Bundesliga·Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT

Bayer LeverkusenvSC Freiburg

Bayer Leverkusen

60%

Draw

21%

SC Freiburg

19%

Got%OnIt gives Bayer Leverkusen a 60% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 2.1 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.1 for SC Freiburg.
Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.5 a game.
SC Freiburg won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Bayer Leverkusen are 4th of 18 after 5 games; SC Freiburg are 3rd.
Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 and lost 1; SC Freiburg have won 3 and lost 0.

Recent matches the model used

Bayer Leverkusen

W4–3at FSV Mainz 0510 Oct
W2–0v RB Leipzig20 Sept
D2–2at FC Augsburg12 Sept
W4–0v Union Berlin5 Sept
L2–3at SV Elversberg29 Aug
D1–1v Hamburger SV16 May

SC Freiburg

W2–1v FC Schalke 0411 Oct
D2–2at Eintracht Frankfurt19 Sept
W5–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach12 Sept
W1–0at SC Paderborn 075 Sept
W4–1v Werder Bremen30 Aug
W4–1v RB Leipzig16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 599, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (SC Freiburg)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bayer Leverkusen)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:25 PDT963 finished Bundesliga matches (963 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Available at prediction timeKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationBayer Leverkusen 2.9 d rest (short) · SC Freiburg 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Bayer Leverkusen

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A OFI +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.9 d before (A Lech Poznan) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptBLH RB LeipzigW 2–0counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLA FSV Mainz 05W 4–3counted as workload
Thu 15 OctUELA Lech PoznanNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Thu 22 OctUELA OFI+4.1 d
Sun 25 OctBLA 1899 Hoffenheim+7 d
Tue 27 OctDFBH 1. FC Nürnberg+9.2 d
Sat 31 OctBLH VfB Stuttgart+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 54 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 6 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Bayer Leverkusen: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
P. Schick · regular	F	83	—
I. Maza · regular	M	66	—
M. Diaby	M	75	—
M. Flekken · regular	G	90	0' Netherlands, 13.8 d before
Afonso Moreira	M	75	—
Miguel Gutiérrez	D	90	—
J. Quansah · regular	D	180	90' England, 11.8 d before
Aleix García · regular	M	84	—
R. Andrich	M	90	—
F. Medina	D	90	—
E. Tapsoba · regular	D	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — J. Quansah (90' England, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

SC Freiburg

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa Conference League A Monaco +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa Conference League −2.8 d before (H FK Jablonec) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptBLA Eintracht FrankfurtD 2–2counted as workload
Sun 11 OctBLH FC Schalke 04W 2–1counted as workload
Thu 15 OctUECLH FK JablonecNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Thu 22 OctUECLA Monaco+4.2 d
Sun 25 OctBLH Bayern München+7.1 d
Tue 27 OctDFBH VfL Wolfsburg+9.2 d
Sat 31 OctBLA FC Augsburg+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 11 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.6 CONFIRMED

SC Freiburg: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
J. Makengo · regular	D	90	90	—
P. Treu · regular	D	83	173	90' Germany, 13.8 d before
M. Ginter · regular	D	90	90	—
P. Lienhart · regular	D	90	90	0' Austria, 13.9 d before
Y. Suzuki · regular	M	90	90	—
I. Matanović · regular	F	65	130	65' Croatia, 11.8 d before
D. Scherhant · regular	M	83	166	83' Germany, 13.8 d before
J. Beste · regular	M	69	69	—
Y. Engelhardt · regular	M	69	69	0' Germany, 13.8 d before
M. Eggestein · regular	M	90	90	—
M. Backhaus · regular	G	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 238 minutes — P. Treu (90' Germany, 13.8 d before); I. Matanović (65' Croatia, 11.8 d before); D. Scherhant (83' Germany, 13.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Bayer Leverkusen	60%	57%	56%
Draw	21%	22%	21%
SC Freiburg	19%	21%	22%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 2 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.3 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.

W4–3at FSV Mainz 0510 Oct · in model evidence
W2–0v RB Leipzig20 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2at FC Augsburg12 Sept · in model evidence
W4–0v Union Berlin5 Sept · in model evidence
L2–3at SV Elversberg29 Aug · in model evidence
D1–1v Hamburger SV16 May · in model evidence

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.3 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 80%.

