Got%OnIt
Matches
Ligue 1·Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT

Le HavrevAuxerre

Le Havre
41%
Draw
28%
Auxerre
31%

Got%OnIt gives Le Havre a 41% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Le Havre and 1.1 for Auxerre.
  • Le Havre won 0 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 a game.
  • Auxerre won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Le Havre are 18th of 18 after 6 games; Auxerre are 15th.
  • Le Havre have won 0 and lost 4; Auxerre have won 2 and lost 4.
Recent matches the model used

Le Havre

  • L0–1at Lille10 Oct
  • L2–3at Toulouse19 Sept
  • D0–0v Angers12 Sept
  • L1–2v Stade Brestois 295 Sept
  • D1–1at Lyon29 Aug
  • L0–1v Monaco23 Aug

Auxerre

  • L1–4at Rennes11 Oct
  • W2–1v Stade Brestois 2920 Sept
  • W1–0v Nice12 Sept
  • L1–3at Lyon4 Sept
  • L1–3v Angers29 Aug
  • L2–5at Lens22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Le Havre win40.8%37.5%−3.3 pts
Draw27.8%28.2%+0.4 pts
Auxerre win31.4%34.3%+2.9 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.33 and 1.13). Le Havre 1.33 · Auxerre 1.13 · total 2.46 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Le Havre–Auxerre)

  1. 1–113.2%
  2. 1–011.0%
  3. 0–19.3%
  4. 0–08.9%
  5. 2–18.5%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Le Havre

Expected goals
1.33
Scoring vs average
×0.84
Conceding vs average
×0.89

Auxerre

Expected goals
1.13
Scoring vs average
×0.89
Conceding vs average
×0.84
  • Le Havre (home): expected to score ×0.84 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.89 the average.
  • Auxerre (away): expected to score ×0.89 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.84 the average.
  • Recent 298 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.58 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.25).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Le Havre
108 matches (108 with xG)
Auxerre
74 matches (74 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home40.8%over-stated by 0.1 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 39.2%
1x2:draw27.8%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 25.2%
1x2:away31.4%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 29.6%
double_chance:1x68.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x259.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1272.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes50.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no49.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.591.1%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.7%
total_goals:under:0.58.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.570.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 70.1%
total_goals:under:1.529.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.544.6%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 43.9%
total_goals:under:2.555.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.523.4%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.8%
total_goals:under:3.576.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.510.3%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 8.5%
total_goals:under:4.589.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.53.9%under-stated by 0.0 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 3.3%
total_goals:under:5.596.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.573.5%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 72.9%
team_total:home:under:0.526.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.538.3%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.7%
team_total:home:under:1.561.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.514.9%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.5%
team_total:home:under:2.585.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.54.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.7%
team_total:home:under:3.595.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.567.7%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 67.1%
team_total:away:under:0.532.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.531.2%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 30.6%
team_total:away:under:1.568.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.510.6%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.2%
team_total:away:under:2.589.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.8%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.4%
team_total:away:under:3.597.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.56.8%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.8%
spread:away:+2.593.2%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.9%
spread:home:-1.518.9%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 16.9%
spread:away:+1.581.1%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 80.6%
spread:home:-0.540.8%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 39.0%
spread:away:+0.559.2%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 58.5%
spread:home:+0.568.6%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 68.0%
spread:away:-0.531.4%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 30.2%
spread:home:+1.587.3%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 86.8%
spread:away:-1.512.7%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 12.0%
spread:home:+2.596.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.53.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home56.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away43.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.32 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 2364273450755563009 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.11 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Le Havre win40.8%41.0% ± 0.2+0.20 pts
Draw27.8%27.0% ± 0.1−0.74 pts
Auxerre win31.4%31.9% ± 0.1+0.54 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.32 pts (team_total:home:under:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Le Havre
32.2% ± 0.1 (exact 32.3%)
Auxerre
26.6% ± 0.1 (exact 26.5%)

