Levantev
Athletic Club
Got%OnIt gives Athletic Club a 38% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.
Worth knowing: We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
Recent developments
Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.
Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.
Why
What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.
Used by the model
- The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
- On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Levante and 1.4 for Athletic Club.
- Levante won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.
- Athletic Club won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 a game.
What argues against it
- We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
- Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
- The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.
Not used by the model · context
- Levante are 17th of 20 after 6 games; Athletic Club are 9th.
- Levante have won 1 and lost 3; Athletic Club have won 2 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used
Levante
- L1–3at Villarreal20 Sept
- L2–4v Barcelona13 Sept
- D0–0at Malaga6 Sept
- W5–2v Real Betis29 Aug
- D0–0at Osasuna24 Aug
- L0–3at Espanyol16 Aug
Athletic Club
- D0–0v Alaves19 Sept
- D1–1v Elche12 Sept
- W3–0v Atletico Madrid5 Sept
- W2–0at Celta Vigo30 Aug
- L0–2at Barcelona27 Aug
- L1–3v Sevilla22 Aug
It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.
What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT
The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 635, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.
- Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Athletic Club)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Levante)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-21T18:00:00+00:00, status NS
- Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
- Observation time unknowninjury reporttime unknownnot collected for this match
- Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLevante 5 d rest · Athletic Club 4.0 d rest (short)
Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.
Used in the model
- finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
- the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED
The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.
Context not yet proven to improve predictions
Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.
Levante
5 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 2 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED
Next: La Liga A Real Sociedad +4 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Mon 12 OctLLH SevillaNScounted as scheduled workload
- Fri 16 OctLLA Deportivo La CorunaNScounted as scheduled workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sun 25 OctLLA Real Sociedad+4 d
- Wed 28 OctCdRA Tarancón+7 d
- Sat 31 OctLLH Atletico Madrid+9.8 d
Players
Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 20 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 43 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 6 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sanchez · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| R. Brugue | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| O. Rey | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| E. Bardeli | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| A. Mandi | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| Dela · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| J. Toljan · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| M. Ryan · regular | G | 0 | 0 | — |
| T. Fernandez | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| I. Romero · regular | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| J. A. Olasagasti · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED
Athletic Club
4 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 1 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED
Next: La Liga H Getafe +3.8 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Sat 10 OctLLA Rayo VallecanoINTINT
- Sat 17 OctLLA ValenciaNScounted as scheduled workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sun 25 OctLLH Getafe+3.8 d
- Sun 1 NovLLH Real Sociedad+11.1 d
Players
Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 53 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: G. Guruzeta (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Ruiz de Galarreta · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| A. Paredes | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| J. Louis-Jean | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| U. Simon · regular | G | 0 | 0 | — |
| Y. Berchiche · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| O. Sancet · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| I. Williams · regular | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| N. Williams | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| R. Navarro · regular | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| M. Jauregizar | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| A. Laporte · regular | D | 0 | 0 | — |
International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED
Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED
No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.
Starting line-ups UNKNOWN
Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.
Unknown or unavailable
- Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
- International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
- A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
- The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
- Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
- Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN
Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.
Pregame comparison
What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.
| Outcome | Got%OnIt | Books | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 36% | — | — |
| Draw | 26% | — | — |
| Athletic Club | 38% | — | — |
Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate
Observed — results as they happened
Levante
- Levante: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 1.7 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
- Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
- L1–3at Villarreal20 Sept · in model evidence
- L2–4v Barcelona13 Sept · in model evidence
- D0–0at Malaga6 Sept · in model evidence
- W5–2v Real Betis29 Aug · in model evidence
- D0–0at Osasuna24 Aug · in model evidence
- L0–3at Espanyol16 Aug · in model evidence
Athletic Club
- Athletic Club: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
- Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 30%.
- D0–0v Alaves19 Sept · in model evidence
- D1–1v Elche12 Sept · in model evidence
- W3–0v Atletico Madrid5 Sept · in model evidence
- W2–0at Celta Vigo30 Aug · in model evidence
- L0–2at Barcelona27 Aug · in model evidence
- L1–3v Sevilla22 Aug · in model evidence
observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from
Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT
Total goals
| 0 goals | 7% |
| 1 goal | 18% |
| 2 goals | 25% |
| 3 goals | 22% |
| 4 goals | 15% |
| 5 goals | 8% |
| 6 or more | 5% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% |
| Both teams score | 54% |
Levante
| Expected goals | 1.31 |
| Scores at least once | 73% |
| Scores 2 or more | 38% |
| Clean sheet | 26% |
Athletic Club
| Expected goals | 1.36 |
| Scores at least once | 74% |
| Scores 2 or more | 39% |
| Clean sheet | 27% |
model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since
Player availabilitynot available
Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.
We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.
A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.
Starting lineupsnot received
Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.
This season17th v 9th
This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.
