Got%OnIt
Matches
Premier League·Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT

BournemouthvSunderland

Bournemouth
51%
Draw
25%
Sunderland
25%

Got%OnIt gives Bournemouth a 51% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.6 goals for Bournemouth and 1.1 for Sunderland.
  • Bournemouth won 0 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 a game.
  • Sunderland won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Bournemouth are 17th of 20 after 6 games; Sunderland are 16th.
  • Bournemouth have won 0 and lost 3; Sunderland have won 1 and lost 4.
Recent matches the model used

Bournemouth

  • L1–5at Chelsea10 Oct
  • L0–1v Liverpool20 Sept
  • D2–2v Brentford12 Sept
  • D2–2at Newcastle5 Sept
  • D1–1v Everton29 Aug
  • L1–2at Manchester City23 Aug

Sunderland

  • L0–2v Brighton10 Oct
  • L3–5at Manchester City20 Sept
  • L0–2v Arsenal12 Sept
  • D1–1at Brentford5 Sept
  • W1–0v Fulham30 Aug
  • L1–2at Ipswich22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 589, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bournemouth)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Sunderland)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:22 PDT1199 finished Premier League matches (1199 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Available at prediction timeKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBournemouth 2.8 d rest (short) · Sunderland 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Bournemouth

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League H AC Milan +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (H Sturm Graz) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLH LiverpoolL 0–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLA ChelseaL 1–5counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELH Sturm GrazNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELH AC Milan+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLA Manchester United+7 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLH Aston Villa+10.3 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLH Leeds+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Scott (M) — reason unknown; J. Kluivert (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Bournemouth: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. Truffert · regularD0840' France, 12.8 d before
T. Adams · regularM090—
Rayan · regularM090—
Evanilson · regularF090—
D. BrooksM045—
R. ChristieM014572' Scotland, 11.8 d before
António Silva · regularD090—
A. Smith · regularD072—
Đ. Petrović · regularG090—
J. Hill · regularD090—
M. Tavernier · regularM072—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 206 minutes — R. Christie (72' Scotland, 11.8 d before); A. Tóth (61' Hungary, 12.8 d before); B. Doak (73' Scotland, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Sunderland

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A Lech Poznan +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (A Torreense) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLA Manchester CityL 3–5counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH BrightonL 0–2counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELA TorreenseNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELA Lech Poznan+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLH Leeds+7.1 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLH Brentford+10.3 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Coventry+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 46 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: B. Brobbey (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Sunderland: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
T. Hume · regularD018090' Northern Ireland, 12.8 d before
N. Mukiele · regularD090—
E. Le Fée · regularM081—
Reinildo · regularD073—
N. Sadiki · regularM090—
K. DansoD018090' Austria, 13.9 d before
T. MeunierM034—
W. IsidorF017989' Haiti, 13.5 d before
G. Xhaka · regularM090—
N. Angulo · regularM073—
R. Roefs · regularG0900' Netherlands, 13.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 269 minutes — T. Hume (90' Northern Ireland, 12.8 d before); K. Danso (90' Austria, 13.9 d before); W. Isidor (89' Haiti, 13.5 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Bournemouth51%47%47%
Draw25%27%27%
Sunderland25%26%26%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 3 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Bournemouth

  • Bournemouth: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • L1–5at Chelsea10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Liverpool20 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Brentford12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Newcastle5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Everton29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Manchester City23 Aug · in model evidence

Sunderland

  • Sunderland: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–2v Brighton10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L3–5at Manchester City20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Arsenal12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Brentford5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Fulham30 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Ipswich22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal18%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more6%
Over 1.575%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Both teams score53%

Bournemouth

Expected goals1.64
Scores at least once81%
Scores 2 or more49%
Clean sheet34%

Sunderland

Expected goals1.07
Scores at least once66%
Scores 2 or more29%
Clean sheet19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 26 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season17th v 16th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Bournemouth

17th of 20 · 3 pts · W0 D3 L3 from 6 games · scored 7, conceded 13

Home W0 D2 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 9)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games LLDDD (most recent last)

Sunderland

16th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L4 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 12

