Ligue 1·Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT

Paris FCvRennes

Paris FC

44%

Draw

24%

Rennes

32%

Got%OnIt gives Paris FC a 44% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.6 goals for Paris FC and 1.4 for Rennes.
Paris FC won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 a game.
Rennes won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Paris FC are 5th of 18 after 6 games; Rennes are 3rd.
Paris FC have won 3 and lost 1; Rennes have won 4 and lost 1.

Recent matches the model used

Paris FC

L0–1at Lorient10 Oct
W2–1v Strasbourg19 Sept
D0–0v Lyon12 Sept
W3–2at Marseille6 Sept
W3–0v Nice30 Aug
D0–0at Estac Troyes22 Aug

Rennes

W4–1v Auxerre11 Oct
L0–4at Lyon19 Sept
W1–0v Marseille11 Sept
W2–1at Angers6 Sept
W3–2v Le Mans30 Aug
D2–2v Paris Saint Germain23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 607, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T15:15:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Rennes)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Paris FC)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:39 PDT971 finished Ligue 1 matches (967 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationParis FC 8 d rest · Rennes 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Paris FC

7.9 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Lens +6.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptL1H StrasbourgW 2–1counted as workload
Sat 10 OctL1A LorientL 0–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctL1A Lens+6.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 40 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Paris FC: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
M. Lopez	M	90	—
D. Coppola · regular	D	90	—
P. Lees-Melou · regular	M	78	—
P. Pagis	M	90	—
H. Traoré · regular	D	90	—
L. Sinayoko	F	86	—
L. Koleosho · regular	M	90	—
K. Trapp · regular	G	90	—
A. Camara · regular	D	65	—
I. Kebbal · regular	M	65	—
S. Chergui	D	66	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Rennes

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A Juventus +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (H OFI) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptL1A LyonL 0–4counted as workload
Sun 11 OctL1H AuxerreW 4–1counted as workload
Thu 15 OctUELH OFINScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Thu 22 OctUELA Juventus+4.1 d
Sun 25 OctL1H Strasbourg+7 d
Sat 31 OctL1A Nice+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 41 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Q. Merlin (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 83 CONFIRMED

Rennes: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
A. Thomasson	M	67	67	—
B. Reynolds	D	90	90	—
A. Rouault	D	90	90	—
M. Nagida	D	85	85	—
C. Cresswell · regular	D	90	90	—
M. Camara · regular	M	90	90	—
Mousa Tamari · regular	F	67	67	—
I. Soumaré	F	77	77	—
E. Lepaul · regular	F	77	167	90' France, 12.9 d before
V. Rongier · regular	M	90	90	—
B. Samba · regular	G	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 360 minutes — P. Frankowski (90' Poland, 12.9 d before); S. Szymański (90' Poland, 12.9 d before); L. Blas (90' Martinique, 12.7 d before); E. Lepaul (90' France, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Paris FC	44%	41%	41%
Draw	24%	28%	28%
Rennes	32%	31%	30%

Based on 9 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 28 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Paris FC

Paris FC: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.5 and conceded 0.8 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 60%.

L0–1at Lorient10 Oct · in model evidence
W2–1v Strasbourg19 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0v Lyon12 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2at Marseille6 Sept · in model evidence
W3–0v Nice30 Aug · in model evidence
D0–0at Estac Troyes22 Aug · in model evidence

Rennes

Rennes: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.9 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 90%.

W4–1v Auxerre11 Oct · in model evidence
L0–4at Lyon19 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0v Marseille11 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1at Angers6 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2v Le Mans30 Aug · in model evidence
D2–2v Paris Saint Germain23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	5%
1 goal	15%
2 goals	22%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	17%
5 goals	10%
6 or more	9%
Over 1.5	80%
Over 2.5	58%
Over 3.5	36%
Both teams score	60%

Paris FC

Expected goals	1.65
Scores at least once	81%
Scores 2 or more	49%
Clean sheet	25%

Rennes

Expected goals	1.37
Scores at least once	75%
Scores 2 or more	40%
Clean sheet	19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season5th v 3rd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Paris FC

5th of 18 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L1 from 6 games · scored 8, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games LWDWW (most recent last)

Rennes

3rd of 18 · 13 pts · W4 D1 L1 from 6 games · scored 12, conceded 10

Home W3 D1 L0 (scored 10, conceded 5) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WLWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 9 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Paris FC to win (90 minutes)

44%

41%

YES on Paris FC to WinParis FC wins in 90 minutes

44%42¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,000 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Rennes to win (90 minutes)

32%

30%

YES on Rennes to WinRennes wins in 90 minutes

32%31¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,831 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

24%

28%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

24%29¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawParis FC or Rennes wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

76%73¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 796 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Rennes to WinParis FC wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

68%71¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 441 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Paris FC to WinRennes wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

56%60¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 424 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

95%

94%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

95%95¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

5%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 929 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

80%

81%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

80%82¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 924 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

20%21¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 427 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

58%

57%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

58%58¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

42%44¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 648 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

36%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

36%37¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 926 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

64%66¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 900 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

19%

18%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

19%19¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 503 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

81%83¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 644 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

9%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 505 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

91%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 212 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

60%

63%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

60%64¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 889 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

40%39¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 430 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Winning margin

Paris FC to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

23%

21%

Limited evidence

YES on Paris FC to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsParis FC wins by 2 goals or more

23%22¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 930 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Paris FC to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRennes wins or the match is drawn, or Paris FC wins by 1 goal · Paris FC not by 2+ goals

77%81¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 655 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Paris FC to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Paris FC to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsParis FC wins by 3 goals or more

9%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 929 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Paris FC to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRennes wins or the match is drawn, or Paris FC wins by 2 goals or fewer · Paris FC not by 3+ goals

