Atletico Madridv
Manchester United
Got%OnIt gives Atletico Madrid a 52% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.
Worth knowing: Manchester United has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Recent developments
Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.
Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.
Why
What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.
Used by the model
- The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
- On these inputs the model expects about 2.1 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.4 for Manchester United.
- Atletico Madrid won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 a game.
- Manchester United won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.8 a game.
What argues against it
- Manchester United has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
- Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
- The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.
Not used by the model · context
- Atletico Madrid are 26th of 36 after 1 games; Manchester United are 4th.
- Atletico Madrid have won 0 and lost 1; Manchester United have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used
Atletico Madrid
- L1–2at Liverpool9 Sept
- L0–1at Arsenal5 May
- D1–1v Arsenal29 Apr
- L1–2v Barcelona14 Apr
- W2–0at Barcelona8 Apr
- L2–3at Tottenham18 Mar
Manchester United
- W4–0v Sabah FA10 Sept
- L0–1v Bayern München12 Dec
- D3–3at Galatasaray29 Nov
- L3–4at FC Copenhagen8 Nov
- W1–0v FC Copenhagen24 Oct
- L2–3v Galatasaray3 Oct
It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.
What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT
The frozen prediction was made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT (evidence cutoff Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT; snapshot 178, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.
- Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelWed 7 Oct, 19:23 PDT518 finished UEFA Champions League matches (498 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-09-10T19:00:00+00:00
- Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Manchester United)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Atletico Madrid)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionfixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
- Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
- Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationAtletico Madrid 3.2 d rest (short) · Manchester United 3.1 d rest (short)
Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.
Used in the model
- finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
- the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED
The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.
Context not yet proven to improve predictions
Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.
Atletico Madrid
3.2 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 4 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED
Next: La Liga A Espanyol +3.7 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Sun 13 SeptLLA Real SociedadW 3–0counted as workload
- Wed 16 SeptLLH OsasunaW 4–0counted as workload
- Sun 20 SeptLLH Real MadridW 2–1counted as workload
- Sat 10 OctLLA AlavesW 2–1counted as workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sat 17 OctLLA Espanyol+3.7 d
- Tue 20 OctUCLA VfB Stuttgart+7 d
- Sat 24 OctLLH Deportivo La Coruna+11 d
Players
Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 67 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 74.7 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Le Normand | D | 62 | 152 | 90' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before |
| J. Cardoso | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| G. Simeone · regular | M | 73 | 73 | — |
| Koke · regular | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| Álex Grimaldo · regular | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| C. Romero | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| Marcos Llorente · regular | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| J. Oblak · regular | G | 90 | 270 | 90' Slovenia, 10 d before; 90' Slovenia, 7 d before |
| J. David | F | 45 | 45 | — |
| A. Lookman · regular | M | 45 | 45 | — |
| Pablo Barrios | M | 57 | 57 | — |
International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 714 minutes — Robin Le Normand (90' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before); Marc Pubill (0' Spain, 10 d before; 90' Spain, 7 d before); J. Oblak (90' Slovenia, 10 d before; 90' Slovenia, 7 d before); Álex Baena (46' Spain, 10 d before; 45' Spain, 7 d before); D. Hancko (8' Slovakia, 11 d before; 90' Slovakia, 7 d before); M. Hjulmand (75' Denmark, 12 d before; 90' Denmark, 9 d before) CONFIRMED
Manchester United
3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED
Next: Premier League A Leeds +4.8 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Wed 16 SeptEFLH BrightonL 2–3counted as workload
- Sun 20 SeptPLA FulhamD 1–1counted as workload
- Sat 10 OctPLH TottenhamD 1–1counted as workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sun 18 OctPLA Leeds+4.8 d
- Wed 21 OctUCLA Como+7.9 d
- Sun 25 OctPLH Bournemouth+11.8 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 81.5 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes · regular | M | 90 | 270 | 90' Portugal, 12 d before; 90' Portugal, 9 d before |
| A. Diallo | M | 59 | 59 | — |
| K. Mainoo · regular | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| L. Yoro | D | 59 | 149 | 0' France, 11 d before; 90' France, 8 d before |
| B. Mbeumo · regular | F | 90 | 90 | — |
| Matheus Cunha · regular | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| Y. Tielemans · regular | M | 59 | 149 | 90' Belgium, 11 d before |
| L. Shaw · regular | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| Lisandro Martínez · regular | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| H. Maguire · regular | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| S. Lammens · regular | G | 90 | 180 | 90' Belgium, 11 d before; 0' Belgium, 8 d before |
International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 568 minutes — Bruno Fernandes (90' Portugal, 12 d before; 90' Portugal, 9 d before); L. Yoro (0' France, 11 d before; 90' France, 8 d before); J. Zirkzee (20' Netherlands, 12 d before; 44' Netherlands, 9 d before); Diogo Dalot (27' Portugal, 12 d before; 27' Portugal, 9 d before); Y. Tielemans (90' Belgium, 11 d before); S. Lammens (90' Belgium, 11 d before; 0' Belgium, 8 d before) CONFIRMED
Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED
Provider report observed 1 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.
