Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT

Union BerlinvBorussia Dortmund

Union Berlin

22%

Draw

23%

Borussia Dortmund

54%

Got%OnIt gives Borussia Dortmund a 54% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Union Berlin and 1.8 for Borussia Dortmund.
Union Berlin won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.8 a game.
Borussia Dortmund won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.7 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Union Berlin are 16th of 18 after 5 games; Borussia Dortmund are 1st.
Union Berlin have won 1 and lost 3; Borussia Dortmund have won 4 and lost 0.

Recent matches the model used

Union Berlin

W1–0v SV Elversberg10 Oct
L0–7at Bayern München18 Sept
L1–3v FC Schalke 0411 Sept
L0–4at Bayer Leverkusen5 Sept
D3–3v Eintracht Frankfurt29 Aug
W4–0v FC Augsburg16 May

Borussia Dortmund

D2–2v Werder Bremen9 Oct
W1–0at VfB Stuttgart19 Sept
W3–0v SC Paderborn 0712 Sept
W3–2at 1899 Hoffenheim5 Sept
W2–0v Hamburger SV29 Aug
W2–0at Werder Bremen16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT; snapshot 324, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Borussia Dortmund)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Union Berlin)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 08:32 PDT962 finished Bundesliga matches (962 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:30:00+00:00
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationUnion Berlin 7 d rest · Borussia Dortmund 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Union Berlin

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A FC Augsburg +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Fri 18 SeptBLA Bayern MünchenL 0–7counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLH SV ElversbergW 1–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctBLA FC Augsburg+7 d
Tue 27 OctDFBA 1. FC Köln+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 19 in the squad); 40 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 4 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 83.7 CONFIRMED

Union Berlin: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
K. Imeri	M	58	58	—
Jeong Woo-Yeong	M	78	78	—
A. Schäfer	M	90	162	72' Hungary, 11.8 d before
R. Khedira · regular	M	90	90	—
T. Skarke	F	78	78	—
T. Rothe · regular	D	90	90	—
J. Haberer	D	90	90	—
Z. Van Den Bosch	D	90	90	—
F. Uduokhai	D	90	90	—
M. Aebischer	M	77	144	67' Switzerland, 13.8 d before; 0' Switzerland, 10.8 d before
F. Rønnow	G	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 139 minutes — A. Schäfer (72' Hungary, 11.8 d before); M. Aebischer (67' Switzerland, 13.8 d before; 0' Switzerland, 10.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Borussia Dortmund

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Sabah FA +3.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.8 d before (A Bodo/Glimt); UEFA Champions League +3.1 d after (A Sabah FA) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptBLA VfB StuttgartW 1–0counted as workload
Fri 9 OctBLH Werder BremenD 2–2counted as workload
Wed 14 OctUCLA Bodo/GlimtNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Tue 20 OctUCLA Sabah FA+3.1 d
Sat 24 OctBLH Eintracht Frankfurt+7.1 d
Tue 27 OctDFBH Werder Bremen+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Ryerson (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Borussia Dortmund: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
E. Nwaneri	M	63	—
S. Guirassy · regular	F	90	—
M. Beier · regular	M	90	—
D. Svensson · regular	M	126	36' Sweden, 11.8 d before
F. Nmecha · regular	M	90	—
J. Bellingham · regular	M	72	—
M. Sabitzer	M	72	—
N. Schlotterbeck	D	90	—
W. Anton · regular	D	180	90' Germany, 12.8 d before
Kouakou Joane Gadou · regular	D	90	—
G. Kobel · regular	G	180	90' Switzerland, 13.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 318 minutes — D. Svensson (36' Sweden, 11.8 d before); W. Anton (90' Germany, 12.8 d before); K. Karetsas (44' Greece, 12.8 d before); J. Veerman (58' Netherlands, 12.8 d before); G. Kobel (90' Switzerland, 13.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Union Berlin	22%	21%	19%
Draw	23%	22%	21%
Borussia Dortmund	54%	57%	60%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen moments ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Borussia Dortmund a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (54% vs 60%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Union Berlin

Union Berlin: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.6 and conceded 2.5 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 90%.

W1–0v SV Elversberg10 Oct · in model evidence
L0–7at Bayern München18 Sept · in model evidence
L1–3v FC Schalke 0411 Sept · in model evidence
L0–4at Bayer Leverkusen5 Sept · in model evidence
D3–3v Eintracht Frankfurt29 Aug · in model evidence
W4–0v FC Augsburg16 May · in model evidence

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.1 and conceded 0.9 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 60%.

