Got%OnIt
Matches
Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT

NewcastlevAston Villa

Newcastle
47%
Draw
23%
Aston Villa
29%

Got%OnIt gives Newcastle a 47% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.8 goals for Newcastle and 1.3 for Aston Villa.
  • Newcastle won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a game.
  • Aston Villa won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Newcastle are 11th of 20 after 5 games; Aston Villa are 14th.
  • Newcastle have won 2 and lost 1; Aston Villa have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Newcastle

  • W2–1v Hull City19 Sept
  • L1–4at Leeds14 Sept
  • D2–2v Bournemouth5 Sept
  • W2–0at Tottenham29 Aug
  • D2–2v Liverpool23 Aug
  • L0–2at Fulham24 May

Aston Villa

  • D2–2v Brentford10 Oct
  • W3–2at Tottenham19 Sept
  • L1–2v Nottingham Forest12 Sept
  • D0–0at Hull City5 Sept
  • L0–1v Arsenal31 Aug
  • L0–4at Brighton23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT; snapshot 342, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Newcastle)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Aston Villa)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 07:59 PDT1198 finished Premier League matches (1198 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationNewcastle 1 absent regular · Aston Villa 2.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Newcastle

4.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Crystal Palace +7.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLH Hull CityW 2–1counted as workload
  • Mon 12 OctPLA CoventryNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctPLA Crystal Palace+7.9 d
  • Thu 29 OctEFLA Everton+12.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Dedic (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Newcastle: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. Murphy · regularM00—
Y. WissaM00—
M. Fernandez-PardoF000' Belgium, 11.9 d before
L. MileyD00—
S. Botman · regularD00—
L. Hall · regularD07272' England, 10.9 d before
S. SteurM00—
J. Willock · regularM00—
H. Barnes · regularM00—
M. Thiaw · regularD09090' Germany, 12.9 d before
L. HornicekG0900' Czechia, 13.9 d before; 90' Czechia, 10.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 252 minutes — L. Hall (72' England, 10.9 d before); M. Thiaw (90' Germany, 12.9 d before); L. Hornicek (0' Czechia, 13.9 d before; 90' Czechia, 10.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Aston Villa

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Viking +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.9 d before (H Fenerbahçe) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLA TottenhamW 3–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH BrentfordD 2–2counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLH FenerbahçeNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Viking+4.1 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLH Manchester City+6.8 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLA Bournemouth+11.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: I. Maatsen (D) — reason unknown; G. Hemmings (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Aston Villa: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. Buendía · regularM064—
M. RuggeriD010156' Italy, 11.9 d before
T. MingsD090—
B. Kamara · regularM090—
Z. SuzukiG090—
M. CashD015363' Poland, 11.9 d before
João GomesM086—
J. McGinn · regularM026790' Scotland, 13.9 d before; 87' Scotland, 10.9 d before
J. ManzambiM022190' Switzerland, 13.9 d before; 45' Switzerland, 10.9 d before
N. JacksonF090—
V. Lindelöf · regularD018090' Sweden, 11.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 521 minutes — M. Ruggeri (56' Italy, 11.9 d before); M. Cash (63' Poland, 11.9 d before); J. McGinn (90' Scotland, 13.9 d before; 87' Scotland, 10.9 d before); J. Manzambi (90' Switzerland, 13.9 d before; 45' Switzerland, 10.9 d before); V. Lindelöf (90' Sweden, 11.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Newcastle47%45%46%
Draw23%25%26%
Aston Villa29%29%30%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen moments ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Newcastle

  • Newcastle: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W2–1v Hull City19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at Leeds14 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Bournemouth5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Tottenham29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Liverpool23 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Fulham24 May · in model evidence

Aston Villa

  • Aston Villa: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • D2–2v Brentford10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Tottenham19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Nottingham Forest12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Hull City5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Arsenal31 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–4at Brighton23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal14%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals11%
6 or more9%
Over 1.581%
Over 2.560%
Over 3.537%
Both teams score61%

Newcastle

Expected goals1.76
Scores at least once83%
Scores 2 or more52%
Clean sheet26%

Aston Villa

Expected goals1.33
Scores at least once74%
Scores 2 or more39%
Clean sheet17%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 24 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season11th v 14th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Newcastle

11th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L1 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 9

Home W1 D2 L0 (scored 6, conceded 5) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WLDWD (most recent last)

Aston Villa

14th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L3 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 11

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 3, conceded 5) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 6 games

Last five league games DWLDL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Aston Villa to win (90 minutes)
29%
30%
YES on Aston Villa to WinAston Villa wins in 90 minutes
29%30¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,559 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Newcastle to win (90 minutes)
47%
46%
YES on Newcastle to WinNewcastle wins in 90 minutes
47%46¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,564 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
23%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
23%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 9,490 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawNewcastle or Aston Villa wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
77%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 530 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Aston Villa to WinNewcastle wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
71%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,816 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Newcastle to WinAston Villa wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
53%55¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,036 contracts at the ask · quote just now

