UEFA Champions League·Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Aston VillavFenerbahçe

Aston Villa

66%

Draw

19%

Fenerbahçe

15%

Got%OnIt gives Aston Villa a 66% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 3.

Worth knowing: Aston Villa has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 2.2 goals for Aston Villa and 0.9 for Fenerbahçe.
Aston Villa won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.7 a game.
Fenerbahçe won 0 of the 1 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

Aston Villa has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Fenerbahçe has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Aston Villa are 9th of 36 after 1 games; Fenerbahçe are 20th.
Aston Villa have won 1 and lost 0; Fenerbahçe have won 0 and lost 0.

Recent matches the model used

Aston Villa

W3–2at Club Brugge KV8 Sept
W3–2v Paris Saint Germain15 Apr
L1–3at Paris Saint Germain9 Apr
W3–0v Club Brugge KV12 Mar
W3–1at Club Brugge KV4 Mar
W4–2v Celtic29 Jan

Fenerbahçe

D1–1v AS Roma10 Sept

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT (evidence cutoff Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT; snapshot 196, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelWed 7 Oct, 19:23 PDT518 finished UEFA Champions League matches (498 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-09-10T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Aston Villa)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Fenerbahçe)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionfixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-14T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationAston Villa 2 absent regulars · Fenerbahçe 3 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Aston Villa

4.2 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Newcastle +2.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Wed 16 SeptEFLA CoventryW 3–1counted as workload
Sat 19 SeptPLA TottenhamW 3–2counted as workload
Sat 10 OctPLH BrentfordD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 17 OctPLA Newcastle+2.9 d
Wed 21 OctUCLH Viking+7 d
Sat 24 OctPLH Manchester City+9.7 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: I. Maatsen (D) — reason unknown; G. Hemmings (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.8 CONFIRMED

Aston Villa: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
E. Buendía · regular	M	64	64	—
M. Ruggeri	D	45	101	0' Italy, 12 d before; 56' Italy, 9 d before
T. Mings	D	90	90	—
B. Kamara · regular	M	90	90	—
Z. Suzuki	G	90	90	—
M. Cash	D	90	216	63' Poland, 12 d before; 63' Poland, 9 d before
João Gomes	M	86	86	—
J. McGinn · regular	M	90	267	90' Scotland, 11 d before; 87' Scotland, 8 d before
J. Manzambi	M	86	221	90' Switzerland, 11 d before; 45' Switzerland, 8 d before
N. Jackson	F	90	90	—
V. Lindelöf · regular	D	90	270	90' Sweden, 12 d before; 90' Sweden, 9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 674 minutes — M. Ruggeri (0' Italy, 12 d before; 56' Italy, 9 d before); M. Cash (63' Poland, 12 d before; 63' Poland, 9 d before); J. McGinn (90' Scotland, 11 d before; 87' Scotland, 8 d before); J. Manzambi (90' Switzerland, 11 d before; 45' Switzerland, 8 d before); V. Lindelöf (90' Sweden, 12 d before; 90' Sweden, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Fenerbahçe

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Slavia Praha +5.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

Tue 20 OctUCLH Slavia Praha+5.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Thu 10 Sept (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 17 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Talisca (M) — reason unknown; M. Guendouzi (M) — reason unknown; J. Oosterwolde (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Fenerbahçe: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
A. Brown	D	0	—
V. Muriqi	F	67	67' Kosovo, 10.1 d before
N. Aké · regular	D	0	0' Netherlands, 13 d before; 0' Netherlands, 10 d before
M. Müldür	D	0	—
N. Kanté · regular	M	0	—
B. Elmaz	M	93	73' Türkiye, 12 d before; 20' Türkiye, 9 d before
K. Aktürkoğlu · regular	F	78	67' Türkiye, 12 d before; 11' Türkiye, 9 d before
İ. Yüksek	M	164	85' Türkiye, 12 d before; 79' Türkiye, 9 d before
M. Greenwood	F	0	—
Ederson	G	0	—
M. Škriniar · regular	D	180	90' Slovakia, 12 d before; 90' Slovakia, 8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 8 players, 819 minutes — V. Muriqi (67' Kosovo, 10.1 d before); R. Lukaku (29' Belgium, 12 d before; 70' Belgium, 9 d before); B. Elmaz (73' Türkiye, 12 d before; 20' Türkiye, 9 d before); O. Aydın (66' Türkiye, 12 d before; 2' Türkiye, 9 d before); K. Aktürkoğlu (67' Türkiye, 12 d before; 11' Türkiye, 9 d before); İ. Kahveci (0' Türkiye, 12 d before; 70' Türkiye, 9 d before); İ. Yüksek (85' Türkiye, 12 d before; 79' Türkiye, 9 d before); M. Škriniar (90' Slovakia, 12 d before; 90' Slovakia, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Aston Villa

