Got%OnIt
Matches
Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT

Hamburger SVvVfB Stuttgart

Hamburger SV
26%
Draw
22%
VfB Stuttgart
52%

Got%OnIt gives VfB Stuttgart a 52% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Hamburger SV and 1.9 for VfB Stuttgart.
  • Hamburger SV won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.7 a game.
  • VfB Stuttgart won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Hamburger SV are 11th of 18 after 5 games; VfB Stuttgart are 10th.
  • Hamburger SV have won 2 and lost 3; VfB Stuttgart have won 2 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Hamburger SV

  • W3–2at 1899 Hoffenheim10 Oct
  • W2–1v 1. FC Köln19 Sept
  • L0–5at RB Leipzig13 Sept
  • L0–5v FSV Mainz 056 Sept
  • L0–2at Borussia Dortmund29 Aug
  • D1–1at Bayer Leverkusen16 May

VfB Stuttgart

  • W2–0at SC Paderborn 0710 Oct
  • L0–1v Borussia Dortmund19 Sept
  • L1–2at 1899 Hoffenheim12 Sept
  • W4–1v 1. FC Köln4 Sept
  • L1–5at Bayern München28 Aug
  • D2–2at Eintracht Frankfurt16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 551, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (VfB Stuttgart)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Hamburger SV)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:25 PDT963 finished Bundesliga matches (963 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Available at prediction timeKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationHamburger SV 1 absent regular · VfB Stuttgart 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Hamburger SV

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A SC Paderborn 07 +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLH 1. FC KölnW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA 1899 HoffenheimW 3–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLA SC Paderborn 07+7 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH Eintracht Frankfurt+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 40 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Gronbaek (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78.9 CONFIRMED

Hamburger SV: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
L. LemkeM7676—
Y. PoulsenF5959—
Fábio Vieira · regularM9090—
D. Møller WolfeM9018090' Norway, 12.8 d before
N. Remberg · regularM4141—
W. Omari · regularD9090—
M. AdelineM7676—
A. Sambi Lokonga · regularM7676—
Daniel Heuer Fernandes · regularG9090—
S. BornauwD9090—
N. Capaldo · regularD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 180 minutes — D. Møller Wolfe (90' Norway, 12.8 d before); I. Pherai (90' Suriname, 11.6 d before) CONFIRMED

VfB Stuttgart

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Atletico Madrid +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.8 d before (A Slovan Bratislava); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H Atletico Madrid) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLH Borussia DortmundL 0–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA SC Paderborn 07W 2–0counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLA Slovan BratislavaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLH Atletico Madrid+3.2 d
  • Fri 23 OctBLH Borussia Mönchengladbach+6.2 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBA SC Paderborn 07+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 56 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.1 CONFIRMED

VfB Stuttgart: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
R. Hendriks · regularD9090—
J. Chabot · regularD7272—
A. Stiller · regularM9090—
E. Demirović · regularF7715578' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 11.8 d before
J. LewelingM7777—
A. KarazorM9090—
J. VagnomanM9090—
D. SeimenG9090—
M. Mittelstädt · regularD90900' Germany, 12.8 d before
D. Undav · regularM8585—
C. Führich · regularM8585—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 101 minutes — L. Sauer (23' Slovakia, 10.8 d before); E. Demirović (78' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Hamburger SV26%25%24%
Draw22%24%23%
VfB Stuttgart52%52%53%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 2 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Hamburger SV

  • Hamburger SV: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 2.4 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W3–2at 1899 Hoffenheim10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v 1. FC Köln19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–5at RB Leipzig13 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–5v FSV Mainz 056 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Borussia Dortmund29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Bayer Leverkusen16 May · in model evidence

VfB Stuttgart

  • VfB Stuttgart: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.9 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W2–0at SC Paderborn 0710 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Borussia Dortmund19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at 1899 Hoffenheim12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1v 1. FC Köln4 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–5at Bayern München28 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Eintracht Frankfurt16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal13%
2 goals21%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals11%
6 or more11%
Over 1.583%
Over 2.562%
Over 3.540%
Both teams score62%

Hamburger SV

Expected goals1.29
Scores at least once72%
Scores 2 or more37%
Clean sheet15%

VfB Stuttgart

Expected goals1.91
Scores at least once85%
Scores 2 or more57%
Clean sheet28%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 24 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season11th v 10th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Hamburger SV

11th of 18 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L3 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 15

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 3, conceded 9)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games WWLLL (most recent last)

VfB Stuttgart

10th of 18 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L3 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 9

