H AC Milan +7.4 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptSAH CagliariL 0–1counted as workload
Mon 12 OctSAA TorinoNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 25 OctSAH AC Milan+7.4 d
Wed 28 OctSAA Parma+10.3 d
Sat 31 OctSAH AS Roma+13.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Solet (D) — reason unknown; J. Piotrowski (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Udinese: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
K. Davis · regular	F	0	—
H. Kamara · regular	M	0	—
L. Miller	M	0	0' Scotland, 11.7 d before
M. Vojvoda · regular	M	90	90' Kosovo, 13.8 d before
C. Kabasele	D	0	—
J. Ekkelenkamp · regular	F	0	—
J. Abankwah	D	0	—
M. Okoye · regular	G	0	—
E. Ebosse	D	0	—
J. Karlstrom · regular	M	54	54' Sweden, 12.7 d before
N. Zaniolo	F	0	—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 169 minutes — M. Vojvoda (90' Kosovo, 13.8 d before); J. Karlstrom (54' Sweden, 12.7 d before); G. Chakvetadze (25' Georgia, 12.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Lecce

6.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Juventus +7.3 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptSAA AC MilanL 0–3counted as workload
Sun 11 OctSAH BolognaL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 25 OctSAH Juventus+7.3 d
Thu 29 OctSAA Frosinone+11.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 25 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78 CONFIRMED

Lecce: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
L. Coulibaly · regular	M	90	90	—
S. Pierotti · regular	F	62	62	—
Paco Esteban	F	62	62	—
W. Falcone · regular	G	90	90	—
Tiago Gabriel · regular	D	90	90	—
Danilo Veiga · regular	D	90	90	—
J. Siebert · regular	D	90	90	—
A. Gallo · regular	D	90	90	—
I. Ilić	M	36	36	—
Y. Maleh	M	79	79	—
A. Ahmed Fatah	F	79	79	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 32 minutes — O. Gandelman (32' Israel, 13.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Udinese	51%	51%	52%
Draw	26%	27%	27%
Lecce	23%	23%	22%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Udinese

Udinese: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.

L0–1v Cagliari19 Sept · in model evidence
L3–5at Inter14 Sept · in model evidence
L1–2v Lazio7 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2at Monza29 Aug · in model evidence
D1–1v Como22 Aug · in model evidence
L0–1at Napoli24 May · in model evidence

Lecce

Lecce: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 60%.

L1–2v Bologna11 Oct · in model evidence
L0–3at AC Milan20 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2v Monza13 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1at Cagliari7 Sept · in model evidence
L0–4v AS Roma31 Aug · in model evidence
W2–0at Venezia23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	9%
1 goal	22%
2 goals	26%
3 goals	21%
4 goals	12%
5 goals	6%
6 or more	3%
Over 1.5	69%
Over 2.5	42%
Over 3.5	22%
Both teams score	46%

Udinese

Expected goals	1.47
Scores at least once	77%
Scores 2 or more	43%
Clean sheet	41%

Lecce

Expected goals	0.90
Scores at least once	59%
Scores 2 or more	23%
Clean sheet	23%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 22 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season14th v 12th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Udinese

14th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 11

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 2, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 6, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LLLWD (most recent last)

Lecce

12th of 20 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L4 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 12

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 4, conceded 8) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games LLWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 8 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Lecce to win (90 minutes)

23%

22%

YES on Lecce to WinLecce wins in 90 minutes

23%23¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,723 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

26%

27%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

26%28¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,806 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Udinese to win (90 minutes)

51%

52%

YES on Udinese to WinUdinese wins in 90 minutes

51%53¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 16,094 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawUdinese or Lecce wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

74%75¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 11,498 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lecce to WinUdinese wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

77%79¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,023 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Udinese to WinLecce wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

49%50¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 723 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

91%

92%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

91%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,434 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

9%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,047 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

69%

72%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

69%73¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 725 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

31%29¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 723 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

42%

47%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

42%48¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,226 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

58%55¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,335 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

22%

25%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

22%26¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

78%77¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,236 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

11%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

9%12¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,225 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

91%91¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,435 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

3%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 527 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

97%97¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

46%

51%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

46%52¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,226 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

54%51¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,989 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Winning margin

Lecce to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Lecce to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLecce wins by 2 goals or more

8%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 723 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lecce to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUdinese wins or the match is drawn, or Lecce wins by 1 goal · Lecce not by 2+ goals

92%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,335 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Lecce to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Lecce to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLecce wins by 3 goals or more

2%5¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 26 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lecce to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUdinese wins or the match is drawn, or Lecce wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lecce not by 3+ goals

98%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

25%

26%

Limited evidence

YES on Udinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUdinese wins by 2 goals or more

25%27¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,225 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Udinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLecce wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 1 goal · Udinese not by 2+ goals

75%76¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 723 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

Limited evidence

YES on Udinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUdinese wins by 3 goals or more

10%11¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Udinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLecce wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 2 goals or fewer · Udinese not by 3+ goals

