Got%OnIt
Matches
La Liga·Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT

GetafevRayo Vallecano

Getafe
34%
Draw
33%
Rayo Vallecano
33%

Got%OnIt gives Getafe a 34% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 3.

Worth knowing: We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 0.9 goals for Getafe and 0.9 for Rayo Vallecano.
  • Getafe won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • Rayo Vallecano won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.3 a game.

What argues against it

  • We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Getafe are 13th of 20 after 8 games; Rayo Vallecano are 12th.
  • Getafe have won 2 and lost 4; Rayo Vallecano have won 2 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Getafe

  • L0–3at Barcelona10 Oct
  • W1–0v Malaga20 Sept
  • L0–1at Real Betis17 Sept
  • D1–1v Deportivo La Coruna13 Sept
  • D1–1v Celta Vigo7 Sept
  • L0–1at Osasuna31 Aug

Rayo Vallecano

  • D1–1at Osasuna19 Sept
  • W2–1v Espanyol15 Sept
  • L1–4at Real Madrid12 Sept
  • W3–2v Racing Santander5 Sept
  • L2–5at Barcelona31 Aug
  • D1–1v Alaves20 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Getafe win34.0%37.1%+3.1 pts
Draw33.3%34.3%+1.0 pts
Rayo Vallecano win32.7%28.6%−4.1 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 0.92 and 0.90). Getafe 0.92 · Rayo Vallecano 0.90 · total 1.82 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Getafe–Rayo Vallecano)

  1. 0–016.5%
  2. 1–014.6%
  3. 0–114.2%
  4. 1–113.8%
  5. 2–06.9%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Getafe

Expected goals
0.92
Scoring vs average
×0.57
Conceding vs average
×0.78

Rayo Vallecano

Expected goals
0.90
Scoring vs average
×0.78
Conceding vs average
×0.57
  • Getafe (home): expected to score ×0.57 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.78 the average.
  • Rayo Vallecano (away): expected to score ×0.78 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.57 the average.
  • Recent 377 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.61 home and 1.16 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.39).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Getafe
122 matches (122 with xG)
Rayo Vallecano
133 matches (133 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home34.0%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 28.0%
1x2:draw33.3%under-stated by 5.4 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 30.6%
1x2:away32.7%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 29.7%
double_chance:1x67.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x266.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1266.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes36.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no63.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.583.5%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.0%
total_goals:under:0.516.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.554.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 54.1%
total_goals:under:1.545.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.527.6%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 27.0%
total_goals:under:2.572.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.511.3%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.8%
total_goals:under:3.588.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.53.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 3.3%
total_goals:under:4.596.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.51.1%under-stated by 1.0 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 0.8%
total_goals:under:5.598.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.560.3%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 59.7%
team_total:home:under:0.539.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.523.6%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 23.1%
team_total:home:under:1.576.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.56.7%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.4%
team_total:home:under:2.593.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.51.5%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 0.7%
team_total:home:under:3.598.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.559.3%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 58.7%
team_total:away:under:0.540.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.522.7%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.2%
team_total:away:under:1.577.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.56.3%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.0%
team_total:away:under:2.593.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.51.3%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.0%
team_total:away:under:3.598.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.53.3%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.5%
spread:away:+2.596.7%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 96.5%
spread:home:-1.512.3%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.5%
spread:away:+1.587.7%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 87.2%
spread:home:-0.534.0%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 32.2%
spread:away:+0.566.0%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 65.4%
spread:home:+0.567.3%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 66.7%
spread:away:-0.532.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 31.4%
spread:home:+1.588.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.0%
spread:away:-1.511.6%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.8%
spread:home:+2.597.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.53.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home51.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away49.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.31 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 341335658134253652 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.16 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Getafe win34.0%34.1% ± 0.1+0.06 pts
Draw33.3%32.9% ± 0.1−0.41 pts
Rayo Vallecano win32.7%33.0% ± 0.1+0.36 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.31 pts (total_goals:over:2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Getafe
40.7% ± 0.2 (exact 40.7%)
Rayo Vallecano
39.8% ± 0.2 (exact 39.7%)

