UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT

GalatasarayvBarcelona

Galatasaray

25%

Draw

20%

Barcelona

55%

Got%OnIt gives Barcelona a 55% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Galatasaray and 2.3 for Barcelona.
Galatasaray won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.3 a game.
Barcelona won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.3 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Galatasaray are 30th of 36 after 1 games; Barcelona are 3rd.
Galatasaray have won 0 and lost 1; Barcelona have won 1 and lost 0.

Recent matches the model used

Galatasaray

L1–3at Sporting CP9 Sept
L0–4at Liverpool18 Mar
W1–0v Liverpool10 Mar
L0–3at Juventus25 Feb
W5–2v Juventus17 Feb
L0–2at Manchester City28 Jan

Barcelona

W5–1v Feyenoord9 Sept
W2–1at Atletico Madrid14 Apr
L0–2v Atletico Madrid8 Apr
W7–2v Newcastle18 Mar
D1–1at Newcastle10 Mar
W4–1v FC Copenhagen28 Jan

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT (evidence cutoff Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT; snapshot 180, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelWed 7 Oct, 19:23 PDT518 finished UEFA Champions League matches (498 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-09-10T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Barcelona)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Galatasaray)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionfixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 19:32 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationGalatasaray 2 absent regulars · Barcelona 3.1 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Galatasaray

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Lille +7.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctUCLA Lille+7.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Wed 9 Sept (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 13 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: V. Osimhen (F) — reason unknown; M. Lemina (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Galatasaray: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
L. Sane · regular	M	0	—
E. Elmali	D	90	0' Türkiye, 11 d before; 90' Türkiye, 8 d before
I. Jakobs · regular	D	0	—
R. Sallai · regular	D	0	—
Y. Akgun	M	132	44' Türkiye, 11 d before; 88' Türkiye, 8 d before
Gabriel Sara · regular	M	0	—
D. Sanchez · regular	D	0	—
B. Yilmaz · regular	F	46	46' Türkiye, 11 d before
A. Batrakov	M	0	—
U. Cakir · regular	G	180	90' Türkiye, 11 d before; 90' Türkiye, 8 d before
L. Torreira · regular	M	0	—

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 716 minutes — E. Elmali (0' Türkiye, 11 d before; 90' Türkiye, 8 d before); D. Gul (23' Türkiye, 11 d before; 2' Türkiye, 8 d before); Y. Akgun (44' Türkiye, 11 d before; 88' Türkiye, 8 d before); R. Leao (63' Portugal, 12 d before; 0' Portugal, 9 d before); A. Bardakci (90' Türkiye, 11 d before; 90' Türkiye, 8 d before); B. Yilmaz (46' Türkiye, 11 d before); U. Cakir (90' Türkiye, 11 d before; 90' Türkiye, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Barcelona

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Real Betis +3.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Wed 16 SeptLLH Racing SantanderW 7–2counted as workload
Sat 19 SeptLLA SevillaW 3–1counted as workload
Sat 10 OctLLH GetafeW 3–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 17 OctLLA Real Betis+3.9 d
Tue 20 OctUCLA Paris Saint Germain+7 d
Sun 25 OctLLH Real Madrid+12 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 63 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Raphinha (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 7 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.5 CONFIRMED

Barcelona: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
A. Gordon	F	71	141	70' England, 10.1 d before; 0' England, 7 d before
Gabriel Jesus	F	82	82	—
Lamine Yamal · regular	F	90	214	46' Spain, 10 d before; 78' Spain, 7 d before
Dani Olmo	M	61	199	67' Spain, 10 d before; 71' Spain, 7 d before
Eric García · regular	D	90	90	—
J. Koundé	D	90	180	0' France, 11 d before; 90' France, 8 d before
Joan García · regular	G	90	90	—
Gerard Martín · regular	D	90	90	—
X. Espart	D	90	90	—
Rodri	M	71	219	77' Spain, 10 d before; 71' Spain, 7 d before
Gavi	M	61	61	—