Atletico Madrid
- O. Vargas · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture
- R. Mendoza · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture
Manchester United
- B. Sesko · injury / absence: Leg Injury · Missing Fixture
- M. de Ligt · injury / absence: Back Injury · Missing Fixture
- M. Ugarte · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
- N. Mazraoui · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
- P. Dorgu · injury / absence: Hamstring Injury · Missing Fixture
- T. Heaton · injury / absence: Abdominal strain · Missing Fixture
Starting line-ups UNKNOWN
Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.
Unknown or unavailable
- Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
- International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
- A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
- The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
- Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
- Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN
Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.
Pregame comparison
What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.
| Outcome | Got%OnIt | Books | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 52% | 48% | 51% |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 25% |
| Manchester United | 27% | 27% | 26% |
Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.
Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate
Observed — results as they happened
Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 2.0 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
- Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
- L1–2at Liverpool9 Sept · in model evidence
- L0–1at Arsenal5 May · in model evidence
- D1–1v Arsenal29 Apr · in model evidence
- L1–2v Barcelona14 Apr · in model evidence
- W2–0at Barcelona8 Apr · in model evidence
- L2–3at Tottenham18 Mar · in model evidence
Manchester United
- Manchester United: 10 finished matches (7 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
- Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.
- W4–0v Sabah FA10 Sept · in model evidence
- L0–1v Bayern München12 Dec · in model evidence
- D3–3at Galatasaray29 Nov · in model evidence
- L3–4at FC Copenhagen8 Nov · in model evidence
- W1–0v FC Copenhagen24 Oct · in model evidence
- L2–3v Galatasaray3 Oct · in model evidence
observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from
Model estimate — frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT
Total goals
| 0 goals | 3% |
| 1 goal | 11% |
| 2 goals | 18% |
| 3 goals | 22% |
| 4 goals | 19% |
| 5 goals | 13% |
| 6 or more | 14% |
| Over 1.5 | — |
| Over 2.5 | — |
| Over 3.5 | — |
| Both teams score | — |
Atletico Madrid
| Expected goals | 2.06 |
| Scores at least once | — |
| Scores 2 or more | — |
| Clean sheet | 24% |
Manchester United
| Expected goals | 1.45 |
| Scores at least once | — |
| Scores 2 or more | — |
| Clean sheet | 13% |
model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since
Player availability8 reported
Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.
8 players reported as out or doubtful.
Last checked 1 h ago.
Atletico Madrid
- O. VargasOutInactive
- R. MendozaOutInactive
Manchester United
- B. SeskoOutLeg Injury
- M. de LigtOutBack Injury
- M. UgarteOutKnee Injury
- N. MazraouiOutInjury
- P. DorguOutHamstring Injury
- T. HeatonOutAbdominal strain
A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.
Starting lineupsnot received
Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.