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 2) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 4, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WLLWL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Hamburger SV to win (90 minutes)
26%
24%
YES on Hamburger SV to WinHamburger SV wins in 90 minutes
26%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,422 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
22%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
22%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes)
52%
53%
YES on VfB Stuttgart to WinVfB Stuttgart wins in 90 minutes
52%54¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,840 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawHamburger SV or VfB Stuttgart wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
78%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,105 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on VfB Stuttgart to WinHamburger SV wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
48%48¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Hamburger SV to WinVfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
74%77¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 630 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 391 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%5¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 17 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
83%
89%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
83%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 630 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
17%13¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 13 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
62%
69%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
62%70¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 391 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
38%32¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 211 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
40%
48%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
40%49¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 391 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
60%53¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 211 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
22%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,341 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
78%71¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
11%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 390 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
89%85¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
62%
68%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
62%68¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
38%33¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,088 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Winning margin
Hamburger SV to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Hamburger SV to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsHamburger SV wins by 2 goals or more
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 478 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Hamburger SV to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn, or Hamburger SV wins by 1 goal · Hamburger SV not by 2+ goals
89%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Hamburger SV to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Hamburger SV to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsHamburger SV wins by 3 goals or more
4%8¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on Hamburger SV to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn, or Hamburger SV wins by 2 goals or fewer · Hamburger SV not by 3+ goals
96%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
30%
32%
Limited evidence
YES on VfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVfB Stuttgart wins by 2 goals or more
30%32¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,242 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on VfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsHamburger SV wins or the match is drawn, or VfB Stuttgart wins by 1 goal · VfB Stuttgart not by 2+ goals
70%69¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 54 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on VfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVfB Stuttgart wins by 3 goals or more
14%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,050 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
NO on VfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsHamburger SV wins or the match is drawn, or VfB Stuttgart wins by 2 goals or fewer · VfB Stuttgart not by 3+ goals
86%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 2 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 25.8% · draw 22.3% · away 51.9%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.91
Hamburger SV eligible matches
39 (39 with xG)
VfB Stuttgart eligible matches
107 (107 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
963 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:306, 2026:45
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Bundesliga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 11 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Hamburger SVOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 Oct1899 Hoffenheimaway3–21.15–1.09W
19 Sept1. FC Kölnhome2–11.45–1.41W
13 SeptRB Leipzigaway0–51.10–2.43L
6 SeptFSV Mainz 05home0–50.19–2.77L
29 AugBorussia Dortmundaway0–20.91–1.53L
16 MayBayer Leverkusenaway1–11.79–3.27D
VfB StuttgartOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctSC Paderborn 07away2–02.45–1.91W
19 SeptBorussia Dortmundhome0–10.87–1.34L
12 Sept1899 Hoffenheimaway1–22.16–2.76L
4 Sept1. FC Kölnhome4–13.47–2.86W
28 AugBayern Münchenaway1–50.79–4.06L
16 MayEintracht Frankfurtaway2–21.32–2.56D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17HSVVFB-BTTS
61.7%67.5%−5.8 pts0.67 / 0.680.330 / 1,088Comparable
seen 2 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Hamburger SV to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV
25.8%24.0%+1.8 pts0.23 / 0.250.773,422 / 630Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB
51.9%53.0%−1.1 pts0.52 / 0.540.484,840 / 330Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-TIE
22.3%23.0%−0.7 pts0.22 / 0.240.78330 / 1,105Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Hamburger SV to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV2
10.8%10.0%+0.8 pts0.09 / 0.110.91478 / 25Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Hamburger SV to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV3
3.6%5.0%−1.4 pts0.02 / 0.080.9825 / 25Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB2
29.7%31.5%−1.8 pts0.31 / 0.320.691,242 / 54Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB3
13.9%16.0%−2.1 pts0.15 / 0.170.851,050 / 25Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-1
95.9%96.5%−0.6 pts0.95 / 0.980.05391 / 17Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-2
82.8%88.5%−5.7 pts0.87 / 0.900.13630 / 13Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-3
61.9%69.0%−7.1 pts0.68 / 0.700.32391 / 211Comparable
seen 2 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-4
39.7%48.0%−8.3 pts0.47 / 0.490.53391 / 211Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-5
21.9%29.5%−7.6 pts0.29 / 0.300.711,341 / 2Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-6
10.5%15.5%−5.0 pts0.15 / 0.160.85390 / 3Comparable
seen 2 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:06:28.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home25.0%23.5% – 26.9%26.7%3.751025.8%+0.8 pts
1x2:draw23.5%22.6% – 24.7%24.8%4.041022.3%−1.2 pts
1x2:away51.7%49.2% – 52.3%54.8%1.821051.9%+0.2 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:16.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.568.6%67.0% – 71.1%73.5%1.36761.9%−6.7 pts
total_goals:under:2.531.4%28.9% – 33.0%34.1%2.93738.1%+6.7 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:17.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.85 · draw 3.98 · home 3.9811/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.80 · draw 4.10 · home 3.6011/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.83 · draw 3.85 · home 4.0411/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBOMatch winneraway 1.80 · draw 3.71 · home 3.3011/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
William HillMatch winneraway 1.83 · draw 3.75 · home 3.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Match winneraway 1.80 · draw 4.10 · home 3.7011/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.84 · draw 4.10 · home 3.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.90 · draw 4.08 · home 4.0811/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.82 · draw 4.15 · home 3.8511/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.75 · draw 4.00 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.30 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.9211/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.39 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 2.7811/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:06:28.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:06 (Last checked 24 min ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Hamburger SVok11/10/2026, 01:39:23 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · VfB Stuttgartok11/10/2026, 01:39:22 (Last checked 18 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home25.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw22.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away51.9%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x48.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x274.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1277.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes61.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no38.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.582.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.517.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.561.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.538.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.539.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.560.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.521.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.578.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.510.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.589.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.572.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.527.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.536.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.563.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.514.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.586.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.585.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.514.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.556.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.543.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.529.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.570.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.512.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.587.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.53.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.596.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.510.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.589.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.525.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.574.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.548.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.551.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.570.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.529.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.586.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.513.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home33.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away66.8%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 551 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:06:28