Ligue 1·Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT

Le MansvToulouse

Le Mans

41%

Draw

23%

Toulouse

36%

Got%OnIt gives Le Mans a 41% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: Le Mans has little or no Ligue 1 history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Le Mans and 1.6 for Toulouse.
Le Mans won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 a game.
Toulouse won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

Le Mans has little or no Ligue 1 history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Le Mans are 13th of 18 after 6 games; Toulouse are 14th.
Le Mans have won 1 and lost 2; Toulouse have won 1 and lost 2.

Recent matches the model used

Le Mans

L1–3at Paris Saint Germain10 Oct
W2–1v Lorient19 Sept
D2–2v Lens13 Sept
D1–1at Nice5 Sept
L2–3at Rennes30 Aug
D2–2v Stade Brestois 2922 Aug

Toulouse

D2–2at Monaco10 Oct
W3–2v Le Havre19 Sept
D2–2at Lorient12 Sept
L0–1v Lille3 Sept
D2–2at Stade Brestois 2929 Aug
L0–2v Lyon22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT; snapshot 400, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-16T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDT970 finished Ligue 1 matches (966 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:15:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Toulouse)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Le Mans)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 19:32 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationLe Mans 6 d rest · Toulouse 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Le Mans

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Auxerre +8.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptL1H LorientW 2–1counted as workload
Sat 10 OctL1A Paris Saint GermainL 1–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 25 OctL1A Auxerre+8.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 0 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79.3 CONFIRMED

Le Mans: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
N. Boissé	D	90	90	—
H. Voyer	D	90	270	90' Martinique, 13.8 d before; 90' Martinique, 10.9 d before
A. Lauray	M	72	72	—
L. Mafouta	F	72	72	—
N. Kocik	G	90	90	—
R. Bamba	M	90	90	—
H. Diallo	F	45	45	—
L. Bretelle	M	90	90	—
S. Yohou	D	90	90	—
L. Calodat	M	77	77	—
J. Vercruysse	M	66	66	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 180 minutes — H. Voyer (90' Martinique, 13.8 d before; 90' Martinique, 10.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Toulouse

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 H Estac Troyes +7.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptL1H Le HavreW 3–2counted as workload
Sat 10 OctL1A MonacoD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctL1H Estac Troyes+7.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 41 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: R. Nicolaisen (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 81.9 CONFIRMED

Toulouse: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
A. Vossah · regular	M	84	84	—
C. Tengstedt	M	84	84	—
T. Jørgensen	M	90	90	0' Denmark, 12 d before
C. Cásseres · regular	M	90	90	—
M. McKenzie · regular	D	90	90	—
S. Koumbassa	D	90	90	—
R. Messali	D	77	77	—
G. Restes · regular	G	90	180	0' France, 14 d before; 90' France, 11 d before
J. Russell-Rowe · regular	F	45	45	—
Y. Azizi	M	71	71	—
C. Tapé	D	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — G. Restes (0' France, 14 d before; 90' France, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Le Mans	41%	32%	32%
Draw	23%	27%	28%
Toulouse	36%	40%	41%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 5 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Le Mans a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (41% vs 32%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence6 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Le Mans

Le Mans: 6 finished matches (6 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.7 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 100%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 83%.

L1–3at Paris Saint Germain10 Oct · in model evidence
W2–1v Lorient19 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2v Lens13 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1at Nice5 Sept · in model evidence
L2–3at Rennes30 Aug · in model evidence
D2–2v Stade Brestois 2922 Aug · in model evidence

Toulouse

Toulouse: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.7 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 80%.

