Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT

Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07

Werder Bremen

49%

Draw

27%

SC Paderborn 07

24%

Got%OnIt gives Werder Bremen a 49% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Worth knowing: SC Paderborn 07 has little or no Bundesliga history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.4 goals for Werder Bremen and 0.9 for SC Paderborn 07.
Werder Bremen won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 a game.
SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the 5 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.4 a game.

What argues against it

SC Paderborn 07 has little or no Bundesliga history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Werder Bremen are 7th of 18 after 5 games; SC Paderborn 07 are 15th.
Werder Bremen have won 2 and lost 1; SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 and lost 3.

Recent matches the model used

Werder Bremen

D2–2at Borussia Dortmund9 Oct
W3–2v FC Augsburg19 Sept
D1–1at 1. FC Köln12 Sept
W3–1v RB Leipzig5 Sept
L1–4at SC Freiburg30 Aug
L0–2v Borussia Dortmund16 May

SC Paderborn 07

L0–2v VfB Stuttgart10 Oct
W3–1v 1899 Hoffenheim20 Sept
L0–3at Borussia Dortmund12 Sept
L0–1v SC Freiburg5 Sept
D0–0at FSV Mainz 0529 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT; snapshot 328, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Werder Bremen)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (SC Paderborn 07)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 08:32 PDT962 finished Bundesliga matches (962 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T13:30:00+00:00
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationWerder Bremen 2 absent regulars · SC Paderborn 07 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Werder Bremen

7.8 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A FSV Mainz 05 +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptBLH FC AugsburgW 3–2counted as workload
Fri 9 OctBLA Borussia DortmundD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctBLA FSV Mainz 05+7 d
Tue 27 OctDFBA Borussia Dortmund+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 19 in the squad); 38 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: S. Lynen (M) — reason unknown; J. Stage (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Werder Bremen: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
A. Pieper · regular	D	19	—
Arthur	D	65	—
K. Hein	G	90	0' Estonia, 13.9 d before
L. Reis	M	90	—
Y. Regeer	M	65	—
M. Friedl · regular	D	90	0' Austria, 12.9 d before
O. Deman · regular	D	90	—
E. Dinkçi	M	81	—
Chuky San José	M	81	—
N. Füllkrug	F	90	—
M. Grüll	M	118	28' Austria, 12.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 118 minutes — A. Schlager (90' Austria, 12.9 d before); M. Grüll (28' Austria, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

SC Paderborn 07

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga H Hamburger SV +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptBLH 1899 HoffenheimW 3–1counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLH VfB StuttgartL 0–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctBLH Hamburger SV+7 d
Tue 27 OctDFBH VfB Stuttgart+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 6 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.5 CONFIRMED

SC Paderborn 07: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
S. Castañeda · regular	M	90	90	—
M. Pieringer	F	70	70	—
S. Marino · regular	F	70	70	—
L. Curda · regular	M	90	90	—
M. Hansen · regular	D	85	85	—
L. Ulrich	M	80	80	—
T. Scheller · regular	D	85	85	—
R. Obermair · regular	M	90	90	—
N. Noll	G	90	90	—
J. ter Horst	D	90	90	—
G. Vidović	M	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Werder Bremen	49%	53%	54%
Draw	27%	24%	23%
SC Paderborn 07	24%	23%	24%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen moments ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 7 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 60%.

D2–2at Borussia Dortmund9 Oct · in model evidence
W3–2v FC Augsburg19 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1at 1. FC Köln12 Sept · in model evidence
W3–1v RB Leipzig5 Sept · in model evidence
L1–4at SC Freiburg30 Aug · in model evidence
L0–2v Borussia Dortmund16 May · in model evidence

SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07: 7 finished matches (5 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 0.6 and conceded 1.1 a game; scored in 29%, kept a clean sheet in 29%.
Both teams scored in 29%; over 1.5 goals in 57%, over 2.5 in 29%.