Goal difference (Le Havre minus Auxerre)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -40.8% ± 0.0
  4. -33.0% ± 0.1
  5. -28.9% ± 0.1
  6. -119.0% ± 0.1
  7. 027.0% ± 0.1
  8. 122.4% ± 0.1
  9. 212.0% ± 0.1
  10. 34.7% ± 0.1
  11. 41.4% ± 0.0
  12. 50.4% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Le Havre 1–1 Auxerre12.9% ± 0.113.2%
Le Havre 1–0 Auxerre11.5% ± 0.111.0%
Le Havre 0–1 Auxerre9.6% ± 0.19.3%
Le Havre 2–1 Auxerre8.5% ± 0.18.5%
Le Havre 0–0 Auxerre8.5% ± 0.18.9%

Expected goals (simulated)

Le Havre
mean 1.32 · variance 1.32 · ± 0.004
Auxerre
mean 1.13 · variance 1.13 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.7 pts (to 27.1%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Le Havre and +0.00 for Auxerre.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Le Havre win40.8%41.2%+0.3 pts
Draw27.8%27.1%−0.7 pts
Auxerre win31.4%31.7%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.33 – 1.131.33 – 1.13+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 100 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Le Havre

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice G. Gallon)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Auxerre

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Diop)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move auxerre win by +1.4 pts (to 32.8%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Le Havre and +0.02 for Auxerre.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Le Havre win40.8%40.0%−0.9 pts
Draw27.8%27.3%−0.5 pts
Auxerre win31.4%32.8%+1.4 pts
Expected goals1.33 – 1.131.30 – 1.15−0.03 / +0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 100 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Le Havre rate ×0.98 band 0.77–1.22

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.051515151515151514 · contribution 0.000 (-0.003 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Auxerre rate ×1.01 band 0.80–1.32

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.051515151515151514 · contribution -0.001 (-0.004 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move auxerre win by +1.4 pts (to 32.8%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Le Havre and +0.02 for Auxerre.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Le Havre win40.8%40.0%−0.9 pts
Draw27.8%27.3%−0.5 pts
Auxerre win31.4%32.8%+1.4 pts
Expected goals1.33 – 1.131.30 – 1.15−0.03 / +0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 100 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Le Havre

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice G. Gallon)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Auxerre

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Diop)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Le Havre rate ×0.98 band 0.77–1.22

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.051515151515151514 · contribution 0.000 (-0.003 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Auxerre rate ×1.01 band 0.80–1.32

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.051515151515151514 · contribution -0.001 (-0.004 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Le Havre win40.8%41.1%+0.3 pts
Draw27.8%27.1%−0.7 pts
Auxerre win31.4%31.7%+0.4 pts
Expected goals—1.33 – 1.13−0.00 / +0.00

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 603 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)A. Samatta 20% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Le Havre

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 36% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
A. Samatta F20.1% ± 0.12.1% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.001100%
J. Maja F4.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00166%
S. Ebonog M4.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00189%
R. Ndiaye M3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00164%
R. Fofana F2.7% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00118%

Auxerre

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 45% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
C. Archer F12.2% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00166%
D. Namaso F10.0% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.001100%
K. Danois M9.3% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.001100%
L. Sy M4.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00197%
S. Diomande D2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00034%
R. Labeau Lascary F2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00053%

Run 998 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 493, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T15:15:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Auxerre)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Le Havre)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Ligue 1 matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLe Havre 1 absent regular · Auxerre 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Le Havre

8 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 2 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Marseille +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptL1A ToulouseL 2–3counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctL1A LilleL 0–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctL1A Marseille+7 d
  • Fri 30 OctL1H Paris Saint Germain+12.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (10 starters, 19 in the squad); 38 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: F. Doucoure (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Le Havre: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
D. OuziadD090—
A. Seko · regularD090—
S. Ebonog · regularM090—
S. NakamuraM069—
J. MajaF069—
A. ToubaD090—
M. Samatta · regularM090—
G. GallonG090—
A. RichardsonM082—
R. Ndiaye · regularM090—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Auxerre

