Got%OnIt
Matches
Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT

Manchester CityvIpswich

Manchester City
80%
Draw
13%
Ipswich
8%

Got%OnIt gives Manchester City a 80% chance of winning. That is roughly 4 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: Ipswich has little or no Premier League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.9 goals for Manchester City and 0.8 for Ipswich.
  • Manchester City won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • Ipswich won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Ipswich has little or no Premier League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Manchester City are 1st of 20 after 5 games; Ipswich are 9th.
  • Manchester City have won 5 and lost 0; Ipswich have won 3 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Manchester City

  • W5–3v Sunderland20 Sept
  • W1–0at Manchester United13 Sept
  • W1–0v Coventry5 Sept
  • W4–1at Crystal Palace28 Aug
  • W2–1v Bournemouth23 Aug
  • L1–2v Aston Villa24 May

Ipswich

  • W2–1v Fulham10 Oct
  • L0–1at Everton19 Sept
  • W3–2at Crystal Palace12 Sept
  • L0–2v Liverpool4 Sept
  • L2–5at Manchester United30 Aug
  • W2–1v Sunderland22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT; snapshot 338, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Manchester City)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Ipswich)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 07:59 PDT1198 finished Premier League matches (1198 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationManchester City 2.8 d rest (short) · Ipswich 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Manchester City

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 4 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H AEK Athens FC +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.8 d before (H Paris Saint Germain); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H AEK Athens FC) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Thu 17 SeptEFLH NorwichW 5–0counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptPLH SunderlandW 5–3counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctPLA LiverpoolW 3–0counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLH Paris Saint GermainNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLH AEK Athens FC+3.2 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLA Aston Villa+6.9 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLH Brighton+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 66 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: P. Foden (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.9 CONFIRMED

Manchester City: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
G. Donnarumma · regularG9018090' Italy, 11.8 d before
E. Haaland · regularF8014767' Norway, 12.8 d before
A. Semenyo · regularM9090—
E. FernándezM8080—
N. O'ReillyD6666—
E. Anderson · regularM9023279' England, 13.9 d before; 63' England, 10.8 d before
M. Guéhi · regularD9024390' England, 13.9 d before; 63' England, 10.8 d before
R. Cherki · regularM9012030' France, 11.8 d before
I. NdiayeM5656—
Rúben Dias · regularD9018090' Portugal, 12.8 d before
Matheus NunesD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 8 players, 930 minutes — G. Donnarumma (90' Italy, 11.8 d before); M. Kovačić (90' Croatia, 13.9 d before; 88' Croatia, 10.8 d before); E. Haaland (67' Norway, 12.8 d before); E. Anderson (79' England, 13.9 d before; 63' England, 10.8 d before); M. Guéhi (90' England, 13.9 d before; 63' England, 10.8 d before); J. Gvardiol (90' Croatia, 13.9 d before; 90' Croatia, 10.8 d before); R. Cherki (30' France, 11.8 d before); Rúben Dias (90' Portugal, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Ipswich

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Nottingham Forest +6.2 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLA EvertonL 0–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH FulhamW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctPLH Nottingham Forest+6.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 10 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 2 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.8 CONFIRMED

Ipswich: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
FlorentinoM6363—
S. LukićM9018090' Serbia, 12.8 d before
A. OuattaraD9090—
D. MaedaM8181—
EmersonnF7171—
J. PhilogeneM6363—
J. EncisoM7171—
C. WaltonG9090—
D. O'Shea · regularD9090—
L. DavisD9090—
I. DiopD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — S. Lukić (90' Serbia, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Manchester City80%76%80%
Draw13%15%13%
Ipswich8%9%8%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen moments ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Manchester City

  • Manchester City: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.4 and conceded 0.8 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W3–0at Liverpool11 Oct · not in model evidence
  • W5–3v Sunderland20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Manchester United13 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Coventry5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1at Crystal Palace28 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Bournemouth23 Aug · in model evidence

Ipswich

  • Ipswich: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W2–1v Fulham10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Everton19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Crystal Palace12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Liverpool4 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–5at Manchester United30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Sunderland22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Total goals

0 goals2%
1 goal9%
2 goals17%
3 goals21%
4 goals19%
5 goals14%
6 or more17%
Over 1.589%
Over 2.572%
Over 3.551%
Both teams score53%

Manchester City

Expected goals2.91
Scores at least once95%
Scores 2 or more79%
Clean sheet44%

Ipswich

Expected goals0.82
Scores at least once56%
Scores 2 or more20%
Clean sheet5%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 24 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season1st v 9th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Manchester City

1st of 20 · 15 pts · W5 D0 L0 from 5 games · scored 13, conceded 5

Home W3 D0 L0 (scored 8, conceded 4) · Away W2 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WWWWW (most recent last)

Ipswich

9th of 20 · 9 pts · W3 D0 L3 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 12

Home W2 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 5, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games WLWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Ipswich to win (90 minutes)
8%
8%
YES on Ipswich to WinIpswich wins in 90 minutes
8%8¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 15,129 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Manchester City to win (90 minutes)
80%
80%
YES on Manchester City to WinManchester City wins in 90 minutes
80%80¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 19,841 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
13%
13%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
13%13¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 13,688 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawManchester City or Ipswich wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
87%88¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 9,576 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Ipswich to WinManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
92%93¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 14,835 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Manchester City to WinIpswich wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
20%21¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,585 contracts at the ask · quote just now