W2–1v FC Schalke 0411 Oct · in model evidence
D2–2at Eintracht Frankfurt19 Sept · in model evidence
W5–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach12 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0at SC Paderborn 075 Sept · in model evidence
W4–1v Werder Bremen30 Aug · in model evidence
W4–1v RB Leipzig16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	4%
1 goal	13%
2 goals	21%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	18%
5 goals	11%
6 or more	10%
Over 1.5	83%
Over 2.5	62%
Over 3.5	40%
Both teams score	58%

Bayer Leverkusen

Expected goals	2.10
Scores at least once	88%
Scores 2 or more	62%
Clean sheet	33%

SC Freiburg

Expected goals	1.10
Scores at least once	67%
Scores 2 or more	30%
Clean sheet	12%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 25 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 3rd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Bayer Leverkusen

4th of 18 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L1 from 5 games · scored 14, conceded 8

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 6, conceded 0) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 8, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WWDWL (most recent last)

SC Freiburg

3rd of 18 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L0 from 4 games · scored 12, conceded 3

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 9, conceded 1) · Away W1 D1 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 4 games

Last five league games DWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Bayer Leverkusen to win (90 minutes)

60%

56%

YES on Bayer Leverkusen to WinBayer Leverkusen wins in 90 minutes

60%58¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 6,628 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

SC Freiburg to win (90 minutes)

19%

22%

YES on SC Freiburg to WinSC Freiburg wins in 90 minutes

19%23¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 349 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

21%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

21%22¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 23 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawBayer Leverkusen or SC Freiburg wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

79%80¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 484 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on SC Freiburg to WinBayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

81%79¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 767 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Bayer Leverkusen to WinSC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

40%46¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 843 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

96%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

96%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 389 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

4%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 332 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

83%

87%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

83%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 658 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

17%15¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 37 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

62%

66%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

62%66¢

Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

38%35¢

Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 2 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

40%

44%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

40%45¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,140 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

60%57¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

22%

26%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

22%27¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,192 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

78%76¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

13%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

10%14¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,140 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

90%89¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 588 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

58%

63%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

58%65¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,711 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

42%39¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,917 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

37%

34%

Limited evidence

YES on Bayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayer Leverkusen wins by 2 goals or more

37%36¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 390 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Bayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn, or Bayer Leverkusen wins by 1 goal · Bayer Leverkusen not by 2+ goals

63%68¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 759 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

19%

18%

Limited evidence

YES on Bayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayer Leverkusen wins by 3 goals or more

19%19¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,226 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on Bayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn, or Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bayer Leverkusen not by 3+ goals

81%84¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 390 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

SC Freiburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on SC Freiburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSC Freiburg wins by 2 goals or more

7%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 391 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on SC Freiburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Freiburg wins by 1 goal · SC Freiburg not by 2+ goals

93%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 717 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

SC Freiburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on SC Freiburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSC Freiburg wins by 3 goals or more

2%12¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

NO on SC Freiburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Freiburg wins by 2 goals or fewer · SC Freiburg not by 3+ goals

98%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,032 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 60.4% · draw 20.5% · away 19.1%
Expected goals: 2.10 – 1.10
Bayer Leverkusen eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
SC Freiburg eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 963 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:306, 2026:45
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: none

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Bundesliga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 11 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Bayer Leverkusen	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	FSV Mainz 05	away	4–3	1.68–2.91	W
20 Sept	RB Leipzig	home	2–0	2.27–0.97	W
12 Sept	FC Augsburg	away	2–2	2.64–1.11	D
5 Sept	Union Berlin	home	4–0	3.11–0.39	W
29 Aug	SV Elversberg	away	2–3	1.88–1.27	L
16 May	Hamburger SV	home	1–1	3.27–1.79	D

