Got%OnIt
Matches
Bundesliga·Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT

Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC Köln

Eintracht Frankfurt
54%
Draw
21%
1. FC Köln
25%

Got%OnIt gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 54% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.1 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.4 for 1. FC Köln.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.0 a game.
  • 1. FC Köln won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.5 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Eintracht Frankfurt are 13th of 18 after 5 games; 1. FC Köln are 14th.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1 and lost 2; 1. FC Köln have won 1 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • L0–6at RB Leipzig10 Oct
  • D2–2v SC Freiburg19 Sept
  • W3–1at FSV Mainz 0512 Sept
  • L1–4v FC Augsburg6 Sept
  • D3–3at Union Berlin29 Aug
  • D2–2v VfB Stuttgart16 May

1. FC Köln

  • W2–1v Borussia Mönchengladbach11 Oct
  • L1–2at Hamburger SV19 Sept
  • D1–1v Werder Bremen12 Sept
  • L1–4at VfB Stuttgart4 Sept
  • W3–2v 1899 Hoffenheim29 Aug
  • L1–5at Bayern München16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 535, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Eintracht Frankfurt)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (1. FC Köln)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-16T18:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:25 PDT963 finished Bundesliga matches (963 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationEintracht Frankfurt 6 d rest · 1. FC Köln 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Eintracht Frankfurt

6.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A Borussia Dortmund +7.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLH SC FreiburgD 2–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA RB LeipzigL 0–6counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLA Borussia Dortmund+7.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBA Hamburger SV+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 47 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 3 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78.7 CONFIRMED

Eintracht Frankfurt: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. AtuboluG90900' Germany, 12 d before
N. CollinsD9090—
R. Koch · regularD4545—
R. OnyedikaM9090—
N. Aséko NkiliM7373—
K. KosugiM4545—
R. DōanM7373—
J. Burkardt · regularF9015464' Germany, 12 d before
L. BrassierD9090—
A. KnauffM9090—
C. Uzun · regularM9090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 64 minutes — J. Burkardt (64' Germany, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

1. FC Köln

5.2 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga H FC Schalke 04 +7.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLA Hamburger SVL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctBLH Borussia MönchengladbachW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLH FC Schalke 04+7.8 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH Union Berlin+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 39 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Castro-Montes (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 83.3 CONFIRMED

1. FC Köln: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. SkhiriM4545—
S. El Mala · regularF7810426' Germany, 12 d before
S. SebulonsenD9090—
M. Schwäbe · regularG9090—
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey · regularD9090—
L. LochoshviliD7825890' Georgia, 14 d before; 90' Georgia, 11 d before
B. SosaD9090—
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson · regularM9027090' Iceland, 13.1 d before; 90' Iceland, 10 d before
L. MainaM9090—
M. MooreM8585—
M. Bülter · regularF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 386 minutes — S. El Mala (26' Germany, 12 d before); L. Lochoshvili (90' Georgia, 14 d before; 90' Georgia, 11 d before); Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson (90' Iceland, 13.1 d before; 90' Iceland, 10 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Eintracht Frankfurt54%49%50%
Draw21%23%23%
1. FC Köln25%28%28%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 5 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 30 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • Eintracht Frankfurt: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 2.7 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 90%.
  • L0–6at RB Leipzig10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D2–2v SC Freiburg19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1at FSV Mainz 0512 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4v FC Augsburg6 Sept · in model evidence
  • D3–3at Union Berlin29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v VfB Stuttgart16 May · in model evidence

1. FC Köln

  • 1. FC Köln: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 2.3 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 100%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W2–1v Borussia Mönchengladbach11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Hamburger SV19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Werder Bremen12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at VfB Stuttgart4 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v 1899 Hoffenheim29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–5at Bayern München16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals3%
1 goal11%
2 goals19%
3 goals22%
4 goals19%
5 goals13%
6 or more14%
Over 1.586%
Over 2.567%
Over 3.545%
Both teams score65%

Eintracht Frankfurt

Expected goals2.09
Scores at least once88%
Scores 2 or more62%
Clean sheet25%

1. FC Köln

Expected goals1.37
Scores at least once75%
Scores 2 or more40%
Clean sheet12%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season13th v 14th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Eintracht Frankfurt

13th of 18 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L2 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 16

Home W0 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 6) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 6, conceded 10)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LDWLD (most recent last)

1. FC Köln

14th of 18 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L2 from 4 games · scored 6, conceded 9

Home W1 D1 L0 (scored 4, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 4 games

