Ligue 1·Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT

LillevStade Brestois 29

Lille

55%

Draw

24%

Stade Brestois 29

22%

Got%OnIt gives Lille a 55% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Lille and 1.0 for Stade Brestois 29.
Lille won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 a game.
Stade Brestois 29 won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Lille are 2nd of 18 after 6 games; Stade Brestois 29 are 7th.
Lille have won 4 and lost 1; Stade Brestois 29 have won 2 and lost 2.

Recent matches the model used

Lille

W1–0v Le Havre10 Oct
L1–2at Nice20 Sept
W2–0v Estac Troyes13 Sept
W1–0at Toulouse3 Sept
D2–2v Paris Saint Germain28 Aug
W2–0at Angers23 Aug

Stade Brestois 29

W5–1v Angers10 Oct
L1–2at Auxerre20 Sept
L0–1v Paris Saint Germain13 Sept
W2–1at Le Havre5 Sept
D2–2v Toulouse29 Aug
D2–2at Le Mans22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 577, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lille)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Stade Brestois 29)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:39 PDT971 finished Ligue 1 matches (967 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationLille 4.0 d rest (short) · Stade Brestois 29 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Lille

4 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Galatasaray +3.9 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −4 d before (A Arsenal); UEFA Champions League +3.9 d after (H Galatasaray) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptL1A NiceL 1–2counted as workload
Sat 10 OctL1H Le HavreW 1–0counted as workload
Tue 13 OctUCLA ArsenalNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctUCLH Galatasaray+3.9 d
Sun 25 OctL1A Monaco+7.8 d
Fri 30 OctL1H Lens+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: N. Ngoy (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Lille: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Alexsandro Ribeiro · regular	D	90	—
M. Kjærgaard	M	90	—
O. Giroud	F	57	—
N. Bentaleb · regular	M	90	—
B. Özer · regular	G	90	—
Tiago Santos · regular	D	22	—
R. Perraud · regular	D	73	—
D. Bakwa	M	90	—
N. Mukau · regular	M	73	—
G. Perrin	M	57	—
T. Nianzou	D	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — H. Haraldsson (90' Iceland, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Stade Brestois 29

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 H Nice +6 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptL1A AuxerreL 1–2counted as workload
Sat 10 OctL1H AngersW 5–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Fri 23 OctL1H Nice+6 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 38 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: R. Le Guen (D) — reason unknown; R. Del Castillo (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.5 CONFIRMED

Stade Brestois 29: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
J. Chotard · regular	M	79	79	—
K. Doumbia · regular	M	79	79	—
L. Ajorque · regular	F	86	86	—
G. Lloris	D	90	90	—
K. Lala · regular	D	90	90	—
E. Selvik	G	90	180	90' Norway, 13 d before
H. Magnetti · regular	M	90	90	—
L. Tousart	D	90	90	—
B. Locko	D	90	90	—
P. Mboup · regular	M	85	85	—
Mama Baldé	M	61	61	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — E. Selvik (90' Norway, 13 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Lille	55%	56%	54%
Draw	24%	24%	24%
Stade Brestois 29	22%	20%	22%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 28 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Lille

Lille: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.2 and conceded 0.7 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 60%.
Both teams scored in 30%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 20%.

W1–0v Le Havre10 Oct · in model evidence
L1–2at Nice20 Sept · in model evidence
W2–0v Estac Troyes13 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0at Toulouse3 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2v Paris Saint Germain28 Aug · in model evidence
W2–0at Angers23 Aug · in model evidence

Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.4 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.

W5–1v Angers10 Oct · in model evidence
L1–2at Auxerre20 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1v Paris Saint Germain13 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1at Le Havre5 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2v Toulouse29 Aug · in model evidence
D2–2at Le Mans22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	6%
1 goal	18%
2 goals	24%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	15%
5 goals	8%
6 or more	6%
Over 1.5	76%
Over 2.5	52%
Over 3.5	30%
Both teams score	52%

Lille

Expected goals	1.75
Scores at least once	83%
Scores 2 or more	52%
Clean sheet	36%

Stade Brestois 29

Expected goals	1.01
Scores at least once	64%
Scores 2 or more	27%
Clean sheet	17%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season2nd v 7th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Lille

2nd of 18 · 13 pts · W4 D1 L1 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2) · Away W2 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 4 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games WLWWD (most recent last)

Stade Brestois 29

7th of 18 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L2 from 6 games · scored 12, conceded 9

Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 7, conceded 4) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 5, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games WLLWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 9 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Lille to win (90 minutes)

55%

54%

YES on Lille to WinLille wins in 90 minutes

55%55¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 730 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Stade Brestois 29 to win (90 minutes)

22%

YES on Stade Brestois 29 to WinStade Brestois 29 wins in 90 minutes

22%22¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,723 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

24%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

24%25¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,826 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawLille or Stade Brestois 29 wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

76%77¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 869 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Stade Brestois 29 to WinLille wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

78%79¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,135 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Lille to WinStade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

45%47¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,199 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

94%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

94%95¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

6%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 949 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

76%

79%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

76%80¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 418 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

24%22¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,078 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

52%

56%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

52%58¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,123 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

48%45¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 919 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

30%

34%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

30%35¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 924 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

70%68¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 935 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

15%

18%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

15%19¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,686 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

85%84¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 444 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

6%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 505 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

94%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 666 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

52%

57%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

52%59¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,905 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

48%45¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,629 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Winning margin

Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

30%

31%

Limited evidence

YES on Lille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLille wins by 2 goals or more

30%32¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,774 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Lille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsStade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn, or Lille wins by 1 goal · Lille not by 2+ goals

