Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT

SV ElversbergvFC Augsburg

SV Elversberg

51%

Draw

23%

FC Augsburg

26%

Got%OnIt gives SV Elversberg a 51% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Worth knowing: SV Elversberg has little or no Bundesliga history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.8 goals for SV Elversberg and 1.3 for FC Augsburg.
SV Elversberg won 2 of the 5 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 a game.
FC Augsburg won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

SV Elversberg has little or no Bundesliga history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

SV Elversberg are 9th of 18 after 5 games; FC Augsburg are 6th.
SV Elversberg have won 2 and lost 2; FC Augsburg have won 2 and lost 1.

Recent matches the model used

SV Elversberg

L0–1at Union Berlin10 Oct
D0–0at FC Schalke 0420 Sept
L1–2v Bayern München13 Sept
W4–3at Borussia Mönchengladbach5 Sept
W3–2v Bayer Leverkusen29 Aug

FC Augsburg

D2–2v Bayern München10 Oct
L2–3at Werder Bremen19 Sept
D2–2v Bayer Leverkusen12 Sept
W4–1at Eintracht Frankfurt6 Sept
W3–0v FC Schalke 0430 Aug
L0–4at Union Berlin16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 557, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (FC Augsburg)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (SV Elversberg)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:25 PDT963 finished Bundesliga matches (963 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationSV Elversberg 1 absent regular · FC Augsburg 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

SV Elversberg

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 2 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A RB Leipzig +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptBLA FC Schalke 04D 0–0counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLA Union BerlinL 0–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctBLA RB Leipzig+7 d
Tue 27 OctDFBH SV Darmstadt 98+10.2 d
Fri 30 OctBLH FSV Mainz 05+13.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 7 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Gyamerah (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 81.5 CONFIRMED

SV Elversberg: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
L. Sirch	D	86	86	—
Noah Darvich	M	71	71	—
M. Rohr · regular	D	90	90	—
L. Petkov	M	90	145	55' Bulgaria, 13.9 d before
N. Futkeu	F	70	70	—
F. Keidel	M	90	90	0' Germany, 12.8 d before
N. Kristof · regular	G	90	90	—
L. Pinckert	D	90	90	—
Ł. Poręba · regular	M	90	90	—
L. Günther	D	71	71	—
T. Zimmerschied	M	59	59	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 55 minutes — L. Petkov (55' Bulgaria, 13.9 d before) CONFIRMED

FC Augsburg

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga H Union Berlin +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptBLA Werder BremenL 2–3counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLH Bayern MünchenD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctBLH Union Berlin+7 d
Tue 27 OctDFBA SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 39 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Wolf (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.6 CONFIRMED

FC Augsburg: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Abdulay Bah	D	82	82	—
C. Matsima · regular	D	90	90	—
C. Brackelmann	D	90	90	—
F. Rieder · regular	M	90	183	3' Switzerland, 13.8 d before; 90' Switzerland, 10.8 d before
A. Ibrahimović	M	82	82	—
H. Massengo · regular	M	90	90	—
Hennes Behrens	M	90	90	—
R. Fellhauer · regular	M	90	90	—
Rodrigo Ribeiro	F	75	75	—
Seol Young-Woo	M	62	62	—
F. Dahmen · regular	G	90	90	0' Germany, 12.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 183 minutes — F. Rieder (3' Switzerland, 13.8 d before; 90' Switzerland, 10.8 d before); M. Gregoritsch (90' Austria, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
SV Elversberg	51%	38%	38%
Draw	23%	25%	26%
FC Augsburg	26%	36%	36%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 30 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives SV Elversberg a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (51% vs 38%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence7 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg: 7 finished matches (5 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 71%, kept a clean sheet in 14%.
Both teams scored in 71%; over 1.5 goals in 71%, over 2.5 in 71%.

L0–1at Union Berlin10 Oct · in model evidence
D0–0at FC Schalke 0420 Sept · in model evidence
L1–2v Bayern München13 Sept · in model evidence
W4–3at Borussia Mönchengladbach5 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2v Bayer Leverkusen29 Aug · in model evidence
L1–2v 1. FC Heidenheim26 May · not in model evidence

FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.2 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 90%.