A. Onana · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
I. Maatsen · injury / absence: Ankle Injury · Missing Fixture
L. Goretzka · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Questionable
M. Cisse · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
M. Ruggeri · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
T. Harwood-Bellis · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture

Fenerbahçe

A. Diouf · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
A. Fall · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
J. Oosterwolde · injury / absence: Achilles Tendon Injury · Missing Fixture
M. Guendouzi · suspension: Red Card · Missing Fixture
M. Muldur · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
M. Yandas · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Aston Villa	66%	57%	59%
Draw	19%	24%	23%
Fenerbahçe	15%	20%	19%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 3 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen moments ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Aston Villa a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (66% vs 57%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Aston Villa

Aston Villa: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.0 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 70%.

W3–2at Club Brugge KV8 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2v Paris Saint Germain15 Apr · in model evidence
L1–3at Paris Saint Germain9 Apr · in model evidence
W3–0v Club Brugge KV12 Mar · in model evidence
W3–1at Club Brugge KV4 Mar · in model evidence
W4–2v Celtic29 Jan · in model evidence

Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe: 10 finished matches (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.4 and conceded 0.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 20%.

D1–1v AS Roma10 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1at Lyon26 Aug · not in model evidence
D1–1v Lyon18 Aug · not in model evidence
W1–0at Sturm Graz11 Aug · not in model evidence
W2–0v Sturm Graz5 Aug · not in model evidence
D1–1at Gornik Zabrze29 Jul · not in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	5%
1 goal	14%
2 goals	22%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	17%
5 goals	11%
6 or more	9%
Over 1.5	—
Over 2.5	—
Over 3.5	—
Both teams score	—

Aston Villa

Expected goals	2.16
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	40%

Fenerbahçe

Expected goals	0.92
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	12%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability12 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

12 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 23 min ago.

Aston Villa

A. OnanaOutKnee Injury
I. MaatsenOutAnkle Injury
L. GoretzkaDoubtfulKnee Injury
M. CisseOutOff the roster
M. RuggeriDoubtfulInjury
T. Harwood-BellisOutOff the roster

Fenerbahçe

A. DioufOutOff the roster
A. FallOutOff the roster
J. OosterwoldeOutAchilles Tendon Injury
M. GuendouziOutRed Card
M. MuldurOutKnee Injury
M. YandasOutOff the roster

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season9th v 20th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Aston Villa

9th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 3, conceded 2

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W1 D0 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Fenerbahçe

20th of 36 · 1 pts · W0 D1 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 1

Home W0 D1 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 0 in 7 games

Last five league games D (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Aston Villa to win (90 minutes)

66%

59%

YES on Aston Villa to WinAston Villa wins in 90 minutes

66%60¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 40,324 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Fenerbahçe to win (90 minutes)

15%

19%

YES on Fenerbahçe to WinFenerbahçe wins in 90 minutes

15%19¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,226 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

19%

23%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

19%24¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 48,978 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawAston Villa or Fenerbahçe wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

81%78¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,327 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Fenerbahçe to WinAston Villa wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

85%82¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 12,294 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Aston Villa to WinFenerbahçe wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

34%42¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 12,689 contracts at the ask · quote just now

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

95%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

—95¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

—6¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,024 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

81%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

—82¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,704 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

—20¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,441 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

59%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

—60¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,257 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

—42¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,019 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

36%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

—36¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

—65¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,618 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

19%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

—20¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,536 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

—83¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,535 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

—10¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,938 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

—93¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,509 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

—

57%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

—58¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,556 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

—44¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,082 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Winning margin

Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

34%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAston Villa wins by 2 goals or more

—35¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 363 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFenerbahçe wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 1 goal · Aston Villa not by 2+ goals

—67¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 7,843 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

17%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAston Villa wins by 3 goals or more

—18¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,212 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFenerbahçe wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 2 goals or fewer · Aston Villa not by 3+ goals

—85¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,594 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Fenerbahçe to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Fenerbahçe to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFenerbahçe wins by 2 goals or more

—8¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,259 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Fenerbahçe to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Fenerbahçe wins by 1 goal · Fenerbahçe not by 2+ goals

—95¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 17,348 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Fenerbahçe to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Fenerbahçe to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFenerbahçe wins by 3 goals or more

—3¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,626 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Fenerbahçe to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Fenerbahçe wins by 2 goals or fewer · Fenerbahçe not by 3+ goals

