Got%OnIt
Matches
Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT

EvertonvChelsea

Everton
35%
Draw
25%
Chelsea
40%

Got%OnIt gives Chelsea a 40% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Everton and 1.4 for Chelsea.
  • Everton won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • Chelsea won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Everton are 8th of 20 after 5 games; Chelsea are 5th.
  • Everton have won 2 and lost 0; Chelsea have won 3 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Everton

  • D2–2at Hull City11 Oct
  • W1–0v Ipswich19 Sept
  • D0–0at Tottenham12 Sept
  • D2–2v Manchester United6 Sept
  • D1–1at Bournemouth29 Aug
  • W2–0v Crystal Palace22 Aug

Chelsea

  • W5–1v Bournemouth10 Oct
  • L0–3at Brentford18 Sept
  • D2–2v Hull City12 Sept
  • L1–2at Arsenal6 Sept
  • W4–3v Brighton30 Aug
  • W3–2at Fulham24 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 543, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Everton)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Chelsea)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:22 PDT1199 finished Premier League matches (1199 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Available at prediction timeKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationEverton 2 absent regulars · Chelsea 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Everton

5.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Arsenal +7.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLH IpswichW 1–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctPLA Hull CityD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctPLA Arsenal+7.1 d
  • Thu 29 OctEFLH Newcastle+12.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: V. Mykolenko (D) — reason unknown; I. Ndiaye (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.9 CONFIRMED

Everton: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
H. Armstrong · regularM7878—
J. Garner · regularM9013720' England, 13.8 d before; 27' England, 10.7 d before
T. Barry · regularF8686—
J. BranthwaiteD901170' England, 13.8 d before; 27' England, 10.7 d before
J. Tarkowski · regularD9090—
J. Pickford · regularG9027090' England, 13.8 d before; 90' England, 10.7 d before
K. Dewsbury-Hall · regularM9090—
J. GrealishM8686—
B. JohnsonM6614276' Wales, 12.7 d before
M. KeaneD9090—
A. Maitland-NilesD7878—

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 420 minutes — J. O'Brien (90' Rep. Of Ireland, 12.7 d before); J. Garner (20' England, 13.8 d before; 27' England, 10.7 d before); J. Branthwaite (0' England, 13.8 d before; 27' England, 10.7 d before); J. Pickford (90' England, 13.8 d before; 90' England, 10.7 d before); B. Johnson (76' Wales, 12.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Chelsea

6.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Tottenham +7.2 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptPLA BrentfordL 0–3counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH BournemouthW 5–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctPLH Tottenham+7.2 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLA Liverpool+11.4 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 64 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 9 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.4 CONFIRMED

Chelsea: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Rogers · regularF8419420' England, 13.8 d before; 90' England, 10.7 d before
Joshua Kofi AcheampongD9090—
M. Lacroix · regularD9018090' France, 11.7 d before
Pedro Neto · regularM83830' Portugal, 12.7 d before
M. CaicedoM7272—
E. MartínezG9090—
L. Colwill · regularD9090—
J. HendersonM9090—
Pep ChavarríaM9090—
C. Palmer · regularF8888—
João Pedro · regularF7272—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 319 minutes — M. Rogers (20' England, 13.8 d before; 90' England, 10.7 d before); M. Lacroix (90' France, 11.7 d before); J. Hato (32' Netherlands, 12.7 d before); R. Lavia (87' Belgium, 11.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Everton35%30%30%
Draw25%26%26%
Chelsea40%44%45%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 3 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Everton a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (35% vs 30%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Everton

  • Everton: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • D2–2at Hull City11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Ipswich19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Tottenham12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Manchester United6 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Bournemouth29 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Crystal Palace22 Aug · in model evidence

Chelsea

  • Chelsea: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.0 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 90%.
  • W5–1v Bournemouth10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Brentford18 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Hull City12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Arsenal6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–3v Brighton30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Fulham24 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals6%
1 goal17%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals9%
6 or more6%
Over 1.577%
Over 2.553%
Over 3.530%
Both teams score56%

Everton

Expected goals1.34
Scores at least once74%
Scores 2 or more39%
Clean sheet24%

Chelsea

Expected goals1.44
Scores at least once76%
Scores 2 or more42%
Clean sheet26%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 26 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season8th v 5th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Everton

8th of 20 · 9 pts · W2 D3 L0 from 5 games · scored 6, conceded 3

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2) · Away W0 D2 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WDDDW (most recent last)

Chelsea

5th of 20 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L2 from 6 games · scored 15, conceded 13