D2–2v Werder Bremen9 Oct · in model evidence
W1–0at VfB Stuttgart19 Sept · in model evidence
W3–0v SC Paderborn 0712 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2at 1899 Hoffenheim5 Sept · in model evidence
W2–0v Hamburger SV29 Aug · in model evidence
W2–0at Werder Bremen16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	6%
1 goal	17%
2 goals	24%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	16%
5 goals	9%
6 or more	7%
Over 1.5	77%
Over 2.5	54%
Over 3.5	31%
Both teams score	54%

Union Berlin

Expected goals	1.05
Scores at least once	65%
Scores 2 or more	28%
Clean sheet	17%

Borussia Dortmund

Expected goals	1.78
Scores at least once	83%
Scores 2 or more	53%
Clean sheet	35%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 24 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season16th v 1st

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Union Berlin

16th of 18 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 17

Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 5, conceded 6) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 0, conceded 11)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 2 in 5 games

Last five league games WLLLD (most recent last)

Borussia Dortmund

1st of 18 · 13 pts · W4 D1 L0 from 5 games · scored 11, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 7, conceded 2) · Away W2 D0 L0 (scored 4, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games DWWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes)

54%

60%

YES on Borussia Dortmund to WinBorussia Dortmund wins in 90 minutes

54%60¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 737 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

23%

21%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

23%22¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,352 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Union Berlin to win (90 minutes)

22%

19%

YES on Union Berlin to WinUnion Berlin wins in 90 minutes

22%20¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,531 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawUnion Berlin or Borussia Dortmund wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

77%80¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,876 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Borussia Dortmund to WinUnion Berlin wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

46%41¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Union Berlin to WinBorussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

78%82¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,194 contracts at the ask · quote just now

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

94%

96%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

94%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 393 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

6%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 241 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

77%

84%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

77%85¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,267 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

23%17¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 990 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

54%

65%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

54%66¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,343 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

46%36¢

Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote just now

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

31%

42%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

31%43¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 393 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

69%59¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 213 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

16%

24%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

16%25¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,343 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

84%77¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 217 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

12%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

7%13¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,344 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

93%90¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 637 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

54%

61%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

54%62¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,536 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

46%40¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 65 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

30%

36%

Limited evidence

YES on Borussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBorussia Dortmund wins by 2 goals or more

30%37¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 395 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Borussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUnion Berlin wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Dortmund wins by 1 goal · Borussia Dortmund not by 2+ goals

70%65¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 71 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

14%

18%

Limited evidence

YES on Borussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBorussia Dortmund wins by 3 goals or more

14%19¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 850 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Borussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUnion Berlin wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Dortmund wins by 2 goals or fewer · Borussia Dortmund not by 3+ goals

86%83¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,416 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Union Berlin to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Union Berlin to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUnion Berlin wins by 2 goals or more

8%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 394 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Union Berlin to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBorussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn, or Union Berlin wins by 1 goal · Union Berlin not by 2+ goals

92%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 10,738 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Union Berlin to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Union Berlin to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUnion Berlin wins by 3 goals or more

2%5¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Union Berlin to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBorussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn, or Union Berlin wins by 2 goals or fewer · Union Berlin not by 3+ goals

98%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,038 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 22.3% · draw 23.3% · away 54.4%
Expected goals: 1.05 – 1.78
Union Berlin eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
Borussia Dortmund eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 962 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:306, 2026:44
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 09:30:10
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: none

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Bundesliga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 9 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
the model's away probability is 5% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Union Berlin	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	SV Elversberg	home	1–0	1.59–0.28	W
18 Sept	Bayern München	away	0–7	0.34–3.71	L
11 Sept	FC Schalke 04	home	1–3	1.95–2.52	L
5 Sept	Bayer Leverkusen	away	0–4	0.39–3.11	L
29 Aug	Eintracht Frankfurt	home	3–3	1.84–1.47	D
16 May	FC Augsburg	home	4–0	3.68–0.61	W

