Arsenalv
Lille
Got%OnIt gives Arsenal a 76% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 4.
Worth knowing: Lille has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Recent developments
Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.
Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.
Why
What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.
Used by the model
- The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
- On these inputs the model expects about 2.4 goals for Arsenal and 0.6 for Lille.
- Arsenal won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.2 a game.
- Lille won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.8 a game.
What argues against it
- Lille has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
- Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
- The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.
Not used by the model · context
- Arsenal are 15th of 36 after 1 games; Lille are 22nd.
- Arsenal have won 1 and lost 0; Lille have won 0 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used
Arsenal
- W1–0at Napoli9 Sept
- W1–0v Atletico Madrid5 May
- D1–1at Atletico Madrid29 Apr
- D0–0v Sporting CP15 Apr
- W1–0at Sporting CP7 Apr
- W2–0v Bayer Leverkusen17 Mar
Lille
- L2–3v Real Betis8 Sept
- L1–2v Borussia Dortmund12 Mar
- D1–1at Borussia Dortmund4 Mar
- W6–1v Feyenoord29 Jan
- L1–2at Liverpool21 Jan
- W3–2v Sturm Graz11 Dec
It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.
What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT
The frozen prediction was made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT (evidence cutoff Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT; snapshot 176, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.
- Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelWed 7 Oct, 19:23 PDT518 finished UEFA Champions League matches (498 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-09-10T19:00:00+00:00
- Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Arsenal)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lille)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionfixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
- Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
- Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationArsenal 3.3 d rest (short) · Lille 3.2 d rest (short)
Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.
Used in the model
- finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
- the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED
The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.
Context not yet proven to improve predictions
Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.
Arsenal
3.3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED
Next: Premier League A Nottingham Forest +4.9 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Tue 15 SeptEFLA IpswichW 4–2counted as workload
- Sat 19 SeptPLA BrightonL 0–3counted as workload
- Sat 10 OctPLH LeedsW 2–1counted as workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sun 18 OctPLA Nottingham Forest+4.9 d
- Wed 21 OctUCLA Bayern München+8 d
- Sat 24 OctPLH Everton+10.8 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 69 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: C. Tzolis (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 81.9 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. White · regular | D | 63 | 63 | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 90 | 180 | 90' England, 10.1 d before |
| D. Rice · regular | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| M. Ødegaard · regular | M | 90 | 270 | 90' Norway, 12 d before; 90' Norway, 9 d before |
| David Raya · regular | G | 90 | 180 | 90' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before |
| Gabriel Magalhães · regular | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly · regular | M | 63 | 164 | 11' England, 10.1 d before; 90' England, 7 d before |
| B. Saka · regular | M | 90 | 180 | 90' England, 10.1 d before; 0' England, 7 d before |
| N. Madueke | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| K. Havertz · regular | F | 63 | 63 | — |
| R. Calafiori · regular | D | 82 | 206 | 90' Italy, 11 d before; 34' Italy, 8 d before |
International duty in 14 days: 11 players, 1143 minutes — J. Timber (78' Netherlands, 12 d before; 0' Netherlands, 9 d before); E. Konsa (90' England, 10.1 d before); M. Ødegaard (90' Norway, 12 d before; 90' Norway, 9 d before); Martín Zubimendi (13' Spain, 10 d before; 19' Spain, 7 d before); Mikel Merino (23' Spain, 10 d before; 45' Spain, 7 d before); E. Eze (20' England, 10.1 d before; 90' England, 7 d before); David Raya (90' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before); M. Lewis-Skelly (11' England, 10.1 d before; 90' England, 7 d before); B. Saka (90' England, 10.1 d before; 0' England, 7 d before); V. Gyökeres (90' Sweden, 11 d before; 90' Sweden, 8 d before); R. Calafiori (90' Italy, 11 d before; 34' Italy, 8 d before) CONFIRMED
Lille
3.2 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED
Next: Ligue 1 H Stade Brestois 29 +4 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Sun 20 SeptL1A NiceL 1–2counted as workload
- Sat 10 OctL1H Le HavreW 1–0counted as workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sat 17 OctL1H Stade Brestois 29+4 d
- Wed 21 OctUCLH Galatasaray+7.9 d
- Sun 25 OctL1A Monaco+11.8 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: N. Ngoy (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 74.7 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexsandro Ribeiro · regular | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| M. Kjærgaard | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| O. Giroud | F | 57 | 57 | — |
| N. Bentaleb · regular | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| B. Özer · regular | G | 90 | 90 | — |
| Tiago Santos · regular | D | 22 | 22 | — |
| R. Perraud · regular | D | 73 | 73 | — |
| D. Bakwa | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| N. Mukau · regular | M | 73 | 73 | — |
| G. Perrin | M | 57 | 57 | — |
| T. Nianzou | D | 90 | 90 | — |
International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 172 minutes — H. Haraldsson (82' Iceland, 10.1 d before; 90' Iceland, 7 d before) CONFIRMED
Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED
Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.
