Got%OnIt
Matches
La Liga·Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT

EspanyolvAtletico Madrid

Espanyol
27%
Draw
25%
Atletico Madrid
47%

Got%OnIt gives Atletico Madrid a 47% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Espanyol and 1.5 for Atletico Madrid.
  • Espanyol won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 a game.
  • Atletico Madrid won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Espanyol are 11th of 20 after 8 games; Atletico Madrid are 2nd.
  • Espanyol have won 2 and lost 4; Atletico Madrid have won 6 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Espanyol

  • D1–1at Malaga9 Oct
  • L1–3v Elche18 Sept
  • L1–2at Rayo Vallecano15 Sept
  • W2–0at Osasuna12 Sept
  • D1–1v Sevilla6 Sept
  • L1–2at Real Sociedad29 Aug

Atletico Madrid

  • W2–1at Alaves10 Oct
  • W2–1v Real Madrid20 Sept
  • W4–0v Osasuna16 Sept
  • W3–0at Real Sociedad13 Sept
  • L0–3at Athletic Club5 Sept
  • W3–1at Sevilla29 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 545, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Atletico Madrid)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Espanyol)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationEspanyol 8 d rest · Atletico Madrid 3.7 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Espanyol

7.7 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Racing Santander +7.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptLLH ElcheL 1–3counted as workload
  • Fri 9 OctLLA MalagaD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctLLA Racing Santander+7.1 d
  • Tue 27 OctCdRA Sestao River+10.2 d
  • Fri 30 OctLLA Villarreal+13.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Espanyol: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Javier Hernandez · regularM057—
Pol LozanoM090—
Edu Expósito · regularM082—
Q. HartmanD090—
Bryan ZaragozaM073—
Roberto Fernández · regularF017290' Spain, 13.7 d before; 0' Spain, 10.7 d before
L. Cabrera · regularD090—
Ángel FortuñoG090—
O. El Hilali · regularD090—
C. Riedel · regularD090—
T. Dolan · regularM082—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 136 minutes — Roberto Fernández (90' Spain, 13.7 d before; 0' Spain, 10.7 d before); V. Drkušić (46' Slovenia, 13.7 d before; 0' Slovenia, 10.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Atletico Madrid

3.7 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A VfB Stuttgart +3.3 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.7 d before (H Manchester United); UEFA Champions League +3.3 d after (A VfB Stuttgart) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptLLH Real MadridW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLA AlavesW 2–1counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLH Manchester UnitedNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLA VfB Stuttgart+3.3 d
  • Sat 24 OctLLH Deportivo La Coruna+7.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 67 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 74.7 CONFIRMED

Atletico Madrid: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Robin Le NormandD6215290' Spain, 13.7 d before; 0' Spain, 10.7 d before
J. CardosoM9090—
G. Simeone · regularM7373—
Koke · regularM9090—
Álex Grimaldo · regularD9090—
C. RomeroD9090—
Marcos Llorente · regularD9090—
J. Oblak · regularG9027090' Slovenia, 13.7 d before; 90' Slovenia, 10.7 d before
J. DavidF4545—
A. Lookman · regularM4545—
Pablo BarriosM5757—

International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 631 minutes — Robin Le Normand (90' Spain, 13.7 d before; 0' Spain, 10.7 d before); Marc Pubill (0' Spain, 13.7 d before; 90' Spain, 10.7 d before); J. Oblak (90' Slovenia, 13.7 d before; 90' Slovenia, 10.7 d before); Álex Baena (46' Spain, 13.7 d before; 45' Spain, 10.7 d before); D. Hancko (90' Slovakia, 10.7 d before); M. Hjulmand (90' Denmark, 12.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Espanyol27%23%21%
Draw25%26%25%
Atletico Madrid47%52%55%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 29 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Atletico Madrid a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (47% vs 55%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Espanyol

  • Espanyol: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • D1–1at Malaga9 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–3v Elche18 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Rayo Vallecano15 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Osasuna12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Sevilla6 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Real Sociedad29 Aug · in model evidence

Atletico Madrid

  • Atletico Madrid: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.0 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W2–1at Alaves10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Real Madrid20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–0v Osasuna16 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–0at Real Sociedad13 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Athletic Club5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1at Sevilla29 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal19%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals8%
6 or more5%
Over 1.574%
Over 2.549%
Over 3.527%
Both teams score52%

Espanyol

Expected goals1.09
Scores at least once67%
Scores 2 or more30%
Clean sheet22%

Atletico Madrid

Expected goals1.53
Scores at least once78%
Scores 2 or more45%
Clean sheet33%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season11th v 2nd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Espanyol

11th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L4 from 8 games · scored 11, conceded 11

Home W1 D1 L2 (scored 6, conceded 6) · Away W1 D1 L2 (scored 5, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 8 games

Last five league games DLLWD (most recent last)

Atletico Madrid

2nd of 20 · 19 pts · W6 D1 L1 from 8 games · scored 18, conceded 8

Home W3 D1 L0 (scored 10, conceded 3) · Away W3 D0 L1 (scored 8, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 8 games