This season26th v 4th
This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.
Atletico Madrid
26th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 2
Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 2)
Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games
Last five league games L (most recent last)
Manchester United
4th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 4, conceded 0
Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 4, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)
Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 1 games
Last five league games W (most recent last)
Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.
All markets20 Kalshi contracts
Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.
Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes)52%51%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Manchester United to win (90 minutes)27%26%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Draw (90 minutes)21%25%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)—97%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—85%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—66%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)—43%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)—25%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)—12%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Both teams to score (90 minutes)—66%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—28%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Atletico Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—13%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—11%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—5%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)—87%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—59%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—31%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Manchester United over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)—76%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Manchester United over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—41%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Manchester United over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—17%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence
Model snapshot
- Probabilities
- home 51.8% · draw 21.3% · away 26.9%
- Expected goals
- 2.06 – 1.45
- Atletico Madrid eligible matches
- 37 (35 with xG)
- Manchester United eligible matches
- 7 (6 with xG)
- Competition matches in the evidence set
- 518 by season 2023:124, 2024:188, 2025:188, 2026:18
- xG weight
- 0.5
- Cutoff
- 07/10/2026, 19:52:04
- Maturity
- historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
- Flags
- thin evidence: away side has 7 eligible matches; away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
- draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
- xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
- Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
- evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (UEFA Champions League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
- historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
- Champions League snapshots carry 1X2 only: Phase 8A found over/under 2.5 NOT SUPPORTED and BTTS only encouraging on this competition (decision A applies to 1X2); results are the 90-minute score, extra time and shoot-outs never settle a market
- thin evidence: away side has 7 eligible matches
- away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
- xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
- draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
- UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only
Matches the model used (most recent first)
the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.
| Atletico Madrid | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sept | Liverpool | away | 1–2 | 0.91–1.62 | L |
| 5 May | Arsenal | away | 0–1 | 0.99–1.56 | L |
| 29 Apr | Arsenal | home | 1–1 | 2.21–1.51 | D |
| 14 Apr | Barcelona | home | 1–2 | 1.77–2.22 | L |
| 8 Apr | Barcelona | away | 2–0 | 0.44–1.10 | W |
| 18 Mar | Tottenham | away | 2–3 | 1.04–2.45 | L |
| Manchester United | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sept | Sabah FA | home | 4–0 | — | W |
| 12 Dec | Bayern München | home | 0–1 | 0.25–1.16 | L |
| 29 Nov | Galatasaray | away | 3–3 | 1.64–1.47 | D |
| 8 Nov | FC Copenhagen | away | 3–4 | 3.02–2.25 | L |
| 24 Oct | FC Copenhagen | home | 1–0 | 1.69–2.22 | W |
| 3 Oct | Galatasaray | home | 2–3 | 2.10–2.64 | L |
Kalshi contracts and the model
20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).
