La Liga·Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT

ValenciavAthletic Club

Valencia

35%

Draw

28%

Athletic Club

36%

Got%OnIt gives Athletic Club a 36% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 3.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Valencia and 1.2 for Athletic Club.
Valencia won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3 a game.
Athletic Club won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Valencia are 19th of 20 after 7 games; Athletic Club are 9th.
Valencia have won 1 and lost 5; Athletic Club have won 2 and lost 2.

Recent matches the model used

Valencia

D2–2at Racing Santander11 Oct
L2–3v Real Sociedad20 Sept
W1–0at Alaves15 Sept
L0–1at Sevilla11 Sept
L0–5v Barcelona6 Sept
L1–3at Deportivo La Coruna30 Aug

Athletic Club

D0–0v Alaves19 Sept
D1–1v Elche12 Sept
W3–0v Atletico Madrid5 Sept
W2–0at Celta Vigo30 Aug
L0–2at Barcelona27 Aug
L1–3v Sevilla22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 583, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Athletic Club)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Valencia)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Available at prediction timeKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationValencia 6 d rest · Athletic Club 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Valencia

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Villarreal +6.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptLLH Real SociedadL 2–3counted as workload
Sun 11 OctLLA Racing SantanderD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctLLH Villarreal+6.9 d
Wed 28 OctCdRA Tavernes+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 9 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79.3 CONFIRMED

Valencia: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
G. Rodríguez · regular	M	90	90	—
Hugo Duro · regular	F	90	90	—
Javi Guerra · regular	M	85	85	—
F. Ugrinic · regular	M	58	58	—
S. Dimitrievski · regular	G	90	180	90' FYR Macedonia, 11 d before
Dani Raba	M	58	58	—
J. de Haas	D	90	90	—
Pepelu · regular	D	90	90	—
Pablo Maffeo	D	86	86	—
M. Diakhaby	D	45	45	—
José Gayà	D	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — S. Dimitrievski (90' FYR Macedonia, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Athletic Club

28.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 1 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Levante +4 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptLLH AlavesD 0–0counted as workload
Sat 10 OctLLA Rayo VallecanoINTINT

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctLLA Levante+4 d
Sun 25 OctLLH Getafe+7.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 55 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: G. Guruzeta (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Athletic Club: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
I. Ruiz de Galarreta · regular	M	0	—
A. Paredes	D	0	—
O. Sancet · regular	M	0	—
Y. Berchiche · regular	D	0	—
J. Louis-Jean	D	0	—
U. Simon · regular	G	90	90' Spain, 11 d before
I. Williams · regular	F	0	—
N. Williams	M	0	—
R. Navarro · regular	M	0	—
M. Jauregizar	M	0	—
A. Laporte · regular	D	90	90' Spain, 11 d before

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 180 minutes — U. Simon (90' Spain, 11 d before); A. Laporte (90' Spain, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Valencia	35%	27%	25%
Draw	28%	28%	27%
Athletic Club	36%	45%	46%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 3 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Valencia a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (35% vs 25%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Valencia

Valencia: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 60%.

D2–2at Racing Santander11 Oct · in model evidence
L2–3v Real Sociedad20 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0at Alaves15 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1at Sevilla11 Sept · in model evidence
L0–5v Barcelona6 Sept · in model evidence
L1–3at Deportivo La Coruna30 Aug · in model evidence

Athletic Club

Athletic Club: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 30%.