International duty in 14 days: 10 players, 1162 minutes — A. Gordon (70' England, 10.1 d before; 0' England, 7 d before); Lamine Yamal (46' Spain, 10 d before; 78' Spain, 7 d before); Dani Olmo (67' Spain, 10 d before; 71' Spain, 7 d before); J. Koundé (0' France, 11 d before; 90' France, 8 d before); Rodri (77' Spain, 10 d before; 71' Spain, 7 d before); Fermín (23' Spain, 10 d before; 19' Spain, 7 d before); Pau Cubarsí Paredes (90' Spain, 7 d before); Pedri (67' Spain, 10 d before; 87' Spain, 7 d before); D. Livaković (90' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before); João Cancelo (63' Portugal, 12 d before; 63' Portugal, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Galatasaray

A. Guner · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
A. Unyay · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
A. Yilmaz · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
E. Aydin · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
G. Guvenc · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
K. Ayhan · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
K. Karatas · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
W. Singo · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Questionable

Barcelona

A. Christensen · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
F. de Jong · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
R. Bardghji · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
Raphinha · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Galatasaray	25%	11%	10%
Draw	20%	14%	13%
Barcelona	55%	74%	78%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 33 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Barcelona a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (55% vs 78%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Galatasaray

Galatasaray: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.1 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 30%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.

L1–3at Sporting CP9 Sept · in model evidence
L0–4at Liverpool18 Mar · in model evidence
W1–0v Liverpool10 Mar · in model evidence
L0–3at Juventus25 Feb · in model evidence
W5–2v Juventus17 Feb · in model evidence
L0–2at Manchester City28 Jan · in model evidence

Barcelona

Barcelona: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.8 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.

W5–1v Feyenoord9 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1at Atletico Madrid14 Apr · in model evidence
L0–2v Atletico Madrid8 Apr · in model evidence
W7–2v Newcastle18 Mar · in model evidence
D1–1at Newcastle10 Mar · in model evidence
W4–1v FC Copenhagen28 Jan · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	2%
1 goal	8%
2 goals	16%
3 goals	20%
4 goals	19%
5 goals	15%
6 or more	19%
Over 1.5	—
Over 2.5	—
Over 3.5	—
Both teams score	—

Galatasaray

Expected goals	1.54
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	10%

Barcelona

Expected goals	2.29
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	21%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability12 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

12 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 23 min ago.

Galatasaray

A. GunerOutOff the roster
A. UnyayOutOff the roster
A. YilmazOutOff the roster
E. AydinOutOff the roster
G. GuvencOutMuscle Injury
K. AyhanOutOff the roster
K. KaratasOutOff the roster
W. SingoDoubtfulThigh Injury

Barcelona

A. ChristensenOutMuscle Injury
F. de JongOutKnee Injury
R. BardghjiOutKnee Injury
RaphinhaOutMuscle Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season30th v 3rd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Galatasaray

30th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 3

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Barcelona

3rd of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 5, conceded 1

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Barcelona to win (90 minutes)

55%

78%

YES on Barcelona to WinBarcelona wins in 90 minutes

55%78¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 187,598 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Galatasaray to win (90 minutes)

25%

10%

YES on Galatasaray to WinGalatasaray wins in 90 minutes

25%10¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 139 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

20%

13%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

20%13¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 125,990 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawGalatasaray or Barcelona wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

80%88¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,826 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Barcelona to WinGalatasaray wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

45%23¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 27,638 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Galatasaray to WinBarcelona wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

75%91¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 27,140 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

99%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

—99¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 430 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

—2¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,151 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

94%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

—94¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,623 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

—7¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 670 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

82%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

—82¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,679 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

—19¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 998 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

64%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

—64¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,223 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

—37¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

44%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

—44¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,365 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

—57¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,284 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

26%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

—26¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,350 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

—75¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,274 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

—

67%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

—67¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 7,265 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

—34¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 100 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Winning margin

Barcelona to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

59%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Barcelona to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBarcelona wins by 2 goals or more

—59¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 41,486 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Barcelona to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsGalatasaray wins or the match is drawn, or Barcelona wins by 1 goal · Barcelona not by 2+ goals

