Got%OnIt
Matches
Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Bayern MünchenvRB Leipzig

Bayern München
73%
Draw
15%
RB Leipzig
13%

Got%OnIt gives Bayern München a 73% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 4.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.9 goals for Bayern München and 1.2 for RB Leipzig.
  • Bayern München won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • RB Leipzig won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.5 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Bayern München are 2nd of 18 after 5 games; RB Leipzig are 5th.
  • Bayern München have won 3 and lost 0; RB Leipzig have won 3 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Bayern München

  • D2–2at FC Augsburg10 Oct
  • W7–0v Union Berlin18 Sept
  • W2–1at SV Elversberg13 Sept
  • D0–0at FC Schalke 045 Sept
  • W5–1v VfB Stuttgart28 Aug
  • W5–1v 1. FC Köln16 May

RB Leipzig

  • W6–0v Eintracht Frankfurt10 Oct
  • L0–2at Bayer Leverkusen20 Sept
  • W5–0v Hamburger SV13 Sept
  • L1–3at Werder Bremen5 Sept
  • W3–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach29 Aug
  • L1–4at SC Freiburg16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 573, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bayern München)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (RB Leipzig)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:25 PDT963 finished Bundesliga matches (963 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBayern München 3.9 d rest (short) · RB Leipzig 3.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Bayern München

3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Arsenal +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.9 d before (A Viking) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptBLH Union BerlinW 7–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA FC AugsburgD 2–2counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLA VikingNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Arsenal+4.1 d
  • Sun 25 OctBLA SC Freiburg+8 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH 1. FC Magdeburg+10.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: K. Laimer (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Bayern München: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
I. SaibariM067—
H. Kane · regularF017282' England, 10.9 d before
L. Díaz · regularM087—
A. Pavlović · regularM017790' Germany, 12.9 d before
J. Kimmich · regularM090—
J. Tah · regularD090—
M. Neuer · regularG090—
M. Olise · regularM012030' France, 11.9 d before
A. DaviesD090—
D. Upamecano · regularD090—
J. Stanišić · regularD015790' Croatia, 10.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 529 minutes — T. Bischof (83' Germany, 12.9 d before); J. Urbig (90' Germany, 12.9 d before); L. Karl (64' Germany, 12.9 d before); H. Kane (82' England, 10.9 d before); A. Pavlović (90' Germany, 12.9 d before); M. Olise (30' France, 11.9 d before); J. Stanišić (90' Croatia, 10.9 d before) CONFIRMED

RB Leipzig

3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Real Madrid +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.9 d before (H PSV Eindhoven) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptBLA Bayer LeverkusenL 0–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLH Eintracht FrankfurtW 6–0counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLH PSV EindhovenNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Real Madrid+4.1 d
  • Sat 24 OctBLH SV Elversberg+6.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBA Rot-Weiß Essen+10.1 d
  • Sat 31 OctBLA FC Schalke 04+13.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 42 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 77.9 CONFIRMED

RB Leipzig: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Vandevoordt · regularG9018090' Belgium, 11.9 d before
C. NkunkuM6464—
E. BanzuziM7373—
D. Raum · regularD9018090' Germany, 12.9 d before
C. Lukeba · regularD9090—
W. Orbán · regularD9018090' Hungary, 11.9 d before
RômuloF9090—
A. Nusa · regularM6413874' Norway, 12.9 d before
A. MaksimovićM9090—
N. El AynaouiM5858—
R. Baku · regularD58580' Germany, 12.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 421 minutes — M. Vandevoordt (90' Belgium, 11.9 d before); D. Raum (90' Germany, 12.9 d before); W. Orbán (90' Hungary, 11.9 d before); N. Seiwald (77' Austria, 13 d before); A. Nusa (74' Norway, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Bayern München73%77%79%
Draw15%14%12%
RB Leipzig13%10%10%
Based on 9 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 29 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Bayern München a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (73% vs 79%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Bayern München

  • Bayern München: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 3.3 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • D2–2at FC Augsburg10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W7–0v Union Berlin18 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at SV Elversberg13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at FC Schalke 045 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–1v VfB Stuttgart28 Aug · in model evidence
  • W5–1v 1. FC Köln16 May · in model evidence

RB Leipzig

  • RB Leipzig: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 90%.
  • W6–0v Eintracht Frankfurt10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Bayer Leverkusen20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–0v Hamburger SV13 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–3at Werder Bremen5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–4at SC Freiburg16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals2%
1 goal7%
2 goals14%
3 goals19%
4 goals19%
5 goals16%
6 or more24%
Over 1.592%
Over 2.578%
Over 3.560%
Both teams score67%

Bayern München

Expected goals2.94
Scores at least once95%
Scores 2 or more79%
Clean sheet30%

RB Leipzig

Expected goals1.21
Scores at least once70%
Scores 2 or more34%
Clean sheet5%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season2nd v 5th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Bayern München

2nd of 18 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L0 from 5 games · scored 16, conceded 4

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 12, conceded 1) · Away W1 D2 L0 (scored 4, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games DWWDW (most recent last)