Arsenal
- C. Tzolis · injury / absence: Hamstring Injury · Missing Fixture
- W. Saliba · injury / absence: Back Injury · Missing Fixture
Lille
- E. Mbappe · suspension: Red Card · Missing Fixture
- H. Igamane · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
- T. Santos · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
Starting line-ups UNKNOWN
Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.
Unknown or unavailable
- Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
- International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
- A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
- The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
- Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
- Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN
Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.
Pregame comparison
What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.
| Outcome | Got%OnIt | Books | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 76% | 77% | 80% |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 14% |
| Lille | 8% | 8% | 8% |
Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.
Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate
Observed — results as they happened
Arsenal
- Arsenal: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 1.4 and conceded 0.6 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
- Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 20%.
- W1–0at Napoli9 Sept · in model evidence
- D1–1at Paris Saint Germain30 May · not in model evidence
- W1–0v Atletico Madrid5 May · in model evidence
- D1–1at Atletico Madrid29 Apr · in model evidence
- D0–0v Sporting CP15 Apr · in model evidence
- W1–0at Sporting CP7 Apr · in model evidence
Lille
- Lille: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 2.1 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
- Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
- L2–3v Real Betis8 Sept · in model evidence
- L1–2v Borussia Dortmund12 Mar · in model evidence
- D1–1at Borussia Dortmund4 Mar · in model evidence
- W6–1v Feyenoord29 Jan · in model evidence
- L1–2at Liverpool21 Jan · in model evidence
- W3–2v Sturm Graz11 Dec · in model evidence
observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from
Model estimate — frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT
Total goals
| 0 goals | 5% |
| 1 goal | 15% |
| 2 goals | 23% |
| 3 goals | 22% |
| 4 goals | 17% |
| 5 goals | 10% |
| 6 or more | 8% |
| Over 1.5 | — |
| Over 2.5 | — |
| Over 3.5 | — |
| Both teams score | — |
Arsenal
| Expected goals | 2.36 |
| Scores at least once | — |
| Scores 2 or more | — |
| Clean sheet | 54% |
Lille
| Expected goals | 0.62 |
| Scores at least once | — |
| Scores 2 or more | — |
| Clean sheet | 9% |
model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since
Player availability5 reported
Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.
5 players reported as out or doubtful.
Last checked 24 min ago.
Arsenal
- C. TzolisOutHamstring Injury
- W. SalibaOutBack Injury
Lille
- E. MbappeOutRed Card
- H. IgamaneOutKnee Injury
- T. SantosDoubtfulInjury
A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.
Starting lineupsnot received
Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.
This season15th v 22nd
This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.
Arsenal
15th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 0
Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W1 D0 L0 (scored 1, conceded 0)
Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 1 games
Last five league games W (most recent last)
Lille
22nd of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 2, conceded 3
Home W0 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)
Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games
Last five league games L (most recent last)
Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.
All markets20 Kalshi contracts
Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.
Arsenal to win (90 minutes)76%80%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Lille to win (90 minutes)8%8%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Draw (90 minutes)16%14%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)—96%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—83%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—61%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)—38%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)—20%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)—9%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Both teams to score (90 minutes)—43%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—56%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Arsenal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—34%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—2%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)——Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition · No Kalshi quote
Arsenal over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)—92%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Arsenal over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—72%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Arsenal over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—46%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Lille over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)—47%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Lille over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—14%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Lille over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)——Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition · No Kalshi quote
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence
Model snapshot
- Probabilities
- home 76.2% · draw 15.8% · away 8.0%
- Expected goals
- 2.36 – 0.62
- Arsenal eligible matches
- 39 (37 with xG)
- Lille eligible matches
- 11 (11 with xG)
- Competition matches in the evidence set
- 518 by season 2023:124, 2024:188, 2025:188, 2026:18
- xG weight
- 0.5
- Cutoff
- 07/10/2026, 19:52:04
- Maturity
- historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
- Flags
- away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
- draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
- xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
- Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
- evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (UEFA Champions League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
- historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
- Champions League snapshots carry 1X2 only: Phase 8A found over/under 2.5 NOT SUPPORTED and BTTS only encouraging on this competition (decision A applies to 1X2); results are the 90-minute score, extra time and shoot-outs never settle a market
- away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
- xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
- draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
- UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only
Matches the model used (most recent first)
the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.
| Arsenal | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sept | Napoli | away | 1–0 | — | W |
| 5 May | Atletico Madrid | home | 1–0 | 1.56–0.99 | W |
| 29 Apr | Atletico Madrid | away | 1–1 | 1.51–2.21 | D |
| 15 Apr | Sporting CP | home | 0–0 | 0.64–0.29 | D |
| 7 Apr | Sporting CP | away | 1–0 | 1.33–0.71 | W |
| 17 Mar | Bayer Leverkusen | home | 2–0 | 1.70–0.52 | W |
| Lille | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sept | Real Betis | home | 2–3 | 0.83–1.80 | L |
| 12 Mar | Borussia Dortmund | home | 1–2 | 1.48–3.05 | L |
| 4 Mar | Borussia Dortmund | away | 1–1 | 0.83–0.26 | D |
| 29 Jan | Feyenoord | home | 6–1 | 1.17–0.72 | W |
| 21 Jan | Liverpool | away | 1–2 | 0.49–2.46 | L |
| 11 Dec | Sturm Graz | home | 3–2 | 2.05–1.23 | W |
Kalshi contracts and the model
20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).
