Manchester Unitedv
Bournemouth
Got%OnIt has no estimate for this match yet. The forward horizon has not reached it; nothing is estimated in its place. Kalshi prices below are shown on their own.
Worth knowing: We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
Recent developments
Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.
No frozen prediction for this match, so nothing can be dated against one.
Team situationManchester United 3.9 d rest (short) · Bournemouth 2.8 d rest (short)
Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.
Used in the model
- finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
- the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED
The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.
Context not yet proven to improve predictions
Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.
Manchester United
3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 3 in 14, 4 in 30 · 3 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 3 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED
Next: Premier League A Chelsea +5.9 d
Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.9 d before (A Como) CONFIRMED
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Sat 10 OctPLH TottenhamD 1–1counted as workload
- Tue 13 OctUCLA Atletico MadridNScounted as scheduled workload
- Sun 18 OctPLA LeedsNScounted as scheduled workload
- Wed 21 OctUCLA ComoNScounted as scheduled workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sat 31 OctPLA Chelsea+5.9 d
- Tue 3 NovUCLH AS Roma+9.2 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 43 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Mbeumo · regular | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| Bruno Fernandes · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| A. Diallo | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| K. Mainoo · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| L. Yoro | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| Matheus Cunha · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| Y. Tielemans · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| L. Shaw · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| Lisandro Martínez · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| H. Maguire · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| S. Lammens · regular | G | 0 | 0 | — |
International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED
Bournemouth
2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 3 in 14, 4 in 30 · 3 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED
Next: League Cup H Aston Villa +3.2 d
Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (H AC Milan) CONFIRMED
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Sat 10 OctPLA ChelseaL 1–5counted as workload
- Thu 15 OctUELH Sturm GrazNScounted as scheduled workload
- Sun 18 OctPLH SunderlandNScounted as scheduled workload
- Thu 22 OctUELH AC MilanNScounted as scheduled workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Wed 28 OctEFLH Aston Villa+3.2 d
- Sat 31 OctPLH Leeds+6 d
- Thu 5 NovUELA Sparta Praha+11.2 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 43 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Scott (M) — reason unknown; J. Kluivert (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Truffert · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| T. Adams · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| Rayan · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| Evanilson · regular | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| D. Brooks | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| R. Christie | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| António Silva · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| A. Smith · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| Đ. Petrović · regular | G | 0 | 0 | — |
| J. Hill · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| M. Tavernier · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED
Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED
No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.
Starting line-ups UNKNOWN
Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.
Unknown or unavailable
- Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
- International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
- A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
- The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
- Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
- Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN
Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.
Pregame comparison
What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.
| Outcome | Got%OnIt | Books | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | — | — | 54% |
| Draw | — | — | 23% |
| Bournemouth | — | — | 24% |
Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed
Observed — results as they happened
Manchester United
- Manchester United: 10 finished matches (0 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
- Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
- D1–1v Tottenham10 Oct · not in model evidence
- D1–1at Fulham20 Sept · not in model evidence
- L0–1v Manchester City13 Sept · not in model evidence
- D2–2at Everton6 Sept · not in model evidence
- W5–2v Ipswich30 Aug · not in model evidence
- L0–2at Hull City22 Aug · not in model evidence
Bournemouth
- Bournemouth: 10 finished matches (0 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
- Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
- L1–5at Chelsea10 Oct · not in model evidence
- L0–1v Liverpool20 Sept · not in model evidence
- D2–2v Brentford12 Sept · not in model evidence
- D2–2at Newcastle5 Sept · not in model evidence
- D1–1v Everton29 Aug · not in model evidence
- L1–2at Manchester City23 Aug · not in model evidence
observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from
No frozen estimate for this match, so no model scoring figures are shown.
Player availabilitynot available
Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.
We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.
A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.
Starting lineupsnot received
Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.
This season12th v 17th
This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.
Manchester United
12th of 20 · 6 pts · W1 D3 L2 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 9
Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 6, conceded 4) · Away W0 D2 L1 (scored 3, conceded 5)
Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 6 games
Last five league games DDLDW (most recent last)
Bournemouth
17th of 20 · 3 pts · W0 D3 L3 from 6 games · scored 7, conceded 13
Home W0 D2 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 9)
Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 6 games
Last five league games LLDDD (most recent last)
Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.
All markets3 Kalshi contracts
Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.
Bournemouth to win (90 minutes)—24%No Got%OnIt estimate
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Manchester United to win (90 minutes)—54%No Got%OnIt estimate
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Draw (90 minutes)—23%No Got%OnIt estimate
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence
Model snapshot
No frozen snapshot for this fixture.
Kalshi contracts and the model
3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).
| Match winner | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-BOU | — | 23.5% | — | 0.22 / 0.25 | 0.78 | 3,601 / 1,835 | No prediction yet seen moments ago |
| Manchester United to win (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-MUN | — | 53.5% | — | 0.52 / 0.55 | 0.48 | 3,471 / 129 | No prediction yet seen moments ago |
| Draw | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (90 minutes) KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-TIE | — | 23.0% | — | 0.22 / 0.24 | 0.78 | 2,000 / 128 | No prediction yet seen moments ago |
Bookmaker consensus
median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:05:36.
| Match result | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
| 1x2:draw | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
| 1x2:away | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
No pages observed.
| Total goals, 2.5 line | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| total_goals:over:2.5 | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | — | — |
No pages observed.
Sports evidence trail
availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:05:36.
| Dataset | State | Observed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Injuries | not_observed | — | |
| Lineups | not_observed | — | before the window |
| Standings | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026 |
| Season statistics · Manchester United | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh |
| Season statistics · Bournemouth | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:07 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh |
Snapshot — · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:05:36