Last five league games WWWWL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes)
47%
55%
YES on Atletico Madrid to WinAtletico Madrid wins in 90 minutes
47%56¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 7,773 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Espanyol to win (90 minutes)
27%
21%
YES on Espanyol to WinEspanyol wins in 90 minutes
27%22¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,340 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
25%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,524 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawEspanyol or Atletico Madrid wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%76¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 6,767 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid to WinEspanyol wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
53%46¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 765 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Espanyol to WinAtletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
73%80¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,139 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
93%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
93%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 743 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
7%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,328 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
74%
77%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
74%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 715 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
26%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,118 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
49%
53%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
49%54¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 724 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
51%48¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,049 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
31%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
27%32¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 912 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
73%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,038 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
15%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
13%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 715 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
87%86¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 717 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
5%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,537 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
95%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 11,049 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
52%
55%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
52%56¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,714 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
48%46¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 369 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Winning margin
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid wins by 2 goals or more
24%31¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,823 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEspanyol wins or the match is drawn, or Atletico Madrid wins by 1 goal · Atletico Madrid not by 2+ goals
76%72¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 730 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid wins by 3 goals or more
10%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 931 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEspanyol wins or the match is drawn, or Atletico Madrid wins by 2 goals or fewer · Atletico Madrid not by 3+ goals
90%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 216 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Espanyol to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Espanyol to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEspanyol wins by 2 goals or more
10%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 720 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Espanyol to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Espanyol wins by 1 goal · Espanyol not by 2+ goals
90%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,222 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Espanyol to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Espanyol to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEspanyol wins by 3 goals or more
3%4¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Espanyol to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAtletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Espanyol wins by 2 goals or fewer · Espanyol not by 3+ goals
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 450 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 27.1% · draw 25.5% · away 47.4%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.53
Espanyol eligible matches
84 (84 with xG)
Atletico Madrid eligible matches
122 (122 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • the model's away probability is 8% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's home probability is 6% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

EspanyolOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 OctMalagaaway1–11.14–0.77D
18 SeptElchehome1–31.05–1.61L
15 SeptRayo Vallecanoaway1–21.49–1.52L
12 SeptOsasunaaway2–01.43–1.05W
6 SeptSevillahome1–11.23–0.53D
29 AugReal Sociedadaway1–20.77–1.82L
Atletico MadridOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctAlavesaway2–12.06–1.13W
20 SeptReal Madridhome2–12.35–0.30W
16 SeptOsasunahome4–03.99–0.48W
13 SeptReal Sociedadaway3–02.05–0.27W
5 SeptAthletic Clubaway0–31.02–1.41L
29 AugSevillaaway3–10.93–0.90W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17ESPATM-BTTS
52.2%55.0%−2.8 pts0.54 / 0.560.464,714 / 369Comparable
seen 29 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM
47.4%55.0%−7.6 pts0.54 / 0.560.467,773 / 765Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Espanyol to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP
27.1%21.0%+6.1 pts0.20 / 0.220.804,340 / 1,139Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-TIE
25.5%24.5%+1.0 pts0.24 / 0.250.761,524 / 6,767Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM2
24.0%29.5%−5.5 pts0.28 / 0.310.722,823 / 730Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM3
9.7%13.0%−3.3 pts0.12 / 0.140.88931 / 216Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Espanyol to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP2
10.4%7.0%+3.4 pts0.06 / 0.080.94720 / 1,222Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Espanyol to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP3
3.1%2.5%+0.6 pts0.01 / 0.040.991 / 450Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-1
92.8%93.5%−0.7 pts0.92 / 0.950.08743 / 1,328Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-2
73.8%77.0%−3.2 pts0.76 / 0.780.24715 / 1,118Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-3
48.8%53.0%−4.2 pts0.52 / 0.540.48724 / 3,049Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-4
27.0%30.5%−3.5 pts0.29 / 0.320.71912 / 5,038Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-5
12.6%15.0%−2.4 pts0.14 / 0.160.86715 / 717Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-6
5.1%6.5%−1.4 pts0.05 / 0.080.952,537 / 11,049Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:07:02.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home22.6%21.8% – 23.4%24.1%4.151027.1%+4.5 pts
1x2:draw25.5%24.6% – 25.8%26.5%3.771025.5%−0.0 pts
1x2:away51.9%51.3% – 53.3%55.6%1.801047.4%−4.5 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:11.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.552.7%52.6% – 53.6%55.6%1.80748.8%−3.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.547.3%46.4% – 47.4%49.5%2.02751.2%+3.9 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:12.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.86 · draw 3.74 · home 4.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.80 · draw 3.80 · home 4.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.78 · draw 3.80 · home 4.3611/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
SBOMatch winneraway 1.71 · draw 3.45 · home 3.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
William HillMatch winneraway 1.80 · draw 3.60 · home 4.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Match winneraway 1.80 · draw 3.60 · home 4.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.81 · draw 3.80 · home 4.3011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.91 · draw 3.84 · home 4.3211/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.80 · draw 3.80 · home 4.3011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.75 · draw 3.60 · home 4.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:50:17
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.81 · under 2.5 2.0211/10/2026, 09:31:1211/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1211/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.80 · under 2.5 2.0311/10/2026, 09:31:1211/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.80 · under 2.5 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1211/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.87 · under 2.5 2.0811/10/2026, 09:31:1211/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.82 · under 2.5 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:1211/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.74 · under 2.5 1.9411/10/2026, 09:31:1211/10/2026, 06:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:07:02.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:04 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Espanyolok11/10/2026, 01:39:16 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Atletico Madridok11/10/2026, 01:39:13 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home27.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw25.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away47.4%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x52.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x272.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1274.5%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes52.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no47.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.592.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.57.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.573.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.526.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.548.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.551.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.527.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.573.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.512.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.587.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.55.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.594.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.566.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.533.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.529.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.570.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.59.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.590.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.52.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.597.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.578.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.521.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.545.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.554.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.520.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.580.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.57.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.593.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.53.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.596.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.510.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.589.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.527.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.572.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.552.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.547.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.576.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.524.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.590.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.59.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home36.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away63.6%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 545 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:07:02