D0–0v Alaves19 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1v Elche12 Sept · in model evidence
W3–0v Atletico Madrid5 Sept · in model evidence
W2–0at Celta Vigo30 Aug · in model evidence
L0–2at Barcelona27 Aug · in model evidence
L1–3v Sevilla22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	10%
1 goal	23%
2 goals	27%
3 goals	20%
4 goals	12%
5 goals	5%
6 or more	3%
Over 1.5	67%
Over 2.5	40%
Over 3.5	20%
Both teams score	46%

Valencia

Expected goals	1.13
Scores at least once	68%
Scores 2 or more	31%
Clean sheet	32%

Athletic Club

Expected goals	1.15
Scores at least once	68%
Scores 2 or more	32%
Clean sheet	32%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 26 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season19th v 9th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Valencia

19th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L5 from 7 games · scored 4, conceded 13

Home W0 D1 L3 (scored 2, conceded 9) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 4 in 7 games

Last five league games LWLLL (most recent last)

Athletic Club

9th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L2 from 6 games · scored 7, conceded 6

Home W1 D2 L1 (scored 5, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games DDWWL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Athletic Club to win (90 minutes)

36%

46%

YES on Athletic Club to WinAthletic Club wins in 90 minutes

36%47¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

28%

27%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

28%28¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 156 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Valencia to win (90 minutes)

35%

25%

YES on Valencia to WinValencia wins in 90 minutes

35%26¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 223 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawValencia or Athletic Club wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

72%74¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 7,316 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Athletic Club to WinValencia wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

64%55¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,619 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Valencia to WinAthletic Club wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

65%76¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,708 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

90%

92%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

90%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 757 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

10%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 767 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

67%

73%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

67%74¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 934 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

33%29¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,544 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

40%

47%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

40%48¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 944 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

60%54¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,619 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

20%

26%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

20%27¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,697 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

80%76¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,645 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

11%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

8%12¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 775 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

92%90¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,147 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

3%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,553 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

97%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

46%

52%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

46%53¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 367 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

54%49¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,215 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Winning margin

Athletic Club to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

15%

23%

Limited evidence

YES on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAthletic Club wins by 2 goals or more

15%24¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,582 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsValencia wins or the match is drawn, or Athletic Club wins by 1 goal · Athletic Club not by 2+ goals

85%79¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8,367 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Athletic Club to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAthletic Club wins by 3 goals or more

5%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 837 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsValencia wins or the match is drawn, or Athletic Club wins by 2 goals or fewer · Athletic Club not by 3+ goals

95%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Valencia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Valencia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsValencia wins by 2 goals or more

14%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 737 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Valencia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAthletic Club wins or the match is drawn, or Valencia wins by 1 goal · Valencia not by 2+ goals

86%92¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Valencia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Valencia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsValencia wins by 3 goals or more

5%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 133 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

NO on Valencia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAthletic Club wins or the match is drawn, or Valencia wins by 2 goals or fewer · Valencia not by 3+ goals

95%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,687 contracts at the ask · quote 3 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 35.3% · draw 28.5% · away 36.3%
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.15
Valencia eligible matches: 122 (122 with xG)
Athletic Club eligible matches: 120 (120 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: none

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
the model's away probability is 10% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's home probability is 10% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Valencia	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Racing Santander	away	2–2	1.10–1.32	D
20 Sept	Real Sociedad	home	2–3	1.55–2.65	L
15 Sept	Alaves	away	1–0	0.65–1.05	W
11 Sept	Sevilla	away	0–1	0.10–0.93	L
6 Sept	Barcelona	home	0–5	0.66–4.08	L
30 Aug	Deportivo La Coruna	away	1–3	1.40–1.42	L