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 H Le Mans +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptL1H Stade Brestois 29W 2–1counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctL1A RennesL 1–4counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctL1H Le Mans+7 d
  • Sun 1 NovL1A Strasbourg+13.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 19 in the squad); 38 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 5 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.4 CONFIRMED

Auxerre: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. Ahamada · regularM7777—
L. Sy · regularM9090—
C. AkpaD7676—
A. TuanzebeD9090—
M. DiopG9090—
A. PiedfortD8282—
R. FaivreM8787—
D. Namaso · regularM7777—
F. OppegårdM9090—
C. ArcherF9090—
K. Danois · regularM9090—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Le Havre41%39%39%
Draw28%28%28%
Auxerre31%33%33%
Based on 9 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 24 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Le Havre

  • Le Havre: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.1 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 30%.
  • L0–1at Lille10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L2–3at Toulouse19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Angers12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Stade Brestois 295 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Lyon29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Monaco23 Aug · in model evidence

Auxerre

  • Auxerre: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.7 and conceded 2.1 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • L1–4at Rennes11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Stade Brestois 2920 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Nice12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–3at Lyon4 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–3v Angers29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L2–5at Lens22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more4%
Over 1.571%
Over 2.545%
Over 3.523%
Both teams score50%

Le Havre

Expected goals1.33
Scores at least once74%
Scores 2 or more38%
Clean sheet32%

Auxerre

Expected goals1.13
Scores at least once68%
Scores 2 or more31%
Clean sheet26%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 2 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season18th v 15th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Le Havre

18th of 18 · 2 pts · W0 D2 L4 from 6 games · scored 4, conceded 8

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 1, conceded 3) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 3, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games LLDLD (most recent last)

Auxerre

15th of 18 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L4 from 6 games · scored 8, conceded 16

Home W2 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4) · Away W0 D0 L3 (scored 4, conceded 12)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games LWWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 10 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Le Havre to win40.8%41.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 40¢
Draw27.8%27.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 29¢
Auxerre to win31.4%31.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 34¢
Double chance
Le Havre or draw limited evidence68.6%68.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 68¢
Auxerre or draw limited evidence59.2%59.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 63¢
Not a draw limited evidence72.2%73.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Draw no bet
Le Havre to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence56.6%56.2% ± 0.2no
Auxerre to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence43.4%43.8% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence91.1%91.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 94¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence8.9%8.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 9¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence70.8%70.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 77¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence29.2%29.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 26¢
Over 2.5 goals in total44.6%44.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 52¢
Under 2.5 goals in total55.4%55.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 51¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence23.4%23.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence76.6%76.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence10.3%10.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence89.7%89.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence3.9%3.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence96.1%96.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence50.1%49.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence49.9%50.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢
Team goals
Le Havre over 0.5 goals limited evidence73.5%73.4% ± 0.1no
Le Havre under 0.5 goals limited evidence26.5%26.6% ± 0.1no
Le Havre over 1.5 goals limited evidence38.3%38.0% ± 0.2no
Le Havre under 1.5 goals limited evidence61.7%62.0% ± 0.2no
Le Havre over 2.5 goals limited evidence14.9%14.8% ± 0.1no
Le Havre under 2.5 goals limited evidence85.1%85.2% ± 0.1no
Le Havre over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.6%4.6% ± 0.1no
Le Havre under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.4%95.4% ± 0.1no
Auxerre over 0.5 goals limited evidence67.7%67.8% ± 0.1no
Auxerre under 0.5 goals limited evidence32.3%32.2% ± 0.1no
Auxerre over 1.5 goals limited evidence31.2%31.4% ± 0.1no
Auxerre under 1.5 goals limited evidence68.8%68.6% ± 0.1no
Auxerre over 2.5 goals limited evidence10.6%10.6% ± 0.1no
Auxerre under 2.5 goals limited evidence89.4%89.4% ± 0.1no
Auxerre over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.8%2.8% ± 0.1no
Auxerre under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.2%97.2% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Le Havre to win by 3 or more limited evidence6.8%6.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Le Havre to win by 2 or more limited evidence18.9%18.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Le Havre to win by 1 or more limited evidence40.8%41.0% ± 0.2no
Le Havre not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence68.6%68.1% ± 0.1no
Le Havre not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence87.3%87.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Le Havre not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence96.1%96.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
Auxerre to win by 3 or more limited evidence3.9%4.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Auxerre to win by 2 or more limited evidence12.7%12.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 16¢
Auxerre to win by 1 or more limited evidence31.4%31.9% ± 0.1no
Auxerre not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence59.2%59.0% ± 0.2no
Auxerre not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence81.1%81.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 84¢
Auxerre not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence93.2%93.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Clean sheet
Le Havre clean sheet grid32.3%32.2% ± 0.1no
Auxerre clean sheet grid26.5%26.6% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—27.0% ± 0.1not listed
Le Havre by exactly 1—22.4% ± 0.1not listed
Le Havre by exactly 2—12.0% ± 0.1not listed
Le Havre by exactly 3—4.7% ± 0.1not listed
Le Havre by exactly 4—1.4% ± 0.0not listed
Le Havre by exactly 5—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Auxerre by exactly 1—19.0% ± 0.1not listed
Auxerre by exactly 2—8.9% ± 0.1not listed
Auxerre by exactly 3—3.0% ± 0.1not listed
Auxerre by exactly 4—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
Auxerre by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Le Havre by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Auxerre by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Le Havre 1–1 Auxerre—12.9% ± 0.1not listed
Le Havre 1–0 Auxerre—11.5% ± 0.1not listed
Le Havre 0–1 Auxerre—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
Le Havre 2–1 Auxerre—8.5% ± 0.1not listed
Le Havre 0–0 Auxerre—8.5% ± 0.1not listed