D2–2at Monaco10 Oct · in model evidence
W3–2v Le Havre19 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2at Lorient12 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1v Lille3 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2at Stade Brestois 2929 Aug · in model evidence
L0–2v Lyon22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	4%
1 goal	12%
2 goals	20%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	18%
5 goals	12%
6 or more	12%
Over 1.5	85%
Over 2.5	65%
Over 3.5	43%
Both teams score	66%

Le Mans

Expected goals	1.74
Scores at least once	82%
Scores 2 or more	52%
Clean sheet	20%

Toulouse

Expected goals	1.60
Scores at least once	80%
Scores 2 or more	48%
Clean sheet	18%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 22 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season13th v 14th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Le Mans

13th of 18 · 6 pts · W1 D3 L2 from 6 games · scored 10, conceded 12

Home W1 D2 L0 (scored 6, conceded 5) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games LWDDL (most recent last)

Toulouse

14th of 18 · 6 pts · W1 D3 L2 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 11

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 3, conceded 5) · Away W0 D3 L0 (scored 6, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games DWDLD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 8 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Le Mans to win (90 minutes)

41%

32%

YES on Le Mans to WinLe Mans wins in 90 minutes

41%32¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 55 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Toulouse to win (90 minutes)

36%

41%

YES on Toulouse to WinToulouse wins in 90 minutes

36%41¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,177 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

23%

28%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

23%28¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,278 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawLe Mans or Toulouse wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

77%73¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 64 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Toulouse to WinLe Mans wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

64%60¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,009 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Le Mans to WinToulouse wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

59%69¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 860 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

96%

94%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

96%95¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8,418 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

4%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 451 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

85%

78%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

85%79¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 622 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

15%23¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 419 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

65%

54%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

65%55¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

35%47¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 642 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

43%

31%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

43%32¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

57%70¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 886 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

24%

16%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

24%17¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,119 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

76%85¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 416 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

12%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

12%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 505 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

88%95¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 883 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

66%

59%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

66%60¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,416 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

34%43¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 423 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Winning margin

Le Mans to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

22%

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Le Mans to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLe Mans wins by 2 goals or more

22%15¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,019 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Le Mans to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsToulouse wins or the match is drawn, or Le Mans wins by 1 goal · Le Mans not by 2+ goals

78%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Le Mans to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Le Mans to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLe Mans wins by 3 goals or more

9%7¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 52 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Le Mans to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsToulouse wins or the match is drawn, or Le Mans wins by 2 goals or fewer · Le Mans not by 3+ goals

91%97¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 857 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Toulouse to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

18%

20%

Limited evidence

YES on Toulouse to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsToulouse wins by 2 goals or more

18%21¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,019 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Toulouse to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLe Mans wins or the match is drawn, or Toulouse wins by 1 goal · Toulouse not by 2+ goals

82%82¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 426 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Toulouse to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Toulouse to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsToulouse wins by 3 goals or more

7%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,532 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Toulouse to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLe Mans wins or the match is drawn, or Toulouse wins by 2 goals or fewer · Toulouse not by 3+ goals

93%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 416 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 41.4% · draw 22.8% · away 35.8%
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.60
Le Mans eligible matches: 6 (6 with xG)
Toulouse eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 970 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:305, 2026:53
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 11:33:51
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: home side has 6 eligible matches; home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 966 of 970 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Ligue 1; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
thin evidence: home side has 6 eligible matches
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
xG stored for 966 of 970 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's home probability is 10% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Le Mans	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Paris Saint Germain	away	1–3	1.49–4.33	L
19 Sept	Lorient	home	2–1	0.92–0.97	W
13 Sept	Lens	home	2–2	2.59–1.62	D
5 Sept	Nice	away	1–1	1.28–1.12	D
30 Aug	Rennes	away	2–3	3.06–3.12	L
22 Aug	Stade Brestois 29	home	2–2	0.67–2.72	D