Levante
17th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L3 from 6 games · scored 8, conceded 12
Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 7, conceded 6) · Away W0 D2 L2 (scored 1, conceded 6)
Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 3 in 6 games
Last five league games LLDWD (most recent last)
Athletic Club
9th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L2 from 6 games · scored 7, conceded 6
Home W1 D2 L1 (scored 5, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 2)
Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 2 in 6 games
Last five league games DDWWL (most recent last)
Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.
All marketsnone matched
Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.
No Kalshi contracts are matched to this fixture.
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence
Model snapshot
- Probabilities
- home 36.0% · draw 26.0% · away 38.0%
- Expected goals
- 1.31 – 1.36
- Levante eligible matches
- 44 (44 with xG)
- Athletic Club eligible matches
- 120 (120 with xG)
- Competition matches in the evidence set
- 1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
- xG weight
- 0.5
- Cutoff
- 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
- Maturity
- historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
- Flags
- none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
- draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
- xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
- Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
- evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
- historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
- draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
Matches the model used (most recent first)
the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.
| Levante | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept | Villarreal | away | 1–3 | 0.45–4.27 | L |
| 13 Sept | Barcelona | home | 2–4 | 2.42–2.58 | L |
| 6 Sept | Malaga | away | 0–0 | 0.81–1.46 | D |
| 29 Aug | Real Betis | home | 5–2 | 2.76–1.92 | W |
| 24 Aug | Osasuna | away | 0–0 | 1.28–0.70 | D |
| 16 Aug | Espanyol | away | 0–3 | 0.28–1.55 | L |
| Athletic Club | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sept | Alaves | home | 0–0 | 1.62–0.05 | D |
| 12 Sept | Elche | home | 1–1 | 2.39–0.84 | D |
| 5 Sept | Atletico Madrid | home | 3–0 | 1.41–1.02 | W |
| 30 Aug | Celta Vigo | away | 2–0 | 2.78–0.75 | W |
| 27 Aug | Barcelona | away | 0–2 | 0.25–4.23 | L |
| 22 Aug | Sevilla | home | 1–3 | 1.25–0.41 | L |
Kalshi contracts and the model
No Kalshi event matched to this fixture.
Bookmaker consensus
median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:07:39.
| Match result | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 36.0% | — |
| 1x2:draw | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 26.0% | — |
| 1x2:away | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 38.0% | — |
No pages observed.
| Total goals, 2.5 line | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| total_goals:over:2.5 | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 49.9% | — |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | — | — | — | — | 0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3) | 50.1% | — |
No pages observed.
Sports evidence trail
availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:07:39.
| Dataset | State | Observed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Injuries | not_observed | — | |
| Lineups | not_observed | — | before the window |
| Standings | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026 |
| Season statistics · Levante | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:15 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh |
| Season statistics · Athletic Club | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:13 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh |
Every stored market probability of the snapshot
Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.
| Key | Probability | Support | Historical evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | 36.0% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:draw | 26.0% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:away | 38.0% | supported | primary_target |
| double_chance:1x | 62.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| double_chance:x2 | 64.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| double_chance:12 | 74.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| btts:yes | 54.3% | supported | supported_not_validated |
| btts:no | 45.7% | supported | supported_not_validated |
| total_goals:over:0.5 | 93.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:0.5 | 6.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:over:1.5 | 74.6% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:1.5 | 25.4% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:over:2.5 | 49.9% | supported | encouraging |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | 50.1% | supported | encouraging |
| total_goals:over:3.5 | 27.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:3.5 | 72.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:over:4.5 | 13.3% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:4.5 | 86.7% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:over:5.5 | 5.4% | supported | not_evaluated |
| total_goals:under:5.5 | 94.6% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:over:0.5 | 73.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:under:0.5 | 26.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:over:1.5 | 37.8% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:under:1.5 | 62.2% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:over:2.5 | 14.6% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:under:2.5 | 85.4% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:over:3.5 | 4.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:home:under:3.5 | 95.5% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:over:0.5 | 74.3% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:under:0.5 | 25.7% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:over:1.5 | 39.3% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:under:1.5 | 60.7% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:over:2.5 | 15.6% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:under:2.5 | 84.4% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:over:3.5 | 4.9% | supported | not_evaluated |
| team_total:away:under:3.5 | 95.1% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:-2.5 | 5.6% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:+2.5 | 94.4% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:-1.5 | 16.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:+1.5 | 84.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:-0.5 | 36.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:+0.5 | 64.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:+0.5 | 62.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:-0.5 | 38.0% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:+1.5 | 82.6% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:-1.5 | 17.4% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:home:+2.5 | 93.8% | supported | not_evaluated |
| spread:away:-2.5 | 6.2% | supported | not_evaluated |
| draw_no_bet:home | 48.7% | supported | not_evaluated |
| draw_no_bet:away | 51.3% | supported | not_evaluated |
Snapshot 635 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:07:39