Got%OnIt
Matches
Premier League·Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT

CoventryvNewcastle

Coventry
23%
Draw
24%
Newcastle
52%

Got%OnIt gives Newcastle a 52% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Worth knowing: Coventry has little or no Premier League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.0 goals for Coventry and 1.7 for Newcastle.
  • Coventry won 1 of the 5 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.2 and conceding 2.0 a game.
  • Newcastle won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Coventry has little or no Premier League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Coventry are 19th of 20 after 5 games; Newcastle are 11th.
  • Coventry have won 1 and lost 4; Newcastle have won 2 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Coventry

  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest19 Sept
  • L0–5v Brighton13 Sept
  • L0–1at Manchester City5 Sept
  • L0–1v Hull City29 Aug
  • L0–3at Arsenal21 Aug

Newcastle

  • W2–1v Hull City19 Sept
  • L1–4at Leeds14 Sept
  • D2–2v Bournemouth5 Sept
  • W2–0at Tottenham29 Aug
  • D2–2v Liverpool23 Aug
  • L0–2at Fulham24 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 531, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Newcastle)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Coventry)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:22 PDT1199 finished Premier League matches (1199 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationCoventry 23 d rest · Newcastle 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Coventry

23.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Tottenham +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 13 SeptPLH BrightonL 0–5counted as workload
  • Wed 16 SeptEFLH Aston VillaL 1–3counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptPLA Nottingham ForestW 1–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Mon 19 OctPLA Tottenham+7 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLH Fulham+11.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 8 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 1 regular CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 8 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Coventry: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. GrimesM00—
J. DasilvaM018090' Wales, 11 d before; 90' Wales, 8 d before
C. RushworthG00—
F. OnyekaM00—
E. PinnockD00—
B. Thomas-AsanteF00—
S. MfuniD00—
C. YirenkyiM00—
B. Thomas · regularD00—
J. RudoniF00—
E. Mason-ClarkF00—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 354 minutes — J. Dasilva (90' Wales, 11 d before; 90' Wales, 8 d before); J. Latibeaudiere (90' Jamaica, 13.8 d before; 84' Jamaica, 9.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Newcastle

23.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Aston Villa +4.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 14 SeptPLA LeedsL 1–4counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptPLH Hull CityW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctPLH Aston Villa+4.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLA Crystal Palace+12.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Dedic (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 14.7 CONFIRMED

Newcastle: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. Murphy · regularM00—
Y. WissaM00—
M. Fernandez-PardoF000' Belgium, 7 d before
L. MileyD00—
S. Botman · regularD00—
L. Hall · regularD7224190' England, 13 d before; 79' England, 9.1 d before; 72' England, 6 d before
S. SteurM00—
J. Willock · regularM00—
H. Barnes · regularM00—
M. Thiaw · regularD018090' Germany, 11 d before; 90' Germany, 8 d before
L. HornicekG90900' Czechia, 13 d before; 0' Czechia, 9 d before; 90' Czechia, 6 d before

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 511 minutes — L. Hall (90' England, 13 d before; 79' England, 9.1 d before; 72' England, 6 d before); M. Thiaw (90' Germany, 11 d before; 90' Germany, 8 d before); L. Hornicek (0' Czechia, 13 d before; 0' Czechia, 9 d before; 90' Czechia, 6 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Coventry

  • A. Amenda · injury / absence: Calf Injury · Missing Fixture
  • H. Wright · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Eccles · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Latibeaudiere · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
  • K. Kesler-Hayden · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • L. Woolfenden · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • T. Awoniyi · suspension: Red Card · Missing Fixture

Newcastle

  • A. Elanga · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • D. Burn · injury / absence: Ankle Injury · Questionable
  • E. Jaouen · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Ramsey · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
  • Joelinton · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Questionable
  • V. Livramento · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
  • W. Osula · injury / absence: Foot Injury · Questionable

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Coventry23%30%30%
Draw24%27%27%
Newcastle52%43%44%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 26 h before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 2 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Newcastle a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (52% vs 43%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence5 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Coventry

  • Coventry: 5 finished matches (5 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.2 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 20%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 0%; over 1.5 goals in 40%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–5v Brighton13 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Manchester City5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Hull City29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Arsenal21 Aug · in model evidence

Newcastle

  • Newcastle: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W2–1v Hull City19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at Leeds14 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Bournemouth5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Tottenham29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Liverpool23 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Fulham24 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more6%
Over 1.575%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Both teams score52%

Coventry

Expected goals1.03
Scores at least once64%
Scores 2 or more27%
Clean sheet19%

Newcastle

Expected goals1.67
Scores at least once81%
Scores 2 or more50%
Clean sheet36%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability14 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

14 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 25 min ago.