—99¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 300 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 65.8% · draw 19.4% · away 14.8%
Expected goals: 2.16 – 0.92
Aston Villa eligible matches: 13 (13 with xG)
Fenerbahçe eligible matches: 1 (0 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 518 by season 2023:124, 2024:188, 2025:188, 2026:18
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 07/10/2026, 19:52:04
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: away side has 1 eligible match; home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (UEFA Champions League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
Champions League snapshots carry 1X2 only: Phase 8A found over/under 2.5 NOT SUPPORTED and BTTS only encouraging on this competition (decision A applies to 1X2); results are the 90-minute score, extra time and shoot-outs never settle a market
thin evidence: away side has 1 eligible match
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's home probability is 7% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Aston Villa	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
8 Sept	Club Brugge KV	away	3–2	3.22–1.53	W
15 Apr	Paris Saint Germain	home	3–2	2.05–1.69	W
9 Apr	Paris Saint Germain	away	1–3	0.74–1.94	L
12 Mar	Club Brugge KV	home	3–0	2.45–0.12	W
4 Mar	Club Brugge KV	away	3–1	1.27–1.05	W
29 Jan	Celtic	home	4–2	3.79–0.82	W

Fenerbahçe	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Sept	AS Roma	home	1–1	—	D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXUCLBTTS-26OCT14AVLFEN-BTTS	—	57.0%	—	0.56 / 0.58	0.44	4,556 / 1,082	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Aston Villa to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-AVL	65.8%	59.0%	+6.8 pts	0.58 / 0.60	0.42	40,324 / 12,689	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Fenerbahçe to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-FEN	14.8%	18.5%	−3.7 pts	0.18 / 0.19	0.82	1,226 / 12,294	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-TIE	19.4%	23.0%	−3.6 pts	0.22 / 0.24	0.78	48,978 / 3,327	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14AVLFEN-AVL2	—	34.0%	—	0.33 / 0.35	0.67	363 / 7,843	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14AVLFEN-AVL3	—	16.5%	—	0.15 / 0.18	0.85	2,212 / 10,594	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Fenerbahçe to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14AVLFEN-FEN2	—	6.5%	—	0.05 / 0.08	0.95	1,259 / 17,348	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Fenerbahçe to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14AVLFEN-FEN3	—	2.0%	—	0.01 / 0.03	0.99	1,626 / 300	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-1	—	94.5%	—	0.94 / 0.95	0.06	2 / 3,024	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-2	—	81.0%	—	0.80 / 0.82	0.20	1,704 / 1,441	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-3	—	59.0%	—	0.58 / 0.60	0.42	4,257 / 1,019	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-4	—	35.5%	—	0.35 / 0.36	0.65	0 / 1,618	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-5	—	18.5%	—	0.17 / 0.20	0.83	1,536 / 2,535	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-6	—	8.5%	—	0.07 / 0.10	0.93	2,938 / 1,509	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:05:15.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	56.6%	55.5% – 57.3%	59.7%	1.68	10	65.8%	+9.3 pts
1x2:draw	24.1%	23.1% – 24.8%	25.3%	3.95	10	19.4%	−4.7 pts
1x2:away	19.6%	18.8% – 20.5%	20.4%	4.90	10	14.8%	−4.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:59.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	57.0%	56.6% – 58.7%	59.9%	1.67	7	—	—
total_goals:under:2.5	43.0%	41.3% – 43.4%	44.8%	2.23	7	—	—

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:59. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 5.05 · draw 3.95 · home 1.69	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Betfair	Match winner	away 5.00 · draw 3.90 · home 1.65	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 4.90 · draw 4.17 · home 1.68	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
SBO	Match winner	away 4.32 · draw 3.70 · home 1.60	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
William Hill	Match winner	away 4.60 · draw 3.80 · home 1.67	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365	Match winner	away 5.00 · draw 3.80 · home 1.67	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Dafabet	Match winner	away 4.90 · draw 4.00 · home 1.70	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBet	Match winner	away 5.18 · draw 4.06 · home 1.74	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Betano	Match winner	away 4.75 · draw 3.95 · home 1.70	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictor	Match winner	away 4.75 · draw 4.00 · home 1.65	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.69 · under 2.5 2.20	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.20	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.69 · under 2.5 2.23	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.30	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.74 · under 2.5 2.27	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.27	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.61 · under 2.5 2.13	11/10/2026, 09:30:59	10/10/2026, 19:15:05

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:05:15.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	ok	11/10/2026, 19:41:59 (Last checked 23 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Aston Villa	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:26 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Fenerbahçe	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:39 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	65.8%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	19.4%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	14.8%	supported	primary_target

Snapshot 196 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:05:15