90%92¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,475 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 50.5% · draw 26.4% · away 23.1%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 0.90
Udinese eligible matches: 119 (118 with xG)
Lecce eligible matches: 120 (119 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1196 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:56
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 11:33:51
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
xG stored for 1182 of 1196 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Udinese	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
19 Sept	Cagliari	home	0–1	2.13–1.12	L
14 Sept	Inter	away	3–5	—	L
7 Sept	Lazio	home	1–2	0.85–1.83	L
29 Aug	Monza	away	3–2	0.98–1.70	W
22 Aug	Como	home	1–1	2.14–1.50	D
24 May	Napoli	away	0–1	0.37–1.76	L

Lecce	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Bologna	home	1–2	1.27–1.55	L
20 Sept	AC Milan	away	0–3	0.21–2.19	L
13 Sept	Monza	home	3–2	1.08–2.79	W
7 Sept	Cagliari	away	0–1	0.50–1.61	L
31 Aug	AS Roma	home	0–4	0.80–3.27	L
23 Aug	Venezia	away	2–0	—	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18UDILEC-BTTS	45.8%	50.5%	−4.7 pts	0.49 / 0.52	0.51	1,226 / 3,989	Comparable seen 32 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Lecce to win (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC	23.1%	22.0%	+1.1 pts	0.21 / 0.23	0.79	2,723 / 1,023	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI	50.5%	51.5%	−1.0 pts	0.50 / 0.53	0.50	16,094 / 723	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-TIE	26.4%	26.5%	−0.1 pts	0.25 / 0.28	0.75	5,806 / 11,498	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Lecce to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC2	7.7%	7.0%	+0.7 pts	0.06 / 0.08	0.94	723 / 1,335	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lecce to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC3	2.0%	3.0%	−1.0 pts	0.01 / 0.05	0.99	26 / 300	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI2	25.5%	25.5%	−0.0 pts	0.24 / 0.27	0.76	1,225 / 723	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI3	10.1%	9.5%	+0.6 pts	0.08 / 0.11	0.92	500 / 1,475	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-1	90.7%	92.0%	−1.3 pts	0.90 / 0.94	0.10	7,434 / 2,047	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-2	68.6%	72.0%	−3.4 pts	0.71 / 0.73	0.29	725 / 723	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-3	42.4%	46.5%	−4.1 pts	0.45 / 0.48	0.55	1,226 / 1,335	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-4	21.6%	24.5%	−2.9 pts	0.23 / 0.26	0.77	500 / 1,236	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-5	9.3%	10.5%	−1.2 pts	0.09 / 0.12	0.91	1,225 / 1,435	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-6	3.4%	4.5%	−1.1 pts	0.03 / 0.06	0.97	527 / 250	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:04:06.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	50.6%	47.9% – 50.8%	53.6%	1.86	10	50.5%	−0.1 pts
1x2:draw	26.8%	26.5% – 28.1%	28.6%	3.50	10	26.4%	−0.4 pts
1x2:away	22.7%	21.7% – 24.0%	23.8%	4.20	10	23.1%	+0.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:27.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	48.9%	46.8% – 50.0%	51.8%	1.93	8	42.4%	−6.5 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	51.1%	50.0% – 53.2%	54.1%	1.85	8	57.6%	+6.5 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:28.

Every bookmaker page used (18)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 4.20 · draw 3.60 · home 1.89	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betfair	Match winner	away 4.00 · draw 3.50 · home 1.85	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 4.21 · draw 3.54 · home 1.88	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBO	Match winner	away 3.69 · draw 3.15 · home 1.85	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
William Hill	Match winner	away 3.90 · draw 3.40 · home 1.85	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365	Match winner	away 4.33 · draw 3.40 · home 1.85	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Dafabet	Match winner	away 4.20 · draw 3.55 · home 1.88	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBet	Match winner	away 4.32 · draw 3.70 · home 1.94	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betano	Match winner	away 4.25 · draw 3.45 · home 1.91	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictor	Match winner	away 4.10 · draw 3.50 · home 1.83	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.93 · under 2.5 1.88	11/10/2026, 11:37:28	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.80	11/10/2026, 11:37:28	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.05 · under 2.5 1.80	11/10/2026, 11:37:28	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBO	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.04 · under 2.5 1.82	11/10/2026, 11:37:28	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.91	11/10/2026, 11:37:28	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.00 · under 2.5 1.94	11/10/2026, 11:37:28	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.93 · under 2.5 1.91	11/10/2026, 11:37:28	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.90 · under 2.5 1.78	11/10/2026, 11:37:28	11/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:04:06.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:11 (Last checked 22 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Udinese	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:11 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Lecce	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:15 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	50.5%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	26.4%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	23.1%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	76.9%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	49.5%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	73.6%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	45.8%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	54.2%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	90.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	9.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	68.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	31.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	42.4%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	57.6%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	21.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	78.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	9.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	90.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	3.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	96.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	77.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	22.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	43.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	56.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	18.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	81.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	6.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	93.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	59.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	40.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	22.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	77.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	6.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	93.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	1.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	98.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	10.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	89.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	25.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	74.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	50.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	49.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	76.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	23.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	92.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	7.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	98.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	2.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	68.6%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	31.4%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 416 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:04:06