Coventry

  • A. AmendaOutCalf Injury
  • H. WrightOutMuscle Injury
  • J. EcclesOutInjury
  • J. LatibeaudiereDoubtfulInjury
  • K. Kesler-HaydenDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • L. WoolfendenOutKnee Injury
  • T. AwoniyiOutRed Card

Newcastle

  • A. ElangaOutKnee Injury
  • D. BurnDoubtfulAnkle Injury
  • E. JaouenOutMuscle Injury
  • J. RamseyDoubtfulInjury
  • JoelintonDoubtfulThigh Injury
  • V. LivramentoDoubtfulInjury
  • W. OsulaDoubtfulFoot Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season19th v 11th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Coventry

19th of 20 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L4 from 5 games · scored 1, conceded 10

Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 0, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 4 in 5 games

Last five league games WLLLL (most recent last)

Newcastle

11th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L1 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 9

Home W1 D2 L0 (scored 6, conceded 5) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WLDWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Coventry to win (90 minutes)
23%
30%
YES on Coventry to WinCoventry wins in 90 minutes
23%30¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 11,787 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Newcastle to win (90 minutes)
52%
44%
YES on Newcastle to WinNewcastle wins in 90 minutes
52%44¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 186,357 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
27%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 35,348 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawCoventry or Newcastle wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%74¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 10,766 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Newcastle to WinCoventry wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
48%57¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 24,342 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Coventry to WinNewcastle wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
77%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 29,663 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
93%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
93%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 16,987 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
7%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 15,484 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
75%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
75%81¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 16,517 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
25%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 117 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
51%
57%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
51%58¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 63,105 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
49%43¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 589 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
28%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
28%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 53,080 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
72%65¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 24 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
14%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,474 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
86%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 669 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
6%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,217 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
94%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 27,913 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
52%
61%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
52%61¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,473 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
48%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 8,281 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Winning margin
Coventry to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCoventry wins by 2 goals or more
8%13¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,709 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Coventry to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNewcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Coventry wins by 1 goal · Coventry not by 2+ goals
92%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 14,426 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Coventry to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCoventry wins by 3 goals or more
2%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 37,200 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Coventry to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNewcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Coventry wins by 2 goals or fewer · Coventry not by 3+ goals
98%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 364 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
28%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNewcastle wins by 2 goals or more
28%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,851 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Newcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCoventry wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 1 goal · Newcastle not by 2+ goals
72%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,218 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNewcastle wins by 3 goals or more
12%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,866 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Newcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCoventry wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 2 goals or fewer · Newcastle not by 3+ goals
88%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 32,429 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Team goals
Coventry over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
64%
75%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry Over 0.5 GoalsCoventry scores 1 goal or more
64%75¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,476 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Coventry Over 0.5 GoalsCoventry does not score · Coventry under 0.5 goals
36%26¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Coventry over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
38%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry Over 1.5 GoalsCoventry scores 2 goals or more
27%38¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,612 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Coventry Over 1.5 GoalsCoventry scores 1 goal or fewer · Coventry under 1.5 goals
73%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,258 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Coventry over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry Over 2.5 GoalsCoventry scores 3 goals or more
9%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 501 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Coventry Over 2.5 GoalsCoventry scores 2 goals or fewer · Coventry under 2.5 goals
91%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,706 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Newcastle over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
81%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle Over 0.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 1 goal or more
81%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Newcastle Over 0.5 GoalsNewcastle does not score · Newcastle under 0.5 goals
19%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 350 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Newcastle over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
50%
50%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle Over 1.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 2 goals or more
50%50¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,628 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Newcastle Over 1.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 1 goal or fewer · Newcastle under 1.5 goals
50%51¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 103 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Newcastle over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
23%
22%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle Over 2.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 3 goals or more
23%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,505 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Newcastle Over 2.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 2 goals or fewer · Newcastle under 2.5 goals
77%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,816 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 23.3% · draw 24.3% · away 52.3%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.67
Coventry eligible matches
5 (5 with xG)
Newcastle eligible matches
119 (119 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1199 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:59
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
thin evidence: home side has 5 eligible matches; home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 12 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • thin evidence: home side has 5 eligible matches
  • home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
  • the model's home probability is 6% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's away probability is 9% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

CoventryOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptNottingham Forestaway1–00.67–1.10W
13 SeptBrightonhome0–51.33–2.81L
5 SeptManchester Cityaway0–11.37–2.12L
29 AugHull Cityhome0–11.29–0.72L
21 AugArsenalaway0–30.20–1.88L
NewcastleOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptHull Cityhome2–11.44–1.59W
14 SeptLeedsaway1–40.88–2.08L
5 SeptBournemouthhome2–20.71–1.37D
29 AugTottenhamaway2–00.72–1.12W
23 AugLiverpoolhome2–21.58–2.98D
24 MayFulhamaway0–20.31–1.81L

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT12COVNEW-BTTS
52.1%60.5%−8.4 pts0.60 / 0.610.402,473 / 8,281Comparable
seen 2 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Coventry to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-COV
23.3%29.5%−6.2 pts0.29 / 0.300.7111,787 / 29,663Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW
52.3%43.5%+8.8 pts0.43 / 0.440.57186,357 / 24,342Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-TIE
24.3%26.5%−2.2 pts0.26 / 0.270.7435,348 / 10,766Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Coventry to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2
8.5%12.5%−4.0 pts0.12 / 0.130.8814,709 / 14,426Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Coventry to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3
2.4%4.5%−2.1 pts0.04 / 0.050.9637,200 / 364Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2
28.2%22.5%+5.7 pts0.22 / 0.230.783,851 / 3,218Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW3
12.2%8.5%+3.7 pts0.08 / 0.090.921,866 / 32,429Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Coventry over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV1
64.2%74.5%−10.3 pts0.74 / 0.750.264,476 / 2Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Coventry over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2
27.4%37.5%−10.1 pts0.37 / 0.380.632,612 / 2,258Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Coventry over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3
8.5%14.5%−6.0 pts0.13 / 0.160.87501 / 2,706Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW1
81.1%81.0%+0.1 pts0.80 / 0.820.20500 / 350Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2
49.7%49.5%+0.2 pts0.49 / 0.500.512,628 / 103Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW3
23.4%22.0%+1.4 pts0.21 / 0.230.791,505 / 6,816Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-1
93.2%94.5%−1.3 pts0.94 / 0.950.0616,987 / 15,484Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-2
75.0%80.5%−5.5 pts0.80 / 0.810.2016,517 / 117Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-3
50.5%57.5%−7.0 pts0.57 / 0.580.4363,105 / 589Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-4
28.5%35.5%−7.0 pts0.35 / 0.360.6553,080 / 24Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-5
13.6%17.5%−3.9 pts0.17 / 0.180.833,474 / 669Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-6
5.6%7.5%−1.9 pts0.07 / 0.080.931,217 / 27,913Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:07:01.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home30.2%29.6% – 31.4%31.7%3.151023.3%−6.8 pts
1x2:draw26.6%25.6% – 27.2%27.8%3.601024.3%−2.3 pts
1x2:away43.2%41.4% – 44.1%45.2%2.211052.3%+9.1 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:45.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.556.5%55.6% – 57.6%59.7%1.68850.5%−6.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.543.5%42.4% – 44.4%45.5%2.20849.5%+6.0 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:48.

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.23 · draw 3.64 · home 3.2411/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.20 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.25 · draw 3.59 · home 3.2211/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.14 · draw 3.25 · home 2.8211/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.15 · draw 3.50 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.15 · draw 3.60 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.25 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1511/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.27 · draw 3.70 · home 3.2911/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.22 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1511/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.15 · draw 3.70 · home 3.1311/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.70 · under 2.5 2.1811/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.74 · under 2.5 2.1811/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.68 · under 2.5 2.2111/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.0711/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:07:01.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:51 (Last checked 25 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Coventryok11/10/2026, 01:39:12 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Newcastleok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home23.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away52.3%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x47.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x276.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes52.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no47.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.575.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.525.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.550.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.549.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.528.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.571.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.513.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.586.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.55.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.594.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.564.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.535.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.527.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.572.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.58.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.591.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.52.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.597.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.581.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.518.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.549.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.550.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.523.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.576.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.58.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.591.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.52.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.597.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.58.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.591.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.523.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.576.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.547.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.552.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.571.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.528.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.587.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.512.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home30.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away69.2%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 531 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:07:01