91%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 29 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Rennes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

14%

13%

Limited evidence

YES on Rennes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRennes wins by 2 goals or more

14%14¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 931 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Rennes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsParis FC wins or the match is drawn, or Rennes wins by 1 goal · Rennes not by 2+ goals

86%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 26 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Rennes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Rennes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRennes wins by 3 goals or more

5%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 798 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Rennes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsParis FC wins or the match is drawn, or Rennes wins by 2 goals or fewer · Rennes not by 3+ goals

95%97¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,468 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 44.0% · draw 24.0% · away 32.0%
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.37
Paris FC eligible matches: 40 (39 with xG)
Rennes eligible matches: 108 (108 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 971 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:305, 2026:54
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 967 of 971 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Ligue 1; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
xG stored for 967 of 971 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Paris FC	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Lorient	away	0–1	0.99–0.60	L
19 Sept	Strasbourg	home	2–1	—	W
12 Sept	Lyon	home	0–0	0.30–0.50	D
6 Sept	Marseille	away	3–2	3.29–1.42	W
30 Aug	Nice	home	3–0	2.38–0.78	W
22 Aug	Estac Troyes	away	0–0	1.80–0.42	D

Rennes	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Auxerre	home	4–1	2.21–1.51	W
19 Sept	Lyon	away	0–4	1.37–3.13	L
11 Sept	Marseille	home	1–0	1.88–1.34	W
6 Sept	Angers	away	2–1	1.54–1.66	W
30 Aug	Le Mans	home	3–2	3.12–3.06	W
23 Aug	Paris Saint Germain	home	2–2	0.87–2.16	D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18PARREN-BTTS	60.3%	62.5%	−2.2 pts	0.61 / 0.64	0.39	889 / 430	Comparable seen 28 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Paris FC to win (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-PAR	44.0%	41.0%	+3.0 pts	0.40 / 0.42	0.60	2,000 / 424	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Rennes to win (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-REN	32.0%	30.0%	+2.0 pts	0.29 / 0.31	0.71	2,831 / 441	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-TIE	24.0%	28.0%	−4.0 pts	0.27 / 0.29	0.73	330 / 796	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Paris FC to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-PAR2	22.8%	20.5%	+2.3 pts	0.19 / 0.22	0.81	930 / 655	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Paris FC to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-PAR3	9.5%	8.5%	+1.0 pts	0.07 / 0.10	0.93	929 / 29	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Rennes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-REN2	14.3%	13.0%	+1.3 pts	0.12 / 0.14	0.88	931 / 26	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Rennes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-REN3	5.1%	6.0%	−0.9 pts	0.03 / 0.09	0.97	798 / 1,468	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-1	95.1%	94.0%	+1.1 pts	0.93 / 0.95	0.07	2 / 929	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-2	80.4%	80.5%	−0.1 pts	0.79 / 0.82	0.21	924 / 427	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-3	58.1%	57.0%	+1.1 pts	0.56 / 0.58	0.44	500 / 648	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-4	35.7%	35.5%	+0.2 pts	0.34 / 0.37	0.66	926 / 900	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-5	18.8%	18.0%	+0.8 pts	0.17 / 0.19	0.83	503 / 644	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-6	8.6%	8.0%	+0.6 pts	0.07 / 0.09	0.93	505 / 212	Comparable seen 28 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:05:24.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	41.4%	40.0% – 41.7%	43.5%	2.30	9	44.0%	+2.6 pts
1x2:draw	27.6%	26.0% – 29.5%	29.0%	3.45	9	24.0%	−3.7 pts
1x2:away	31.3%	29.9% – 33.1%	33.3%	3.00	9	32.0%	+0.7 pts

9 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:30.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	57.2%	56.6% – 58.9%	59.9%	1.67	6	58.1%	+0.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	42.8%	41.1% – 43.4%	44.9%	2.23	6	41.9%	−0.9 pts

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:31.

Every bookmaker page used (15)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 3.20 · draw 3.36 · home 2.31	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betfair	Match winner	away 2.80 · draw 3.50 · home 2.30	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 3.19 · draw 3.23 · home 2.35	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBO	Match winner	away 2.68 · draw 3.28 · home 2.21	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
William Hill	Match winner	away 3.00 · draw 3.30 · home 2.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365	Match winner	away 2.90 · draw 3.60 · home 2.25	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Dafabet	Match winner	away 3.00 · draw 3.55 · home 2.30	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBet	Match winner	away 3.28 · draw 3.45 · home 2.37	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betano	Match winner	away 3.05 · draw 3.45 · home 2.32	11/10/2026, 11:37:30	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.61 · under 2.5 2.15	11/10/2026, 11:37:31	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.25	11/10/2026, 11:37:31	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.23	11/10/2026, 11:37:31	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:31	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.72 · under 2.5 2.30	11/10/2026, 11:37:31	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.70 · under 2.5 2.22	11/10/2026, 11:37:31	11/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:05:24.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:26 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 9 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Paris FC	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:20 (Last checked 9 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Rennes	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:18 (Last checked 9 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	44.0%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	24.0%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	32.0%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	68.0%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	56.0%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	76.0%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	60.3%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	39.7%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	95.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	4.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	80.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	19.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	58.1%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	41.9%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	35.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	64.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	18.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	81.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	8.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	91.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	80.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	19.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	49.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	51.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	22.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	77.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	8.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	91.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	74.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	25.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	39.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	60.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	16.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	84.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	5.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	94.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	9.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	90.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	22.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	77.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	44.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	56.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	68.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	32.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	85.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	14.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	94.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	5.1%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	57.9%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	42.1%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 607 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:05:24