Last five league games LDLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
1. FC Köln to win (90 minutes)
25%
28%
YES on 1. FC Köln to Win1. FC Köln wins in 90 minutes
25%29¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win (90 minutes)
54%
50%
YES on Eintracht Frankfurt to WinEintracht Frankfurt wins in 90 minutes
54%50¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 401 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
21%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
21%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 736 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawEintracht Frankfurt or 1. FC Köln wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
79%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 709 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on 1. FC Köln to WinEintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
75%73¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,048 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
46%51¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
97%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
97%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 377 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
3%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 213 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
86%
88%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
86%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 377 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
14%13¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 204 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
67%
70%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
67%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 641 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
33%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 204 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
45%
49%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
45%50¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,129 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
55%52¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 204 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
27%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
73%71¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
14%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,329 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
86%85¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
65%
70%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
65%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,076 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
35%31¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 30 min old
Winning margin
1. FC Köln to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on 1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 1.5 Goals1. FC Köln wins by 2 goals or more
11%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 938 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on 1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn, or 1. FC Köln wins by 1 goal · 1. FC Köln not by 2+ goals
89%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 700 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
1. FC Köln to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on 1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 2.5 Goals1. FC Köln wins by 3 goals or more
4%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,069 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on 1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn, or 1. FC Köln wins by 2 goals or fewer · 1. FC Köln not by 3+ goals
96%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 12 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
32%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEintracht Frankfurt wins by 2 goals or more
32%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,129 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 1.5 Goals1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn, or Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 1 goal · Eintracht Frankfurt not by 2+ goals
68%73¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 676 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEintracht Frankfurt wins by 3 goals or more
16%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 938 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 2.5 Goals1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn, or Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2 goals or fewer · Eintracht Frankfurt not by 3+ goals
84%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 650 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 54.0% · draw 21.1% · away 25.0%
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.37
Eintracht Frankfurt eligible matches
107 (107 with xG)
1. FC Köln eligible matches
73 (73 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
963 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:306, 2026:45
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Bundesliga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 11 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Eintracht FrankfurtOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctRB Leipzigaway0–61.38–3.44L
19 SeptSC Freiburghome2–22.18–3.09D
12 SeptFSV Mainz 05away3–12.04–2.12W
6 SeptFC Augsburghome1–42.22–1.13L
29 AugUnion Berlinaway3–31.47–1.84D
16 MayVfB Stuttgarthome2–22.56–1.32D
1. FC KölnOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctBorussia Mönchengladbachhome2–11.46–1.12W
19 SeptHamburger SVaway1–21.41–1.45L
12 SeptWerder Bremenhome1–11.65–1.12D
4 SeptVfB Stuttgartaway1–42.86–3.47L
29 Aug1899 Hoffenheimhome3–21.95–1.88W
16 MayBayern Münchenaway1–50.98–3.05L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT16SGEKOE-BTTS
65.4%69.5%−4.1 pts0.69 / 0.700.316,076 / 0Comparable
seen 30 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
1. FC Köln to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE
25.0%28.0%−3.0 pts0.27 / 0.290.73330 / 1,048Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Eintracht Frankfurt to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE
54.0%49.5%+4.5 pts0.49 / 0.500.51401 / 330Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-TIE
21.1%23.0%−1.9 pts0.22 / 0.240.78736 / 709Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
1. FC Köln to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE2
10.7%12.5%−1.8 pts0.11 / 0.140.89938 / 700Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
1. FC Köln to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE3
3.7%5.5%−1.8 pts0.04 / 0.070.961,069 / 12Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE2
32.3%28.5%+3.8 pts0.27 / 0.300.731,129 / 676Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE3
16.0%14.0%+2.0 pts0.13 / 0.150.87938 / 650Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-1
96.9%96.5%+0.4 pts0.95 / 0.980.05377 / 213Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-2
86.0%88.0%−2.0 pts0.87 / 0.890.13377 / 204Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-3
67.1%70.0%−2.9 pts0.69 / 0.710.31641 / 204Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-4
45.4%49.0%−3.6 pts0.48 / 0.500.521,129 / 204Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-5
26.7%29.5%−2.8 pts0.29 / 0.300.71750 / 2Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-6
13.7%16.0%−2.3 pts0.15 / 0.170.851,329 / 3Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:07:34.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home49.2%46.6% – 50.5%52.5%1.911054.0%+4.8 pts
1x2:draw23.3%22.6% – 24.3%24.7%4.051021.1%−2.2 pts
1x2:away27.8%26.7% – 29.1%29.2%3.421025.0%−2.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:09.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.568.6%66.3% – 70.2%73.5%1.36767.1%−1.5 pts
total_goals:under:2.531.4%29.8% – 33.7%34.1%2.93732.9%+1.5 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:10.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.44 · draw 4.20 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.40 · draw 4.10 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.56 · draw 4.17 · home 1.8811/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBOMatch winneraway 3.04 · draw 3.64 · home 1.9011/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
William HillMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.90 · home 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Match winneraway 3.50 · draw 4.00 · home 1.9011/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.45 · draw 4.10 · home 1.9411/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.52 · draw 4.30 · home 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.40 · draw 4.00 · home 1.9811/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.90 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 3.0611/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.8511/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 2.8211/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:07:34.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:01 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Eintracht Frankfurtok11/10/2026, 01:39:22 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · 1. FC Kölnok11/10/2026, 01:39:24 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home54.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw21.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away25.0%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x75.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x246.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1278.9%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes65.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no34.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.596.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.53.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.586.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.514.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.567.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.532.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.545.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.554.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.526.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.573.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.513.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.586.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.587.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.512.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.561.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.538.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.534.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.565.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.515.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.584.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.574.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.525.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.539.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.560.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.516.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.584.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.594.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.516.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.584.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.532.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.567.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.554.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.546.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.575.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.525.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.589.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.510.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.596.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.53.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home68.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away31.6%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 535 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:07:34