Aston Villav
Manchester City
Got%OnIt has no estimate for this match yet. The forward horizon has not reached it; nothing is estimated in its place. Kalshi prices below are shown on their own.
Worth knowing: We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
Recent developments
Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.
No frozen prediction for this match, so nothing can be dated against one.
Team situationAston Villa 2.7 d rest (short) · Manchester City 3.7 d rest (short)
Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.
Used in the model
- finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
- the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED
The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.
Context not yet proven to improve predictions
Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.
Aston Villa
2.7 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 4 in 14, 4 in 30 · 3 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED
Next: League Cup A Bournemouth +4.3 d
Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.7 d before (H Viking) CONFIRMED
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Sat 10 OctPLH BrentfordD 2–2counted as workload
- Wed 14 OctUCLH FenerbahçeNScounted as scheduled workload
- Sat 17 OctPLA NewcastleNScounted as scheduled workload
- Wed 21 OctUCLH VikingNScounted as scheduled workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Wed 28 OctEFLA Bournemouth+4.3 d
- Sat 31 OctPLH Fulham+7.4 d
- Tue 3 NovUCLA Barcelona+10.4 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 60 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: I. Maatsen (D) — reason unknown; G. Hemmings (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Lindelöf · regular | D | 0 | 90 | — |
| B. Kamara · regular | M | 0 | 90 | — |
| João Gomes | M | 0 | 86 | — |
| J. McGinn · regular | M | 0 | 90 | — |
| J. Manzambi | M | 0 | 86 | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 0 | 90 | — |
| M. Cash | D | 0 | 90 | — |
| Z. Suzuki | G | 0 | 90 | — |
| E. Buendía · regular | M | 0 | 64 | — |
| M. Ruggeri | D | 0 | 45 | — |
| T. Mings | D | 0 | 90 | — |
International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED
Manchester City
3.7 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 4 in 14, 4 in 30 · 3 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED
Next: League Cup H Brighton +4.3 d
Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.7 d before (H AEK Athens FC) CONFIRMED
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Sun 11 OctPLA LiverpoolW 3–0counted as workload
- Wed 14 OctUCLH Paris Saint GermainNScounted as scheduled workload
- Sat 17 OctPLH IpswichNScounted as scheduled workload
- Tue 20 OctUCLH AEK Athens FCNScounted as scheduled workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Wed 28 OctEFLH Brighton+4.3 d
- Sat 31 OctPLH Brighton+7.1 d
- Wed 4 NovUCLA RB Leipzig+11.4 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 64 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: P. Foden (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Donnarumma · regular | G | 0 | 90 | — |
| E. Haaland · regular | F | 0 | 80 | — |
| A. Semenyo · regular | M | 0 | 90 | — |
| E. Fernández | M | 0 | 80 | — |
| N. O'Reilly | D | 0 | 66 | — |
| E. Anderson · regular | M | 0 | 90 | — |
| M. Guéhi · regular | D | 0 | 90 | — |
| R. Cherki · regular | M | 0 | 90 | — |
| I. Ndiaye | M | 0 | 56 | — |
| Rúben Dias · regular | D | 0 | 90 | — |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 0 | 90 | — |
International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED
Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED
No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.
Starting line-ups UNKNOWN
Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.
Unknown or unavailable
- Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
- International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
- A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
- The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
- Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
- Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN
Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.
Pregame comparison
What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.
| Outcome | Got%OnIt | Books | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | — | — | 19% |
| Draw | — | — | 22% |
| Manchester City | — | — | 60% |
Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed
Observed — results as they happened
Aston Villa
- Aston Villa: 10 finished matches (0 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
- Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 80%.
- D2–2v Brentford10 Oct · not in model evidence
- W3–2at Tottenham19 Sept · not in model evidence
- L1–2v Nottingham Forest12 Sept · not in model evidence
- D0–0at Hull City5 Sept · not in model evidence
- L0–1v Arsenal31 Aug · not in model evidence
- L0–4at Brighton23 Aug · not in model evidence
Manchester City
- Manchester City: 10 finished matches (0 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 2.4 and conceded 0.8 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
- Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
- W3–0at Liverpool11 Oct · not in model evidence
- W5–3v Sunderland20 Sept · not in model evidence
- W1–0at Manchester United13 Sept · not in model evidence
- W1–0v Coventry5 Sept · not in model evidence
- W4–1at Crystal Palace28 Aug · not in model evidence
- W2–1v Bournemouth23 Aug · not in model evidence
observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from
No frozen estimate for this match, so no model scoring figures are shown.
Player availabilitynot available
Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.
We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.
A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.
Starting lineupsnot received
Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.
This season14th v 1st
This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.
Aston Villa
14th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L3 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 11
Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 3, conceded 5) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 6)
Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 6 games
Last five league games DWLDL (most recent last)
Manchester City
1st of 20 · 15 pts · W5 D0 L0 from 5 games · scored 13, conceded 5
Home W3 D0 L0 (scored 8, conceded 4) · Away W2 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1)
Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 5 games
Last five league games WWWWW (most recent last)
Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.
All markets3 Kalshi contracts
Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.
Aston Villa to win (90 minutes)—19%No Got%OnIt estimate
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Manchester City to win (90 minutes)—60%No Got%OnIt estimate
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Draw (90 minutes)—22%No Got%OnIt estimate
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence
Model snapshot
No frozen snapshot for this fixture.
Kalshi contracts and the model
3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).
| Match winner | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-AVL | — | 19.0% | — | 0.18 / 0.20 | 0.82 | 2,639 / 120 | No prediction yet seen 29 min ago |
| Manchester City to win (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-MCI | — | 59.5% | — | 0.59 / 0.60 | 0.41 | 175 / 10 | No prediction yet seen 29 min ago |
| Draw | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-TIE | — | 21.5% | — | 0.21 / 0.22 | 0.79 | 529 / 147 | No prediction yet seen 29 min ago |
Bookmaker consensus
median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:07:00.
| Match result | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
| 1x2:draw | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
| 1x2:away | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
No pages observed.
| Total goals, 2.5 line | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| total_goals:over:2.5 | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
No pages observed.
Sports evidence trail
availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:07:00.
| Dataset | State | Observed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Injuries | not_observed | — | |
| Lineups | not_observed | — | before the window |
| Standings | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago) | fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026 |
| Season statistics · Aston Villa | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:12 (Last checked 19 h ago) | fresh |
| Season statistics · Manchester City | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:09 (Last checked 19 h ago) | fresh |
Snapshot — · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:07:00