| Both teams to score | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13ATMMUN-BTTS | — | 65.5% | — | 0.65 / 0.66 | 0.35 | 2,005 / 1,799 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Match winner | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM | 51.8% | 50.5% | +1.3 pts | 0.50 / 0.51 | 0.50 | 98,099 / 7,463 | Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Manchester United to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN | 26.9% | 25.5% | +1.4 pts | 0.25 / 0.26 | 0.75 | 669 / 17,852 | Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Draw | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-TIE | 21.3% | 24.5% | −3.2 pts | 0.24 / 0.25 | 0.76 | 120,290 / 3,299 | Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Winning margin | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM2 | — | 28.0% | — | 0.27 / 0.29 | 0.73 | 7,550 / 7,351 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Atletico Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM3 | — | 13.0% | — | 0.12 / 0.14 | 0.88 | 3,112 / 9,024 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN2 | — | 10.5% | — | 0.10 / 0.11 | 0.90 | 1,123 / 8,968 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN3 | — | 4.5% | — | 0.04 / 0.05 | 0.96 | 19,252 / 1 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Team goals | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM1 | — | 86.5% | — | 0.85 / 0.88 | 0.15 | 5 / 85 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM2 | — | 58.5% | — | 0.57 / 0.60 | 0.43 | 8,711 / 1 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM3 | — | 31.0% | — | 0.30 / 0.32 | 0.70 | 412 / 2 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Manchester United over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN1 | — | 76.0% | — | 0.74 / 0.78 | 0.26 | 3,672 / 9,062 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Manchester United over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN2 | — | 40.5% | — | 0.39 / 0.42 | 0.61 | 1,427 / 461 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Manchester United over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN3 | — | 16.5% | — | 0.15 / 0.18 | 0.85 | 754 / 3 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Total goals | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-1 | — | 96.5% | — | 0.96 / 0.97 | 0.04 | 3,673 / 1,505 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-2 | — | 85.0% | — | 0.84 / 0.86 | 0.16 | 9,121 / 4,973 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-3 | — | 65.5% | — | 0.65 / 0.66 | 0.35 | 5,005 / 663 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-4 | — | 42.5% | — | 0.42 / 0.43 | 0.58 | 2,118 / 3,622 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-5 | — | 24.5% | — | 0.24 / 0.25 | 0.76 | 3,309 / 0 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
| Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ATMMUN-6 | — | 11.5% | — | 0.11 / 0.12 | 0.89 | 1,151 / 5,127 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago |
Bookmaker consensus
median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:05:58.
| Match result | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | 48.0% | 45.9% – 49.3% | 50.9% | 1.97 | 10 | 51.8% | +3.8 pts |
| 1x2:draw | 24.6% | 24.0% – 25.9% | 25.6% | 3.90 | 10 | 21.3% | −3.4 pts |
| 1x2:away | 27.5% | 26.0% – 28.3% | 28.6% | 3.50 | 10 | 26.9% | −0.6 pts |
10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:51.
| Total goals, 2.5 line | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| total_goals:over:2.5 | 63.6% | 62.8% – 65.2% | 68.5% | 1.46 | 7 | — | — |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | 36.4% | 34.8% – 37.2% | 38.2% | 2.62 | 7 | — | — |
7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:51. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only
Every bookmaker page used (17)
| Bookmaker | Market | Odds | Observed | Provider stamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | Match winner | away 3.42 · draw 3.92 · home 2.02 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betfair | Match winner | away 3.70 · draw 3.90 · home 1.95 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Pinnacle | Match winner | away 3.55 · draw 4.03 · home 1.98 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| SBO | Match winner | away 3.13 · draw 3.42 · home 1.93 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| William Hill | Match winner | away 3.30 · draw 3.75 · home 1.95 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Bet365 | Match winner | away 3.60 · draw 3.75 · home 1.91 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Dafabet | Match winner | away 3.50 · draw 3.90 · home 2.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| 1xBet | Match winner | away 3.51 · draw 4.03 · home 2.07 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betano | Match winner | away 3.50 · draw 3.85 · home 1.98 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| BetVictor | Match winner | away 3.40 · draw 3.90 · home 1.93 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Marathonbet | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.51 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betfair | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.63 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Pinnacle | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.66 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Bet365 | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.62 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| 1xBet | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.51 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betano | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.47 · under 2.5 2.75 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| BetVictor | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.46 · under 2.5 2.47 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
Sports evidence trail
availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:05:58.
| Dataset | State | Observed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Injuries | ok | 11/10/2026, 19:41:53 (Last checked 1 h ago) | fresh |
| Lineups | not_observed | — | before the window |
| Standings | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 19 h ago) | fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026 |
| Season statistics · Atletico Madrid | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:35 (Last checked 19 h ago) | fresh |
| Season statistics · Manchester United | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:25 (Last checked 19 h ago) | fresh |
Every stored market probability of the snapshot
Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.
| Key | Probability | Support | Historical evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | 51.8% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:draw | 21.3% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:away | 26.9% | supported | primary_target |
Snapshot 178 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:05:58