Goal difference (Getafe minus Rayo Vallecano)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.6% ± 0.0
  4. -32.5% ± 0.0
  5. -28.5% ± 0.1
  6. -121.4% ± 0.1
  7. 032.9% ± 0.1
  8. 121.9% ± 0.1
  9. 28.8% ± 0.1
  10. 32.7% ± 0.1
  11. 40.6% ± 0.0
  12. 50.1% ± 0.0
  13. >50.0% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Getafe 0–0 Rayo Vallecano16.4% ± 0.116.5%
Getafe 1–0 Rayo Vallecano14.8% ± 0.114.6%
Getafe 0–1 Rayo Vallecano14.4% ± 0.114.2%
Getafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano13.4% ± 0.113.8%
Getafe 2–0 Rayo Vallecano6.7% ± 0.16.9%

Expected goals (simulated)

Getafe
mean 0.92 · variance 0.92 · ± 0.003
Rayo Vallecano
mean 0.90 · variance 0.91 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.7 pts (to 32.6%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Getafe and +0.00 for Rayo Vallecano.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Getafe win34.0%34.4%+0.4 pts
Draw33.3%32.6%−0.7 pts
Rayo Vallecano win32.7%33.0%+0.4 pts
Expected goals0.92 – 0.900.92 – 0.90+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 125 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 32 h before as-of.

Getafe

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Soria)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Rayo Vallecano

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice E. Audero)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move getafe win by +1.2 pts (to 35.2%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Getafe and −0.04 for Rayo Vallecano.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Getafe win34.0%35.2%+1.2 pts
Draw33.3%33.1%−0.2 pts
Rayo Vallecano win32.7%31.7%−1.0 pts
Expected goals0.92 – 0.900.92 – 0.86−0.01 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 125 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 32 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Getafe rate ×0.99 band 0.67–1.35

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Rayo Vallecano rate ×0.95 band 0.69–1.48

  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move getafe win by +1.2 pts (to 35.2%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Getafe and −0.04 for Rayo Vallecano.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Getafe win34.0%35.2%+1.2 pts
Draw33.3%33.1%−0.2 pts
Rayo Vallecano win32.7%31.7%−1.0 pts
Expected goals0.92 – 0.900.92 – 0.86−0.01 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 125 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 32 h before as-of.

Getafe

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Soria)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Rayo Vallecano

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice E. Audero)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Getafe rate ×0.99 band 0.67–1.35

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Rayo Vallecano rate ×0.95 band 0.69–1.48

  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Getafe win34.0%35.3%+1.3 pts
Draw33.3%32.8%−0.6 pts
Rayo Vallecano win32.7%32.0%−0.7 pts
Expected goals—0.94 – 0.87+0.01 / −0.03

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 629 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)S. Camello 18% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Getafe

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 59% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
M. Satriano F15.0% ± 0.11.2% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.00178%
E. Unal F7.9% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00160%
M. Martin M3.8% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00160%
J. Mojica D3.1% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00183%
R. Terrats M3.0% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00186%
Andrés García D2.7% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00170%
Z. Romero D2.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00189%
Iván Azón F2.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00066%

Rayo Vallecano

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 77% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
S. Camello F17.9% ± 0.11.7% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00186%
A. Garcia M10.8% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00190%
J. de Frutos F8.4% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00164%
F. Lejeune D4.8% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00196%
Alemao F3.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.0018%
A. Ratiu D3.2% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00187%
P. Ciss D3.0% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00196%
F. Perez M2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0007%

Run 1011 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 506, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Getafe)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Rayo Vallecano)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished La Liga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknowninjury reporttime unknownnot collected for this match
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationGetafe 2 absent regulars · Rayo Vallecano schedule unknown

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Getafe

4.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa Conference League H FC Lugano +2.9 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa Conference League +2.9 d after (H FC Lugano) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptLLH MalagaW 1–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLA BarcelonaL 0–3counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUECLA Universitatea CraiovaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUECLH FC Lugano+2.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctLLA Athletic Club+5.8 d
  • Thu 29 OctCdRA Lebrijana+10 d
  • Sun 1 NovLLH Sevilla+12.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 47 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Mangala (M) — reason unknown; E. Unal (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Getafe: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Kiko FemeníaD085—
David Soria · regularG090—
D. Dakonam · regularD090—
Ramón Terrats · regularM090—
J. Mojica · regularD065—
Iván AzónF065—
Mario MartínM090—
Francho Serrano · regularM090—
Andrés GarcíaM065—
Z. Romero · regularD037—
N. GudeljD090—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Rayo Vallecano

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Elche +4.7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 10 OctLLH Athletic ClubINTINT