SC Freiburg	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	FC Schalke 04	home	2–1	1.07–0.32	W
19 Sept	Eintracht Frankfurt	away	2–2	3.09–2.18	D
12 Sept	Borussia Mönchengladbach	home	5–0	2.60–0.19	W
5 Sept	SC Paderborn 07	away	1–0	1.24–0.77	W
30 Aug	Werder Bremen	home	4–1	2.37–0.54	W
16 May	RB Leipzig	home	4–1	1.41–1.24	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT18LEVSCF-BTTS	58.4%	63.0%	−4.6 pts	0.61 / 0.65	0.39	5,711 / 4,917	Comparable seen 2 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Bayer Leverkusen to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV	60.4%	56.0%	+4.4 pts	0.54 / 0.58	0.46	6,628 / 843	Comparable seen 2 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
SC Freiburg to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF	19.1%	22.0%	−2.9 pts	0.21 / 0.23	0.79	349 / 767	Comparable seen 2 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-TIE	20.5%	21.0%	−0.5 pts	0.20 / 0.22	0.80	23 / 484	Comparable seen 2 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV2	37.3%	34.0%	+3.3 pts	0.32 / 0.36	0.68	390 / 759	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV3	19.0%	17.5%	+1.5 pts	0.16 / 0.19	0.84	1,226 / 390	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
SC Freiburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF2	7.0%	8.5%	−1.5 pts	0.07 / 0.10	0.93	391 / 717	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
SC Freiburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF3	2.0%	6.5%	−4.5 pts	0.01 / 0.12	0.99	4 / 1,032	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-1	95.9%	96.0%	−0.1 pts	0.94 / 0.98	0.06	389 / 332	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-2	82.8%	86.5%	−3.7 pts	0.85 / 0.88	0.15	658 / 37	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-3	61.9%	65.5%	−3.6 pts	0.65 / 0.66	0.35	3 / 0	Comparable seen 2 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-4	39.6%	44.0%	−4.4 pts	0.43 / 0.45	0.57	1,140 / 250	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-5	21.9%	25.5%	−3.6 pts	0.24 / 0.27	0.76	1,192 / 2	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-6	10.5%	12.5%	−2.0 pts	0.11 / 0.14	0.89	1,140 / 588	Comparable seen 2 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:06:48.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	56.9%	55.5% – 57.8%	60.6%	1.65	10	60.4%	+3.5 pts
1x2:draw	22.1%	21.4% – 22.8%	23.4%	4.28	10	20.5%	−1.5 pts
1x2:away	20.9%	20.4% – 21.7%	22.2%	4.50	10	19.1%	−1.9 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:27.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	64.3%	63.3% – 66.3%	69.0%	1.45	7	61.9%	−2.4 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	35.7%	33.7% – 36.7%	38.2%	2.62	7	38.1%	+2.4 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:28.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 4.70 · draw 4.40 · home 1.66	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Match winner	away 4.50 · draw 4.33 · home 1.62	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 4.46 · draw 4.43 · home 1.65	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBO	Match winner	away 4.10 · draw 3.90 · home 1.60	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
William Hill	Match winner	away 4.40 · draw 4.20 · home 1.62	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Match winner	away 4.50 · draw 4.20 · home 1.65	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Dafabet	Match winner	away 4.50 · draw 4.30 · home 1.68	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Match winner	away 4.82 · draw 4.51 · home 1.70	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Match winner	away 4.55 · draw 4.25 · home 1.67	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Match winner	away 4.33 · draw 4.00 · home 1.62	11/10/2026, 09:31:27	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.58	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.47 · under 2.5 2.67	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.62	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.58	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.70	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.50	11/10/2026, 09:31:28	11/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:06:48.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:14 (Last checked 25 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Bayer Leverkusen	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:21 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · SC Freiburg	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:20 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	60.4%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	20.5%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	19.1%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	80.9%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	39.6%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	79.5%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	58.4%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	41.6%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	95.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	4.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	82.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	17.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	61.9%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	38.1%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	39.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	60.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	21.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	78.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	10.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	89.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	87.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	12.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	62.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	38.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	35.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	65.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	16.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	83.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	66.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	33.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	30.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	70.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	9.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	90.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	2.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	97.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	19.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	81.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	37.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	62.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	60.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	39.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	80.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	19.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	93.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	7.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	98.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	2.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	76.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	24.0%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 599 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:06:48