RB Leipzig

5th of 18 · 9 pts · W3 D0 L2 from 5 games · scored 15, conceded 5

Home W3 D0 L0 (scored 14, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WLWLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Bayern München to win (90 minutes)
73%
79%
YES on Bayern München to WinBayern München wins in 90 minutes
73%80¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,489 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes)
13%
10%
YES on RB Leipzig to WinRB Leipzig wins in 90 minutes
13%11¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,663 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
15%
12%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
15%13¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,577 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBayern München or RB Leipzig wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
85%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 796 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on RB Leipzig to WinBayern München wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
87%91¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 430 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Bayern München to WinRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
27%22¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,429 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
98%
98%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 401 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
2%3¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
92%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
92%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 364 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
8%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 836 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
78%
85%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
78%86¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 367 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
22%17¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 705 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
68%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
60%68¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
40%33¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 700 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
40%
48%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
40%48¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
60%53¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 909 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
32%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
24%33¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,115 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
76%69¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 186 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
67%
69%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
67%69¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
33%32¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 29 min old
Winning margin
Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
53%
62%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayern München wins by 2 goals or more
53%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 368 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Bayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 1 goal · Bayern München not by 2+ goals
47%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 178 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
34%
43%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayern München wins by 3 goals or more
34%44¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 364 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on Bayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bayern München not by 3+ goals
66%59¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 549 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or more
5%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,352 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayern München wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 1 goal · RB Leipzig not by 2+ goals
95%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
1%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins by 3 goals or more
1%11¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
NO on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayern München wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or fewer · RB Leipzig not by 3+ goals
99%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 29 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 72.6% · draw 14.6% · away 12.7%
Expected goals
2.94 – 1.21
Bayern München eligible matches
107 (107 with xG)
RB Leipzig eligible matches
107 (107 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
963 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:306, 2026:45
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Bundesliga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 11 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • the model's home probability is 6% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Bayern MünchenOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctFC Augsburgaway2–25.08–2.45D
18 SeptUnion Berlinhome7–03.71–0.34W
13 SeptSV Elversbergaway2–12.83–0.94W
5 SeptFC Schalke 04away0–01.94–0.21D
28 AugVfB Stuttgarthome5–14.06–0.79W
16 May1. FC Kölnhome5–13.05–0.98W
RB LeipzigOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctEintracht Frankfurthome6–03.44–1.38W
20 SeptBayer Leverkusenaway0–20.97–2.27L
13 SeptHamburger SVhome5–02.43–1.10W
5 SeptWerder Bremenaway1–31.50–0.95L
29 AugBorussia Mönchengladbachhome3–03.96–1.09W
16 MaySC Freiburgaway1–41.24–1.41L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17BMURBL-BTTS
66.5%68.5%−2.0 pts0.68 / 0.690.320 / 0Comparable
seen 29 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bayern München to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU
72.6%79.0%−6.4 pts0.78 / 0.800.224,489 / 1,429Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL
12.7%10.0%+2.7 pts0.09 / 0.110.915,663 / 430Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-TIE
14.6%12.0%+2.6 pts0.11 / 0.130.895,577 / 796Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU2
53.1%61.5%−8.4 pts0.60 / 0.630.40368 / 178Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU3
33.7%42.5%−8.8 pts0.41 / 0.440.59364 / 549Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL2
4.7%4.5%+0.2 pts0.02 / 0.070.981,352 / 25Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL3
1.4%6.0%−4.6 pts0.01 / 0.110.9925 / 300Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-1
98.4%98.0%+0.4 pts0.97 / 0.990.03401 / 0Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-2
91.9%94.5%−2.6 pts0.93 / 0.960.07364 / 836Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-3
78.4%84.5%−6.1 pts0.83 / 0.860.17367 / 705Comparable
seen 29 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-4
59.6%67.5%−7.9 pts0.67 / 0.680.330 / 700Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-5
40.1%47.5%−7.4 pts0.47 / 0.480.530 / 909Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-6
23.9%32.0%−8.1 pts0.31 / 0.330.691,115 / 186Comparable
seen 29 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:06:48.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home76.8%73.7% – 78.4%80.6%1.24972.6%−4.1 pts
1x2:draw14.0%12.3% – 15.5%14.3%7.00914.6%+0.7 pts
1x2:away9.9%8.8% – 12.1%10.5%9.50912.7%+2.9 pts

9 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:23.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.581.2%80.6% – 83.6%89.3%1.12678.4%−2.8 pts
total_goals:under:2.518.8%16.4% – 19.4%20.2%4.95621.6%+2.8 pts

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:24.

Every bookmaker page used (15)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 10.75 · draw 6.70 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairMatch winneraway 10.00 · draw 7.50 · home 1.1811/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBOMatch winneraway 7.34 · draw 6.28 · home 1.2111/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
William HillMatch winneraway 9.50 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Match winneraway 9.50 · draw 7.00 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
DafabetMatch winneraway 9.20 · draw 7.60 · home 1.2411/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetMatch winneraway 11.20 · draw 7.03 · home 1.2711/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoMatch winneraway 9.00 · draw 7.00 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorMatch winneraway 9.00 · draw 6.50 · home 1.2011/10/2026, 09:31:2311/10/2026, 06:57:19
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 4.8011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 5.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.17 · under 2.5 5.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 4.8011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.18 · under 2.5 4.9011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.13 · under 2.5 5.7511/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:06:48.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:10 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Bayern Münchenok11/10/2026, 01:39:19 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · RB Leipzigok11/10/2026, 01:39:23 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home72.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw14.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away12.7%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x87.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x227.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1285.4%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes66.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no33.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.598.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.51.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.591.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.58.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.578.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.521.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.559.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.540.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.540.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.559.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.523.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.576.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.594.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.55.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.579.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.520.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.556.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.543.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.534.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.566.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.570.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.529.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.534.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.565.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.512.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.587.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.53.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.596.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.533.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.566.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.553.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.546.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.572.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.527.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.587.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.512.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.595.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.54.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.598.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.51.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home85.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away14.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 573 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:06:48