Got%OnIt
Matches
La Liga·Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT

VillarrealvElche

Villarreal
66%
Draw
18%
Elche
15%

Got%OnIt gives Villarreal a 66% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 3.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.3 goals for Villarreal and 1.0 for Elche.
  • Villarreal won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 a game.
  • Elche won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Villarreal are 10th of 20 after 8 games; Elche are 18th.
  • Villarreal have won 2 and lost 4; Elche have won 1 and lost 4.
Recent matches the model used

Villarreal

  • L0–1at Real Madrid10 Oct
  • W3–1v Levante20 Sept
  • W3–1at Malaga17 Sept
  • L1–2v Real Betis14 Sept
  • L2–3v Deportivo La Coruna5 Sept
  • L0–1at Alaves28 Aug

Elche

  • D0–0v Celta Vigo11 Oct
  • W3–1at Espanyol18 Sept
  • L2–3v Real Madrid15 Sept
  • D1–1at Athletic Club12 Sept
  • L2–3v Real Sociedad7 Sept
  • L2–3at Racing Santander28 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 565, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Villarreal)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Elche)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T14:15:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationVillarreal 3.8 d rest (short) · Elche 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Villarreal

3.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 4 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Liverpool +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.8 d before (H Napoli); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (A Liverpool) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Thu 17 SeptLLA MalagaW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptLLH LevanteW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLA Real MadridL 0–1counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLH NapoliNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLA Liverpool+3.2 d
  • Sat 24 OctLLA Valencia+7.1 d
  • Tue 27 OctCdRA Manacor+10.2 d
  • Fri 30 OctLLH Espanyol+13.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 55 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: T. Buchanan (M) — reason unknown; N. Pepe (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79.3 CONFIRMED

Villarreal: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Alberto Moleiro · regularM8686—
P. Gueye · regularM9090—
P. GulácsiG9090—
J. FoythM5656—
Sergi CardonaD6767—
A. FreemanD9090—
Pau NavarroD9090—
Renato Veiga · regularD9018090' Portugal, 12.8 d before
Ilias AkhomachM6767—
Santi Comesaña · regularM5656—
Ayoze Pérez · regularF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 94 minutes — Renato Veiga (90' Portugal, 12.8 d before); G. Mikautadze (4' Georgia, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Elche

6.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Rayo Vallecano +6.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptLLA EspanyolW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctLLH Celta VigoD 0–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctLLA Rayo Vallecano+6.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctCdRA Pinatar+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 47 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Buba Sangare (D) — reason unknown; D. Affengruber (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 83.5 CONFIRMED

Elche: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Germán Valera · regularD9090—
Gonzalo Villar · regularM7171—
Víctor Chust · regularD9090—
J. MorcilloD9090—
Rubén SánchezD9090—
M. Dituro · regularG9090—
Fer Niño · regularF7171—
Tete Morente · regularF5959—
R. RevivoD9018090' Israel, 12.8 d before
T. LemarM8787—
Marc Aguado · regularM9090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — R. Revivo (90' Israel, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Villarreal66%64%66%
Draw18%20%19%
Elche15%15%15%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 29 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Villarreal

  • Villarreal: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L0–1at Real Madrid10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–1v Levante20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1at Malaga17 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Real Betis14 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Deportivo La Coruna5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Alaves28 Aug · in model evidence

Elche

  • Elche: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • D0–0v Celta Vigo11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–1at Espanyol18 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Real Madrid15 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Athletic Club12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Real Sociedad7 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3at Racing Santander28 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals3%
1 goal12%
2 goals20%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals12%
6 or more13%
Over 1.585%
Over 2.565%
Over 3.543%
Both teams score58%

Villarreal

Expected goals2.33
Scores at least once90%
Scores 2 or more68%
Clean sheet35%

Elche

Expected goals1.04
Scores at least once65%
Scores 2 or more28%
Clean sheet10%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season10th v 18th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Villarreal

10th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L4 from 8 games · scored 13, conceded 13

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 6, conceded 6) · Away W1 D2 L2 (scored 7, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 8 games

Last five league games LWWLL (most recent last)

Elche

18th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L4 from 7 games · scored 11, conceded 17

Home W0 D0 L3 (scored 4, conceded 11) · Away W1 D2 L1 (scored 7, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 7 games