Athletic Club	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
19 Sept	Alaves	home	0–0	1.62–0.05	D
12 Sept	Elche	home	1–1	2.39–0.84	D
5 Sept	Atletico Madrid	home	3–0	1.41–1.02	W
30 Aug	Celta Vigo	away	2–0	2.78–0.75	W
27 Aug	Barcelona	away	0–2	0.25–4.23	L
22 Aug	Sevilla	home	1–3	1.25–0.41	L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17VCFATH-BTTS	46.4%	52.0%	−5.6 pts	0.51 / 0.53	0.49	367 / 1,215	Comparable seen 3 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Athletic Club to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH	36.3%	46.0%	−9.7 pts	0.45 / 0.47	0.55	330 / 1,619	Comparable seen 3 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Valencia to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF	35.3%	25.0%	+10.3 pts	0.24 / 0.26	0.76	223 / 1,708	Comparable seen 3 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-TIE	28.5%	27.0%	+1.5 pts	0.26 / 0.28	0.74	156 / 7,316	Comparable seen 3 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Athletic Club to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH2	15.0%	22.5%	−7.5 pts	0.21 / 0.24	0.79	1,582 / 8,367	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Athletic Club to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH3	4.8%	8.5%	−3.7 pts	0.07 / 0.10	0.93	837 / 750	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Valencia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF2	14.4%	9.0%	+5.4 pts	0.08 / 0.10	0.92	737 / 25	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Valencia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF3	4.5%	3.5%	+1.0 pts	0.01 / 0.06	0.99	133 / 1,687	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-1	89.8%	92.0%	−2.2 pts	0.91 / 0.93	0.09	757 / 767	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-2	66.6%	72.5%	−5.9 pts	0.71 / 0.74	0.29	934 / 1,544	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-3	40.0%	47.0%	−7.0 pts	0.46 / 0.48	0.54	944 / 2,619	Comparable seen 3 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-4	19.8%	25.5%	−5.7 pts	0.24 / 0.27	0.76	1,697 / 2,645	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-5	8.2%	11.0%	−2.8 pts	0.10 / 0.12	0.90	775 / 1,147	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-6	2.9%	4.0%	−1.1 pts	0.02 / 0.06	0.98	1,553 / 250	Comparable seen 3 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:07:51.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	27.1%	25.9% – 28.2%	28.6%	3.50	10	35.3%	+8.1 pts
1x2:draw	27.8%	27.1% – 28.5%	29.4%	3.40	10	28.5%	+0.7 pts
1x2:away	45.1%	44.4% – 46.2%	48.2%	2.08	10	36.3%	−8.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:24.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	47.0%	45.0% – 47.4%	49.3%	2.03	8	40.0%	−7.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	53.0%	52.6% – 55.0%	55.6%	1.80	8	60.0%	+7.0 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:24.

Every bookmaker page used (18)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 2.12 · draw 3.48 · home 3.52	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betfair	Match winner	away 2.05 · draw 3.40 · home 3.30	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 2.06 · draw 3.41 · home 3.68	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBO	Match winner	away 1.97 · draw 3.11 · home 3.34	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
William Hill	Match winner	away 2.05 · draw 3.30 · home 3.40	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365	Match winner	away 2.10 · draw 3.40 · home 3.30	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Dafabet	Match winner	away 2.09 · draw 3.45 · home 3.55	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBet	Match winner	away 2.18 · draw 3.58 · home 3.62	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betano	Match winner	away 2.12 · draw 3.40 · home 3.50	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictor	Match winner	away 2.00 · draw 3.25 · home 3.50	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.03 · under 2.5 1.80	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.95 · under 2.5 1.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.03 · under 2.5 1.82	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBO	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.13 · under 2.5 1.74	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.00 · under 2.5 1.80	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.86	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 2.05 · under 2.5 1.80	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.95 · under 2.5 1.73	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:50:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:07:51.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:11 (Last checked 26 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Valencia	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:14 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Athletic Club	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:13 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	35.3%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	28.5%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	36.3%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	63.7%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	64.7%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	71.5%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	46.4%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	53.6%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	89.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	10.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	66.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	33.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	40.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	60.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	19.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	80.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	8.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	91.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	2.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	97.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	67.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	32.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	31.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	68.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	10.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	89.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	2.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	97.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	68.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	31.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	32.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	68.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	11.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	89.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	3.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	97.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	4.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	95.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	14.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	85.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	35.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	64.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	63.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	36.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	85.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	15.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	95.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	4.8%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	49.3%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	50.7%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 583 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:07:51