—42¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,854 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Barcelona to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

39%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Barcelona to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBarcelona wins by 3 goals or more

—39¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 43,989 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Barcelona to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsGalatasaray wins or the match is drawn, or Barcelona wins by 2 goals or fewer · Barcelona not by 3+ goals

—62¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,473 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Galatasaray to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Galatasaray to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsGalatasaray wins by 2 goals or more

—4¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,200 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Galatasaray to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBarcelona wins or the match is drawn, or Galatasaray wins by 1 goal · Galatasaray not by 2+ goals

—97¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,607 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Galatasaray to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition · No Kalshi quote

YES on Galatasaray to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsGalatasaray wins by 3 goals or more

—2¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,451 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Galatasaray to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBarcelona wins or the match is drawn, or Galatasaray wins by 2 goals or fewer · Galatasaray not by 3+ goals

——

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy

Team goals

Barcelona over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

96%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Barcelona Over 0.5 GoalsBarcelona scores 1 goal or more

—97¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Barcelona Over 0.5 GoalsBarcelona does not score · Barcelona under 0.5 goals

—5¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 41 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Barcelona over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

83%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Barcelona Over 1.5 GoalsBarcelona scores 2 goals or more

—84¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 718 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Barcelona Over 1.5 GoalsBarcelona scores 1 goal or fewer · Barcelona under 1.5 goals

—18¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 94 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Barcelona over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

62%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Barcelona Over 2.5 GoalsBarcelona scores 3 goals or more

—63¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,019 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Barcelona Over 2.5 GoalsBarcelona scores 2 goals or fewer · Barcelona under 2.5 goals

—40¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Galatasaray over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

70%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Galatasaray Over 0.5 GoalsGalatasaray scores 1 goal or more

—71¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,050 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Galatasaray Over 0.5 GoalsGalatasaray does not score · Galatasaray under 0.5 goals

—32¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,129 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Galatasaray over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

33%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Galatasaray Over 1.5 GoalsGalatasaray scores 2 goals or more

—35¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,080 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Galatasaray Over 1.5 GoalsGalatasaray scores 1 goal or fewer · Galatasaray under 1.5 goals

—69¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,112 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Galatasaray over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

13%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Galatasaray Over 2.5 GoalsGalatasaray scores 3 goals or more

—13¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 833 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Galatasaray Over 2.5 GoalsGalatasaray scores 2 goals or fewer · Galatasaray under 2.5 goals

—88¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 25.5% · draw 19.9% · away 54.6%
Expected goals: 1.54 – 2.29
Galatasaray eligible matches: 19 (18 with xG)
Barcelona eligible matches: 37 (35 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 518 by season 2023:124, 2024:188, 2025:188, 2026:18
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 07/10/2026, 19:52:04
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (UEFA Champions League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
Champions League snapshots carry 1X2 only: Phase 8A found over/under 2.5 NOT SUPPORTED and BTTS only encouraging on this competition (decision A applies to 1X2); results are the 90-minute score, extra time and shoot-outs never settle a market
xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's away probability is 23% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's home probability is 16% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's draw probability is 7% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Galatasaray	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
9 Sept	Sporting CP	away	1–3	1.23–1.75	L
18 Mar	Liverpool	away	0–4	0.18–4.88	L
10 Mar	Liverpool	home	1–0	1.34–1.31	W
25 Feb	Juventus	away	0–3	—	L
17 Feb	Juventus	home	5–2	2.92–1.13	W
28 Jan	Manchester City	away	0–2	0.26–1.77	L