Le Havre v Auxerre: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Auxerre to win (90 minutes)
31%
33%
YES on Auxerre to WinAuxerre wins in 90 minutes
31%34¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,000 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Le Havre to win (90 minutes)
41%
39%
YES on Le Havre to WinLe Havre wins in 90 minutes
41%40¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,994 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
28%
28%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
28%29¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,000 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawLe Havre or Auxerre wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
72%73¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 480 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Auxerre to WinLe Havre wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
69%68¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 438 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Le Havre to WinAuxerre wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
59%63¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 481 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
91%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
91%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 437 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
9%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 947 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
71%
76%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
71%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 946 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
29%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 446 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
45%
51%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
45%52¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 937 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
55%51¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 444 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
23%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
23%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 945 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
77%73¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,369 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
10%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 953 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
90%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 940 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
4%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 508 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
96%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 218 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
50%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
50%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,026 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
50%45¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,346 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Winning margin
Auxerre to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Auxerre to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAuxerre wins by 2 goals or more
13%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 940 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Auxerre to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLe Havre wins or the match is drawn, or Auxerre wins by 1 goal · Auxerre not by 2+ goals
87%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 437 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Auxerre to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Auxerre to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAuxerre wins by 3 goals or more
4%7¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Auxerre to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLe Havre wins or the match is drawn, or Auxerre wins by 2 goals or fewer · Auxerre not by 3+ goals
96%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 437 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Le Havre to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
19%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Le Havre to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLe Havre wins by 2 goals or more
19%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 974 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Le Havre to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAuxerre wins or the match is drawn, or Le Havre wins by 1 goal · Le Havre not by 2+ goals
81%84¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,003 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Le Havre to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Le Havre to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLe Havre wins by 3 goals or more
7%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 942 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
NO on Le Havre to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAuxerre wins or the match is drawn, or Le Havre wins by 2 goals or fewer · Le Havre not by 3+ goals
93%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 899 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 40.8% · draw 27.8% · away 31.4%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.13
Le Havre eligible matches
108 (108 with xG)
Auxerre eligible matches
74 (74 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Le HavreOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctLilleaway0–11.34–1.35L
19 SeptToulouseaway2–32.34–1.95L
12 SeptAngershome0–01.31–0.59D
5 SeptStade Brestois 29home1–22.02–2.37L
29 AugLyonaway1–10.69–1.75D
23 AugMonacohome0–10.60–1.39L
AuxerreOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctRennesaway1–41.51–2.21L
20 SeptStade Brestois 29home2–10.96–0.34W
12 SeptNicehome1–01.74–1.08W
4 SeptLyonaway1–30.71–2.85L
29 AugAngershome1–31.81–1.55L
22 AugLensaway2–51.84–4.41L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18HACAUX-BTTS
50.1%56.5%−6.4 pts0.55 / 0.580.457,026 / 3,346Comparable
seen 24 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Auxerre to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX
31.4%33.0%−1.6 pts0.32 / 0.340.684,000 / 438Comparable
seen 24 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Le Havre to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC
40.8%38.5%+2.3 pts0.37 / 0.400.634,994 / 481Comparable
seen 24 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-TIE
27.8%28.0%−0.2 pts0.27 / 0.290.734,000 / 480Comparable
seen 24 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Auxerre to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX2
12.7%14.5%−1.8 pts0.13 / 0.160.87940 / 437Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Auxerre to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX3
3.9%5.5%−1.6 pts0.04 / 0.070.964 / 437Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Le Havre to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC2
18.9%17.5%+1.4 pts0.16 / 0.190.84974 / 7,003Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Le Havre to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC3
6.8%6.5%+0.3 pts0.05 / 0.080.95942 / 899Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-1
91.1%92.5%−1.4 pts0.91 / 0.940.09437 / 947Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-2
70.8%75.5%−4.7 pts0.74 / 0.770.26946 / 446Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-3
44.6%50.5%−5.9 pts0.49 / 0.520.51937 / 444Comparable
seen 24 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-4
23.4%28.5%−5.1 pts0.27 / 0.300.73945 / 6,369Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-5
10.3%13.0%−2.7 pts0.11 / 0.150.89953 / 940Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-6
3.9%5.0%−1.1 pts0.04 / 0.060.96508 / 218Comparable
seen 24 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:05:11.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home38.5%38.1% – 40.1%40.8%2.45940.8%+2.3 pts
1x2:draw28.1%26.4% – 28.5%29.4%3.40927.8%−0.3 pts
1x2:away33.4%32.8% – 33.5%35.1%2.85931.4%−2.0 pts