| Both teams to score | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13ARSLIL-BTTS | — | 43.0% | — | 0.42 / 0.44 | 0.58 | 4,319 / 6,390 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Match winner | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS | 76.2% | 79.5% | −3.3 pts | 0.79 / 0.80 | 0.21 | 122,051 / 6,779 | Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Lille to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL | 8.0% | 7.5% | +0.5 pts | 0.07 / 0.08 | 0.93 | 249,620 / 1 | Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Draw | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-TIE | 15.8% | 13.5% | +2.3 pts | 0.13 / 0.14 | 0.87 | 84,214 / 19,607 | Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Winning margin | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS2 | — | 55.5% | — | 0.55 / 0.56 | 0.45 | 2,006 / 9,295 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Arsenal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS3 | — | 33.5% | — | 0.33 / 0.34 | 0.67 | 5,497 / 363 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL2 | — | 1.5% | — | 0.01 / 0.02 | 0.99 | 3,523 / 4,404 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL3 | — | — | — | — / 0.02 | — | 3,709 / 0 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Team goals | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS1 | — | 92.0% | — | 0.91 / 0.93 | 0.09 | 5 / 25 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Arsenal over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS2 | — | 72.0% | — | 0.71 / 0.73 | 0.29 | 555 / 125 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Arsenal over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS3 | — | 45.5% | — | 0.44 / 0.47 | 0.56 | 8,750 / 1 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Lille over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL1 | — | 46.5% | — | 0.45 / 0.48 | 0.55 | 0 / 175 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Lille over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL2 | — | 13.5% | — | 0.12 / 0.15 | 0.88 | 252 / 159 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Lille over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL3 | — | — | — | — / 0.05 | — | 199 / 0 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Total goals | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-1 | — | 96.0% | — | 0.95 / 0.97 | 0.05 | 7,257 / 6,184 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-2 | — | 82.5% | — | 0.82 / 0.83 | 0.18 | 620 / 3,216 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-3 | — | 60.5% | — | 0.60 / 0.61 | 0.40 | 2,011 / 9,951 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-4 | — | 37.5% | — | 0.37 / 0.38 | 0.63 | 1,612 / 6,191 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-5 | — | 20.0% | — | 0.19 / 0.21 | 0.81 | 1,171 / 3,004 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-6 | — | 9.0% | — | 0.08 / 0.10 | 0.92 | 1,210 / 14,710 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
Bookmaker consensus
median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:05:25.
| Match result | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | 76.6% | 73.2% – 78.0% | 80.3% | 1.25 | 10 | 76.2% | −0.4 pts |
| 1x2:draw | 15.8% | 14.6% – 16.9% | 16.7% | 6.00 | 10 | 15.8% | −0.1 pts |
| 1x2:away | 7.9% | 7.1% – 10.1% | 8.3% | 12.00 | 10 | 8.0% | +0.1 pts |
10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:50.
| Total goals, 2.5 line | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| total_goals:over:2.5 | 60.0% | 58.9% – 60.9% | 63.7% | 1.57 | 7 | — | — |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | 40.0% | 39.1% – 41.1% | 42.0% | 2.38 | 7 | — | — |
7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:51. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only
Every bookmaker page used (17)
| Bookmaker | Market | Odds | Observed | Provider stamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | Match winner | away 13.25 · draw 5.75 · home 1.26 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betfair | Match winner | away 13.00 · draw 6.50 · home 1.22 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Pinnacle | Match winner | away 11.84 · draw 6.50 · home 1.24 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| SBO | Match winner | away 8.87 · draw 5.32 · home 1.22 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| William Hill | Match winner | away 11.00 · draw 5.50 · home 1.25 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Bet365 | Match winner | away 12.00 · draw 6.00 · home 1.22 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Dafabet | Match winner | away 12.00 · draw 6.40 · home 1.25 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| 1xBet | Match winner | away 13.90 · draw 6.03 · home 1.29 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betano | Match winner | away 11.00 · draw 5.90 · home 1.26 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| BetVictor | Match winner | away 12.00 · draw 6.00 · home 1.22 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Marathonbet | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.56 · under 2.5 2.24 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betfair | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.38 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Pinnacle | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.40 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Bet365 | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.38 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| 1xBet | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.40 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betano | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.40 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| BetVictor | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.55 · under 2.5 2.25 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
Sports evidence trail
availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:05:25.
| Dataset | State | Observed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Injuries | ok | 11/10/2026, 19:41:53 (Last checked 24 min ago) | fresh |
| Lineups | not_observed | — | before the window |
| Standings | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026 |
| Season statistics · Arsenal | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:26 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh |
| Season statistics · Lille | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:27 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh |
Every stored market probability of the snapshot
Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.
| Key | Probability | Support | Historical evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | 76.2% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:draw | 15.8% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:away | 8.0% | supported | primary_target |
Snapshot 176 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:05:25