L0–2v VfB Stuttgart10 Oct · in model evidence
W3–1v 1899 Hoffenheim20 Sept · in model evidence
L0–3at Borussia Dortmund12 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1v SC Freiburg5 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0at FSV Mainz 0529 Aug · in model evidence
D1–1v VfL Wolfsburg25 May · not in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	10%
1 goal	23%
2 goals	26%
3 goals	21%
4 goals	12%
5 goals	6%
6 or more	3%
Over 1.5	68%
Over 2.5	41%
Over 3.5	21%
Both teams score	46%

Werder Bremen

Expected goals	1.42
Scores at least once	76%
Scores 2 or more	42%
Clean sheet	40%

SC Paderborn 07

Expected goals	0.92
Scores at least once	60%
Scores 2 or more	24%
Clean sheet	24%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 24 min ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season7th v 15th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Werder Bremen

7th of 18 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L1 from 5 games · scored 10, conceded 10

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 6, conceded 3) · Away W0 D2 L1 (scored 4, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games DWDWL (most recent last)

SC Paderborn 07

15th of 18 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 3, conceded 7

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 3, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L1 (scored 0, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 4 in 5 games

Last five league games LWLLD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

SC Paderborn 07 to win (90 minutes)

24%

YES on SC Paderborn 07 to WinSC Paderborn 07 wins in 90 minutes

24%25¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,446 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Werder Bremen to win (90 minutes)

49%

54%

YES on Werder Bremen to WinWerder Bremen wins in 90 minutes

49%55¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 596 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

27%

23%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

27%24¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,847 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawWerder Bremen or SC Paderborn 07 wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

73%79¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 494 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on SC Paderborn 07 to WinWerder Bremen wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

76%78¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 695 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Werder Bremen to WinSC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

51%48¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 726 contracts at the ask · quote just now

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

90%

96%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

90%97¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 395 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

10%6¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

68%

84%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

68%86¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,888 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

32%18¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 705 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

41%

63%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

41%64¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 396 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

59%38¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 212 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

21%

41%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

21%42¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,346 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

79%60¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

22%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

9%23¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 950 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

91%79¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 617 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

11%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

3%12¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,345 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

97%90¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 397 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

46%

62%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

46%63¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,721 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

54%40¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,333 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

Limited evidence

YES on SC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSC Paderborn 07 wins by 2 goals or more

8%11¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,245 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on SC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWerder Bremen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Paderborn 07 wins by 1 goal · SC Paderborn 07 not by 2+ goals

92%92¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 77 contracts at the ask · quote just now

SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on SC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSC Paderborn 07 wins by 3 goals or more

2%6¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on SC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWerder Bremen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2 goals or fewer · SC Paderborn 07 not by 3+ goals

98%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Werder Bremen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

24%

31%

Limited evidence

YES on Werder Bremen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWerder Bremen wins by 2 goals or more

24%32¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 850 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Werder Bremen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn, or Werder Bremen wins by 1 goal · Werder Bremen not by 2+ goals

76%70¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 415 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Werder Bremen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Werder Bremen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWerder Bremen wins by 3 goals or more

9%16¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 850 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Werder Bremen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn, or Werder Bremen wins by 2 goals or fewer · Werder Bremen not by 3+ goals

91%87¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 758 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 48.6% · draw 27.0% · away 24.4%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 0.92
Werder Bremen eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
SC Paderborn 07 eligible matches: 5 (5 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 962 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:306, 2026:44
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 09:30:10
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: away side has 5 eligible matches; away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Bundesliga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 9 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
thin evidence: away side has 5 eligible matches
away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Werder Bremen	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
9 Oct	Borussia Dortmund	away	2–2	1.19–2.50	D
19 Sept	FC Augsburg	home	3–2	2.78–1.12	W
12 Sept	1. FC Köln	away	1–1	1.12–1.65	D
5 Sept	RB Leipzig	home	3–1	0.95–1.50	W
30 Aug	SC Freiburg	away	1–4	0.54–2.37	L
16 May	Borussia Dortmund	home	0–2	0.49–2.74	L