D2–2v Bayern München10 Oct · in model evidence
L2–3at Werder Bremen19 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2v Bayer Leverkusen12 Sept · in model evidence
W4–1at Eintracht Frankfurt6 Sept · in model evidence
W3–0v FC Schalke 0430 Aug · in model evidence
L0–4at Union Berlin16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	4%
1 goal	14%
2 goals	22%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	17%
5 goals	11%
6 or more	10%
Over 1.5	82%
Over 2.5	60%
Over 3.5	38%
Both teams score	60%

SV Elversberg

Expected goals	1.84
Scores at least once	84%
Scores 2 or more	55%
Clean sheet	28%

FC Augsburg

Expected goals	1.26
Scores at least once	72%
Scores 2 or more	36%
Clean sheet	16%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season9th v 6th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

SV Elversberg

9th of 18 · 7 pts · W2 D1 L2 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 8

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 2 in 5 games

Last five league games LDLWW (most recent last)

FC Augsburg

6th of 18 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L1 from 5 games · scored 13, conceded 8

Home W1 D2 L0 (scored 7, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 6, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games DLDWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

FC Augsburg to win (90 minutes)

26%

36%

YES on FC Augsburg to WinFC Augsburg wins in 90 minutes

26%37¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

SV Elversberg to win (90 minutes)

51%

38%

YES on SV Elversberg to WinSV Elversberg wins in 90 minutes

51%39¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

23%

26%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

23%27¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 13,264 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawSV Elversberg or FC Augsburg wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

77%76¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 418 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on FC Augsburg to WinSV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

74%65¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,589 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on SV Elversberg to WinFC Augsburg wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

49%63¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,066 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

96%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

96%97¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 398 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

4%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 506 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

82%

87%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

82%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 868 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

18%15¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 37 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

60%

66%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

60%67¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 400 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

40%35¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 215 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

38%

45%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

38%46¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 398 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

62%56¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 215 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

20%

26%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

20%27¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,350 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

80%75¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 219 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

13%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

10%14¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,148 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

90%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 199 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

60%

67%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

60%68¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,000 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

40%34¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,193 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Winning margin

FC Augsburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

11%

18%

Limited evidence

YES on FC Augsburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFC Augsburg wins by 2 goals or more

11%19¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 88 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on FC Augsburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn, or FC Augsburg wins by 1 goal · FC Augsburg not by 2+ goals

89%83¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

FC Augsburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on FC Augsburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFC Augsburg wins by 3 goals or more

4%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 427 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on FC Augsburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn, or FC Augsburg wins by 2 goals or fewer · FC Augsburg not by 3+ goals

96%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 713 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

SV Elversberg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

29%

20%

Limited evidence

YES on SV Elversberg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSV Elversberg wins by 2 goals or more

29%21¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,338 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on SV Elversberg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFC Augsburg wins or the match is drawn, or SV Elversberg wins by 1 goal · SV Elversberg not by 2+ goals

71%82¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 653 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

SV Elversberg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

13%

Limited evidence

YES on SV Elversberg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSV Elversberg wins by 3 goals or more

13%9¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 850 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on SV Elversberg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFC Augsburg wins or the match is drawn, or SV Elversberg wins by 2 goals or fewer · SV Elversberg not by 3+ goals

87%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 825 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 50.9% · draw 22.8% · away 26.3%
Expected goals: 1.84 – 1.26
SV Elversberg eligible matches: 5 (5 with xG)
FC Augsburg eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 963 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:306, 2026:45
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: home side has 5 eligible matches; home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Bundesliga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 11 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
thin evidence: home side has 5 eligible matches
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
the model's away probability is 10% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's home probability is 13% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

SV Elversberg	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Union Berlin	away	0–1	0.28–1.59	L
20 Sept	FC Schalke 04	away	0–0	1.01–1.01	D
13 Sept	Bayern München	home	1–2	0.94–2.83	L
5 Sept	Borussia Mönchengladbach	away	4–3	2.31–2.36	W
29 Aug	Bayer Leverkusen	home	3–2	1.27–1.88	W