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctLLH Elche+4.7 d
  • Tue 27 OctCdRA Recreativo Huelva+8 d
  • Sat 31 OctLLH Celta Vigo+11.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 58 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Rayo Vallecano: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. Ratiu · regularD00—
M. SadickD00—
E. AuderoG00—
U. Lopez · regularM00—
P. Ciss · regularM00—
O. Valentin · regularM00—
J. de Frutos · regularF00—
F. Lejeune · regularD00—
A. PedrosaD00—
S. Camello · regularF00—
A. Garcia · regularF00—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Getafe34%—33%
Draw33%—33%
Rayo Vallecano33%—36%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 25 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Getafe

  • Getafe: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.5 and conceded 1.1 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 20%; over 1.5 goals in 40%, over 2.5 in 20%.
  • L0–3at Barcelona10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Malaga20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Real Betis17 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Deportivo La Coruna13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Celta Vigo7 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Osasuna31 Aug · in model evidence

Rayo Vallecano

  • Rayo Vallecano: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • D1–1at Osasuna19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Espanyol15 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at Real Madrid12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Racing Santander5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–5at Barcelona31 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Alaves20 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals16%
1 goal29%
2 goals27%
3 goals16%
4 goals7%
5 goals3%
6 or more1%
Over 1.555%
Over 2.528%
Over 3.511%
Both teams score36%

Getafe

Expected goals0.92
Scores at least once60%
Scores 2 or more24%
Clean sheet41%

Rayo Vallecano

Expected goals0.90
Scores at least once59%
Scores 2 or more23%
Clean sheet40%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynot available

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season13th v 12th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Getafe

13th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L4 from 8 games · scored 4, conceded 10

Home W2 D2 L0 (scored 4, conceded 2) · Away W0 D0 L4 (scored 0, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 4 in 8 games

Last five league games LWLDD (most recent last)

Rayo Vallecano

12th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L3 from 7 games · scored 11, conceded 16

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 6, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L3 (scored 5, conceded 12)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 7 games

Last five league games DWLWL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets3 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 6 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Getafe to win34.0%34.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 34¢
Draw33.3%32.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 34¢
Rayo Vallecano to win32.7%33.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 37¢
Double chance
Getafe or draw limited evidence67.3%67.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 66¢
Rayo Vallecano or draw limited evidence66.0%65.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 69¢
Not a draw limited evidence66.7%67.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 69¢
Draw no bet
Getafe to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence51.0%50.8% ± 0.2no
Rayo Vallecano to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence49.0%49.2% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence83.5%83.6% ± 0.1no
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence16.5%16.4% ± 0.1no
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence54.8%54.5% ± 0.2no
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence45.2%45.5% ± 0.2no
Over 2.5 goals in total27.6%27.9% ± 0.1no
Under 2.5 goals in total72.4%72.1% ± 0.1no
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence11.3%11.4% ± 0.1no
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence88.7%88.6% ± 0.1no
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence3.8%3.9% ± 0.1no
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence96.2%96.1% ± 0.1no
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence1.1%1.1% ± 0.0no
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence98.9%98.9% ± 0.0no
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence36.1%35.9% ± 0.2no
At least one team fails to score limited evidence63.9%64.1% ± 0.2no
Team goals
Getafe over 0.5 goals limited evidence60.3%60.2% ± 0.2no
Getafe under 0.5 goals limited evidence39.7%39.8% ± 0.2no
Getafe over 1.5 goals limited evidence23.6%23.6% ± 0.1no
Getafe under 1.5 goals limited evidence76.4%76.4% ± 0.1no
Getafe over 2.5 goals limited evidence6.7%6.7% ± 0.1no
Getafe under 2.5 goals limited evidence93.3%93.3% ± 0.1no
Getafe over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.5%1.5% ± 0.0no
Getafe under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.5%98.5% ± 0.0no
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 goals limited evidence59.3%59.3% ± 0.2no
Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 goals limited evidence40.7%40.7% ± 0.2no
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 goals limited evidence22.7%23.0% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 goals limited evidence77.3%77.0% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 goals limited evidence6.3%6.5% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 goals limited evidence93.7%93.5% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.3%1.4% ± 0.0no
Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.7%98.6% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Getafe to win by 3 or more limited evidence3.3%3.4% ± 0.1no
Getafe to win by 2 or more limited evidence12.3%12.2% ± 0.1no
Getafe to win by 1 or more limited evidence34.0%34.1% ± 0.1no
Getafe not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence67.3%67.0% ± 0.1no
Getafe not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence88.4%88.4% ± 0.1no
Getafe not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence97.0%96.8% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano to win by 3 or more limited evidence3.0%3.2% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano to win by 2 or more limited evidence11.6%11.6% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano to win by 1 or more limited evidence32.7%33.0% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence66.0%65.9% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence87.7%87.8% ± 0.1no
Rayo Vallecano not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence96.7%96.6% ± 0.1no
Clean sheet
Getafe clean sheet grid40.7%40.7% ± 0.2no
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet grid39.7%39.8% ± 0.2no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—32.9% ± 0.1not listed
Getafe by exactly 1—21.9% ± 0.1not listed
Getafe by exactly 2—8.8% ± 0.1not listed
Getafe by exactly 3—2.7% ± 0.1not listed
Getafe by exactly 4—0.6% ± 0.0not listed
Getafe by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Rayo Vallecano by exactly 1—21.4% ± 0.1not listed
Rayo Vallecano by exactly 2—8.5% ± 0.1not listed
Rayo Vallecano by exactly 3—2.5% ± 0.0not listed
Rayo Vallecano by exactly 4—0.6% ± 0.0not listed
Rayo Vallecano by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Getafe by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Rayo Vallecano by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Getafe 0–0 Rayo Vallecano—16.4% ± 0.1not listed
Getafe 1–0 Rayo Vallecano—14.8% ± 0.1not listed
Getafe 0–1 Rayo Vallecano—14.4% ± 0.1not listed
Getafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano—13.4% ± 0.1not listed
Getafe 2–0 Rayo Vallecano—6.7% ± 0.1not listed