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
98%
98%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 24,484 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
2%4¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 325 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
89%
87%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
89%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 15 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
11%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,210 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
72%
70%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
72%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 587 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
28%32¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,913 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
51%
47%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
51%48¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
49%54¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,757 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
32%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
32%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,226 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
68%73¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,693 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
17%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
17%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,042 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
83%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,061 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
53%
52%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
53%53¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 6 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
47%49¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 696 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Winning margin
Ipswich to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Ipswich to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsIpswich wins by 2 goals or more
2%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 916 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Ipswich to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester City wins or the match is drawn, or Ipswich wins by 1 goal · Ipswich not by 2+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 465 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Ipswich to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
0%
—
Limited evidence · No Kalshi quote
YES on Ipswich to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsIpswich wins by 3 goals or more
0%20¢
No two-sided Kalshi quote, so no comparison · 5 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Ipswich to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester City wins or the match is drawn, or Ipswich wins by 2 goals or fewer · Ipswich not by 3+ goals
100%—
Kalshi NO price unavailable
Manchester City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
57%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester City wins by 2 goals or more
60%58¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Manchester City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsIpswich wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester City wins by 1 goal · Manchester City not by 2+ goals
40%44¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,326 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Manchester City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
39%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester City wins by 3 goals or more
39%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,551 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Manchester City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsIpswich wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester City wins by 2 goals or fewer · Manchester City not by 3+ goals
61%65¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,940 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 79.8% · draw 12.6% · away 7.6%
Expected goals
2.91 – 0.82
Manchester City eligible matches
119 (119 with xG)
Ipswich eligible matches
44 (44 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1198 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:58
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 09:30:10
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 10 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Manchester CityOpponentVenueScorexGResult
20 SeptSunderlandhome5–32.82–3.57W
13 SeptManchester Unitedaway1–01.10–1.00W
5 SeptCoventryhome1–02.12–1.37W
28 AugCrystal Palaceaway4–12.21–0.66W
23 AugBournemouthhome2–12.25–0.65W
24 MayAston Villahome1–21.34–1.77L
IpswichOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctFulhamhome2–11.22–1.87W
19 SeptEvertonaway0–11.44–2.24L
12 SeptCrystal Palaceaway3–21.67–0.62W
4 SeptLiverpoolhome0–20.75–0.69L
30 AugManchester Unitedaway2–52.01–4.56L
22 AugSunderlandhome2–11.80–0.66W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17MCIIPS-BTTS
52.9%52.0%+0.9 pts0.51 / 0.530.496 / 696Comparable
seen moments ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Ipswich to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS
7.6%7.5%+0.1 pts0.07 / 0.080.9315,129 / 14,835Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Manchester City to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI
79.8%79.5%+0.3 pts0.79 / 0.800.2119,841 / 6,585Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-TIE
12.6%12.5%+0.1 pts0.12 / 0.130.8813,688 / 9,576Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Ipswich to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS2
2.1%3.0%−0.9 pts0.01 / 0.050.99916 / 465Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Ipswich to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS3
0.5%——— / 0.20—5 / 0No two-sided Kalshi quote
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Manchester City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI2
60.4%57.0%+3.4 pts0.56 / 0.580.443 / 2,326Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Manchester City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI3
39.3%36.0%+3.3 pts0.35 / 0.370.651,551 / 4,940Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-1
97.6%97.5%+0.1 pts0.96 / 0.990.0424,484 / 325Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-2
88.7%87.0%+1.7 pts0.86 / 0.880.1415 / 2,210Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-3
72.0%69.5%+2.5 pts0.68 / 0.710.32587 / 5,913Comparable
seen moments ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-4
51.2%47.0%+4.2 pts0.46 / 0.480.540 / 3,757Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-5
31.9%28.5%+3.4 pts0.27 / 0.300.733,226 / 1,693Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-6
17.4%14.0%+3.4 pts0.12 / 0.160.881,042 / 2,061Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:06:01.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home75.7%73.3% – 77.3%80.0%1.251079.8%+4.1 pts
1x2:draw14.9%13.7% – 16.1%15.8%6.351012.6%−2.3 pts
1x2:away9.3%8.4% – 10.8%9.8%10.17107.6%−1.7 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:20.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.568.9%68.6% – 70.2%74.6%1.34772.0%+3.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.531.1%29.8% – 31.4%32.9%3.04728.0%−3.0 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:21.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 10.25 · draw 6.60 · home 1.2611/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 11.00 · draw 6.50 · home 1.2011/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 10.09 · draw 6.87 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 8.30 · draw 5.61 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 9.50 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 9.50 · draw 5.75 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 9.60 · draw 6.60 · home 1.2611/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 10.70 · draw 6.91 · home 1.2911/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 10.25 · draw 6.20 · home 1.2611/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 10.50 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:31:2011/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 3.0411/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.38 · under 2.5 3.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.1011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:06:01.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:08 (Last checked 24 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Manchester Cityok11/10/2026, 01:39:09 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Ipswichok11/10/2026, 01:39:10 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home79.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw12.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away7.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x92.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x220.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1287.4%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes52.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no47.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.597.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.52.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.588.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.511.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.572.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.528.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.551.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.548.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.531.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.568.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.517.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.582.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.578.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.521.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.555.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.544.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.533.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.566.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.556.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.544.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.519.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.580.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.599.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.539.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.560.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.560.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.539.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.579.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.520.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.592.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.57.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.597.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.52.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.599.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.50.5%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home91.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away8.7%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 338 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:06:01