La Liga·Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT

Celta VigovAlaves

Celta Vigo

47%

Draw

27%

Alaves

26%

Got%OnIt gives Celta Vigo a 47% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.4 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.0 for Alaves.
Celta Vigo won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 a game.
Alaves won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Celta Vigo are 15th of 20 after 7 games; Alaves are 6th.
Celta Vigo have won 1 and lost 2; Alaves have won 3 and lost 3.

Recent matches the model used

Celta Vigo

D0–0at Elche11 Oct
W5–0v Racing Santander19 Sept
D1–1v Malaga13 Sept
D1–1at Getafe7 Sept
D0–0at Real Sociedad3 Sept
L0–2v Athletic Club30 Aug

Alaves

L1–2v Atletico Madrid10 Oct
D0–0at Athletic Club19 Sept
L0–1v Valencia15 Sept
L1–2at Racing Santander12 Sept
W5–2v Osasuna6 Sept
W1–0v Villarreal28 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 601, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Celta Vigo)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Alaves)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T14:15:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationCelta Vigo 2.8 d rest (short) · Alaves 8 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Celta Vigo

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A Celtic +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (H Juventus) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptLLH Racing SantanderW 5–0counted as workload
Sun 11 OctLLA ElcheD 0–0counted as workload
Thu 15 OctUELH JuventusNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Thu 22 OctUELA Celtic+4.2 d
Sun 25 OctLLH Real Betis+7 d
Wed 28 OctCdRA Salamanca UDS+10.2 d
Sat 31 OctLLA Rayo Vallecano+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 60 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Roman (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Celta Vigo: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Hugo Álvarez	F	71	—
Ferran Jutglà · regular	F	71	—
Aleix Febas	M	83	—
Marcos Alonso · regular	D	90	—
I. Radu · regular	G	90	0' Romania, 12.8 d before
Álvaro Núñez	D	90	—
Yoel Lago · regular	D	90	—
Javi Rueda · regular	M	90	—
Pablo Durán	F	60	—
I. Moriba · regular	M	90	—
Javi Galán	M	71	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Alaves

8 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Malaga +5.2 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptLLA Athletic ClubD 0–0counted as workload
Sat 10 OctLLH Atletico MadridL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Fri 23 OctLLH Malaga+5.2 d
Wed 28 OctCdRA Anaitasuna+10.2 d
Sat 31 OctLLA Barcelona+13.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Alaves: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
N. Tenaglia · regular	D	90	—
L. Boyé · regular	F	64	—
Toni Martínez · regular	F	64	—
A. Rebbach · regular	M	90	—
Pablo Ibáñez · regular	M	90	—
Antonio Blanco · regular	M	64	—
N. Valentini	D	71	—
Sivera · regular	G	90	—
Denis Suárez	M	79	—
Angel Pérez · regular	M	90	—
Jonny · regular	D	90	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Celta Vigo	47%	47%	48%
Draw	27%	28%	28%
Alaves	26%	25%	24%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 30 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.0 and conceded 0.7 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 20%.

D0–0at Elche11 Oct · in model evidence
W5–0v Racing Santander19 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1v Malaga13 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1at Getafe7 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0at Real Sociedad3 Sept · in model evidence
L0–2v Athletic Club30 Aug · in model evidence

Alaves

Alaves: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.4 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 50%.

L1–2v Atletico Madrid10 Oct · in model evidence
D0–0at Athletic Club19 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1v Valencia15 Sept · in model evidence
L1–2at Racing Santander12 Sept · in model evidence
W5–2v Osasuna6 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0v Villarreal28 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	9%
1 goal	22%
2 goals	26%
3 goals	21%
4 goals	13%
5 goals	6%
6 or more	4%
Over 1.5	69%
Over 2.5	43%
Over 3.5	22%
Both teams score	48%

Celta Vigo

Expected goals	1.42
Scores at least once	76%
Scores 2 or more	42%
Clean sheet	37%

Alaves

Expected goals	0.98
Scores at least once	63%
Scores 2 or more	26%
Clean sheet	24%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season15th v 6th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Celta Vigo

15th of 20 · 7 pts · W1 D4 L2 from 7 games · scored 8, conceded 6

Home W1 D1 L2 (scored 7, conceded 5) · Away W0 D3 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 3 in 7 games

Last five league games WDDDL (most recent last)

Alaves

6th of 20 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L3 from 8 games · scored 12, conceded 8

Home W3 D0 L2 (scored 10, conceded 5) · Away W0 D2 L1 (scored 2, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 2 in 8 games

Last five league games LDLLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Alaves to win (90 minutes)

26%

24%

YES on Alaves to WinAlaves wins in 90 minutes

26%25¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 645 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Celta Vigo to win (90 minutes)

47%

48%

YES on Celta Vigo to WinCelta Vigo wins in 90 minutes

47%49¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,127 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

27%

28%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

27%30¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 7,857 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawCelta Vigo or Alaves wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

73%73¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 739 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Alaves to WinCelta Vigo wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

74%77¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,051 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Celta Vigo to WinAlaves wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

53%54¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,038 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

91%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

91%92¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 738 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

9%11¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 725 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

69%

70%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

69%71¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 9 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

31%31¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 714 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

43%

45%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

43%46¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 706 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

57%57¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,110 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

22%

24%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

22%25¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,473 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

78%78¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,123 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

10%11¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 711 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

90%91¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,050 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

4%6¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 44 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

96%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

48%

51%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

48%52¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,796 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

52%51¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 737 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Winning margin

Alaves to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Alaves to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAlaves wins by 2 goals or more

9%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 712 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Alaves to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCelta Vigo wins or the match is drawn, or Alaves wins by 1 goal · Alaves not by 2+ goals