Getafe v Rayo Vallecano: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Getafe to win (90 minutes)
34%
33%
YES on Getafe to WinGetafe wins in 90 minutes
34%34¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,785 contracts at the ask · quote 25 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Rayo Vallecano to win (90 minutes)
33%
36%
YES on Rayo Vallecano to WinRayo Vallecano wins in 90 minutes
33%37¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,725 contracts at the ask · quote 25 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
33%
33%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
33%34¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,362 contracts at the ask · quote 25 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawGetafe or Rayo Vallecano wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
67%69¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 43 contracts at the ask · quote 25 min old
NO on Rayo Vallecano to WinGetafe wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
67%66¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 613 contracts at the ask · quote 25 min old
NO on Getafe to WinRayo Vallecano wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
66%69¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,074 contracts at the ask · quote 25 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 34.0% · draw 33.3% · away 32.7%
Expected goals
0.92 – 0.90
Getafe eligible matches
122 (122 with xG)
Rayo Vallecano eligible matches
133 (133 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

GetafeOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBarcelonaaway0–30.14–1.94L
20 SeptMalagahome1–00.95–0.52W
17 SeptReal Betisaway0–10.29–1.89L
13 SeptDeportivo La Corunahome1–10.78–0.87D
7 SeptCelta Vigohome1–10.65–1.03D
31 AugOsasunaaway0–10.68–1.68L
Rayo VallecanoOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptOsasunaaway1–11.01–0.53D
15 SeptEspanyolhome2–11.52–1.49W
12 SeptReal Madridaway1–41.21–2.62L
5 SeptRacing Santanderhome3–21.61–0.48W
31 AugBarcelonaaway2–51.21–3.04L
20 AugAlaveshome1–10.42–2.00D

Kalshi contracts and the model

3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Getafe to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-GET
34.0%32.5%+1.5 pts0.31 / 0.340.694,785 / 1,074Comparable
seen 25 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Rayo Vallecano to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-RVC
32.7%35.5%−2.8 pts0.34 / 0.370.664,725 / 613Comparable
seen 25 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-TIE
33.3%32.5%+0.8 pts0.31 / 0.340.691,362 / 43Comparable
seen 25 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:06:04.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
34.0%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
33.3%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
32.7%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
27.6%—
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
72.4%—

No pages observed.

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:06:04.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesnot_observed—
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Getafeok11/10/2026, 01:39:17 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Rayo Vallecanook11/10/2026, 01:39:18 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home34.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw33.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away32.7%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x67.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x266.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1266.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes36.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no63.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.583.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.516.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.554.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.545.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.527.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.572.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.511.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.588.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.53.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.596.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.51.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.598.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.560.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.539.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.523.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.576.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.56.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.593.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.51.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.598.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.559.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.540.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.522.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.577.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.56.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.593.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.53.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.596.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.512.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.587.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.534.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.566.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.567.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.532.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.588.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.511.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.597.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.53.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home51.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away49.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 506 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:06:04