Barcelona	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
9 Sept	Feyenoord	home	5–1	—	W
14 Apr	Atletico Madrid	away	2–1	2.22–1.77	W
8 Apr	Atletico Madrid	home	0–2	1.10–0.44	L
18 Mar	Newcastle	home	7–2	4.29–1.52	W
10 Mar	Newcastle	away	1–1	1.42–1.30	D
28 Jan	FC Copenhagen	home	4–1	3.18–1.06	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13GALBAR-BTTS	—	66.5%	—	0.66 / 0.67	0.34	7,265 / 100	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Barcelona to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR	54.6%	77.5%	−22.9 pts	0.77 / 0.78	0.23	187,598 / 27,638	Comparable seen 33 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Galatasaray to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL	25.5%	9.5%	+16.0 pts	0.09 / 0.10	0.91	139 / 27,140	Comparable seen 33 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-TIE	19.9%	12.5%	+7.4 pts	0.12 / 0.13	0.88	125,990 / 2,826	Comparable seen 33 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Barcelona to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR2	—	58.5%	—	0.58 / 0.59	0.42	41,486 / 9,854	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Barcelona to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR3	—	38.5%	—	0.38 / 0.39	0.62	43,989 / 1,473	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Galatasaray to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL2	—	3.5%	—	0.03 / 0.04	0.97	1,200 / 2,607	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Galatasaray to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL3	—	—	—	— / 0.02	—	2,451 / 0	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago

Team goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Barcelona over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR1	—	96.0%	—	0.95 / 0.97	0.05	4 / 41	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Barcelona over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR2	—	83.0%	—	0.82 / 0.84	0.18	718 / 94	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Barcelona over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR3	—	61.5%	—	0.60 / 0.63	0.40	1,019 / 125	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Galatasaray over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL1	—	69.5%	—	0.68 / 0.71	0.32	1,050 / 8,129	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Galatasaray over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL2	—	33.0%	—	0.31 / 0.35	0.69	1,080 / 9,112	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Galatasaray over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL3	—	12.5%	—	0.12 / 0.13	0.88	833 / 4	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-1	—	98.5%	—	0.98 / 0.99	0.02	430 / 2,151	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-2	—	93.5%	—	0.93 / 0.94	0.07	1,623 / 670	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-3	—	81.5%	—	0.81 / 0.82	0.19	5,679 / 998	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-4	—	63.5%	—	0.63 / 0.64	0.37	5,223 / 363	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-5	—	43.5%	—	0.43 / 0.44	0.57	2,365 / 6,284	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13GALBAR-6	—	25.5%	—	0.25 / 0.26	0.75	1,350 / 6,274	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 33 min ago

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:05:00.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	11.5%	10.5% – 14.0%	12.0%	8.32	10	25.5%	+14.0 pts
1x2:draw	14.3%	13.5% – 15.9%	15.2%	6.60	10	19.9%	+5.6 pts
1x2:away	74.1%	70.2% – 75.9%	78.1%	1.28	10	54.6%	−19.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:51.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	78.5%	78.1% – 79.7%	84.7%	1.18	6	—	—
total_goals:under:2.5	21.5%	20.3% – 21.9%	22.6%	4.42	6	—	—

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:52. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (16)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 1.31 · draw 6.20 · home 8.40	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betfair	Match winner	away 1.25 · draw 7.00 · home 9.00	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 1.28 · draw 7.03 · home 8.14	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBO	Match winner	away 1.27 · draw 5.61 · home 6.38	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
William Hill	Match winner	away 1.30 · draw 6.00 · home 7.50	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365	Match winner	away 1.25 · draw 7.00 · home 8.50	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Dafabet	Match winner	away 1.30 · draw 6.80 · home 8.00	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBet	Match winner	away 1.34 · draw 6.44 · home 8.70	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betano	Match winner	away 1.28 · draw 6.70 · home 8.25	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictor	Match winner	away 1.25 · draw 6.50 · home 8.50	11/10/2026, 09:30:51	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.18 · under 2.5 4.20	11/10/2026, 09:30:52	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.18 · under 2.5 4.50	11/10/2026, 09:30:52	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.20 · under 2.5 4.50	11/10/2026, 09:30:52	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.18 · under 2.5 4.20	11/10/2026, 09:30:52	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.22 · under 2.5 4.35	11/10/2026, 09:30:52	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.17 · under 2.5 4.60	11/10/2026, 09:30:52	11/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:05:00.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	ok	11/10/2026, 19:41:54 (Last checked 23 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Galatasaray	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:40 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Barcelona	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:34 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	25.5%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	19.9%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	54.6%	supported	primary_target

Snapshot 180 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:05:00