Last five league games WLDLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Elche to win (90 minutes)
15%
15%
YES on Elche to WinElche wins in 90 minutes
15%16¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,511 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
18%
19%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
18%19¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 179 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Villarreal to win (90 minutes)
66%
66%
YES on Villarreal to WinVillarreal wins in 90 minutes
66%66¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawVillarreal or Elche wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
82%82¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 979 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Elche to WinVillarreal wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
85%86¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,120 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Villarreal to WinElche wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
34%35¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 990 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
97%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
97%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 17 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
3%6¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 72 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
85%
85%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
85%86¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 676 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
15%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,157 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
65%
65%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
65%66¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 669 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
35%36¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,897 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
43%
43%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
43%44¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,669 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
57%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 256 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
25%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
25%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 694 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
75%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 730 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
13%13¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 688 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
87%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 696 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
58%
58%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
58%59¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 672 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
42%43¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 972 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Winning margin
Elche to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Elche to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsElche wins by 2 goals or more
5%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,399 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Elche to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVillarreal wins or the match is drawn, or Elche wins by 1 goal · Elche not by 2+ goals
95%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 45 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Elche to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
1%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Elche to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsElche wins by 3 goals or more
1%11¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Elche to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVillarreal wins or the match is drawn, or Elche wins by 2 goals or fewer · Elche not by 3+ goals
99%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Villarreal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
44%
43%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVillarreal wins by 2 goals or more
44%44¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,419 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Villarreal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsElche wins or the match is drawn, or Villarreal wins by 1 goal · Villarreal not by 2+ goals
56%59¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,667 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Villarreal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVillarreal wins by 3 goals or more
24%24¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Villarreal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsElche wins or the match is drawn, or Villarreal wins by 2 goals or fewer · Villarreal not by 3+ goals
76%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,215 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 66.1% · draw 18.4% · away 15.5%
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.04
Villarreal eligible matches
122 (122 with xG)
Elche eligible matches
46 (46 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

VillarrealOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctReal Madridaway0–10.64–0.99L
20 SeptLevantehome3–14.27–0.45W
17 SeptMalagaaway3–13.33–0.63W
14 SeptReal Betishome1–21.89–3.52L
5 SeptDeportivo La Corunahome2–31.14–0.79L
28 AugAlavesaway0–11.40–0.81L
ElcheOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctCelta Vigohome0–00.69–0.34D
18 SeptEspanyolaway3–11.61–1.05W
15 SeptReal Madridhome2–30.78–3.61L
12 SeptAthletic Clubaway1–10.84–2.39D
7 SeptReal Sociedadhome2–32.47–0.58L
28 AugRacing Santanderaway2–31.03–1.72L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17VILELC-BTTS
58.3%58.0%+0.3 pts0.57 / 0.590.43672 / 972Comparable
seen 29 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Elche to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-ELC
15.5%15.0%+0.5 pts0.14 / 0.160.864,511 / 1,120Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Villarreal to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-VIL
66.1%65.5%+0.6 pts0.65 / 0.660.35330 / 990Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-TIE
18.4%18.5%−0.1 pts0.18 / 0.190.82179 / 979Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Elche to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-ELC2
5.4%5.5%−0.1 pts0.03 / 0.080.971,399 / 45Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Elche to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-ELC3
1.5%6.0%−4.5 pts0.01 / 0.110.993 / 300Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Villarreal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-VIL2
43.5%42.5%+1.0 pts0.41 / 0.440.592,419 / 2,667Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Villarreal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-VIL3
24.0%23.0%+1.0 pts0.22 / 0.240.782 / 1,215Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-1
96.5%95.5%+1.0 pts0.94 / 0.970.0617 / 72Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-2
84.9%84.5%+0.4 pts0.83 / 0.860.17676 / 1,157Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-3
65.4%65.0%+0.4 pts0.64 / 0.660.36669 / 2,897Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-4
43.4%43.0%+0.4 pts0.42 / 0.440.581,669 / 256Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-5
25.0%24.0%+1.0 pts0.22 / 0.260.78694 / 730Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-6
12.5%12.0%+0.5 pts0.11 / 0.130.89688 / 696Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:06:28.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home64.2%62.4% – 66.2%68.3%1.471066.1%+1.9 pts
1x2:draw20.3%19.4% – 21.5%21.6%4.631018.4%−1.8 pts
1x2:away15.5%14.3% – 17.0%16.6%6.021015.5%+0.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:21.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.564.3%63.3% – 66.3%69.0%1.45765.4%+1.1 pts
total_goals:under:2.535.7%33.7% – 36.7%38.2%2.62734.6%−1.1 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:21.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 6.55 · draw 4.75 · home 1.4711/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairMatch winneraway 6.50 · draw 4.75 · home 1.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleMatch winneraway 6.04 · draw 4.84 · home 1.4611/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
SBOMatch winneraway 5.22 · draw 4.29 · home 1.4211/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
William HillMatch winneraway 6.00 · draw 4.50 · home 1.4411/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Match winneraway 6.00 · draw 4.33 · home 1.4811/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
DafabetMatch winneraway 5.80 · draw 4.90 · home 1.4811/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetMatch winneraway 6.73 · draw 4.88 · home 1.5111/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoMatch winneraway 6.30 · draw 4.50 · home 1.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorMatch winneraway 5.75 · draw 4.50 · home 1.4411/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.5811/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.7511/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.48 · under 2.5 2.6511/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.6211/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.5811/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.7011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:06:28.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:08 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Villarrealok11/10/2026, 01:39:14 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Elcheok11/10/2026, 01:39:19 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home66.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw18.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away15.5%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x84.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x233.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1281.6%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes58.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no41.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.596.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.53.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.584.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.515.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.565.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.534.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.543.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.556.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.525.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.575.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.512.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.587.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.590.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.59.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.567.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.532.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.541.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.558.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.520.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.579.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.564.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.535.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.527.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.572.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.58.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.591.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.524.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.576.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.543.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.556.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.566.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.533.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.584.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.515.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.598.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.51.5%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home81.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away19.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 565 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:06:28