70%71¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 672 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Lille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLille wins by 3 goals or more

14%15¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,018 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Lille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsStade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn, or Lille wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lille not by 3+ goals

86%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 938 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Stade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsStade Brestois 29 wins by 2 goals or more

8%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,024 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Stade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLille wins or the match is drawn, or Stade Brestois 29 wins by 1 goal · Stade Brestois 29 not by 2+ goals

92%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Stade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsStade Brestois 29 wins by 3 goals or more

2%5¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,139 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Stade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLille wins or the match is drawn, or Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2 goals or fewer · Stade Brestois 29 not by 3+ goals

98%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,074 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 54.6% · draw 23.6% · away 21.8%
Expected goals: 1.75 – 1.01
Lille eligible matches: 108 (108 with xG)
Stade Brestois 29 eligible matches: 108 (108 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 971 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:305, 2026:54
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 967 of 971 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Ligue 1; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
xG stored for 967 of 971 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Lille	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Le Havre	home	1–0	1.35–1.34	W
20 Sept	Nice	away	1–2	1.58–1.50	L
13 Sept	Estac Troyes	home	2–0	1.65–0.38	W
3 Sept	Toulouse	away	1–0	1.21–3.46	W
28 Aug	Paris Saint Germain	home	2–2	1.27–1.44	D
23 Aug	Angers	away	2–0	1.24–1.99	W

Stade Brestois 29	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Angers	home	5–1	3.90–1.45	W
20 Sept	Auxerre	away	1–2	0.34–0.96	L
13 Sept	Paris Saint Germain	home	0–1	1.24–1.16	L
5 Sept	Le Havre	away	2–1	2.37–2.02	W
29 Aug	Toulouse	home	2–2	3.04–1.14	D
22 Aug	Le Mans	away	2–2	2.72–0.67	D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17LILSTB-BTTS	52.5%	57.0%	−4.5 pts	0.55 / 0.59	0.45	1,905 / 3,629	Comparable seen 28 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Lille to win (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL	54.6%	54.0%	+0.6 pts	0.53 / 0.55	0.47	730 / 3,199	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Stade Brestois 29 to win (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-STB	21.8%	21.5%	+0.3 pts	0.21 / 0.22	0.79	2,723 / 1,135	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-TIE	23.6%	24.0%	−0.4 pts	0.23 / 0.25	0.77	5,826 / 869	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL2	30.4%	30.5%	−0.1 pts	0.29 / 0.32	0.71	1,774 / 672	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL3	13.6%	13.5%	+0.1 pts	0.12 / 0.15	0.88	1,018 / 938	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-STB2	7.8%	7.5%	+0.3 pts	0.06 / 0.09	0.94	1,024 / 25	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-STB3	2.1%	3.0%	−0.9 pts	0.01 / 0.05	0.99	1,139 / 1,074	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-1	93.6%	94.0%	−0.4 pts	0.93 / 0.95	0.07	2 / 949	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-2	76.1%	79.0%	−2.9 pts	0.78 / 0.80	0.22	418 / 1,078	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-3	52.0%	56.5%	−4.5 pts	0.55 / 0.58	0.45	1,123 / 919	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-4	29.8%	33.5%	−3.7 pts	0.32 / 0.35	0.68	924 / 935	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-5	14.6%	17.5%	−2.9 pts	0.16 / 0.19	0.84	1,686 / 444	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-6	6.1%	7.0%	−0.9 pts	0.06 / 0.08	0.94	505 / 666	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:05:54.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	55.5%	54.8% – 57.3%	59.5%	1.68	10	54.6%	−0.9 pts
1x2:draw	24.0%	23.2% – 24.5%	25.4%	3.94	10	23.6%	−0.4 pts
1x2:away	20.2%	19.5% – 20.8%	21.5%	4.65	10	21.8%	+1.6 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:26.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	55.6%	54.8% – 56.0%	58.5%	1.71	7	52.0%	−3.6 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	44.4%	44.0% – 45.2%	47.2%	2.12	7	48.0%	+3.6 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:26.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 4.90 · draw 4.10 · home 1.68	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betfair	Match winner	away 4.75 · draw 4.00 · home 1.62	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 4.79 · draw 3.98 · home 1.68	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBO	Match winner	away 4.29 · draw 3.62 · home 1.61	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
William Hill	Match winner	away 4.60 · draw 3.80 · home 1.67	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365	Match winner	away 4.50 · draw 3.80 · home 1.70	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Dafabet	Match winner	away 4.60 · draw 4.00 · home 1.73	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBet	Match winner	away 5.03 · draw 4.21 · home 1.73	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betano	Match winner	away 4.70 · draw 3.90 · home 1.72	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictor	Match winner	away 4.50 · draw 3.80 · home 1.65	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.71 · under 2.5 2.16	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.71 · under 2.5 2.14	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.76 · under 2.5 2.23	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 2.12	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.04	11/10/2026, 11:37:26	11/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:05:54.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:10 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 9 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Lille	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:16 (Last checked 9 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Stade Brestois 29	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:19 (Last checked 9 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	54.6%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	23.6%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	21.8%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	78.2%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	45.4%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	76.4%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	52.5%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	47.5%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	93.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	6.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	76.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	23.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	52.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	48.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	29.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	70.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	14.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	85.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	6.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	93.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	82.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	17.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	52.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	47.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	25.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	74.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	10.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	90.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	63.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	36.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	26.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	73.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	8.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	91.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	2.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	98.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	13.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	86.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	30.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	69.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	54.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	45.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	78.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	21.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	92.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	7.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	97.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	2.1%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	71.5%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	28.5%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 577 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:05:54