Got%OnIt
Matches
Ligue 1·Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT

LyonvNice

Lyon
55%
Draw
23%
Nice
22%

Got%OnIt gives Lyon a 55% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.8 goals for Lyon and 1.1 for Nice.
  • Lyon won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 a game.
  • Nice won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Lyon are 4th of 18 after 6 games; Nice are 9th.
  • Lyon have won 3 and lost 1; Nice have won 2 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Lyon

  • L1–2at Lens9 Oct
  • W4–0v Rennes19 Sept
  • D0–0at Paris FC12 Sept
  • W3–1v Auxerre4 Sept
  • D1–1v Le Havre29 Aug
  • W2–0at Toulouse22 Aug

Nice

  • W2–1v Strasbourg11 Oct
  • W2–1v Lille20 Sept
  • L0–1at Auxerre12 Sept
  • D1–1v Le Mans5 Sept
  • L0–3at Paris FC30 Aug
  • D0–0v Lorient22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT; snapshot 430, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDT970 finished Ligue 1 matches (966 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:15:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lyon)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Nice)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLyon 3.1 d rest (short) · Nice 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Lyon

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A 1899 Hoffenheim +4 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −3.1 d before (H Crystal Palace); UEFA Europa League +4 d after (A 1899 Hoffenheim) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptL1H RennesW 4–0counted as workload
  • Fri 9 OctL1A LensL 1–2counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELH Crystal PalaceNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELA 1899 Hoffenheim+4 d
  • Sun 25 OctL1A Paris Saint Germain+7 d
  • Sat 31 OctL1H Angers+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 56 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Niakhate (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Lyon: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
L. Openda · regularF0633' Belgium, 13 d before
E. Nuamah · regularM071—
M. BidstrupM0600' Denmark, 14 d before
Abner · regularD090—
R. KluivertD090—
D. Greif · regularG018090' Slovakia, 12 d before
Z. AthekameD011020' Switzerland, 12 d before
C. Tolisso · regularM090—
P. ŠulcM016890' Czechia, 12 d before
T. Morton · regularM077—
F. BacherD090—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 203 minutes — L. Openda (3' Belgium, 13 d before); D. Greif (90' Slovakia, 12 d before); Z. Athekame (20' Switzerland, 12 d before); P. Šulc (90' Czechia, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

Nice

7.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Stade Brestois 29 +5 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptL1H LilleW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctL1H StrasbourgW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctL1A Stade Brestois 29+5 d
  • Sat 31 OctL1H Rennes+12.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Mendy (D) — reason unknown; M. Bard (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Nice: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. Wahi · regularF073—
Y. NdayishimiyeD090—
Mohamed AbdelmonemD090—
Y. Diouf · regularG090—
X. Mandza TsiendiD090—
J. Clauss · regularM090—
D. Coulibaly · regularM037—
A. WitselM086—
N. NkounkouM090—
M. AmouraM090—
G. HeinM086—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Lyon55%—57%
Draw23%—23%
Nice22%—19%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen moments ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Lyon

  • Lyon: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.9 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L1–2at Lens9 Oct · in model evidence
  • W4–0v Rennes19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Paris FC12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1v Auxerre4 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Le Havre29 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Toulouse22 Aug · in model evidence

Nice

  • Nice: 10 finished matches (8 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • W2–1v Strasbourg11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Lille20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Auxerre12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Le Mans5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Paris FC30 Aug · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Lorient22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal16%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals10%
6 or more8%
Over 1.579%
Over 2.556%
Over 3.534%
Both teams score56%

Lyon

Expected goals1.84
Scores at least once84%
Scores 2 or more55%
Clean sheet34%

Nice

Expected goals1.08
Scores at least once66%
Scores 2 or more30%
Clean sheet16%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 23 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 9th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Lyon

4th of 18 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L1 from 6 games · scored 11, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 8, conceded 2) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games LWDWD (most recent last)

Nice

9th of 18 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L2 from 6 games · scored 5, conceded 7

Home W2 D2 L0 (scored 5, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 0, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games WWLDL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 8 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Nice to win (90 minutes)
22%
19%
YES on Nice to WinNice wins in 90 minutes
22%20¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,156 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Lyon to win (90 minutes)
55%
57%
YES on Lyon to WinLyon wins in 90 minutes
55%58¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 119 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
23%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
23%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,250 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawLyon or Nice wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
77%78¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 754 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Nice to WinLyon wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
78%82¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,389 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Lyon to WinNice wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
45%43¢
Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote just now

