Got%OnIt
Matches
Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT

BrentfordvLiverpool

Brentford
36%
Draw
24%
Liverpool
41%

Got%OnIt gives Liverpool a 41% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Brentford and 1.6 for Liverpool.
  • Brentford won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 a game.
  • Liverpool won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Brentford are 4th of 20 after 6 games; Liverpool are 7th.
  • Brentford have won 2 and lost 0; Liverpool have won 2 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Brentford

  • D2–2at Aston Villa10 Oct
  • W3–0v Chelsea18 Sept
  • D2–2at Bournemouth12 Sept
  • D1–1v Sunderland5 Sept
  • D1–1at Leeds30 Aug
  • W3–0v Tottenham22 Aug

Liverpool

  • L0–3v Manchester City11 Oct
  • W1–0at Bournemouth20 Sept
  • D0–0v Fulham12 Sept
  • W2–0at Ipswich4 Sept
  • D2–2v Nottingham Forest29 Aug
  • D2–2at Newcastle23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 559, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Liverpool)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Brentford)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:22 PDT1199 finished Premier League matches (1199 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBrentford 2 absent regulars · Liverpool 2.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Brentford

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Hull City +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptPLH ChelseaW 3–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLA Aston VillaD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctPLA Hull City+8 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLA Sunderland+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 49 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Damsgaard (M) — reason unknown; N. Collins (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 77.8 CONFIRMED

Brentford: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Thiago · regularF9090—
K. Schade · regularM5252—
J. AnthonyM8585—
E. DioufD9090—
K. Ajer · regularD9018090' Norway, 12.8 d before
Jannik SchusterD4545—
K. Lewis-Potter · regularM6767—
V. Janelt · regularM90900' Germany, 12.8 d before
Y. YarmolyukM6767—
M. Kayode · regularD9012535' Italy, 11.8 d before
C. Kelleher · regularG9018090' Rep. Of Ireland, 12.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 433 minutes — A. Hickey (14' Scotland, 13.8 d before; 24' Scotland, 10.8 d before); K. Ajer (90' Norway, 12.8 d before); H. Valdimarsson (90' Iceland, 13.9 d before; 90' Iceland, 10.8 d before); M. Kayode (35' Italy, 11.8 d before); C. Kelleher (90' Rep. Of Ireland, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Liverpool

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Villarreal +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.9 d before (A Lask Linz); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H Villarreal) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLA BournemouthW 1–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctPLH Manchester CityL 0–3counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLA Lask LinzNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLH Villarreal+3.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLH Brighton+8 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLH Chelsea+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 61 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: D. Szoboszlai (M) — reason unknown; C. Gakpo (M) — reason unknown; A. Isak (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.7 CONFIRMED

Liverpool: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
L. KoumasF7513156' Wales, 12.8 d before
B. BarcolaM8816072' France, 11.8 d before
F. Wirtz · regularM6615690' Germany, 12.8 d before
Víctor MuñozM9014644' Spain, 13.8 d before; 12' Spain, 10.8 d before
R. GravenberchM9014959' Netherlands, 12.8 d before
M. Kerkez · regularD9090—
V. van Dijk · regularD9018090' Netherlands, 12.8 d before
R. AraújoD7575—
A. Mac Allister · regularM9090—
J. Jacquet · regularD8888—
Alisson Becker · regularG9090—

International duty in 14 days: 9 players, 620 minutes — G. Mamardashvili (90' Georgia, 11.8 d before); K. Tsimikas (90' Greece, 12.8 d before); R. Ngumoha (0' England, 13.9 d before; 17' England, 10.8 d before); L. Koumas (56' Wales, 12.8 d before); B. Barcola (72' France, 11.8 d before); F. Wirtz (90' Germany, 12.8 d before); Víctor Muñoz (44' Spain, 13.8 d before; 12' Spain, 10.8 d before); R. Gravenberch (59' Netherlands, 12.8 d before); V. van Dijk (90' Netherlands, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Brentford36%35%39%
Draw24%26%26%
Liverpool41%39%36%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 29 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Liverpool a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (41% vs 36%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Brentford

  • Brentford: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • D2–2at Aston Villa10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Chelsea18 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Bournemouth12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Sunderland5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Leeds30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Tottenham22 Aug · in model evidence

Liverpool

  • Liverpool: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • L0–3v Manchester City11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Bournemouth20 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Fulham12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Ipswich4 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Nottingham Forest29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Newcastle23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal14%
2 goals21%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals11%
6 or more10%
Over 1.582%
Over 2.560%
Over 3.538%
Both teams score62%

Brentford

Expected goals1.50
Scores at least once78%
Scores 2 or more44%
Clean sheet20%

Liverpool

Expected goals1.62
Scores at least once80%
Scores 2 or more48%
Clean sheet22%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 7th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Brentford

4th of 20 · 10 pts · W2 D4 L0 from 6 games · scored 12, conceded 6

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 7, conceded 1) · Away W0 D3 L0 (scored 5, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games DWDDD (most recent last)