91%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Alaves to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Alaves to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAlaves wins by 3 goals or more

3%8¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Alaves to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCelta Vigo wins or the match is drawn, or Alaves wins by 2 goals or fewer · Alaves not by 3+ goals

97%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,500 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Celta Vigo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

23%

Limited evidence

YES on Celta Vigo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCelta Vigo wins by 2 goals or more

23%24¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 707 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Celta Vigo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAlaves wins or the match is drawn, or Celta Vigo wins by 1 goal · Celta Vigo not by 2+ goals

77%79¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,533 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Celta Vigo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Celta Vigo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCelta Vigo wins by 3 goals or more

9%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 712 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Celta Vigo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAlaves wins or the match is drawn, or Celta Vigo wins by 2 goals or fewer · Celta Vigo not by 3+ goals

91%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 31 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 47.1% · draw 26.8% · away 26.1%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 0.98
Celta Vigo eligible matches: 122 (122 with xG)
Alaves eligible matches: 122 (122 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: none

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Celta Vigo	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Elche	away	0–0	0.34–0.69	D
19 Sept	Racing Santander	home	5–0	2.14–0.75	W
13 Sept	Malaga	home	1–1	1.90–0.43	D
7 Sept	Getafe	away	1–1	1.03–0.65	D
3 Sept	Real Sociedad	away	0–0	0.43–1.05	D
30 Aug	Athletic Club	home	0–2	0.75–2.78	L

Alaves	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Atletico Madrid	home	1–2	1.13–2.06	L
19 Sept	Athletic Club	away	0–0	0.05–1.62	D
15 Sept	Valencia	home	0–1	1.05–0.65	L
12 Sept	Racing Santander	away	1–2	1.98–2.01	L
6 Sept	Osasuna	home	5–2	1.20–1.64	W
28 Aug	Villarreal	home	1–0	0.81–1.40	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18RCCALA-BTTS	47.5%	50.5%	−3.0 pts	0.49 / 0.52	0.51	4,796 / 737	Comparable seen 30 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Alaves to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA	26.1%	24.0%	+2.1 pts	0.23 / 0.25	0.77	645 / 1,051	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Celta Vigo to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC	47.1%	47.5%	−0.4 pts	0.46 / 0.49	0.54	4,127 / 1,038	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-TIE	26.8%	28.5%	−1.7 pts	0.27 / 0.30	0.73	7,857 / 739	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Alaves to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA2	9.4%	8.0%	+1.4 pts	0.07 / 0.09	0.93	712 / 25	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Alaves to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA3	2.6%	4.5%	−1.9 pts	0.01 / 0.08	0.99	1 / 1,500	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Celta Vigo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC2	23.0%	22.5%	+0.5 pts	0.21 / 0.24	0.79	707 / 1,533	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Celta Vigo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC3	8.8%	8.5%	+0.3 pts	0.07 / 0.10	0.93	712 / 31	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-1	91.0%	90.5%	+0.5 pts	0.89 / 0.92	0.11	738 / 725	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-2	69.3%	70.0%	−0.7 pts	0.69 / 0.71	0.31	9 / 714	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-3	43.2%	44.5%	−1.3 pts	0.43 / 0.46	0.57	706 / 1,110	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-4	22.3%	23.5%	−1.2 pts	0.22 / 0.25	0.78	1,473 / 1,123	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-5	9.7%	10.0%	−0.3 pts	0.09 / 0.11	0.91	711 / 1,050	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-6	3.6%	4.0%	−0.4 pts	0.02 / 0.06	0.98	44 / 250	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:07:38.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	47.2%	44.5% – 47.8%	49.8%	2.01	10	47.1%	−0.1 pts
1x2:draw	27.8%	27.3% – 28.9%	29.4%	3.40	10	26.8%	−1.0 pts
1x2:away	25.1%	24.7% – 26.6%	26.5%	3.77	10	26.1%	+1.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:28.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	45.1%	44.6% – 46.4%	47.2%	2.12	7	43.2%	−1.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	54.9%	53.6% – 55.4%	57.8%	1.73	7	56.8%	+1.9 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:28.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 3.84 · draw 3.48 · home 2.02	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Betfair	Match winner	away 3.70 · draw 3.40 · home 1.95	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 3.86 · draw 3.37 · home 2.02	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
SBO	Match winner	away 3.33 · draw 3.06 · home 1.99	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
William Hill	Match winner	away 3.70 · draw 3.30 · home 2.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365	Match winner	away 3.75 · draw 3.40 · home 1.95	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Dafabet	Match winner	away 3.85 · draw 3.40 · home 2.02	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBet	Match winner	away 3.94 · draw 3.58 · home 2.08	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Betano	Match winner	away 3.80 · draw 3.45 · home 2.02	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictor	Match winner	away 3.60 · draw 3.25 · home 1.95	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.12 · under 2.5 1.74	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.00 · under 2.5 1.73	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.14 · under 2.5 1.72	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.73	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.18 · under 2.5 1.79	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.15 · under 2.5 1.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.99 · under 2.5 1.70	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:07:38.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:20 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Celta Vigo	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:15 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Alaves	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:16 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	47.1%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	26.8%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	26.1%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	73.9%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	52.9%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	73.2%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	47.5%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	52.5%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	91.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	9.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	69.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	30.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	43.2%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	56.8%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	22.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	77.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	9.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	90.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	3.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	96.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	75.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	24.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	41.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	58.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	17.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	82.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	5.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	94.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	62.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	37.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	25.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	74.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	7.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	92.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	1.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	98.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	8.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	91.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	23.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	77.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	47.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	52.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	73.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	26.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	90.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	9.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	97.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	2.6%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	64.3%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	35.7%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 601 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:07:38