Toulouse	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Monaco	away	2–2	1.49–1.25	D
19 Sept	Le Havre	home	3–2	1.95–2.34	W
12 Sept	Lorient	away	2–2	1.63–0.93	D
3 Sept	Lille	home	0–1	3.46–1.21	L
29 Aug	Stade Brestois 29	away	2–2	1.14–3.04	D
22 Aug	Lyon	home	0–2	2.77–0.70	L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT16MANTFC-BTTS	65.8%	58.5%	+7.3 pts	0.57 / 0.60	0.43	4,416 / 423	Comparable seen 32 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Le Mans to win (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN	41.4%	31.5%	+9.9 pts	0.31 / 0.32	0.69	55 / 860	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Toulouse to win (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC	35.8%	40.5%	−4.7 pts	0.40 / 0.41	0.60	1,177 / 1,009	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-TIE	22.8%	27.5%	−4.7 pts	0.27 / 0.28	0.73	3,278 / 64	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Le Mans to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN2	21.6%	13.5%	+8.1 pts	0.12 / 0.15	0.88	1,019 / 25	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Le Mans to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN3	9.2%	5.0%	+4.2 pts	0.03 / 0.07	0.97	52 / 857	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Toulouse to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC2	17.6%	19.5%	−1.9 pts	0.18 / 0.21	0.82	1,019 / 426	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Toulouse to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC3	7.0%	8.0%	−1.0 pts	0.07 / 0.09	0.93	1,532 / 416	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-1	96.4%	94.0%	+2.4 pts	0.93 / 0.95	0.07	8,418 / 451	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-2	84.6%	78.0%	+6.6 pts	0.77 / 0.79	0.23	622 / 419	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-3	64.8%	54.0%	+10.8 pts	0.53 / 0.55	0.47	500 / 642	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-4	42.8%	31.0%	+11.8 pts	0.30 / 0.32	0.70	0 / 886	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-5	24.4%	16.0%	+8.4 pts	0.15 / 0.17	0.85	1,119 / 416	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-6	12.2%	6.0%	+6.2 pts	0.05 / 0.07	0.95	505 / 883	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:04:28.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	32.3%	31.9% – 32.9%	34.4%	2.90	10	41.4%	+9.1 pts
1x2:draw	27.4%	26.5% – 27.8%	28.8%	3.48	10	22.8%	−4.6 pts
1x2:away	40.4%	39.5% – 41.3%	43.1%	2.32	10	35.8%	−4.6 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:23.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	53.6%	53.5% – 54.8%	56.2%	1.78	7	64.8%	+11.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	46.4%	45.2% – 46.5%	48.5%	2.06	7	35.2%	−11.2 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:24.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 2.38 · draw 3.45 · home 3.00	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betfair	Match winner	away 2.25 · draw 3.50 · home 2.88	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 2.41 · draw 3.44 · home 2.91	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBO	Match winner	away 2.19 · draw 3.21 · home 2.77	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
William Hill	Match winner	away 2.30 · draw 3.30 · home 2.80	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365	Match winner	away 2.30 · draw 3.50 · home 2.90	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Dafabet	Match winner	away 2.34 · draw 3.55 · home 2.95	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBet	Match winner	away 2.45 · draw 3.54 · home 3.08	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betano	Match winner	away 2.35 · draw 3.50 · home 2.95	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictor	Match winner	away 2.30 · draw 3.40 · home 2.80	11/10/2026, 11:37:23	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.78 · under 2.5 2.06	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.00	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.78 · under 2.5 2.06	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.84 · under 2.5 2.12	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.78 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.71 · under 2.5 1.98	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:04:28.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:02 (Last checked 22 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Le Mans	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:21 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Toulouse	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:18 (Last checked 8 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	41.4%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	22.8%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	35.8%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	64.2%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	58.6%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	77.2%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	65.8%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	34.2%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	96.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	3.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	84.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	15.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	64.8%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	35.2%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	42.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	57.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	24.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	75.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	12.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	87.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	82.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	17.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	51.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	48.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	25.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	74.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	9.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	90.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	79.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	20.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	47.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	52.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	21.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	78.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	7.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	92.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	9.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	90.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	21.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	78.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	41.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	58.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	64.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	35.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	82.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	17.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	93.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	7.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	53.6%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	46.4%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 400 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:04:28