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 11, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 4, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games WLDLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets10 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Chelsea to win (90 minutes)
40%
45%
YES on Chelsea to WinChelsea wins in 90 minutes
40%45¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 22,632 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Everton to win (90 minutes)
35%
30%
YES on Everton to WinEverton wins in 90 minutes
35%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 38,140 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 12,327 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawEverton or Chelsea wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,230 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Chelsea to WinEverton wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
60%56¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 11,063 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Everton to WinChelsea wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
65%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 11,121 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
53%
59%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
53%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,776 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
47%42¢
Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 3 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
30%
35%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
30%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,207 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
70%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,725 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
56%
61%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
56%61¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 369 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
44%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,047 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Winning margin
Chelsea to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
19%
22%
Limited evidence
YES on Chelsea to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsChelsea wins by 2 goals or more
19%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 700 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Chelsea to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEverton wins or the match is drawn, or Chelsea wins by 1 goal · Chelsea not by 2+ goals
81%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,184 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Chelsea to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Chelsea to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsChelsea wins by 3 goals or more
7%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,404 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Chelsea to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEverton wins or the match is drawn, or Chelsea wins by 2 goals or fewer · Chelsea not by 3+ goals
93%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 350 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Everton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Everton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEverton wins by 2 goals or more
16%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,313 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Everton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsChelsea wins or the match is drawn, or Everton wins by 1 goal · Everton not by 2+ goals
84%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 12,181 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Everton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Everton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEverton wins by 3 goals or more
6%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 517 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
NO on Everton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsChelsea wins or the match is drawn, or Everton wins by 2 goals or fewer · Everton not by 3+ goals
94%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,466 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 34.9% · draw 25.3% · away 39.8%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.44
Everton eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Chelsea eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1199 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:59
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 12 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

EvertonOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctHull Cityaway2–21.73–1.42D
19 SeptIpswichhome1–02.24–1.44W
12 SeptTottenhamaway0–01.11–0.69D
6 SeptManchester Unitedhome2–21.01–0.69D
29 AugBournemouthaway1–11.84–2.16D
22 AugCrystal Palacehome2–01.12–1.96W
ChelseaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBournemouthhome5–11.16–1.52W
18 SeptBrentfordaway0–30.83–2.65L
12 SeptHull Cityhome2–20.91–1.38D
6 SeptArsenalaway1–20.39–2.05L
30 AugBrightonhome4–32.93–1.41W
24 AugFulhamaway3–22.24–1.33W

Kalshi contracts and the model

10 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17EVECFC-BTTS
56.4%60.5%−4.1 pts0.60 / 0.610.40369 / 1,047Comparable
seen 3 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Chelsea to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC
39.8%44.5%−4.7 pts0.44 / 0.450.5622,632 / 11,063Comparable
seen 3 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Everton to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE
34.9%30.0%+4.9 pts0.29 / 0.310.7138,140 / 11,121Comparable
seen 3 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-TIE
25.3%25.5%−0.2 pts0.25 / 0.260.7512,327 / 2,230Comparable
seen 3 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Chelsea to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC2
18.9%22.0%−3.1 pts0.21 / 0.230.79700 / 7,184Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Chelsea to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC3
7.1%10.0%−2.9 pts0.09 / 0.110.912,404 / 350Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Everton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE2
15.6%12.5%+3.1 pts0.11 / 0.140.891,313 / 12,181Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Everton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE3
5.5%4.5%+1.0 pts0.03 / 0.060.97517 / 2,466Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17EVECFC-3
52.6%58.5%−5.9 pts0.58 / 0.590.422,776 / 0Comparable
seen 3 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17EVECFC-4
30.4%35.0%−4.6 pts0.34 / 0.360.661,207 / 5,725Comparable
seen 3 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:07:41.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home29.9%29.5% – 31.0%31.8%3.141034.9%+5.0 pts
1x2:draw25.6%24.8% – 26.5%26.9%3.721025.3%−0.3 pts
1x2:away44.2%43.9% – 44.8%47.3%2.121039.8%−4.5 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:11.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.556.9%56.3% – 57.9%59.9%1.67752.6%−4.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.543.1%42.1% – 43.7%45.2%2.21747.4%+4.2 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:11.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.17 · draw 3.78 · home 3.1511/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.75 · home 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.13 · draw 3.69 · home 3.2211/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.02 · draw 3.35 · home 2.9911/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.80 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.13 · draw 3.75 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.23 · draw 3.88 · home 3.2411/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.15 · draw 3.65 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1311/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.68 · under 2.5 2.2111/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.68 · under 2.5 2.2211/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.2811/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.63 · under 2.5 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:07:41.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:03 (Last checked 26 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Evertonok11/10/2026, 01:39:08 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Chelseaok11/10/2026, 01:39:09 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home34.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw25.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away39.8%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x60.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x265.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1274.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes56.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no43.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.576.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.523.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.552.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.547.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.530.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.569.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.515.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.585.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.56.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.593.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.573.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.526.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.538.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.561.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.515.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.584.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.576.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.523.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.542.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.557.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.517.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.582.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.594.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.55.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.594.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.515.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.584.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.534.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.565.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.560.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.539.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.581.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.518.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.592.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.57.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home46.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away53.3%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 543 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:07:41