Liverpool

7th of 20 · 9 pts · W2 D3 L0 from 5 games · scored 7, conceded 4

Home W0 D2 L0 (scored 2, conceded 2) · Away W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WDWDD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Brentford to win (90 minutes)
36%
39%
YES on Brentford to WinBrentford wins in 90 minutes
36%39¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 111 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Liverpool to win (90 minutes)
41%
36%
YES on Liverpool to WinLiverpool wins in 90 minutes
41%36¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 39,344 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 19,334 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBrentford or Liverpool wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 10,663 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Liverpool to WinBrentford wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
59%65¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 563 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Brentford to WinLiverpool wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
64%62¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 8,681 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 907 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
83%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
82%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 713 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
18%18¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 8 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
61%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
60%62¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,309 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
40%40¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,738 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
38%
39%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
38%39¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 18 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
62%62¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,010 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
21%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
21%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,427 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
79%78¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
10%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,214 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
90%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,557 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
62%
64%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
62%65¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,643 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
38%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,780 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Winning margin
Brentford to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
17%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Brentford to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBrentford wins by 2 goals or more
17%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,312 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Brentford to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLiverpool wins or the match is drawn, or Brentford wins by 1 goal · Brentford not by 2+ goals
83%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,144 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Brentford to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Brentford to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBrentford wins by 3 goals or more
7%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,310 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Brentford to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLiverpool wins or the match is drawn, or Brentford wins by 2 goals or fewer · Brentford not by 3+ goals
93%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 727 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Liverpool to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Liverpool to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLiverpool wins by 2 goals or more
20%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,310 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Liverpool to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBrentford wins or the match is drawn, or Liverpool wins by 1 goal · Liverpool not by 2+ goals
80%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 9,412 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Liverpool to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Liverpool to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLiverpool wins by 3 goals or more
8%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,223 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Liverpool to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBrentford wins or the match is drawn, or Liverpool wins by 2 goals or fewer · Liverpool not by 3+ goals
92%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,476 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 35.7% · draw 23.7% · away 40.5%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.62
Brentford eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Liverpool eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1199 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:59
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 12 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • the model's away probability is 5% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

BrentfordOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctAston Villaaway2–21.31–1.84D
18 SeptChelseahome3–02.65–0.83W
12 SeptBournemouthaway2–20.50–1.75D
5 SeptSunderlandhome1–11.21–1.71D
30 AugLeedsaway1–11.67–1.46D
22 AugTottenhamhome3–03.87–0.57W
LiverpoolOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctManchester Cityhome0–30.94–1.36L
20 SeptBournemouthaway1–01.65–0.79W
12 SeptFulhamhome0–01.28–0.70D
4 SeptIpswichaway2–00.69–0.75W
29 AugNottingham Foresthome2–21.75–2.30D
23 AugNewcastleaway2–22.98–1.58D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17BRELFC-BTTS
62.3%64.0%−1.7 pts0.63 / 0.650.375,643 / 1,780Comparable
seen 29 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Brentford to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE
35.7%38.5%−2.8 pts0.38 / 0.390.62111 / 8,681Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Liverpool to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC
40.5%35.5%+5.0 pts0.35 / 0.360.6539,344 / 563Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-TIE
23.7%26.0%−2.3 pts0.25 / 0.270.7519,334 / 10,663Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Brentford to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE2
17.0%18.5%−1.5 pts0.17 / 0.200.831,312 / 1,144Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Brentford to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE3
6.5%8.0%−1.5 pts0.07 / 0.090.931,310 / 727Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Liverpool to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC2
20.4%16.5%+3.9 pts0.15 / 0.180.851,310 / 9,412Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Liverpool to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC3
8.3%7.0%+1.3 pts0.05 / 0.090.952,223 / 2,476Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-1
95.6%95.0%+0.6 pts0.94 / 0.960.06363 / 907Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-2
81.8%82.5%−0.7 pts0.82 / 0.830.18713 / 8Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-3
60.3%61.0%−0.7 pts0.60 / 0.620.404,309 / 1,738Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-4
38.0%38.5%−0.5 pts0.38 / 0.390.6218 / 3,010Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-5
20.6%22.5%−1.9 pts0.22 / 0.230.781,427 / 0Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-6
9.7%9.5%+0.2 pts0.08 / 0.110.921,214 / 1,557Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:06:40.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home34.7%34.0% – 36.1%36.8%2.721035.7%+1.0 pts
1x2:draw26.0%24.7% – 26.7%27.0%3.701023.7%−2.3 pts
1x2:away39.3%38.7% – 40.6%41.6%2.401040.5%+1.3 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:19.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.560.9%60.2% – 62.0%65.8%1.52760.3%−0.5 pts
total_goals:under:2.539.1%38.0% – 39.8%41.7%2.40739.7%+0.5 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:19.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.43 · draw 3.64 · home 2.8011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.40 · draw 3.80 · home 2.6011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.46 · draw 3.60 · home 2.7411/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.28 · draw 3.38 · home 2.5311/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.38 · draw 3.50 · home 2.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.30 · draw 3.75 · home 2.7011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.41 · draw 3.70 · home 2.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.50 · draw 3.74 · home 2.8811/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.45 · draw 3.70 · home 2.7011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.38 · draw 3.70 · home 2.6311/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.51 · under 2.5 2.3511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.56 · under 2.5 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.51 · under 2.5 2.3511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.4211/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.52 · under 2.5 2.3111/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:06:40.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:07 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Brentfordok11/10/2026, 01:39:10 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Liverpoolok11/10/2026, 01:39:07 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home35.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw23.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away40.5%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x59.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x264.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1276.3%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes62.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no37.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.581.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.518.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.560.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.539.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.538.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.562.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.520.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.579.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.590.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.577.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.522.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.544.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.555.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.519.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.580.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.580.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.519.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.548.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.552.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.522.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.577.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.58.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.591.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.56.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.593.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.517.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.583.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.535.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.564.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.559.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.540.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.579.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.520.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home46.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away53.2%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 559 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:06:40