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%95¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 200 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
79%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
79%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 919 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
21%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 200 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
56%
57%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
56%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,115 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
44%44¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 609 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
34%
35%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
34%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 708 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
66%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 610 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
17%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
17%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 703 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
83%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 410 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
8%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 705 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
92%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 410 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
56%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
56%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,218 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
44%45¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 915 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Winning margin
Nice to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Nice to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNice wins by 2 goals or more
8%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 705 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Nice to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLyon wins or the match is drawn, or Nice wins by 1 goal · Nice not by 2+ goals
92%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 954 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Nice to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Nice to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNice wins by 3 goals or more
2%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 506 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Nice to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLyon wins or the match is drawn, or Nice wins by 2 goals or fewer · Nice not by 3+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Lyon to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
31%
34%
Limited evidence
YES on Lyon to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLyon wins by 2 goals or more
31%35¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,114 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Lyon to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNice wins or the match is drawn, or Lyon wins by 1 goal · Lyon not by 2+ goals
69%68¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Lyon to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
15%
15%
Limited evidence
YES on Lyon to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLyon wins by 3 goals or more
15%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 503 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Lyon to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNice wins or the match is drawn, or Lyon wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lyon not by 3+ goals
85%86¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 55.0% · draw 22.8% · away 22.2%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.08
Lyon eligible matches
108 (108 with xG)
Nice eligible matches
108 (108 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
970 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:305, 2026:53
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 11:33:51
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 966 of 970 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Ligue 1; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
  • xG stored for 966 of 970 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

LyonOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 OctLensaway1–21.05–1.38L
19 SeptRenneshome4–03.13–1.37W
12 SeptParis FCaway0–00.50–0.30D
4 SeptAuxerrehome3–12.85–0.71W
29 AugLe Havrehome1–11.75–0.69D
22 AugToulouseaway2–00.70–2.77W
NiceOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctStrasbourghome2–11.34–0.56W
20 SeptLillehome2–11.50–1.58W
12 SeptAuxerreaway0–11.08–1.74L
5 SeptLe Manshome1–11.12–1.28D
30 AugParis FCaway0–30.78–2.38L
22 AugLorienthome0–01.05–1.28D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18OLNIC-BTTS
55.7%56.5%−0.8 pts0.55 / 0.580.455,218 / 915Comparable
seen moments ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Nice to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC
22.2%19.0%+3.2 pts0.18 / 0.200.823,156 / 1,389Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Lyon to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-OL
55.0%57.5%−2.5 pts0.57 / 0.580.43119 / 1Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-TIE
22.8%23.0%−0.2 pts0.22 / 0.240.786,250 / 754Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Nice to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC2
8.3%6.0%+2.3 pts0.05 / 0.070.95705 / 954Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Nice to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC3
2.4%3.0%−0.6 pts0.01 / 0.050.99506 / 300Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lyon to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-OL2
31.4%33.5%−2.1 pts0.32 / 0.350.681,114 / 25Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lyon to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-OL3
14.5%15.0%−0.5 pts0.14 / 0.160.86503 / 25Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-1
94.6%94.5%+0.1 pts0.94 / 0.950.062 / 200Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-2
78.9%81.0%−2.1 pts0.80 / 0.820.20919 / 200Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-3
55.9%57.5%−1.6 pts0.56 / 0.590.441,115 / 609Comparable
seen moments ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-4
33.6%35.0%−1.4 pts0.34 / 0.360.66708 / 610Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-5
17.2%17.5%−0.3 pts0.17 / 0.180.83703 / 410Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-6
7.6%7.5%+0.1 pts0.07 / 0.080.93705 / 410Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:05:30.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
55.0%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
22.8%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
22.2%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
55.9%—
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
44.1%—

No pages observed.

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:05:30.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:28 (Last checked 23 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Lyonok11/10/2026, 11:37:16 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Niceok11/10/2026, 11:37:17 (Last checked 8 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home55.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw22.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away22.2%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x77.8%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x245.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1277.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes55.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no44.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.578.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.521.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.555.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.544.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.533.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.566.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.517.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.582.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.57.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.592.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.584.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.515.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.554.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.545.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.528.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.572.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.511.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.588.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.566.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.533.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.529.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.570.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.59.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.590.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.514.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.585.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.531.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.568.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.555.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.545.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.577.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.522.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.597.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home71.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away28.7%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 430 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:05:30