FC Augsburg	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Bayern München	home	2–2	2.45–5.08	D
19 Sept	Werder Bremen	away	2–3	1.12–2.78	L
12 Sept	Bayer Leverkusen	home	2–2	1.11–2.64	D
6 Sept	Eintracht Frankfurt	away	4–1	1.13–2.22	W
30 Aug	FC Schalke 04	home	3–0	3.72–2.10	W
16 May	Union Berlin	away	0–4	0.61–3.68	L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SVEFCA-BTTS	60.4%	67.0%	−6.6 pts	0.66 / 0.68	0.34	5,000 / 3,193	Comparable seen 30 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
FC Augsburg to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA	26.3%	36.0%	−9.7 pts	0.35 / 0.37	0.65	330 / 1,589	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
SV Elversberg to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE	50.9%	38.0%	+12.9 pts	0.37 / 0.39	0.63	330 / 1,066	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-TIE	22.8%	25.5%	−2.7 pts	0.24 / 0.27	0.76	13,264 / 418	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
FC Augsburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA2	10.9%	18.0%	−7.1 pts	0.17 / 0.19	0.83	88 / 25	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
FC Augsburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA3	3.6%	8.0%	−4.4 pts	0.06 / 0.10	0.94	427 / 713	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
SV Elversberg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE2	28.6%	19.5%	+9.1 pts	0.18 / 0.21	0.82	1,338 / 653	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
SV Elversberg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE3	13.1%	8.0%	+5.1 pts	0.07 / 0.09	0.93	850 / 825	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-1	95.5%	95.5%	+0.0 pts	0.94 / 0.97	0.06	398 / 506	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-2	81.6%	86.5%	−4.9 pts	0.85 / 0.88	0.15	868 / 37	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-3	60.0%	66.0%	−6.0 pts	0.65 / 0.67	0.35	400 / 215	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-4	37.7%	45.0%	−7.3 pts	0.44 / 0.46	0.56	398 / 215	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-5	20.3%	26.0%	−5.7 pts	0.25 / 0.27	0.75	1,350 / 219	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-6	9.5%	13.0%	−3.5 pts	0.12 / 0.14	0.88	1,148 / 199	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:07:16.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	38.5%	38.0% – 39.8%	41.2%	2.42	10	50.9%	+12.5 pts
1x2:draw	25.1%	23.9% – 26.0%	26.5%	3.77	10	22.8%	−2.3 pts
1x2:away	36.4%	35.1% – 37.3%	38.5%	2.60	10	26.3%	−10.2 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:18.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	65.6%	63.8% – 66.3%	69.4%	1.44	7	60.0%	−5.6 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	34.4%	33.7% – 36.2%	37.2%	2.69	7	40.0%	+5.6 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:19.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 2.64 · draw 3.82 · home 2.48	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Match winner	away 2.50 · draw 3.90 · home 2.40	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 2.66 · draw 3.67 · home 2.50	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBO	Match winner	away 2.42 · draw 3.48 · home 2.33	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
William Hill	Match winner	away 2.60 · draw 3.60 · home 2.40	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Match winner	away 2.55 · draw 3.75 · home 2.45	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Dafabet	Match winner	away 2.60 · draw 3.85 · home 2.49	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Match winner	away 2.71 · draw 3.92 · home 2.55	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Match winner	away 2.72 · draw 3.80 · home 2.40	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Match winner	away 2.45 · draw 3.70 · home 2.38	11/10/2026, 09:31:18	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.68	11/10/2026, 09:31:19	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:19	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.47 · under 2.5 2.69	11/10/2026, 09:31:19	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:19	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.68	11/10/2026, 09:31:19	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.47 · under 2.5 2.77	11/10/2026, 09:31:19	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.54	11/10/2026, 09:31:19	11/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:07:16.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:07 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · SV Elversberg	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:25 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · FC Augsburg	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:22 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	50.9%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	22.8%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	26.3%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	73.7%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	49.1%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	77.2%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	60.4%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	39.6%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	95.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	4.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	81.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	18.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	60.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	40.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	37.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	62.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	20.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	79.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	9.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	90.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	84.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	15.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	55.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	45.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	28.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	71.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	11.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	88.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	71.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	28.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	36.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	63.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	13.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	86.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	4.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	96.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	13.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	86.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	28.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	71.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	50.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	49.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	73.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	26.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	89.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	10.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	96.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	3.6%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	66.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	34.0%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 557 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:07:16