SC Paderborn 07	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	VfB Stuttgart	home	0–2	1.91–2.45	L
20 Sept	1899 Hoffenheim	home	3–1	0.68–1.50	W
12 Sept	Borussia Dortmund	away	0–3	0.49–1.76	L
5 Sept	SC Freiburg	home	0–1	0.77–1.24	L
29 Aug	FSV Mainz 05	away	0–0	0.73–1.23	D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SVWPAD-BTTS	45.6%	61.5%	−15.9 pts	0.60 / 0.63	0.40	4,721 / 6,333	Comparable seen moments ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
SC Paderborn 07 to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD	24.4%	23.5%	+0.9 pts	0.22 / 0.25	0.78	3,446 / 695	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Werder Bremen to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW	48.6%	53.5%	−4.9 pts	0.52 / 0.55	0.48	596 / 726	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-TIE	27.0%	22.5%	+4.5 pts	0.21 / 0.24	0.79	1,847 / 494	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD2	8.3%	9.5%	−1.2 pts	0.08 / 0.11	0.92	1,245 / 77	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD3	2.2%	4.0%	−1.8 pts	0.02 / 0.06	0.98	25 / 25	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Werder Bremen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW2	23.8%	31.0%	−7.2 pts	0.30 / 0.32	0.70	850 / 415	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Werder Bremen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW3	9.2%	14.5%	−5.3 pts	0.13 / 0.16	0.87	850 / 758	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-1	90.4%	95.5%	−5.1 pts	0.94 / 0.97	0.06	395 / 25	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-2	67.9%	84.0%	−16.1 pts	0.82 / 0.86	0.18	1,888 / 705	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-3	41.5%	63.0%	−21.5 pts	0.62 / 0.64	0.38	396 / 212	Comparable seen moments ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-4	20.9%	41.0%	−20.1 pts	0.40 / 0.42	0.60	1,346 / 2	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-5	8.9%	22.0%	−13.1 pts	0.21 / 0.23	0.79	950 / 617	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-6	3.2%	11.0%	−7.8 pts	0.10 / 0.12	0.90	1,345 / 397	Comparable seen moments ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:05:42.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	53.0%	49.8% – 53.6%	56.2%	1.78	10	48.6%	−4.4 pts
1x2:draw	23.7%	22.8% – 25.1%	25.2%	3.98	10	27.0%	+3.2 pts
1x2:away	23.4%	22.1% – 25.2%	24.6%	4.06	10	24.4%	+1.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:17.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	61.4%	60.8% – 62.0%	66.2%	1.51	7	41.5%	−19.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	38.6%	38.0% – 39.2%	41.7%	2.40	7	58.5%	+19.9 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:17.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 4.10 · draw 4.15 · home 1.79	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Match winner	away 3.80 · draw 4.00 · home 1.80	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 4.02 · draw 4.17 · home 1.77	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBO	Match winner	away 3.52 · draw 3.53 · home 1.78	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
William Hill	Match winner	away 3.90 · draw 3.90 · home 1.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Match winner	away 4.20 · draw 3.75 · home 1.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Dafabet	Match winner	away 4.10 · draw 4.00 · home 1.80	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Match winner	away 4.21 · draw 4.26 · home 1.84	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Match winner	away 4.20 · draw 3.95 · home 1.78	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Match winner	away 3.90 · draw 3.80 · home 1.73	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.38	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.40	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.54 · under 2.5 2.50	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.50	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.38	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.50	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.51 · under 2.5 2.34	11/10/2026, 09:31:17	11/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:05:42.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:06 (Last checked 24 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Werder Bremen	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:20 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · SC Paderborn 07	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:24 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	48.6%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	27.0%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	24.4%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	75.6%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	51.4%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	73.0%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	45.6%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	54.4%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	90.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	9.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	67.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	32.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	41.5%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	58.5%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	20.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	79.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	8.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	91.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	3.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	96.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	75.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	24.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	41.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	58.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	17.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	82.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	5.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	94.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	60.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	39.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	23.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	76.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	6.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	93.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	1.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	98.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	9.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	90.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	23.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	76.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	48.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	51.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	75.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	24.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	91.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	8.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	97.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	2.2%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	66.6%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	33.4%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 328 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:05:42