Borussia Dortmund	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
9 Oct	Werder Bremen	home	2–2	2.50–1.19	D
19 Sept	VfB Stuttgart	away	1–0	1.34–0.87	W
12 Sept	SC Paderborn 07	home	3–0	1.76–0.49	W
5 Sept	1899 Hoffenheim	away	3–2	2.02–1.17	W
29 Aug	Hamburger SV	home	2–0	1.53–0.91	W
16 May	Werder Bremen	away	2–0	2.74–0.49	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17UNIBVB-BTTS	54.0%	61.0%	−7.0 pts	0.60 / 0.62	0.40	4,536 / 65	Comparable seen moments ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB	54.4%	59.5%	−5.1 pts	0.59 / 0.60	0.41	737 / 330	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Union Berlin to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI	22.3%	19.0%	+3.3 pts	0.18 / 0.20	0.82	1,531 / 2,194	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-TIE	23.3%	21.0%	+2.3 pts	0.20 / 0.22	0.80	1,352 / 1,876	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB2	30.5%	36.0%	−5.5 pts	0.35 / 0.37	0.65	395 / 71	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB3	13.8%	18.0%	−4.2 pts	0.17 / 0.19	0.83	850 / 7,416	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Union Berlin to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI2	8.2%	7.5%	+0.7 pts	0.06 / 0.09	0.94	394 / 10,738	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Union Berlin to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI3	2.3%	3.0%	−0.7 pts	0.01 / 0.05	0.99	25 / 1,038	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-1	94.1%	96.0%	−1.9 pts	0.94 / 0.98	0.06	393 / 241	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-2	77.4%	84.0%	−6.6 pts	0.83 / 0.85	0.17	4,267 / 990	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-3	53.7%	65.0%	−11.3 pts	0.64 / 0.66	0.36	1,343 / 0	Comparable seen moments ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-4	31.4%	42.0%	−10.6 pts	0.41 / 0.43	0.59	393 / 213	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-5	15.7%	24.0%	−8.3 pts	0.23 / 0.25	0.77	1,343 / 217	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-6	6.8%	11.5%	−4.7 pts	0.10 / 0.13	0.90	1,344 / 637	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:06:05.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	20.6%	19.6% – 21.4%	21.7%	4.62	10	22.3%	+1.8 pts
1x2:draw	22.4%	22.0% – 23.4%	23.8%	4.20	10	23.3%	+0.9 pts
1x2:away	57.0%	55.5% – 57.7%	60.6%	1.65	10	54.4%	−2.6 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:12.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	63.6%	62.4% – 64.4%	68.0%	1.47	7	53.7%	−9.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	36.4%	35.6% – 37.6%	38.9%	2.57	7	46.3%	+9.9 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:15.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 1.68 · draw 4.33 · home 4.60	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Match winner	away 1.62 · draw 4.20 · home 4.60	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 1.65 · draw 4.31 · home 4.63	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBO	Match winner	away 1.57 · draw 3.92 · home 4.28	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
William Hill	Match winner	away 1.67 · draw 4.00 · home 4.33	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Match winner	away 1.65 · draw 4.00 · home 4.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Dafabet	Match winner	away 1.66 · draw 4.30 · home 4.70	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Match winner	away 1.73 · draw 4.45 · home 4.72	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Match winner	away 1.65 · draw 4.20 · home 4.85	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Match winner	away 1.60 · draw 4.00 · home 4.40	11/10/2026, 09:31:12	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.53	11/10/2026, 09:31:15	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.60	11/10/2026, 09:31:15	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.57	11/10/2026, 09:31:15	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.62	11/10/2026, 09:31:15	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.53	11/10/2026, 09:31:15	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.52 · under 2.5 2.65	11/10/2026, 09:31:15	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.47 · under 2.5 2.44	11/10/2026, 09:31:15	11/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:06:05.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:04 (Last checked 24 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Union Berlin	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:24 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Borussia Dortmund	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:21 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	22.3%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	23.3%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	54.4%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	45.6%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	77.7%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	76.7%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	54.0%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	46.0%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	94.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	5.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	77.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	22.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	53.7%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	46.3%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	31.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	68.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	15.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	84.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	6.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	93.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	65.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	34.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	28.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	71.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	9.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	91.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	2.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	97.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	83.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	16.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	53.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	47.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	26.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	73.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	10.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	89.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	2.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	97.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	8.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	91.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	22.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	77.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	45.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	54.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	69.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	30.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	86.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	13.8%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	29.1%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	70.9%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 324 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:06:05