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 368 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 732 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
81%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
81%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 699 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
19%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,142 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
60%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
60%61¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,204 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
40%42¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,734 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
37%
37%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
37%38¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,194 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
63%64¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,177 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
20%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
20%21¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,193 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
80%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 740 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
9%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,196 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
91%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,528 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
61%
62%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
61%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 691 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
39%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,039 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Winning margin
Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAston Villa wins by 2 goals or more
13%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,300 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNewcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 1 goal · Aston Villa not by 2+ goals
87%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,530 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAston Villa wins by 3 goals or more
4%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 946 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNewcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 2 goals or fewer · Aston Villa not by 3+ goals
96%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,943 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
26%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNewcastle wins by 2 goals or more
26%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 507 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Newcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 1 goal · Newcastle not by 2+ goals
74%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 792 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNewcastle wins by 3 goals or more
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,299 contracts at the ask · quote just now
NO on Newcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 2 goals or fewer · Newcastle not by 3+ goals
89%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,745 contracts at the ask · quote just now
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 47.5% · draw 23.3% · away 29.2%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.33
Newcastle eligible matches
119 (119 with xG)
Aston Villa eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1198 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:58
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 09:30:10
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 10 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

NewcastleOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptHull Cityhome2–11.44–1.59W
14 SeptLeedsaway1–40.88–2.08L
5 SeptBournemouthhome2–20.71–1.37D
29 AugTottenhamaway2–00.72–1.12W
23 AugLiverpoolhome2–21.58–2.98D
24 MayFulhamaway0–20.31–1.81L
Aston VillaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBrentfordhome2–21.84–1.31D
19 SeptTottenhamaway3–21.16–1.56W
12 SeptNottingham Foresthome1–20.82–2.28L
5 SeptHull Cityaway0–01.93–0.57D
31 AugArsenalhome0–10.33–1.04L
23 AugBrightonaway0–40.29–3.77L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17NEWAVL-BTTS
61.0%61.5%−0.5 pts0.60 / 0.630.40691 / 2,039Comparable
seen moments ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Aston Villa to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL
29.2%29.5%−0.3 pts0.29 / 0.300.714,559 / 2,816Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW
47.5%45.5%+2.0 pts0.45 / 0.460.554,564 / 2,036Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-TIE
23.3%25.5%−2.2 pts0.25 / 0.260.759,490 / 530Comparable
seen moments ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL2
12.6%12.5%+0.1 pts0.11 / 0.140.891,300 / 1,530Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL3
4.4%5.0%−0.6 pts0.03 / 0.070.97946 / 1,943Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW2
25.7%23.0%+2.7 pts0.22 / 0.240.78507 / 792Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW3
11.3%9.5%+1.8 pts0.08 / 0.110.921,299 / 1,745Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-1
95.5%94.5%+1.0 pts0.94 / 0.950.06368 / 732Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-2
81.4%81.0%+0.4 pts0.80 / 0.820.20699 / 1,142Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-3
59.7%59.5%+0.2 pts0.58 / 0.610.422,204 / 1,734Comparable
seen moments ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-4
37.3%37.0%+0.3 pts0.36 / 0.380.641,194 / 2,177Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-5
20.0%19.5%+0.5 pts0.18 / 0.210.821,193 / 740Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-6
9.3%8.5%+0.8 pts0.07 / 0.100.931,196 / 1,528Comparable
seen moments ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:06:10.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home45.3%43.6% – 45.6%47.6%2.101047.5%+2.2 pts
1x2:draw25.1%24.5% – 26.1%26.5%3.771023.3%−1.8 pts
1x2:away29.5%28.7% – 31.1%31.0%3.231029.2%−0.3 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:22.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.558.9%58.7% – 59.8%61.7%1.62759.7%+0.8 pts
total_goals:under:2.541.1%40.2% – 41.3%43.1%2.32740.3%−0.8 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:22.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.26 · draw 3.82 · home 2.1111/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.00 · draw 3.80 · home 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.80 · home 2.1111/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.92 · draw 3.39 · home 2.0311/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.60 · home 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.60 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.75 · home 2.0911/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.34 · draw 3.92 · home 2.1711/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.80 · home 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.13 · draw 3.70 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3211/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3711/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.56 · under 2.5 2.2311/10/2026, 09:31:2211/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:06:10.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:09 (Last checked 24 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Newcastleok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Aston Villaok11/10/2026, 01:39:12 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home47.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw23.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away29.2%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x70.8%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x252.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1276.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes61.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no39.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.581.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.518.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.559.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.540.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.537.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.562.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.520.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.580.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.590.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.582.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.517.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.552.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.547.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.525.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.574.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.510.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.589.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.573.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.526.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.538.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.561.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.515.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.584.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.54.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.595.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.511.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.588.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.525.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.574.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.547.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.552.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.570.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.529.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.587.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.512.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home61.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away38.1%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 342 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:06:10