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 5, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games LLLDW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Bournemouth to win (90 minutes)
51%
47%
YES on Bournemouth to WinBournemouth wins in 90 minutes
51%48¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 140 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sunderland to win (90 minutes)
25%
26%
YES on Sunderland to WinSunderland wins in 90 minutes
25%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 8,088 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
27%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,613 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBournemouth or Sunderland wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%74¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,368 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Sunderland to WinBournemouth wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
75%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,674 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Bournemouth to WinSunderland wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
49%54¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,049 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
93%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
93%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 639 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
7%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 633 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
75%
77%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
75%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8,418 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
25%25¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,678 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
51%
53%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
51%54¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,138 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
49%49¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 632 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
29%
31%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
29%32¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,141 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
71%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,005 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
14%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,129 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
86%85¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 3 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,144 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
94%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 704 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
53%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
53%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,419 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
47%45¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 626 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Winning margin
Bournemouth to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Bournemouth to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBournemouth wins by 2 goals or more
27%25¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 710 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Bournemouth to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSunderland wins or the match is drawn, or Bournemouth wins by 1 goal · Bournemouth not by 2+ goals
73%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 627 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Bournemouth to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Bournemouth to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBournemouth wins by 3 goals or more
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 511 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Bournemouth to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSunderland wins or the match is drawn, or Bournemouth wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bournemouth not by 3+ goals
89%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 620 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Sunderland to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Sunderland to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSunderland wins by 2 goals or more
9%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,131 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Sunderland to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBournemouth wins or the match is drawn, or Sunderland wins by 1 goal · Sunderland not by 2+ goals
91%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 620 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Sunderland to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Sunderland to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSunderland wins by 3 goals or more
3%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 84 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Sunderland to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBournemouth wins or the match is drawn, or Sunderland wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sunderland not by 3+ goals
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,253 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 50.6% · draw 24.5% · away 24.9%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.07
Bournemouth eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Sunderland eligible matches
44 (44 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1199 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:59
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 12 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

BournemouthOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctChelseaaway1–51.52–1.16L
20 SeptLiverpoolhome0–10.79–1.65L
12 SeptBrentfordhome2–21.75–0.50D
5 SeptNewcastleaway2–21.37–0.71D
29 AugEvertonhome1–12.16–1.84D
23 AugManchester Cityaway1–20.65–2.25L
SunderlandOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBrightonhome0–20.68–1.14L
20 SeptManchester Cityaway3–53.57–2.82L
12 SeptArsenalhome0–21.80–1.88L
5 SeptBrentfordaway1–11.71–1.21D
30 AugFulhamhome1–02.02–0.95W
22 AugIpswichaway1–20.66–1.80L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18BOUSUN-BTTS
53.1%56.5%−3.4 pts0.55 / 0.580.457,419 / 626Comparable
seen 3 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bournemouth to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU
50.6%47.0%+3.6 pts0.46 / 0.480.54140 / 4,049Comparable
seen 3 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Sunderland to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN
24.9%26.0%−1.1 pts0.25 / 0.270.758,088 / 4,674Comparable
seen 3 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-TIE
24.5%26.5%−2.0 pts0.26 / 0.270.746,613 / 3,368Comparable
seen 3 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bournemouth to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU2
26.9%24.0%+2.9 pts0.23 / 0.250.77710 / 627Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Bournemouth to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU3
11.4%10.0%+1.4 pts0.09 / 0.110.91511 / 620Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sunderland to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN2
9.3%10.0%−0.7 pts0.09 / 0.110.911,131 / 620Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Sunderland to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN3
2.7%3.5%−0.8 pts0.01 / 0.060.9984 / 2,253Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-1
93.4%93.0%+0.4 pts0.92 / 0.940.08639 / 633Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-2
75.4%76.5%−1.1 pts0.75 / 0.780.258,418 / 1,678Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-3
51.0%52.5%−1.5 pts0.51 / 0.540.491,138 / 632Comparable
seen 3 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-4
29.0%30.5%−1.5 pts0.29 / 0.320.711,141 / 2,005Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-5
14.0%15.5%−1.5 pts0.15 / 0.160.851,129 / 0Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-6
5.8%6.0%−0.2 pts0.05 / 0.070.951,144 / 704Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:07:43.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home47.2%44.8% – 48.2%50.0%2.001050.6%+3.4 pts
1x2:draw26.5%26.1% – 27.6%27.9%3.591024.5%−2.0 pts
1x2:away26.4%25.5% – 27.6%28.0%3.581024.9%−1.5 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:25.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.552.6%52.4% – 53.6%55.3%1.81851.0%−1.6 pts
total_goals:under:2.547.4%46.4% – 47.6%49.6%2.02849.0%+1.6 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:26.

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.75 · draw 3.65 · home 1.9911/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.60 · home 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.64 · draw 3.58 · home 2.0111/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 3.21 · draw 3.21 · home 1.9811/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 3.60 · draw 3.50 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 3.60 · draw 3.50 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.55 · draw 3.60 · home 2.0411/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.85 · draw 3.75 · home 2.0411/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.60 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.50 · home 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.82 · under 2.5 2.0111/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.82 · under 2.5 2.0211/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.79 · under 2.5 2.0711/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.80 · under 2.5 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.88 · under 2.5 2.0711/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.82 · under 2.5 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 1.9311/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:07:43.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:13 (Last checked 26 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Bournemouthok11/10/2026, 01:39:07 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Sunderlandok11/10/2026, 01:39:12 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home50.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away24.9%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x75.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x249.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.5%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes53.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no46.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.575.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.524.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.551.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.549.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.529.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.571.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.514.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.586.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.55.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.594.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.580.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.519.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.548.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.551.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.522.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.577.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.58.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.591.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.565.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.534.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.529.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.570.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.59.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.590.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.511.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.588.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.526.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.573.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.550.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.549.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.575.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.524.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.590.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.59.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.597.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home67.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away32.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 589 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:07:43