Got%OnIt
Matches
Premier League·Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT

LeedsvManchester United

Leeds
40%
Draw
25%
Manchester United
35%

Got%OnIt gives Leeds a 40% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Leeds and 1.4 for Manchester United.
  • Leeds won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • Manchester United won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Leeds are 6th of 20 after 6 games; Manchester United are 12th.
  • Leeds have won 2 and lost 1; Manchester United have won 1 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Leeds

  • L1–2at Arsenal10 Oct
  • D0–0v Crystal Palace20 Sept
  • W4–1v Newcastle14 Sept
  • D1–1at Brighton5 Sept
  • D1–1v Brentford30 Aug
  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest22 Aug

Manchester United

  • D1–1v Tottenham10 Oct
  • D1–1at Fulham20 Sept
  • L0–1v Manchester City13 Sept
  • D2–2at Everton6 Sept
  • W5–2v Ipswich30 Aug
  • L0–2at Hull City22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 593, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Manchester United)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Leeds)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:22 PDT1199 finished Premier League matches (1199 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Available at prediction timeKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLeeds 1 absent regular · Manchester United 5 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Leeds

8.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Sunderland +7.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLH Crystal PalaceD 0–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLA ArsenalL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctPLA Sunderland+7.1 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Bournemouth+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Rodon (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Leeds: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. Bogle · regularM086—
J. Trafford · regularG0900' England, 11.8 d before
J. Justin · regularD079—
N. ElvediD017690' Switzerland, 11.8 d before
T. Muharemović · regularD018090' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 12.8 d before
E. Ampadu · regularM018090' Wales, 13.8 d before
N. OkaforM071—
D. Calvert-Lewin · regularF0988' England, 11.8 d before
A. Tanaka · regularM071—
G. GudmundssonM014454' Sweden, 12.8 d before
A. Stach · regularM090—

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 512 minutes — J. Bijol (90' Slovenia, 11.8 d before); I. Gruev (90' Bulgaria, 11.8 d before); N. Elvedi (90' Switzerland, 11.8 d before); T. Muharemović (90' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 12.8 d before); E. Ampadu (90' Wales, 13.8 d before); D. Calvert-Lewin (8' England, 11.8 d before); G. Gudmundsson (54' Sweden, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Manchester United

4.8 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Como +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (A Como) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLA FulhamD 1–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH TottenhamD 1–1counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLA Atletico MadridNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Como+3.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLH Bournemouth+7 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Chelsea+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Manchester United: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Bruno Fernandes · regularM018090' Portugal, 13.8 d before
A. DialloM059—
K. Mainoo · regularM090—
L. YoroD014990' France, 12.8 d before
B. Mbeumo · regularF090—
Matheus Cunha · regularM090—
Y. Tielemans · regularM059—
L. Shaw · regularD090—
Lisandro Martínez · regularD090—
H. Maguire · regularD090—
S. Lammens · regularG0900' Belgium, 12.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 251 minutes — Bruno Fernandes (90' Portugal, 13.8 d before); L. Yoro (90' France, 12.8 d before); J. Zirkzee (44' Netherlands, 13.8 d before); Diogo Dalot (27' Portugal, 13.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Leeds40%39%38%
Draw25%26%26%
Manchester United35%35%36%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 2 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Leeds

  • Leeds: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L1–2at Arsenal10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Crystal Palace20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1v Newcastle14 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Brighton5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Brentford30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest22 Aug · in model evidence

Manchester United

  • Manchester United: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • D1–1v Tottenham10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Fulham20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Manchester City13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Everton6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–2v Ipswich30 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Hull City22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals6%
1 goal16%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals9%
6 or more7%
Over 1.578%
Over 2.555%
Over 3.532%
Both teams score58%

Leeds

Expected goals1.49
Scores at least once78%
Scores 2 or more44%
Clean sheet25%

Manchester United

Expected goals1.38
Scores at least once75%
Scores 2 or more40%
Clean sheet22%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 25 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season6th v 12th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Leeds

6th of 20 · 9 pts · W2 D3 L1 from 6 games · scored 8, conceded 5

Home W1 D2 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games LDWDD (most recent last)

Manchester United

12th of 20 · 6 pts · W1 D3 L2 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 9

Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 6, conceded 4) · Away W0 D2 L1 (scored 3, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games DDLDW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Leeds to win (90 minutes)
40%
38%
YES on Leeds to WinLeeds wins in 90 minutes
40%38¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 24,703 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Manchester United to win (90 minutes)
35%
36%
YES on Manchester United to WinManchester United wins in 90 minutes
35%37¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 78,285 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,660 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawLeeds or Manchester United wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 17,662 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Manchester United to WinLeeds wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
65%65¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,856 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Leeds to WinManchester United wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
60%63¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,210 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
94%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
94%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 722 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,684 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
78%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
78%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,220 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
22%21¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 717 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
55%
57%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
55%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,216 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
45%44¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,045 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
32%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
32%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 506 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
68%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,845 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
16%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,218 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
84%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,224 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
7%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,221 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
93%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,077 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
58%
62%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
58%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,040 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
42%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,779 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Winning margin
Leeds to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
19%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Leeds to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLeeds wins by 2 goals or more
19%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 509 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Leeds to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester United wins or the match is drawn, or Leeds wins by 1 goal · Leeds not by 2+ goals
81%84¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,236 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Leeds to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Leeds to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLeeds wins by 3 goals or more
7%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,235 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Leeds to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester United wins or the match is drawn, or Leeds wins by 2 goals or fewer · Leeds not by 3+ goals
93%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,597 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester United wins by 2 goals or more
16%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,219 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Manchester United to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLeeds wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester United wins by 1 goal · Manchester United not by 2+ goals
84%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,298 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester United wins by 3 goals or more
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 507 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Manchester United to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLeeds wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester United wins by 2 goals or fewer · Manchester United not by 3+ goals
94%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 393 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 40.0% · draw 24.9% · away 35.1%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.38
Leeds eligible matches
44 (44 with xG)
Manchester United eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1199 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:59
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 12 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

LeedsOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctArsenalaway1–20.74–2.66L
20 SeptCrystal Palacehome0–01.31–1.06D
14 SeptNewcastlehome4–12.08–0.88W
5 SeptBrightonaway1–12.49–2.19D
30 AugBrentfordhome1–11.46–1.67D
22 AugNottingham Forestaway1–00.47–0.66W
Manchester UnitedOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctTottenhamhome1–10.82–1.62D
20 SeptFulhamaway1–11.60–1.62D
13 SeptManchester Cityhome0–11.00–1.10L
6 SeptEvertonaway2–20.69–1.01D
30 AugIpswichhome5–24.56–2.01W
22 AugHull Cityaway0–21.83–1.01L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18LEEMUN-BTTS
58.0%61.5%−3.5 pts0.60 / 0.630.405,040 / 5,779Comparable
seen 2 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Leeds to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE
40.0%37.5%+2.5 pts0.37 / 0.380.6324,703 / 1,210Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Manchester United to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN
35.1%36.0%−0.9 pts0.35 / 0.370.6578,285 / 2,856Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-TIE
24.9%26.0%−1.1 pts0.25 / 0.270.7514,660 / 17,662Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Leeds to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE2
19.4%17.5%+1.9 pts0.16 / 0.190.84509 / 1,236Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Leeds to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE3
7.5%6.5%+1.0 pts0.05 / 0.080.951,235 / 1,597Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN2
16.0%16.5%−0.5 pts0.15 / 0.180.851,219 / 2,298Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN3
5.8%6.0%−0.2 pts0.05 / 0.070.95507 / 393Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-1
94.3%94.0%+0.3 pts0.93 / 0.950.07722 / 1,684Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-2
78.1%80.5%−2.4 pts0.79 / 0.820.211,220 / 717Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-3
54.8%57.5%−2.7 pts0.56 / 0.590.441,216 / 6,045Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-4
32.4%35.5%−3.1 pts0.34 / 0.370.66506 / 1,845Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-5
16.4%18.5%−2.1 pts0.17 / 0.200.831,218 / 1,224Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-6
7.2%8.5%−1.3 pts0.07 / 0.100.931,221 / 1,077Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:07:06.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home38.8%38.1% – 39.5%41.2%2.431040.0%+1.3 pts
1x2:draw26.3%25.8% – 26.8%27.9%3.591024.9%−1.5 pts
1x2:away34.9%33.9% – 35.4%37.0%2.701035.1%+0.1 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:27.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.557.9%57.6% – 58.9%60.6%1.65754.8%−3.1 pts
total_goals:under:2.542.1%41.1% – 42.4%44.1%2.27745.2%+3.1 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:27.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.77 · draw 3.65 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.50 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.81 · draw 3.58 · home 2.4111/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
SBOMatch winneraway 2.52 · draw 3.30 · home 2.3211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
William HillMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.50 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
Bet365Match winneraway 2.62 · draw 3.50 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.65 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.85 · draw 3.75 · home 2.5211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.65 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.63 · draw 3.60 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.70 · under 2.5 2.3411/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.3211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.59 · under 2.5 2.1611/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:07:06.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:13 (Last checked 25 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Leedsok11/10/2026, 01:39:11 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Manchester Unitedok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home40.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away35.1%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x64.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x260.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.1%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes58.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no42.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.578.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.521.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.554.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.545.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.532.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.567.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.516.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.583.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.57.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.592.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.577.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.522.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.543.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.556.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.518.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.581.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.574.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.525.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.540.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.559.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.516.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.583.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.594.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.57.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.592.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.519.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.580.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.540.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.560.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.564.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.535.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.584.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.516.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.594.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.55.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home53.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away46.7%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 593 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:07:06