9 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:29.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.550.8%50.0% – 51.5%52.4%1.91744.6%−6.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.549.2%48.5% – 50.0%51.8%1.93755.4%+6.2 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:29.

Every bookmaker page used (16)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.92 · draw 3.42 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.75 · draw 3.50 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.86 · draw 3.35 · home 2.4911/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBOMatch winneraway 2.64 · draw 3.10 · home 2.3211/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
William HillMatch winneraway 2.80 · draw 3.25 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Match winneraway 2.80 · draw 3.30 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.85 · draw 3.40 · home 2.4911/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.00 · draw 3.51 · home 2.5211/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.85 · draw 3.40 · home 2.4711/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.88 · under 2.5 1.9411/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.80 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.88 · under 2.5 1.9511/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.9311/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.94 · under 2.5 2.0011/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.93 · under 2.5 1.9311/10/2026, 11:37:2911/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:05:11.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:21 (Last checked 2 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Le Havreok11/10/2026, 11:37:20 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Auxerreok11/10/2026, 11:37:19 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home40.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw27.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away31.4%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x68.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x259.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1272.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes50.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no49.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.591.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.58.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.570.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.529.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.544.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.555.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.523.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.576.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.510.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.589.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.53.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.596.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.573.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.526.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.538.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.561.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.514.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.585.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.567.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.532.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.531.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.568.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.510.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.589.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.56.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.593.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.518.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.581.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.540.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.559.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.568.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.531.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.587.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.512.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.596.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.53.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home56.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away43.4%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 493 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:05:11